Alternate history: PRH-Solarian War

Basically, to win, Haven MUST take Manticore via coup de main. The only really good time to do this hat I can think of is before the war starts.

And that is the PRN 'way of war'. Sudden overwhelming strikes out of the blue. Maybe some nibbling away at allies to reduce the SKM forces at Manticore, but I'd try to do it with just disinformation and 'leaks', no actual forces commited.

And then one day 90% of the entire PRN crosses the wall and heads directly for Manticore. Two hours to win or lose the war.

But the Peeps were not willing to take that risk. Instead they committed fighting a long war of attrition, which they had no experience with and their military was not designed or trained for. And they lost.

But if the Peeps had started to win, do you think that the SKM isn't going to consider all their options instead of just waiting for the axe to fall?

Of course they are. And they have a lot of money and some important friends who know people with lots of guns.

kzt wrote:But the Peeps were not willing to take that risk. Instead they committed fighting a long war of attrition, which they had no experience with and their military was not designed or trained for. And they lost.

Well, that wasn't their first option (q.v. "Short Victorious War"). But you're right, once the their usual way failed, they didn't know how to prosecute the war. The Pierre Coup and the purge of the officer ranks did not help. It's possible that the old, experienced officer corp could have adapted in time and done exactly what you said.

After all, we know that the war basically stalemated from 1907 to 1911, with the liberation of Trevor's Star. And this only happened after the huge successes at the beginning of the war, which the PN responded with by executing flag officers. So what if they hadn't and instead had learned from their mistakes?

But if the Peeps had started to win, do you think that the SKM isn't going to consider all their options instead of just waiting for the axe to fall?

Of course they are. And they have a lot of money and some important friends who know people with lots of guns.

Another thing I was thinking of is what the Andermani would do at that point. They were neutral due to realpolitik -- they didn't want the Peeps to come at them. That was fine while the MA was winning or at worst holding the Peeps back. But if the situation deteriorated, it's possible the Andermani would enter the war on the MA side. It would be their best chance of stopping the Peeps short of their borders. If the PRH had had time to fully absorb the SKM and the PN got the RMN goodies that the Andermani intelligence was aware of and what they speculated on, the Empire might find itself unable to resist.

An alliance with the Andermani, like in the Second War, would have been far preferable to Manticore. They'd retain their independence. A second option would be to get Beowulf on their side, without the rest of the League. But I'm not sure this is possible: the BSDF shouldn't get itself involved with foreign affairs. That might be unconstitutional, even.

League involvement might have been necessary if all else failed. But the later that happened, the bigger concessions the SKM would need to make. Worse, they'd find at the worst time possible that the SLN was obsolete and needed a massive upgrade.

kzt wrote: But it’s generally a bad plan to assume that your enemy will flee when you show up. You probably have to have clear and uncontested control of the WHJ for a few days, before you can assume you got all the mines, before its usable. So it’s a pretty high risk plan unless you know a whole lot about the Peep deployment and general willingness to fight to the death over somone elses system.

It has less risk then an attack on the Haven System or New Berlin. IN Manticore if you take the junction you have immediate(Within a few days to a few weeks not take the junction and immediately send the fleet through) reinforcements and a safe rear area to send your damaged ships for repairs. You have the entire Core and shell industry on the other side of the junction and best of all you have a threat to the Republic which they cannot ignore but at the same time they cannot bring their entire force to bear. Attack on the Haven system still gives a threat they cannot ignore but its by a fleet that is battered and potentially low on munitions and supplies and tied down to a system without prospects of quick reinforcements. They are tied down to the system they captured because chances are they take damage to a lot of ships, if they want to retreat they have to abandon their damaged ships.

If the SLN hits Haven, and is defeated they have to go home the long way, same applies if they attack the junction. But if they are successful they are still months or years from help, during which time the now damaged fleet is exposed to the rest of the alliance due to the alliance having internal lines of communication. The fleet can go to Haven, hit the system and wipe away capital fleet, then they are stuck in system awaiting reinforcements or repairs to be able to withdraw.

So the SLN makes the decision to invade Haven system, they send the orders and it takes the SLN Fleet 12 months to get to Haven, this includes getting the orders, consolidating the fleet in one location, waiting for stragglers, getting an adequate fleet train, supplies, munitions, getting all of the ships up to an actual fighting shape etc... and then traveling to the target.

Defeat brings the exact same consequences for the SLN no matter the target, whatever is left of the offensive fleet is now between 400 and 600 LY away from the nearest bases in the core, months away from help and months away from the League even knowing there is a problem.


Victory on the other hand is where the difference comes into play, with an attack on the Haven system you have the exact same consequences as a defeat, it is months or years before you get help weather defeated or victorious.

In an attack on the MWHJ, you go in clear the junction and within a few days to a few weeks you have reinforcements, shipyards, munitions and you free up the limited fleet train of the SLN.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:

Of course, that doesn't stop any CO from scuttling their command anyway, but then they could forfeit the protections as prisoners of war under the Deneb Accords. And while being treated as POWs by the PN may not have been that great, it probably beat the certainty of being treated as a common criminal by InSec.

