GA-League War

Sigs wrote:I'm messing up the scenario here, because for there to be even a challenge in this fight we might have to go further back, before the introduction of SD(P)'s and LAC's and CLACs because even 50 SD(P)'s could go from system to system, wreck the SLN and leave the rest of the Alliance wallers for defence.

Yes! That would be truly interesting.

It would give us a look at the quality of SL tactics and strategy. We have absolutely zero feel for where they fit on the Top Ten Tacticians list.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:Let's make a quick check on math on building a few SDs a year doesn't add to 10000 SDs. Manticore's first SD (HMS Manticore) is from 1750. Let's say they were 30 years late and the SLN had their first in 1720. That means in the past 200 years, they built 50 SDs per year. We know that the RMN is now the fastest ever at building SDs, clocking 22 months from laying the keel to commissioning. That means the SLN must have an average of at least 100 SDs being built at any point in time, over the last 200 years. Since they take 4 years to build an SD instead of Manticore's 2, that's an average of 200 SDs in construction at any time. If they kept this average until today, they're commissioning 50 SDs every year.

It's possible that they are building far fewer now than they were, say, 50 years ago. If they cut building capacity to one fourth, that's still 50 SDs in construction any point in time and commissioning 12 or 13 every years.

I guess that counts as "a handful".

Depends on when you transition from DN to SD. The Manticoran Ad Astra-class DN came into service in 1632 (and are about 60% the size of the later Scientist class SD)

In RFC's infodump on 'Status of the Solarian League Navy' he said that "There have been both superdreadnoughts and dreadnoughts for centuries, and the two types came into existence at roughly the same time".

So I think you need to push your 'first SDs' start point back at least a century earlier.

Also, to me, it would make sense for the building rate to slow over time.
When the "battleship floor" is first breached it'd be like the Dreadnought race - the pre-Dreadnoughts are considered obsolete as front line units and everyone scrambles to get a critical mass of the new DNs (and a few years later SDs). But once the League is satisfied with their lead - and the technology stagnates - the League can drastically ramp down their production to just a minimum level of slow build; to maintain yards and expertise. Then slowly, slowly turn over their active units while building up the reserve. So I'd expect the build rate over the first 25 - 50 years of the type to dwarf the build rate of the early 1900s.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:
Let's make a quick check on math on building a few SDs a year doesn't add to 10000 SDs. Manticore's first SD (HMS Manticore) is from 1750. Let's say they were 30 years late and the SLN had their first in 1720. That means in the past 200 years, they built 50 SDs per year. We know that the RMN is now the fastest ever at building SDs, clocking 22 months from laying the keel to commissioning. That means the SLN must have an average of at least 100 SDs being built at any point in time, over the last 200 years. Since they take 4 years to build an SD instead of Manticore's 2, that's an average of 200 SDs in construction at any time. If they kept this average until today, they're commissioning 50 SDs every year.

Why are you assuming that they started building SD's in 1720? In 1544 Manticore was still deciding if they needed a fleet, they were under threat and they were still deciding whether they really needed the RMN or not. So it's not unlikely that even with those threats they faced the SKM had decided that BB's and BC's were enough. Coincidently they started building SD's after the People's Republic turned conqueror in the early 1700’s, they knew they had something of value(the junction) and they determined they needed something to protect the system.

It's possible that they are building far fewer now than they were, say, 50 years ago. If they cut building capacity to one fourth, that's still 50 SDs in construction any point in time and commissioning 12 or 13 every years.

I would venture a guess that when the SD’s become a thing the League was a lot more willing to spend money building up SD’s and once they got Battle Fleet up to 2,000 SD’s they slowed down.

I guess that counts as "a handful".

A single system nation like the SKM averaged ~7 SD’s a year for 45 years during their prewar buildup so a nation like the League and their 1,700 members averaging only 7 times what the RMN averaged is considered a handful.

No doubt. The war needs to be long enough to show that the SLN is incompetent, to draw out the worst of the Mandarins, for them to try and squeeze the money out of the Verge, even attempt that Constitutional Amendment to tax directly, but short enough to prevent the SLN R&D to catch up and put it into production. Remember that in this scenario, there's no Apollo, so the bar isn't that high. The RHN did effectively catch up with an even worse educational base in 3 years. The difference is that they did so without an external threat and with a shipyard (Bolthole) out of reach and even knowledge of any of the combatants.

