Time to read THE LAST CENTURION?

TFLYTSNBN wrote:Of course none of you Brainiacas know enough about petroleum engineering to understand what shutting in a welcome in an Arctic environment will do to the well, collection and transportation network. Maybe some of you will do some Googling? Zeihan is one of the few prognostiators who knows more about oil than I do. None of you people know anything.

One can make a case that Russia's economy can survive the Coronavirus and the loss of their oil revenue. I disagree. I would be interested in reading cogent arguments that make the point. The most effective strategy for Russia would be to take out Saudi oil production and maybe oil tankers world wide. This has to occur within a few months.


Iran launched a cruise missile strike on the Saudis major transport and processing hub back when European s were still eager to help Iran evade sanctions. How desperate do you think Iran will become now that they can't even give their oil away? The most effective strategy would be to take out Saudi oil production and maybe tankers.

In case any of you idiots didn't notice, President Trump has actually been engaging in diplomacy to resolve the feud between Saudi Arabia and Russia. Maybe it will work.

Have you realized what will happen to your domestic oil-production yet, especially in light of what Ziehan alluded to?

The E wrote:Blaming China for COVID is useless, about as useless as blaming the US for HIV or Mexico for H1N1 or France for the spanish flu. New infectious diseases can appear anywhere, at any time; this time, it happened in China. Next time, it may be the US, or Canada, or Britain, or literally any country on Earth; To demand that we blame a country for the misdeeds of a virus that dared jump to humans is stupid.
(Which, of course, makes it an appealing idea to TFLY)

I believe that the Spanish Flu [late WW1] actually originated in the US and came over with the soldiers. I understand that the death rates in the trenches were suppressed by the Allies to avoid giving 'ideas' to the German high command.

Spain had no skin in that game and so reported the actual death rates - everyone then thought that it originated there - hence the name!

Quite true. So let's not have any more "china virus" rubbish?

isaac_newton wrote:

The E wrote:Blaming China for COVID is useless, about as useless as blaming the US for HIV or Mexico for H1N1 or France for the spanish flu. New infectious diseases can appear anywhere, at any time; this time, it happened in China. Next time, it may be the US, or Canada, or Britain, or literally any country on Earth; To demand that we blame a country for the misdeeds of a virus that dared jump to humans is stupid.
(Which, of course, makes it an appealing idea to TFLY)

I believe that the Spanish Flu [late WW1] actually originated in the US and came over with the soldiers. I understand that the death rates in the trenches were suppressed by the Allies to avoid giving 'ideas' to the German high command.

Spain had no skin in that game and so reported the actual death rates - everyone then thought that it originated there - hence the name!

From fly, "President Trump has actually been engaging in diplomacy"
Yeah right, no laughing in the ranks please.

TFLYTSNBN wrote:Just to further provoke anger because you people are incapable of thought, I will pass on this latest from Ziehan:


SNIP
And filled up it will be, because that is the express goal of the world’s largest oil exporter, Saudi Arabia. The Saudi price war started out as a spat with the Russians over carrying the burden of a production cut. It has since expanded into the Saudis targeting the end markets of every single one of what the Saudis’ consider to be inefficient producers. The Saudis are directly targeting markets previously serviced not just by US shale and Russian, but those serviced by Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan and Libya and Iraq and Iran and Malaysia and Indonesia and Mexico and Norway and the United Kingdom and Nigeria and Chad and you get the idea.

As of this morning, there are still at least 24 supertankers carrying at least 50 million barrels of Saudi crude en route to the U.S. Gulf Coast. Most will arrive in May, seeking to fill up as much of what remains of U.S. storage as possible. Similar volumes are in route to Europe and even bigger volumes to Northeast Asia. In most cases the destinations are the transshipment nodes that enable distribution of inland-produced oil to coastal locations: Rotterdam, Suez, Singapore, Korea.

SNIP.

Actually FLY that was an interesting article.

I have no way to judge how true that is, but it seems to me that, if true, the Saudi's are putting the knife in to a large number of 'big' countries.

From Zeihans statement that includes the US and the fracking industry - not going to do much good for your dream of Festung USA.

