GA-League War

ThinksMarkedly wrote:Any seceding system that has the finances to buy Manticoran or Havenite tech will do so, not buy obsolescent SLN crap. Everyone knows they're obsolete. So the SLN would need to offer them for barely above scrap metal value, like High Ridge did.

There's also a good reason not to arm the seceding systems, especially those angry with the central government: those obsolete ships may be no match for modern GA tech, but they are still a match to everyone else, including current SLN hardware. The SLN shouldn't sell them until they have their own SD(P)s with much upgraded missile defence in commission, and probably lots of them (minimum 400). You shouldn't arm the people who are angry with you with tools that could beat you.

At best, they could sell the most obsolete of the Reserve, the units still equipped with shotguns. If they didn't get destroyed by Honor in the Battle of Sol (in the real or this alternate timeline). In fact, if they sell "as-is, some assembly required", the system acquiring them might sink more money in de-mothballing them than they're worth. But I don't know how many of those ships there are: the SLN didn't upgrade all ships all the time, but neither were they stupid to leave too many un-upgraded.

If I were a core/shell world leader I wouldn't mind buying an obsolete SLN SD or BC or CA/CL/DD etc... because once my shiny new ships come in from the GA I can build up a military shipyard to maintain my new fleet by upgrading the old ships to a modern standard, by the time you are done upgrading all of them the new fleet would be starting a repair/refit cycle that will maintain your shipyards.

Yeah its a waste of money to upgrade and refit ships that you don't intent to keep and cant really upgrade to a combat worthy level but in the meantime you are building your domestic ship building skills and can maintain your newly created system fleet without having to send your ships to someone else for maintenance.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:
If it's a legitimate acquisition, above board and all, then that's what I am saying sets off an arms race. So long as no one has an SD, no one needs an SD to protect against.

How do you keep independent nations from buying SD’s? They are independent, if the League wont sell them, and the GA wont sell them they will invest in their own shipyards and R and D. Pool resources with neighbours, form bigger nations for protection and you get the arms race anyway.

King Roger decided to arm against a very aggressively expansionist neighbour that had been conquering systems for a couple of decades and did have hundreds of SDs. In fact, that was the second largest navy in the known Galaxy. That's not a situation that's going to be seen often.

If the League ends up with 100+ Successor states from 1 system nations to large multi system nations what stops some nation from starting to arm themselves? If I were a leader of a successor state I would most definitely build up to SD’s if I had the means, if I had access to trained manpower(SDF, current/former SLN members, mercenaries etc…) I would start from what I could operate and steadily expand my fleet until I have SD(P)’s and I would get as many SD(P)’s as I can comfortably operate long term without breaking the bank. For core nations similar to Beowulf that seems to be around 30 SD’s.

[quote[I can see some neighbours of Mannerheim and Maya deciding that since those have SDs, they should too.[/quote] I can see their neighbours arming whether they had SD’s or not.

Anyway, I agree that the systems will think they're worth an SD, for some reason. What I am saying is that the SLN should not part with theirs in spring-cleaning sales. Flooding the known Galaxy with SDs is recipe for trouble and the SLN knows it. By not selling at cut-throat rates, that already limits the number of governments that will have one. It also bottlenecks their acquisitions to the throughput that the shipyards can produce and the SLN can pay better to have the first run (if they don't invoke national security reasons).

If the League wont sell me an SD and the GA wont sell me an SD and I had the means to I would fortify my system as best as I can and invest as much as I can to build my own domestic shipyards and developing my own ships. It might take a newly independent core/shell world 20+ years to get from I need SD’s to laying down the first one but once done they wont have another nations telling them what they can or cant have.



More importantly is that if the SLN maintains SD’s, everyone else will want to maintain SD’s. They may not be able to individually fight off the SLN but 500 systems with their own SD’s is a big enough deterrent to keep the League from trying to force its wayward members back into the fold.

Sigs wrote:How do you keep independent nations from buying SD’s? They are independent, if the League wont sell them, and the GA wont sell them they will invest in their own shipyards and R and D. Pool resources with neighbours, form bigger nations for protection and you get the arms race anyway.

You don't stop them from R&D. But research, development and building your first R&D is an affair measured in years: just look at how long it too the Carlucci Industries to get to the first waller for Maya. The deal was struck in 1919 and by 1923 they hadn't entered service yet. And this was in Erewhon, that did have a navy, did operate DNs and old Manticoran SDs and did receive some help from the Grantville government to revert some of the damage from the High Ridge government.

