Alternate history: PRH-Solarian War

Sigs wrote:

ThinksMarkedly wrote:Here's a guess: at any point in time, the Junction forts were expected to hold on their own for an extended period against half the PN coming in hyper and a mass transit from Trevor's Star, or for a short period against the full PN. In the former case, Home Fleet would be expected to be battling the other half of the PN in-system, while in the latter it would be rushing to relieve the forts. If Home Fleet is inside the hyper limit, it would 2 to 3 hours to relieve the forts.

My guess is as I stated above, they were there to make any assault on the junction prohibitively expensive for the PN. The PN wont attack because even though they might win if they send 100% of their wallers, they will gut their fleet and then Home Fleet will crush whatever is left over and invade the republic.

I guess it's kind of the same, but in different words. "Hold their own against" does not mean survive intact. If overwhelming the forts was prohibitively expensive for 400 PN SDs -- and I argue that by the end of the war, that would have risen to 500 or more -- then it's prohibitively expensive for 750-900 SLN SDs. You should expect a stalemate result. Even if the SLN captures the Junction, there's a problem that four Alliance termini and Haven remain unscathed.

Capturing the Erewhon Junction doesn't need anywhere near as many SDs and secures a short path from the Core.

The SLN doesn't have anything in the region that can actually take a picket of DN's and BB's without waller support. Once captured it brings them significantly closer to Haven sector but would the SLN settle for Significantly closer instead of in the Haven Sector.

Doesn't Erewhon count as Haven Sector? If they can think of moving 750 SDs 512 light-years from Sol to Manticore, they can move 75 from Sol to Smoking Frog and thence to Erewhon.

kzt wrote:
Given that you seem to think that fighting your way through the entirety of massive defenses of the Manticore WH is no big deal, why is the Erewhon WH a big deal? Somehow I doubt the SLN will wait a decade or two, which is what it takes to actually fortify the WH. Mines sure, but that's no big deal once you own the system.

Haven has DN's and BB's that can take on virtually anything the SLN can throw at them short of wallers. They might send an insufficient force to take Joshua initially which will get chewed up by some mere "battleships" at which point they will send a bigger force to take the system and depending on it's strength the picket can stay and fight or withdraw to the other side. Yeah they lose the Joshua side but they can defend Erewhon with a few squadrons of SD's and DN's until the SLN gets around to sending a sufficient force to take Erewhon through regular space from the Alliance. Once the SLN arrives the SO decides what to do, if he believes he can fight off the SLN he engages, if they are too powerful he withdraws to a predetermined system nearby, informs higher and await instructions or reinforcements all the while scouting the system to keep the SLN on it's Toes. If there are fixed defences in Erewhon and the SO determines that he cannot defeat the SLN force against him he orders everyone off and blows the forts and takes the people with him. The goal would be to buy time by forcing the SLN to fight for both sides of the Junction. Erewhon is not as well placed for the SLN as Manticore is, it's end is in Joshua which is on the outer edge of the shell while Beowulf is in the Core which is surrounded by a lot of heavily industrlized systems which can rebuild Manticore into a Forward base quicker and more importantly Manticore is the nexus of the Alliance which can turn a 1 v 1 fight in to 1 v 3 fight. Erewhon is nothing to turn down, it gives them a forward operations base with an educated modern workforce that would probably be very eager to help the League but it still leaves them Hundreds of LY from the Republic and the Empire as well as far enough away from the major SLN bases and their shipyards to be a headache.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:I guess it's kind of the same, but in different words. "Hold their own against" does not mean survive intact. If overwhelming the forts was prohibitively expensive for 400 PN SDs -- and I argue that by the end of the war, that would have risen to 500 or more -- then it's prohibitively expensive for 750-900 SLN SDs. You should expect a stalemate result. Even if the SLN captures the Junction, there's a problem that four Alliance termini and Haven remain unscathed.

The difference between an attack by the SLN or an attack by the PN is that if the SLN sends in 1,000 SD's against a fortified position that is the equivalent of 400-500 PN SD's and they destroy or damage 80% of the SLN attacking fleet that would represent only 40% of the SLNs available ships, that leaves whatever is left over from the attacking fleet plus 1,000 SD's in the core to reinforce Manticore. The League has 300 SD's in refit, probably 50-100 SD's being build a year split between bound for active service and bound for reserve, obviously all new construction goes to the active fleet. Mobilize the reserve of the newest construction of the last 10 years, that in and of itself is between 250 and 500 SD's alone. So even if the SLN force is left with not a single SD undamaged the SLN would still have the 1,000 SD's as well as 100 SD's new construction, 500 from the reserve, 300 of the refit ships and whatever the SDF's have all of it by the time the attack force gets to Manticore, so that could be whatever they determine they need of the total reaming ships which would be 1,900 SD's along with 3-4 thousand BC/CA/CL/DD escorts in the one system that separate Erewhon, Haven and the Andermani Empire

If on the other hand the PN had attacked the junction forts in say 1905 with their 412 SD's, 48 DN's and 374 BB's they would most likely overwhelm the defences but their fleet would be gutted...their entire wall would be gutted. The PN wouldn't have another 812 SD's, 96 DN's and 748 BB's in reserve to protect the Republic they will have whatever is left of their attack fleet which will be forced to retreat to Trevors Star quickly to avoid Home Fleet. The republic would then have whatever is left over and their own refit as well as new construction which could amount to maybe 100-150 Wallers to fight the RMN and their 300+ wallers.