I'm surprised the Trump has not noticed what his big buddies and loyal allies, the Saudis, are up to. But then he is not exactly known for his sharp insight is he?

isaac_newton wrote:

The E wrote:Blaming China for COVID is useless, about as useless as blaming the US for HIV or Mexico for H1N1 or France for the spanish flu. New infectious diseases can appear anywhere, at any time; this time, it happened in China. Next time, it may be the US, or Canada, or Britain, or literally any country on Earth; To demand that we blame a country for the misdeeds of a virus that dared jump to humans is stupid.
(Which, of course, makes it an appealing idea to TFLY)

I believe that the Spanish Flu [late WW1] actually originated in the US and came over with the soldiers. I understand that the death rates in the trenches were suppressed by the Allies to avoid giving 'ideas' to the German high command.

Spain had no skin in that game and so reported the actual death rates - everyone then thought that it originated there - hence the name!

A number of medical historians say that the first wave of the "Spanish Flu" hit the British base camp at Etaples France during the winter of 1916/17. This was quite a bit earlier than the first cases in Kansas.

Joat42 wrote:

TFLYTSNBN wrote:Of course none of you Brainiacas know enough about petroleum engineering to understand what shutting in a welcome in an Arctic environment will do to the well, collection and transportation network. Maybe some of you will do some Googling? Zeihan is one of the few prognostiators who knows more about oil than I do. None of you people know anything.

One can make a case that Russia's economy can survive the Coronavirus and the loss of their oil revenue. I disagree. I would be interested in reading cogent arguments that make the point. The most effective strategy for Russia would be to take out Saudi oil production and maybe oil tankers world wide. This has to occur within a few months.


Iran launched a cruise missile strike on the Saudis major transport and processing hub back when European s were still eager to help Iran evade sanctions. How desperate do you think Iran will become now that they can't even give their oil away? The most effective strategy would be to take out Saudi oil production and maybe tankers.

In case any of you idiots didn't notice, President Trump has actually been engaging in diplomacy to resolve the feud between Saudi Arabia and Russia. Maybe it will work.

Have you realized what will happen to your domestic oil-production yet, especially in light of what Ziehan alluded to?

I am very much aware of the impact of well shut down on domestic oil production. Unlike Wells in Siberia, frakking wells can be shut down by turning a valve then turned back on just by turning a valve. These wells actually have a brief, very high peak in production volume. We have to continuously drill new wells to maintain production. It will be trivially easy for the US to recover oil production as the economy revives.

Daryl wrote:From fly, "President Trump has actually been engaging in diplomacy"
Yeah right, no laughing in the ranks please.

https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-envi ... e-oil-deal

In response to Isaac Newton, Trump just deflected the knife that Saudi Arabia had aimed for America's back. I suspect that Trump's negotiating included something along the lines of:
"Nice County you have there. Your oil production infrastructure is amazing. It would be a damn shame if something happened to it. The Iranians could launch another, even bigger missile strike. Thanks to Saudi incitement of repeated insurgencies, Iran is also gaining control of Iraq. They just might invade to take over your entire country as well as Kuwait. The large minority of Shiite Muslims would welcome the Invaders and massacre the Sunni Saudis. Russia might decide that the only way to save it's oil exports is to launch a cruise missile strike. Hell, even America might decide to launch a strike from a few of it's SSGNs. Can you imagine what 4 x 22 x 7 = 616 Tomohawk cruise missiles would do to your processing plants, pumping stations and terminals? I don't have to worry about any political backlash. If I were to release all of the secret intelligence on Saudi complicity in the 9-11 attacks, Americans would be urging me nuke you into the stone age."

And just to incite Insanity, I offer this:

https://americaoutloud.com/media-pandem ... tatistics/

cthia wrote:Does Kim jon-un have covid-19?

Fascinating question. I've read reports that he had undergone some unspecified surgery. Is there a surgery that might be performed in response to the Coronavirus? It is reported that the China plague can inflict cardiac damage. As of this posting, John's Hopkins continues to report zero cases in North Korea. This is absurd. Equally absurd is China's reporting that half of it's provinces have zero cases as well as Beijing having only a few cases.

In other news, new cases in the US are way down. Of course all of our tests have high false positive as well as moderate false negative rates. We really should be doing two different tests on each patient to have accurate statistics.