The Verge is as pissed off at the League as they can be already and the Core/Shell systems don’t really care or care to know. Giving an opponent time hang himself and hoping that he does especially without the MA egging them on is asking for trouble. What happens if after a couple of battles the mandarins decide to go on the defensive until they have comparable weapons? Or they mobilise the ships from the reserve that are newest and easiest to mobilize, they may be only 500-1,000 but that still gives them more ships to use against the GA and if they pushed hard they can find the manpower to man those ships. The newest SD’s from the reserve would not be as useless vs 1914 tech like they were against 1921 tec, and all they need is 1 lucky move like attacking and capturing the Beowulf Terminal and then the core isn’t as threatened and they have more breathing space.

And we did see how quickly Cataphracts were put together. I'd say that the Cataphracts-A would come about within 1 year of the start of this war, maybe a bit longer if the MAlign isn't feeding TIY prepared research from Buttercup. Cataphracts-C and pods would be within 2 years, which is dangerous to the GA forces. So this war needs to wrap up before the 2 year mark.

They may have the designs for pods already but the SLN doesn’t see the value in them until they are the recipients of missile pods…hell they can have designs for LAC’s comparable to Cintemmeres but the SLN doesn’t want them because they are not real warships and only for Neobarbs… giving them 6 months is a bad idea a year is worse, 2 years is just asking for it.

Jonathan_S wrote:

ThinksMarkedly wrote:Let's make a quick check on math on building a few SDs a year doesn't add to 10000 SDs. Manticore's first SD (HMS Manticore) is from 1750. Let's say they were 30 years late and the SLN had their first in 1720. That means in the past 200 years, they built 50 SDs per year. We know that the RMN is now the fastest ever at building SDs, clocking 22 months from laying the keel to commissioning. That means the SLN must have an average of at least 100 SDs being built at any point in time, over the last 200 years. Since they take 4 years to build an SD instead of Manticore's 2, that's an average of 200 SDs in construction at any time. If they kept this average until today, they're commissioning 50 SDs every year.

It's possible that they are building far fewer now than they were, say, 50 years ago. If they cut building capacity to one fourth, that's still 50 SDs in construction any point in time and commissioning 12 or 13 every years.

I guess that counts as "a handful".

Depends on when you transition from DN to SD. The Manticoran Ad Astra-class DN came into service in 1632 (and are about 60% the size of the later Scientist class SD)

In RFC's infodump on 'Status of the Solarian League Navy' he said that "There have been both superdreadnoughts and dreadnoughts for centuries, and the two types came into existence at roughly the same time".

So I think you need to push your 'first SDs' start point back at least a century earlier.

Also, to me, it would make sense for the building rate to slow over time.
When the "battleship floor" is first breached it'd be like the Dreadnought race - the pre-Dreadnoughts are considered obsolete as front line units and everyone scrambles to get a critical mass of the new DNs (and a few years later SDs). But once the League is satisfied with their lead - and the technology stagnates - the League can drastically ramp down their production to just a minimum level of slow build; to maintain yards and expertise. Then slowly, slowly turn over their active units while building up the reserve. So I'd expect the build rate over the first 25 - 50 years of the type to dwarf the build rate of the early 1900s.

However big the League's yard capacity is, over time they would have had to reallocate a growing portion of them to fleet maintenance. Eg. if units in Reserve only need be dusted off every fifty years and they spend six months on each, that's 10 slips permanently occupied with this task once the Reserve reaches 1,000 and no longer available to construct more. By 1920, the Reserve could be keeping nearly a hundred slips busy constantly, if not even more.

And IIRC, the SLN had about 300 active-duty SDs undergoing maintenance out of just over two thousand when Byng started the war. Another 300 slips removed from construction duty.

Frontier Fleet may have also consumed a significant amount of that capacity, even with some facilities of their own nearer to the frontier.

The SL probably peaked quickly with as many as 400 under construction simultaneously. From there, new-build rate steadily came down as more and more yard time was needed for existing ships.

What year saw the worthless Fleet 2000 upgrades?