Capturing the Erewhon Junction doesn't need anywhere near as many SDs and secures a short path from the Core.

It is further away from the heavily industrialized systems in the Core, it is further away from Haven and the Andermani than Manticore and it still keeps the Alliance unified, you are still facing 450 SD's, 150 DN's, 374 BB's and whatever the PN managed to build in the year it took the SLN to actually get to Erewhon and take it and the IAN still has 230 SD's, 90 DN's plus whatever they build during the time frame. And both fleets are in position to mutually support each other.

Doesn't Erewhon count as Haven Sector? If they can think of moving 750 SDs 512 light-years from Sol to Manticore, they can move 75 from Sol to Smoking Frog and thence to Erewhon.

They would need a hell of alot more than 75 SD's to take Erewhon from the Alliance unless someone dropped the ball. Erewhon is a few days to a week from Manticore via the WH's. I would have 80 Alliance SD's and 80 DN's picketing the system, that should take at least 220-250 SLN SD's to defeat them or force them to retreat. Keeping 150 SD's in the Empire, 150 dfending the Republic, 100 at Manticore and the balance is 370 BB's, 150 SD's and 160 DN's in Trevor's Star to reinforce whoever needs it.


Or the Picket at Joshua could be the 120 DN's and 360 BB's with a sufficient logistical support they can retreat through the League on a showing the flag mission, split into 1 Squadron DN with 3 BB Squadron task forces with acceptable escort go through as many core and shell systems as you can, hell if the Alliance is Ballsy enough they can swing through the SLN's naval bases as well, if they can fire as many missiles as they can at any reserve sites and go on your marry way without going into the system. Once done making it seem you are heading towards Phoenix Cluster/Erewhon swing NW towards Asgard and wipe the floor with whatever elements of FF you can find.Don't even have to actually destroy anything, when the core and shell systems start screaming for the SLN to protect them and they realize that the only reason their industry was not wiped out was because the Alliance didn't want at this time they will demand SLN protection, or they will leave the League and seek peace from the Alliance.

munroburton wrote:When, or if, that Haven companion book ever comes out, it'll be possible to duplicate Fester's apologia for Battle Fleet with the Havenite Navy instead of the RMN.

I can't find that post any more --- was it the one that Solarian Strategy probably would have worked against Manticore up to 1909/1910 PD, been questionable in 1911 and a downright failure by 1913 PD?

Sigs wrote:The difference between an attack by the SLN or an attack by the PN is that if the SLN sends in 1,000 SD's against a fortified position that is the equivalent of 400-500 PN SD's [cut]

I'm not disagreeing that the SLN could take the MWHJ and still have ships left. The problem is that it takes another 1000 SDs to take the Haven capital. So by attacking the Junction forts and whatever the Alliance would have left there, the SLN would need to move 1000-1200 SDs off the Core, for the duration of the war. Even if they have already put 200 more in service, that leaves too few for them to defend the Core systems as well as attack in the Haven Sector.

Is that worth it? I'm arguing it isn't, because it left most of the Alliance intact and able to attack.

It is further away from the heavily industrialized systems in the Core, it is further away from Haven and the Andermani than Manticore and it still keeps the Alliance unified, you are still facing 450 SD's, 150 DN's, 374 BB's and whatever the PN managed to build in the year it took the SLN to actually get to Erewhon and take it and the IAN still has 230 SD's, 90 DN's plus whatever they build during the time frame. And both fleets are in position to mutually support each other.

Yes, similarly the SLN would still be facing a largely intact alliance, possibly even larger (fewer ships to defend Erewhon instead of Manticore). But it also leaves the SLN much stronger. Instead of 800-1000 wallers remaining, they'd have around 1800. The difference can be used to raid the other Havenite shipyard systems, like Honor did in the real timeline, or to put together a Raging Justice to take on Haven but not completely uncover the Core.

They would need a hell of alot more than 75 SD's to take Erewhon from the Alliance unless someone dropped the ball. Erewhon is a few days to a week from Manticore via the WH's. I would have 80 Alliance SD's and 80 DN's picketing the system, that should take at least 220-250 SLN SD's to defeat them or force them to retreat. Keeping 150 SD's in the Empire, 150 dfending the Republic, 100 at Manticore and the balance is 370 BB's, 150 SD's and 160 DN's in Trevor's Star to reinforce whoever needs it.

Fair enough, so it takes 200 SDs. The SLN can send even 300 much more easily and much more successfully than the 800 to 1000 that it would take to take on the Manticoran Junction. And unlike Manticore where they'd take a couple of hours, any forces positioned at Trevor's Star would take 5 days to relieve Erewhon. By that time, the battle would be over and the SLN could send in reinforcements from Joshua.