If they instead go straight for SDs, they'll be very crappy versions that a pre-war Reliant-class or Warlord-class BC could take, probably even a Nevada. Or a modern export version of a CA, which the neighbour may have bought.

Bootstrapping a naval industry takes decades.

And that's fine. Good for them to invest in local industries. And good for them if they follow the playbook to build in steps: first DDs, then cruisers, then BC and only after that, wallers.

If the League ends up with 100+ Successor states from 1 system nations to large multi system nations what stops some nation from starting to arm themselves? If I were a leader of a successor state I would most definitely build up to SD’s if I had the means, if I had access to trained manpower(SDF, current/former SLN members, mercenaries etc…) I would start from what I could operate and steadily expand my fleet until I have SD(P)’s and I would get as many SD(P)’s as I can comfortably operate long term without breaking the bank. For core nations similar to Beowulf that seems to be around 30 SD’s.

That's a good point and it may happen. The question is how fast SDs end up in the hands of those regional governments. If they have to buy from the current producers or they try to develop from scratch, it's a gradual process, including the chance of some fiscal-conservative policy makers coming in and slashing the budget half-way in many sytems.

If the SLN does a fire sale, then many of them will have SDs inside of 5 years, with inexperienced crews.

As I said below, this is not about what those systems will do, it's about what the SLN will:

Anyway, I agree that the systems will think they're worth an SD, for some reason. What I am saying is that the SLN should not part with theirs in spring-cleaning sales. Flooding the known Galaxy with SDs is recipe for trouble and the SLN knows it. By not selling at cut-throat rates, that already limits the number of governments that will have one. It also bottlenecks their acquisitions to the throughput that the shipyards can produce and the SLN can pay better to have the first run (if they don't invoke national security reasons).

If the League wont sell me an SD and the GA wont sell me an SD and I had the means to I would fortify my system as best as I can and invest as much as I can to build my own domestic shipyards and developing my own ships. It might take a newly independent core/shell world 20+ years to get from I need SD’s to laying down the first one but once done they wont have another nations telling them what they can or cant have.



More importantly is that if the SLN maintains SD’s, everyone else will want to maintain SD’s. They may not be able to individually fight off the SLN but 500 systems with their own SD’s is a big enough deterrent to keep the League from trying to force its wayward members back into the fold.

The SLN is not going to give ships to the governments that want to use those ships as a deterrent against SLN aggression. That's my whole point: the SLN is better off scrapping and melting those ships than letting their former members or new Verge regional governments having them.

Unless they want to create a captive market. I'm not sure if this was your argument above, but it can be read that way. By selling those governments ships for less than the cost it would take them to R&D and build them themselves, those governments will not do the R&D. Later, when they want to upgrade to non-obsolete designs, they won't have a local industry to rely upon and will instead have to buy from an existing combine.

Sigs wrote:Because I doubt the SLN is built any different then most modern national militaries, so there are bound to be system with very few representatives in the SLN. There may be systems that are heavily represented in the SLN, SLN Marines and as such when they decide to form their own fleet they could offer their citizens a chance to serve in a navy to protect their home system. If a system has enough to form the core of a fleet then by all means grab whatever they can, but if they don't have many people or any people they have to start from scratch which means from the bottomed of the food chain (LAC's,DD's, CLs and then up). Example is Torch, they have an inventory of 5 CA's,6 CL's and 16 DD's but only operate a handful of FF's. It comes down to trained manpower, better to have a small professional navy that you expand consistently rather than a large, untrained navy that is more a danger to your people than an enemy.

By the way, that reminds me of an argument of mine a couple of threads ago. Even if the SLN decides not to sell ships, they could still end up in the hands of regional governments.

My argument was that an enterprising SLN Admiral, especially from the FF, might want to defect with his/her entire squadron to some Verge system. Offer them protection and the service of the crews and offer the crews nice bonuses and citizenship in the planet if they decide to stay. This can range from a mutually beneficial arrangement to warlord taking over the planet, though the GA has promised to hunt down FF ships out in the Verge as pirates so the latter is less likely.

But it's still unlikely that SDs will change hands this way. The FF did not have any and BF had not left the Core for decades prior to Crandall and Filareta. So most SDs are still in the Core. All those systems already have SDFs, though most don't have SDs. Still, I don't see seceding Core systems buying old SLN Reserve crap.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:
You don't stop them from R&D. But research, development and building your first R&D is an affair measured in years: just look at how long it too the Carlucci Industries to get to the first waller for Maya. The deal was struck in 1919 and by 1923 they hadn't entered service yet. And this was in Erewhon, that did have a navy, did operate DNs and old Manticoran SDs and did receive some help from the Grantville government to revert some of the damage from the High Ridge government.