Will the SLN accept being a 3rd rate navy? The Mandarins DID manage to get funding for the war right at the end. Will the funds be used to rebuild the Navy?

cthia wrote:What year saw the worthless Fleet 2000 upgrades?

Don't recall right now, but in the last 5 years prior to the actual engagement with Manticore. So a war in 1914 would see these upgrades at best only in the beginning.

Will the SLN accept being a 3rd rate navy? The Mandarins DID manage to get funding for the war right at the end. Will the funds be used to rebuild the Navy?

"Accept" is not the question. And the Mandarins did not actually get the funding before Honor had them arrested. They had the Constitutional Amendment proposed and they thought it would pass but it had not yet done so. There's a non-zero chance that enough systems wouldn't support it -- and this is assuming the one system veto didn't apply. Even if passed, there's the question of implementing tax collection. We see how a mess it can be to give a hundred million people money they want, imagine trying to collect money from a trillion people who have never given you any. The SL would lean heavily on the system governments to do the collection and those system governments may not want to collaborate. Many would outright refuse and soon after secede.

Lose a couple more Core systems and the League is looking at taxing heavily the remaining Core ones (including Sol) and the Shell.

cthia wrote: Will the SLN accept being a 3rd rate navy? The Mandarins DID manage to get funding for the war right at the end. Will the funds be used to rebuild the Navy?

Most of the League members remained in the League because they were protected by the mighty SLN and there was no reason to leave the League. If they left the League the SLN wont protect them and they have to invest in their own defence. But in a war where the SLN goes from invincible 10,000 SD fleet that will crush any puny neobarbs like bugs to being crushed by a smaller alliance of Neobarbs in only a few months I would guess that a lot of core members would reassess their continued membership in the League. Option 1 is remain in the League, give the same incompetent bunch money at this point your tax dollars to build a new fleet that they may end up losing again or not using it to defend you...or you can take your system out of the League, build your own system navy and mind your own business.

Most Core worlds can easily maintain 30-40 SD(P)'s of their own with lighter combatants, LAC's and fixed defences, and they can be sure that those ships are in their system for the defence of their system and not used for offensive purposes. Chances are no matter how self-absorbed the League members are they will realise that some in the league will want revenge against the GA, and how many would want to fund that insanity when they know that it wouldn't be guaranteed, they beat the League once, they can do it again.


They secede from the League, ask GA for protection and then ask them for a military mission to assist in the creation of a fleet. When the individual systems build their own fleet they will be less inclined to send it out for unnecessary wars that may see it blown away while leaving them exposed after paying for a fleet to protect them. OR each member pldges to build a fleet of x SD(P)'s and x CLACs etc... and signs a defence agreement with the rest of the League, they become a large defence alliance with trade agreements. Basically relegate the SLN to a light combatant for antipiracy and all the heavy hitters would be in the core/shell government and only can be used in defence.

The SLN was paid for by taxes from trade I believe, the second that the member states are asked to contribute for common defence they will want guarantees and the only guarantee I would trust is an alliance of sorts like NATO, everyone has their own fleet and they pledge to assist each other in defence. If you want to go after the GA you do it on your own dime, if they come to you we will be there to help you.

Sigs wrote:

cthia wrote: Will the SLN accept being a 3rd rate navy? The Mandarins DID manage to get funding for the war right at the end. Will the funds be used to rebuild the Navy?

Most of the League members remained in the League because they were protected by the mighty SLN and there was no reason to leave the League. If they left the League the SLN wont protect them and they have to invest in their own defence. But in a war where the SLN goes from invincible 10,000 SD fleet that will crush any puny neobarbs like bugs to being crushed by a smaller alliance of Neobarbs in only a few months I would guess that a lot of core members would reassess their continued membership in the League. Option 1 is remain in the League, give the same incompetent bunch money at this point your tax dollars to build a new fleet that they may end up losing again or not using it to defend you...or you can take your system out of the League, build your own system navy and mind your own business.

Most Core worlds can easily maintain 30-40 SD(P)'s of their own with lighter combatants, LAC's and fixed defences, and they can be sure that those ships are in their system for the defence of their system and not used for offensive purposes. Chances are no matter how self-absorbed the League members are they will realise that some in the league will want revenge against the GA, and how many would want to fund that insanity when they know that it wouldn't be guaranteed, they beat the League once, they can do it again.


