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Time to read THE LAST CENTURION?

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Re: Time to read THE LAST CENTURION?
Post by TFLYTSNBN   » Sun Apr 19, 2020 9:39 pm

TFLYTSNBN

gcomeau wrote:
WeberFan wrote:SNIP




Don

Actually, the US Government CAN ban the sale of US-produced crude oil on the international market. In fact, up until recently (late 2015/early 2016 IIRC) that was exactly the case. The US banned international sales of US crude in 1975 following the Arab Oil Embargo. A US Oil company could import crude oil from overseas, refine it, then sell the refined products. No issues. But it was illegal to sell crude oil produced in the US on the international markets.


(And now maybe TFLY can tell us all about how for all that time US domestic oil prices were miraculously much lower somehow...)[/quote]


The US was very reliant on oil imports up until a few years ago. Domestic prices were coupled to international prices. US didn't impose any price controls on domestic producers or impose an import duty because the US wanted to encourage production.

It is plausible that the US might enable massive exports which would equalize prices with the rest of the world. However; it is difficult to imagine a Democrat or Republican administration telling Americans that they will have to pay $10 per gallon for rationed gasoline and high unemployment so that Europeans can have gas.

It would be interesting to read your explanation of why Americans would tolerate that. May be the US would allow export but with a $50 per barrel tariff?
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Re: Time to read THE LAST CENTURION?
Post by Annachie   » Mon Apr 20, 2020 12:47 am

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Fly, do you honestly have any idea about oil in the USA, or are you just spouting the usual nonsense from far right wing conspiricy sites.

Here's a hint, look at what oil the US exports and where it ends up, and what it imports and where it ends up.

Also, fracking is not actually safe. In fact it's so damaging it should be banned in any place there is civilization.
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Re: Time to read THE LAST CENTURION?
Post by Michael Everett   » Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:27 am

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Annachie wrote:Also, fracking is not actually safe. In fact it's so damaging it should be banned in any place there is civilization.

...so tempted to do a "then it's fine in America" joke...
:twisted: :lol:
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Re: Time to read THE LAST CENTURION?
Post by n7axw   » Mon Apr 20, 2020 9:37 am

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Michael Everett wrote:
Annachie wrote:Also, fracking is not actually safe. In fact it's so damaging it should be banned in any place there is civilization.

...so tempted to do a "then it's fine in America" joke...
:twisted: :lol:


Actually, I wouldn't be offended. I've wondered sometimes myself... :(

Don

-
When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: Time to read THE LAST CENTURION?
Post by TFLYTSNBN   » Mon Apr 20, 2020 10:20 am

TFLYTSNBN

Given the above spewing about the alleged safety issues with hydraulic fracturing, you should not be offended if we keep our oil and natural gas to ourselves and allow Europeans to huddle in their unheated homes next winter until they have all suffered from the latest iteration of the Coronavirus.

Yes, I am very cognizant of the US oil industry and export/import flows.
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Re: Time to read THE LAST CENTURION?
Post by The E   » Mon Apr 20, 2020 11:19 am

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TFLYTSNBN wrote:Yes, I am very cognizant of the US oil industry and export/import flows.


Given that you apparently believe that the EU is somehow dependant on the US for an irreplaceable part of its energy needs, no, you are not.
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Re: Time to read THE LAST CENTURION?
Post by n7axw   » Mon Apr 20, 2020 12:43 pm

n7axw
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TFLYTSNBN wrote:Given the above spewing about the alleged safety issues with hydraulic fracturing, you should not be offended if we keep our oil and natural gas to ourselves and allow Europeans to huddle in their unheated homes next winter until they have all suffered from the latest iteration of the Coronavirus.

Yes, I am very cognizant of the US oil industry and export/import flows.


You are off the rails here, TFLY. First, the safety issues with fracking are real, not alleged. Secondly, fracking is not cheap. It is expensive. Finally, getting that oil from the tar sands is expensive and refining it even more difficult. Further it is toxic, posing a threat to the environment we don't need. We may be theoretically energy independent. But it is the glut of oil from the rest of the world that keeps our prices down.

So... my friend, I'm afraid you are all hat and no cattle on this one.

Don

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When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: Time to read THE LAST CENTURION?
Post by Joat42   » Mon Apr 20, 2020 2:23 pm

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The price for WTI futures dropped to $2/barrel today and crude to ~$23/barrel.

So extracting oil from tar-sands and fracking now cost ALOT more than what the oil sells for.

Heck, the oil-producers can't keep up with the extreme drop in demand which means they are overproducing and soon have nowhere to store all the oil that's being processed.

I expect some interesting times for the oil-companies that rely on fracking and tar-sands in the USA.

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Re: Time to read THE LAST CENTURION?
Post by Joat42   » Mon Apr 20, 2020 4:06 pm

Joat42
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Joat42 wrote:The price for WTI futures dropped to $2/barrel today and crude to ~$23/barrel.

They are now giving away or even paying for people to buy WTI...

---
Jack of all trades and destructive tinkerer.

Anyone who have simple solutions for complex problems is a fool.
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Re: Time to read THE LAST CENTURION?
Post by TFLYTSNBN   » Mon Apr 20, 2020 4:29 pm

TFLYTSNBN

The E wrote:
TFLYTSNBN wrote:Yes, I am very cognizant of the US oil industry and export/import flows.


Given that you apparently believe that the EU is somehow dependant on the US for an irreplaceable part of its energy needs, no, you are not.



Your reading comprehension is down to it's usual standards.

If you review my previous posts, you will find that my comments about America sharing oil are predicated on a few certain or at least plausible events.

Because oil prices have imploded and storage capacity is running out, almost everyone has an incentive to cease production. The only obvious exception is Russia. If they stop pumping from their welllss in Siberia, they will freeze solid. The wells will have to be redrilled.

Saudi Arabia can stop and start pumping without damaging their wells or infrastructure. Saudi Arabia might keep pumping just to force Russia to cease production. Saudi and Kuwaiti production costs are the lowest in the world. Siberia is more expensive than America's hydraulic fracturing. Saudi will continue to produce enough to put Russia out of business. It will take years and hundreds of billions to restore Russian production.

The low oil prices are making it impossible for Iran to sell oil in violation of sanctions.

Both Iran and Russia have an overwhelming motive to destroy Saudi oil production to regain market and restore price. The US has no incentive to protect Saudi Arabia or Kuwait.

If Russian oil Wells become inoperable and Saudi, Kuwait, Iranian and other Gulf states oil industry is destroyed by a war, then 35 million barrels per day are gone from the world market. It will take only a few months to consume the oil glut in storage. Then the price soars
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