Time to read THE LAST CENTURION?

isaac_newton wrote:
tin foil hat alert

1) how can people in Portland have antibodies from October 2019 when it was first spotted in China in December - and please don't spout that drivel about deliberate infections

There are some suspicions, that it is actually the second wave of pandemic (probably the different virus race), and the first actually hit earlier, but was not identified - merely taken as another flu.

I remain an agnostic regarding the Coronavirus epidemic. The official numbers suggest that we averted millions of deaths because of the quarantine and lockdown measures. The random tests suggest that the number of people actually infected are orders of magnitude higher than believed and the lethality rate is this not much worse than the common flu. Given the well documented false positive rate with the CDCs initial test, I will not accept the results of these random tests until the accuracy is validated.

The bottom line is that either this was a chicken little overhype or we will be screwed next Flu season. If the official numbers are right, the virus is now so widely dispersed and infects so many people that by next fall the resurgence will launch from a base of millions of infections rather than a few. Just a few weeks of 5% daily growth will result in billions of infections. In such a scenario, the only effective defense will be a functioning economy that can support mass production of medical supplies. Loosing a few percent of the population will be horrific, but it will be survivable. If neither a vaccine or herd immunity is possible, then loosing a few percent of the population annually will become civilization ending.

Interesting to see that Dilandu is back. I was beginning to think that the Coronavirus got her. In case no one is paying attention, Russia is now consistently number 2 for new infections behind the USA. Russia is number 1 for rate of growth if you exclude a few countries with trivial numbers of infections. Since China allegedly has the Chinavirus under control, one must conclude that Vladimir Putin screwed up by not imposing a travel ban to prevent diseased Eurotrash from infecting Russia.

TFLYTSNBN wrote:I remain an agnostic regarding the Coronavirus epidemic. The official numbers suggest that we averted millions of deaths because of the quarantine and lockdown measures. The random tests suggest that the number of people actually infected are orders of magnitude higher than believed and the lethality rate is this not much worse than the common flu. Given the well documented false positive rate with the CDCs initial test, I will not accept the results of these random tests until the accuracy is validated.

When comparing COVID-19 to the flu, remember that the amount of dead now occurred in spite of quarantine/lockdown, social distancing and hospitalization - and it's not over yet.

Joat42 wrote:

TFLYTSNBN wrote:I remain an agnostic regarding the Coronavirus epidemic. The official numbers suggest that we averted millions of deaths because of the quarantine and lockdown measures. The random tests suggest that the number of people actually infected are orders of magnitude higher than believed and the lethality rate is this not much worse than the common flu. Given the well documented false positive rate with the CDCs initial test, I will not accept the results of these random tests until the accuracy is validated.

When comparing COVID-19 to the flu, remember that the amount of dead now occurred in spite of quarantine/lockdown, social distancing and hospitalization - and it's not over yet.

Indeed. It's like getting a warning of an incoming nuke, scrambling everyone to the underground bunker, the bombs fall, the earth shakes, things fall off the walls, someone breaks their arm and there are cuts and bruises and someone looks around and says "Wait a minute! We went through all that scrambling and hiding and panic just for a broken arm and some scrapes? What happened to the nukes killing everyone? What a giant waste of time! We could have just stayed where we were! I've gotten a broken arm from falling off my bike, nukes are like falling off your bike!"

TFLYTSNBN wrote:
Interesting to see that Dilandu is back.

Idiot, there are a sowing season for spring wheat in Russia. While you could spend all your time posting in web and dreaming about your nonexistent sexual conquests, some peoples need to actually work hard to earn their bread.

P.S. And to your information, little dumb girl, I'm male)

For some very old style people being called a female is a negative, so they think it is an insult.
You make a good point regarding priorities. Many of us have a full life outside of these pages. We just come on to have some fun winding up those who take some narrow things seriously.

Dilandu wrote:

TFLYTSNBN wrote:
Interesting to see that Dilandu is back.

Idiot, there are a sowing season for spring wheat in Russia. While you could spend all your time posting in web and dreaming about your nonexistent sexual conquests, some peoples need to actually work hard to earn their bread.

P.S. And to your information, little girl, I'm male)

Daryl wrote:For some very old style people being called a female is a negative, so they think it is an insult.

It's also commonly used by insecure men who have a need to assert their manliness by denigrating others. YMMV.

Joat42 wrote:

Daryl wrote:For some very old style people being called a female is a negative, so they think it is an insult.

It's also commonly used by insecure men who have a need to assert their manliness by denigrating others. YMMV.

Many of the best human beings I know are women. I stand in awe of those emergency room nurses, both male and female, we see on the nightly news. Then I think of the love and support my wife has received during her hospital stays here in Viborg. Those gals are at the top of my list of nominees for sainthood.

Don

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n7axw wrote:Many of the best human beings I know are women. I stand in awe of those emergency room nurses, both male and female, we see on the nightly news. Then I think of the love and support my wife has received during her hospital stays here in Viborg. Those gals are at the top of my list of nominees for sainthood.

Don

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Agreed.

Dilandu wrote:

n7axw wrote:Many of the best human beings I know are women. I stand in awe of those emergency room nurses, both male and female, we see on the nightly news. Then I think of the love and support my wife has received during her hospital stays here in Viborg. Those gals are at the top of my list of nominees for sainthood.

Don

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Agreed.

Why would you presume that my reference to Dilandu as female was intended as an insult? The screen name and certain posts seem to strongly indicate that Dilandu is female. If I am mistaken, my apologies.
Keep in mind that back in 2008 I, was an enthusiastic Palin supporter.

The analogy of the incoming nuke and bomb shelters is excellent. Many years ago I did a detailed analysis of the synergistic effects of bomb shelters combined with moderately effective ballistic missile defense. Shelters that are structurally comparable to a subway, a sewer mail, or an underground fuel storage tank can reduce the lethal area of a nuke by about 95%. Instead of needing only 500, half Megaton warheads to kill the people in America's 100 largest cities, they would need 10,000 warheads. To target people in such 50 psi shelters, an attacker would have to fuse the warheads for near surface burst. This brings the warheads within range of relatively simple point defense systems such as a 30 millimeter Goal Keeper or the Russian Kashtun.

Of course any post attack evaluation of bomb shelters would require an accurate estimate of the warhead yield. If the warheads are only half kiloton rather than half Megaton, then the shelters will be over rated.

Russia is #1!
For number of new cases.
Of course US States seem to report data individually so the US numbers update repeatedly during the day.
It appears that Russia might become #1 for total cases within a month!