Or the Picket at Joshua could be the 120 DN's and 360 BB's with a sufficient logistical support they can retreat through the League on a showing the flag mission, split into 1 Squadron DN with 3 BB Squadron task forces with acceptable escort go through as many core and shell systems as you can, hell if the Alliance is Ballsy enough they can swing through the SLN's naval bases as well, if they can fire as many missiles as they can at any reserve sites and go on your marry way without going into the system. Once done making it seem you are heading towards Phoenix Cluster/Erewhon swing NW towards Asgard and wipe the floor with whatever elements of FF you can find.Don't even have to actually destroy anything, when the core and shell systems start screaming for the SLN to protect them and they realize that the only reason their industry was not wiped out was because the Alliance didn't want at this time they will demand SLN protection, or they will leave the League and seek peace from the Alliance.

The picket can't be that strong at Joshua, in Erewhon and elsewhere in the Alliance at the same time. The SLN would attack both sides more or less at the same time. Doesn't need to be completely accurate timing, but within a couple of hours it suffices to make sure the Erewhon defenders can't hold both.

fester wrote:

munroburton wrote:When, or if, that Haven companion book ever comes out, it'll be possible to duplicate Fester's apologia for Battle Fleet with the Havenite Navy instead of the RMN.

I can't find that post any more --- was it the one that Solarian Strategy probably would have worked against Manticore up to 1909/1910 PD, been questionable in 1911 and a downright failure by 1913 PD?

Speak of the devil... Hi!

Yes, that's the one. Unfortunately, it fell off the bottom of the Honorverse forums when we had those server crashes a few years ago.

munroburton wrote:

fester wrote:
I can't find that post any more --- was it the one that Solarian Strategy probably would have worked against Manticore up to 1909/1910 PD, been questionable in 1911 and a downright failure by 1913 PD?

Speak of the devil... Hi!

Yes, that's the one. Unfortunately, it fell off the bottom of the Honorverse forums when we had those server crashes a few years ago.

I would say that the Solarian strategy would have worked with Haven up to 6 months before Thunderbolt. Now if there were no losses due to Buttercup, and the Theisman coup had still gone off as in the book, I would move forward the fail point by a year or two as the RHN lost a shit ton of modern-enough ships and skilled personnel during Buttercup but the critical items are MDM pods and podnoughts allowing Haven Quadrant capital ships to fight at a 10:1 tonnage disadvantage when compared to ships that would have been first rate in 1904 PD.

Sigs wrote:

kzt wrote:The author disagrees.

4 times the tonnage, 10-30 times the firepower it doesn't make sense. What does an SD have that a fort doesn't have? And does that thing take up 90% of the SD's tonnage? Because if it doesn't either the forts are using some superweapons or someone made a mistake on the match.

Well old-style forts do tend to sit within shoals of remote weapons platforms. At least the ones at the Junction did. Though that might make more sense there given the shallow hyper limit. You can emplace weapons platforms closer to the terminus to help shred anybody making a hostile transit and out near the million km hyper limit to discourage units from trying to insert close and try a high speed run into energy range.

But even so, before MDMs, the Junction forts - without the support of a strong fleet - could be picked apart at low risk by an enemy willing to spend the time and bring along truly stupendous piles of missiles. The forts can dodge to some extent, using their wedges. But you can at least strip away their orbital weapons pods, and probably start crippling forts, if you throw enough frac-c ballistic laserheads at them. And unlike forts around planets there's no risk of a stray missile causing accidental megadeaths and an Edict violation.


It'd take time to build up the attack runs, then flush a large fraction of your magazines. You'd have to break off, slow down, rendezvous with ammo ship to resupply. But by staying outside of powered missile ranges the significantly more nimble SDs can pick away at the forts with impunity. (To prevent that Home Fleet would need to come out and engage the attacking fleet. But in this scenario with Manticore defeated would Haven have left a large enough fleet to be able to tangle with the SLN outside of support range of the forts?)

It is probable that any scenario that enables the PRH to conquer the SKM then attack the SL, or more likely be attacked by the SL, will have severely atritted the PRH navy, the RMN and the junction forts. Even if the RHN conquered Manticore, Sphinx and Griffen, the junction forts would hold out at least to secure better terms. As a result, an SLN attack on the junction would be less challenging.

Jonathan_S wrote:It'd take time to build up the attack runs, then flush a large fraction of your magazines. You'd have to break off, slow down, rendezvous with ammo ship to resupply. But by staying outside of powered missile ranges the significantly more nimble SDs can pick away at the forts with impunity. (To prevent that Home Fleet would need to come out and engage the attacking fleet. But in this scenario with Manticore defeated would Haven have left a large enough fleet to be able to tangle with the SLN outside of support range of the forts?)

It would take a very long time, and an absurd amount of missiles. The forts can maneuver at something like 30g, so given that this takes about a week per pass and the forts know your vector at launch, they will just move a few million KM. And form up so that the only shot the missiles have if they somehow get into range is a few milliseconds on the flanks of a few forts. I suspect the forts will run out of food or develop major maint issues before you’d get more than one or two.