It will take time, it might take dacades but I imagine most Core and Shell systems have access to the designs for all the SLN's ships. It's not great but it gives you a starting point to start building your industry from. Building what would quickly become an obsolete design is stupid unless you are doing it specifically to build experience and capability. Within 5 years you are just about done your first ships, within 10 you are building a couple of SD's a year and a dozen escorts. Within 20 years, through various means in addition to R&D you can have ships coming down the pipeline that can conceivably go against an similar class GA ship 2 to 1. By the time you have adequate level of technology to feel safe from the League and the GA you would have a large, professional, well trained navy and plenty of somewhat obsolete ships to keep any greedy neighbours from getting any ideas.

And that's fine. Good for them to invest in local industries. And good for them if they follow the playbook to build in steps: first DDs, then cruisers, then BC and only after that, wallers.

It's good and bad, its good because with substantial naval industry in dozens or hundreds of independent nations gives them the ability to build their own ships and quickly build up fleets to resist the League should they try to regain control. The bad on the other hand is that with dozens or hundreds of independent nations researching, designing and building their own ships many will be bound to start wars.

That's a good point and it may happen. The question is how fast SDs end up in the hands of those regional governments. If they have to buy from the current producers or they try to develop from scratch, it's a gradual process, including the chance of some fiscal-conservative policy makers coming in and slashing the budget half-way in many sytems.

System x secedes from the League, many members of the SLN from system x might want to leave so they can become part of system x's navy they just might come with their own ships. You don't need SD's right now if you don't have the crews, if you do have the crews, chances are the SD's cam with some of the crews.

The SLN is not going to give ships to the governments that want to use those ships as a deterrent against SLN aggression. That's my whole point: the SLN is better off scrapping and melting those ships than letting their former members or new Verge regional governments having them.

They may not have a choice, and they may not care. Those ships will be obsolete soon enough, for some of the core and shell they may be satisfied keeping those ships in service, for the verge an SD might represent an investment well outside their abilities especially since they are not needed right this minute.

Unless they want to create a captive market. I'm not sure if this was your argument above, but it can be read that way. By selling those governments ships for less than the cost it would take them to R&D and build them themselves, those governments will not do the R&D. Later, when they want to upgrade to non-obsolete designs, they won't have a local industry to rely upon and will instead have to buy from an existing combine.

Give them the shpips, sell them export version once the SLN catches up. This way the League always keeps their neighbours at a lower level than their own fleet and keeps them from trying to catch up because no matter how far behind they are there is always the chance that one or more of them will make breakthroughs that make the GA and SLN obsolete, they already went through one of those with the GA...last thing they want is round 2 with someone else. If the SLN makes serious changes in their intelligence and counter intelligence, research and development and training they can be a trailblazer soon enough, the last thing they want is having the chance that one or 2 of the hundreds of other nations will make a breakthrough to embarrass them and endanger them again better to keep them in your corner and dependant on you where if they piss you off you can cut weapons.

Another thing is that if the League is reduced to say 500 systems, selling ships and munitions to even half of the newly independent nations will keep the League's arms industry big enough that during war time they can increase their forces real quick. Plus having a proper reserve will only help the situation.

The SLN is not going to give ships to the governments that want to use those ships as a deterrent against SLN aggression. That's my whole point: the SLN is better off scrapping and melting those ships than letting their former members or new Verge regional governments having them.

We saw at Monica what can happen to ships that should be scrapped down.

Don´t forget corruption and pure economy in your calculation.

You want to build your own warships? Buy as much data on the black market or from ship yard employees who are willing to earn a good bonus to sell you the data.

Or simple: Offer a capable warship designer, system developer a better contract and you have the needed knowledge.

If I remember correct, there were aome observers at manticore who watch the war and the tactical and technological development. Not all sollies are dumb as bricks. All solarian shipyard CEO´s know that the wallers of the league are old. New tactics and technologies at the door of the league (the whormhole) could be a good argument for a modernisation of the solarian navy and for the shipyards a good buisness. If I was a solarian shipyard leader I would think about upgrade packages for existing solarian ships, new designs with existing technologies, R&D priorities.

If I was the CEO of Technodyne or another CEO of a warship manufactor, I would sell what I can to the one who pays the most.