They secede from the League, ask GA for protection and then ask them for a military mission to assist in the creation of a fleet. When the individual systems build their own fleet they will be less inclined to send it out for unnecessary wars that may see it blown away while leaving them exposed after paying for a fleet to protect them. OR each member pldges to build a fleet of x SD(P)'s and x CLACs etc... and signs a defence agreement with the rest of the League, they become a large defence alliance with trade agreements. Basically relegate the SLN to a light combatant for antipiracy and all the heavy hitters would be in the core/shell government and only can be used in defence.

The SLN was paid for by taxes from trade I believe, the second that the member states are asked to contribute for common defence they will want guarantees and the only guarantee I would trust is an alliance of sorts like NATO, everyone has their own fleet and they pledge to assist each other in defence. If you want to go after the GA you do it on your own dime, if they come to you we will be there to help you.

Why can't the systems that secede take as many of the orphaned SDs in storage as they can handle? The SL doesn't want them and they're still good for system defense. While they're building their own fleet.

They already have stock in them.

Sigs wrote:Most Core worlds can easily maintain 30-40 SD(P)'s of their own with lighter combatants, LAC's and fixed defences, and they can be sure that those ships are in their system for the defence of their system and not used for offensive purposes. Chances are no matter how self-absorbed the League members are they will realise that some in the league will want revenge against the GA, and how many would want to fund that insanity when they know that it wouldn't be guaranteed, they beat the League once, they can do it again.


They secede from the League, ask GA for protection and then ask them for a military mission to assist in the creation of a fleet. When the individual systems build their own fleet they will be less inclined to send it out for unnecessary wars that may see it blown away while leaving them exposed after paying for a fleet to protect them. OR each member pldges to build a fleet of x SD(P)'s and x CLACs etc... and signs a defence agreement with the rest of the League, they become a large defence alliance with trade agreements. Basically relegate the SLN to a light combatant for antipiracy and all the heavy hitters would be in the core/shell government and only can be used in defence.

It's interesting that this argument can be turned aroudn on its head: because the SLN was controlled by the league government and not subject to the whims of each of the member systems, it wasn't used to settle disputes among them, not even as the "stick" in the "carrot and stick" in negotiations. The proliferation of system defence forces increases the chances of petty wars between them, which can drag allies into the fighting.

Similarly, the member systems that don't want the military to be used in wars they shouldn't be involved in staying in the League increases the chances that said involvement will not happen. The more of those there are in the League, the less likely its navy will be of going against the majority opinion. So long, of course, that the military and government in the new League is accountable to the people and the member systems.

It's far more likely that the systems that want revenge against the GA will band together, because they can't after all go to the GA to ask for the technology to build up their fleets. They have to pool their resources. So if the majority of the systems that don't want revenge leaves the League, the League by default becomes that GA-antagonist entity. This could be a problem down the line if this entity retains something like 1000 systems.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:It's interesting that this argument can be turned aroudn on its head: because the SLN was controlled by the league government and not subject to the whims of each of the member systems, it wasn't used to settle disputes among them, not even as the "stick" in the "carrot and stick" in negotiations. The proliferation of system defence forces increases the chances of petty wars between them, which can drag allies into the fighting.

Similarly, the member systems that don't want the military to be used in wars they shouldn't be involved in staying in the League increases the chances that said involvement will not happen. The more of those there are in the League, the less likely its navy will be of going against the majority opinion. So long, of course, that the military and government in the new League is accountable to the people and the member systems.

It's far more likely that the systems that want revenge against the GA will band together, because they can't after all go to the GA to ask for the technology to build up their fleets. They have to pool their resources. So if the majority of the systems that don't want revenge leaves the League, the League by default becomes that GA-antagonist entity. This could be a problem down the line if this entity retains something like 1000 systems.

But what is the likelihood that staying or leaving the League will depend solely on attitudes to the GA? It is entirely possible that the Core worlds were satisfied with the League and will stay with the new version. given the increased accountability of the League government, despite initial irritation with the GA. That irritation may go away, because the League members are more focused on relations within the Core, than with whatever is outside. Those that leave will be the ones close to Beowulf or closer to the Verge, such as the Mays Sector.