Historical note: Admiral Ludwig von Reuter scuttled his ships at Scapa Flow after they had been surrendered to the World War I Allies and he doesn't seem to have been prosecuted for it. Wikipedia even says that he and his sailors were treated as POWs because they broke the terms of the armistice. If I understand the details right, the Armistice ceased hostilities but did not officially make Germany surrender, so those ships still belonged to the Germany Navy at the moment of scuttling (no longer Imperial). The wording on Wikipedia may not be precise either that the ships had been surrendered, as it also uses the term "interned". But I think that if von Reuter had done the scuttling after the Treaty of Versailles went into effect, it's possible he'd have been prosecuted as a criminal for destroying Allied property.

Difference between the Allies of WW1 and Haven is that Haven doesn't really care what has to be done, you destroy the forts and Manticore suffers. Haven can go and kill 100,000 people for every fort that is scuttled and they wont bat an eye. The Allies on the other hand wouldn't have gone into Germany to kill a bunch of civilians for every ship scuttled and more than that they didn't really need those ships so they can put a price and force Germany to pay financially long term for scuttling the ships and leave it at that.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:
Good point. The Alliance wouldn't be able to keep the RMN crews on them. They might develop a serious case of SSS when the SLN came calling -- Stormtrooper Shooting Syndrome.

That means finding and training crews to operate Manticoran equipment, effectively.

And unless the SLN is in the Haven Sector in force at the beginning of hostilities they would have enough time to strip their own forts of manpower, call up reservists since after all weren't they using conscripts if I remember correctly? Yeah it will make them significantly less effective but you can get the manpower necessary and drill them mercilessly. I'm going to make a guess that Barnette wasn't the only system in The republic with Forts, forts that are likely not needed at this point. There could be dozens of systems with anywhere from 1-2 forts and 30-40 forts.

RMN ships are very difficult for Peeps to maintain. They assume a much deeper technical education among ratings than most senior PRN NCOs had. Much more maint, to a much deeper level, was intended to be routinely done by RMN crews on-station than by PRN doctrine.

Not to mention that I think they use a different written language, and I would tend to doubt the RMN has translated much of their technical documentation into French or even has any other language as an option on consoles, etc.

So sure, in theory. In practice perhaps not so much.

kzt wrote:It’s the fallback option of the SKM. Join up with Beowulf. Become part of the SL, This has severe impact on the SKM government leadership, but they don’t get shot. Which certainly has advantages when compared to the alternative.

And I’d expect that somehow Beowulf might just have a SLN detachment visiting anout that time.

What would be the impact? Aside from having to give a portion of the junction fees to the League. Each member system is essentially an independent nation already, they have the right to have a military of their own, they can conduct their own relations with other nations , yeah its not true independence but its a hell of a lot closer than what the People's Republic would give them.

tlb wrote:Tried to straighten out the quotes.

In any of these scenarios; where would the stories about Honor be set? Presumably her mother would have married a Solarian Marine? So would Honor be a a Solarian Frontier Fleet officer or a Gendarme or an officer in the Beowulf Biological Survey? I think the last is most possible, as she could fight the slave trade.

Any of these scenarios would happen well after she is born. War between SKM and the Rebpulic starts to go in favour of the republic and the SKM forms a union with Beowulf.

It's kind of like be conquered by the Republic or join the League, there is no third option.

Well, to join the SL as a separate star nation requires a vote by the assembly iirc. So what the SKM is doing is becoming part of Beowulf. And my guess is the Beowulf won’t go that far out on a limb for a handshake.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:
Thanks, I was getting confused.

In this timeline, if the war had been deteriorating for Manticore and its allies for some time, would they have sought to join the League to avoid being taken over by the Peeps? If this fallback strategy is likely, then the timeline couldn't have happened as in the OP.

Unless Parnell managed to take Manticore by surprise, with his own version of Beatrice. Suppose White Haven is out with Third Fleet and Sixth Fleet trying to liberate Trevor's Star, then there's only Home Fleet in Manticore to defend it. If Manticore falls quickly, before Beowulf can respond, game over.

I think that would always be a concern for Haven, they may have ended up capturing Manticore but losing the junction. If the war ends with Manticore capitulating but the junction forts being intact for the time being they can have a back up plan where if the capital falls they suddenly become BSDF Forts, if Beowulf claims the junction and the forts and Haven decides to fight them that's how the war would start, it would be a terrible start for Haven because now they have a fortified system in their republic with a WH directly to the enemy industrial heartland and their 2,000 SD's. No IAN so they are automatically down the equivalent of 435 SLN SD's. Beowulf now has hundreds of thousands of RMN personnel from the forts as well as whoever managed to escape in civilian shipping and whatever RMN warships managed to escape as well. The SKM has a hell of a lot of resources in the League that they can use to fund their war of liberation. Basically unless there is a miracle Haven is screwed...royally screwed and the SKM becomes a League member when they form a union with Beowulf.