Fighting from the league side:

First step is that you make it diplomatically clear any strikes or invasion against the core will constitute an Eridani violation in your eyes, and that this will result in massive planet killing retaliation - justification only has to be good enough to fig leaf. Combine that with an information campaign about neo-barbs looking to dismantle the EE and old terra if need be. Bluntly, the SLN has enough ships to ensure frac C missiles hit planets and since they are the guarantors of the EE to begin with, you enter a MAD scenario with the GA. Ultimately neither of you want to go “nuclear” because it’s horrible for both of you...but if it does go that way, you have a lot more real estate to lose.

But really, it’s about the threat. The threat keeps the GA on the frontier, and you can recover from any frontier defeat.

The rest is just using neo-barb aggression and threat to seize even more power for your directorates, then convincing the mandarins and trans solars that each of them stand to gain from massive war spending and modernization.

Tell your admirals to avoid decisive battle, accept trades that keep the Manties honest, and above all don’t lose the fleet.

Let that play out for a few years, possibly offering a concessionary peace. Use the defeat to shock the rest of the politicos and population into accepting your spend plan, your dominance having so clearly been based on false assumption.

Come back in ten years and curb stomp the GA.

That is not how the Edict works, and literally no one would accept that as an explanation for a massive escalation. The Edict’s provisions are to prevent mass civilian death. Simply attacking a system has never been remotely close to triggering it (which otherwise would have made the ENTIRE CONCEPT of interstellar warfare moot). There is no way to spin such an attack as violating the Edict, and trying to use that as a cover is absurd. That is such an absurd disconnect from reality that not even the presumed victims of the attack would go along with It. There are plenty of ways of whipping up patriotic fervor without dragging the Edict into it.

EDIT: Think of it this way: you’re suggesting the UK go nuclear on Argentina in response to the Falkland Islands being invaded. That is a ridiculously excessive escalation.

Potato wrote:That is not how the Edict works, and literally no one would accept that as an explanation for a massive escalation. The Edict’s provisions are to prevent mass civilian death. Simply attacking a system has never been remotely close to triggering it (which otherwise would have made the ENTIRE CONCEPT of interstellar warfare moot). There is no way to spin such an attack as violating the Edict, and trying to use that as a cover is absurd. That is such an absurd disconnect from reality that not even the presumed victims of the attack would go along with It. There are plenty of ways of whipping up patriotic fervor without dragging the Edict into it.

EDIT: Think of it this way: you’re suggesting the UK go nuclear on Argentina in response to the Falkland Islands being invaded. That is a ridiculously excessive escalation.

Nuking Argentina might have been bad PR, but Thatcher might have gotten away with it if the US and the USSR had been willing to accept it.

On the contrary, that’s exactly how the Edict works. The SL is the enforcer of the edict, the hegemon in the system that essentially laid down space-international law. It did this, yes, to preserve civilian life, but also because as the hegemon it has a vested interest in preventing things that are

A) Destabilizing tactics that upset their position as the system leader.

B) Undercut it’s presumed size advantage by giving smaller powers the ability to inflict unacceptable costs on bigger ones.

The real world parallel is akin the the US or the P5 if you prefer. They are say, voraciously oppose nuclear and chemical proliferation because it can destabilize a region, helps negate their investment in conventional superiority, and allows regional players to potentially stand them off politically. Despite this, nuclear deterrence and defining what wars are acceptably on the fringe versus a nuclear commit national interest continues to be a cornerstone of policy between great powers.

Because, again, those powers wrote the law, they enforce the law, and between them the law only exists as an agreement of carefully balanced strategic interests.

The GA is no longer playing in the backwaters, which means that international law like the EE now only applies until it doesn’t. And if the SL says the core is its planet killing red line, that’s a very clear piece of policy. Red lines exactly like that are how you prevent real players in the game from escalating out of control. It’s why there isn’t a radioactive cobalt belt on the Sino-Korean border, why Angolan revolutionaries don’t cause WW3, and why when a real core interest is threatened they make movies about presidents defusing them. All in the formal name of humanity.

And who’s going to disagree? The public we’re told is well controlled by SL information operations? The core worlds who don’t have to watch their orbital infrastructure burn? The government of old terra, undoubtedly a prime target if the GA goes offensive? A western liberal democratic population who, if we use modern MIT studies from as late as 2019, is 59% in favor of using nuclear strikes killing 2M civilians versus losing 20k US troops in a completely fictional war with a regional power who couldn’t even threaten the homeland? The trans solars who stand to lose trillions of the core is a battleground?

So, if the SL says that the GA threatens the source of the EE and will cause vast human suffering as a result, while tied to real stakeholders who need that to be true, well...good enough. The academics will write papers about the legal points later.

The GA are playing for real now, and real war isn’t just fancy space broadsides.