Time to read THE LAST CENTURION?

$30.00 per barrel costs explains why US fracking wells are not producing. That's more than the stuff sells for these days.

Annachie wrote:$30.00 per barrel costs explains why US fracking wells are not producing. That's more than the stuff sells for these days.

Agreed. However; the currently low price on the world market is a direct consequence of the sudden drop in demand by about 35 million barrels per day from 100 mbpd. Frakkers can continue producing from existing wells at a much lower operating cost as long as they temprarilly cease developing new wells. Trump is also buying to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Preserve to keep the frakkers solvent. If demand recovers as lockdowns are eased, the price will quickly rise to make drilling new wells to replace depleted wells profitable again. The drill rigs will still be there.

A more likely scenario is that much of Russia's production goes permenently off line as their shut in wells freeze solid. It is also plausible that the financial pressures of the oil glut will provoke a war between Iran and the other Persian Gulf states. The US obviously has no national interest or financial interest in intervening in such a war. It is actually in the US interest. It wouldn't take more than a few hundred missiles to take out Iran and Saudi Arabian as well as all other gulf states' oil production on a nearly permament basis. Russia might even launch such a missile strike to eliminate competition before their oil industry is destroyed. The reduced foreign production will restore the economic viability of the US Frakking industry which will very quickly reconstitute production. Restrictions on exports will enable America to enjoy the economic benefits of $30-$40 per barrel plus dirt cheap natural gas while the rest of the world is paying $100-$200 per barrel.

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/covid- ... reated-lab

And here is the smoking gun proves that it is Donald Trump's fault:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/conta ... r-BB12Q90W

Wow. Talk about lala land.

What company is going to sell for $30.00 to $40.00 per if they can sell it for closer to $100.00 per on the blackmarket?

Annachie wrote:Wow. Talk about lala land.

What company is going to sell for $30.00 to $40.00 per if they can sell it for closer to $100.00 per on the blackmarket?

Yeah, la-la land or fantasy island. The real illusion is that we could cut ourselves off from the reest of the world. In a scenario such as TFLY envisions, big oil would be more likely to sell to the highest bidder, government be dammed.

Doesn't sound like the typical small business model Republicans normally champion. Autocrat Trump would be reigned in by his real masters from Wall Street. They think that is their government. They bought it.

Don

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n7axw wrote:

Annachie wrote:Wow. Talk about lala land.

What company is going to sell for $30.00 to $40.00 per if they can sell it for closer to $100.00 per on the blackmarket?

Yeah, la-la land or fantasy island. The real illusion is that we could cut ourselves off from the reest of the world. In a scenario such as TFLY envisions, big oil would be more likely to sell to the highest bidder, government be dammed.

Doesn't sound like the typical small business model Republicans normally champion. Autocrat Trump would be reigned in by his real masters from Wall Street. They think that is their government. They bought it.

Don

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Exactly how would oil companies export to the black market from the US? This isn't Iraq where you can circumvent alleged UN sanctions by trucking the oil to Jordan, Syria or Turkey. The Continental US is isolated so the only way to transport oil in meaningful quantities is by ship. I am talking about big ships that have to dock at an oil terminals, not some random, secluded beach. Oil tankers will not be able to elude US surveillance. If they do, then they have to get to customers in Asia or Europe without the US Navy to protect them. Given such a scenario, there will be a lot of nations deploying light naval forces to intercept and divert oil tankers.

Keep in mind that the US oil industry has the capacity to meet US needs with a fully functional economy with only minimal surplus. We can ramp it up some, but not enough. The only region that imports from overseas is the West coast which is offset by exporting surplus from the Gulf coast. When foreign oil becomes unavailable, it will not be politically possible to export from the Gulf while California, Washington and Oregon have nothing. The same imbeciles who have been bleating about Global Warming will be demanding oil. Venezuela and Mexico can not offset the loss of Persian Gulf and Russian production. They can not export without the permission of the US anyway.

I find it amazing that people from the EU don't understand why US national interests might suddenly begin to take priority over the interests of private companies and individuals. Your European trading empire is predicated on forming a trading block that enhances your economies at the expense of everyone else's. It will be interesting to see how you will adapt to a very sudden shortage of oil when the US is no longer willing to guarantee freedom of navigation much less protect oil production in the Middle East and elsewhere.

As of the time of this posting, Worldmeters shows that Russia is now number 1 with the most new cases. However; it appears that only a few states in the US have been reported. Once all US new cases are counted, I expect the US to be #1 again. However; that will not last very long. I expect that Russia will be number 1 for new infections within a week and number 1 for total cases within a month. Given the large segment of Russia's population that is already stricken with AIDS and Turburculosis, the lethality rate is going to be ugly.

All of the Eurotrash on this forum will blame President Trump.

Well, it is official. The US is number 1 while Russia is number 2.

I'm now watching Brazil and some African countries whose daily growth rate exceeds 10%.

SNIP

n7axw wrote:Yeah, la-la land or fantasy island. The real illusion is that we could cut ourselves off from the reest of the world. In a scenario such as TFLY envisions, big oil would be more likely to sell to the highest bidder, government be dammed.

Don

Actually, the US Government CAN ban the sale of US-produced crude oil on the international market. In fact, up until recently (late 2015/early 2016 IIRC) that was exactly the case. The US banned international sales of US crude in 1975 following the Arab Oil Embargo. A US Oil company could import crude oil from overseas, refine it, then sell the refined products. No issues. But it was illegal to sell crude oil produced in the US on the international markets.

WeberFan wrote:SNIP

n7axw wrote:Yeah, la-la land or fantasy island. The real illusion is that we could cut ourselves off from the reest of the world. In a scenario such as TFLY envisions, big oil would be more likely to sell to the highest bidder, government be dammed.

Don

Actually, the US Government CAN ban the sale of US-produced crude oil on the international market. In fact, up until recently (late 2015/early 2016 IIRC) that was exactly the case. The US banned international sales of US crude in 1975 following the Arab Oil Embargo. A US Oil company could import crude oil from overseas, refine it, then sell the refined products. No issues. But it was illegal to sell crude oil produced in the US on the international markets.

Intriguing. Thanks for the input. A fellow learns something new every day.

Don

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WeberFan wrote:SNIP

n7axw wrote:Yeah, la-la land or fantasy island. The real illusion is that we could cut ourselves off from the reest of the world. In a scenario such as TFLY envisions, big oil would be more likely to sell to the highest bidder, government be dammed.

Don

Actually, the US Government CAN ban the sale of US-produced crude oil on the international market. In fact, up until recently (late 2015/early 2016 IIRC) that was exactly the case. The US banned international sales of US crude in 1975 following the Arab Oil Embargo. A US Oil company could import crude oil from overseas, refine it, then sell the refined products. No issues. But it was illegal to sell crude oil produced in the US on the international markets.

(And now maybe TFLY can tell us all about how for all that time US domestic oil prices were miraculously much lower somehow...)

I'll demonstrate my ignorance on these matters. Fly, you said that Mexico and Venezuela can't export oil without the permission of the US? Why? What would give the US the moral or legal right to enforce that?

Daryl wrote:I'll demonstrate my ignorance on these matters. Fly, you said that Mexico and Venezuela can't export oil without the permission of the US? Why? What would give the US the moral or legal right to enforce that?

It isn't an issue of morality or legality, but reality. The US Navy is preeminent. China might be able to challenge the US in the Western Pacific where they can bring land based bombers and missiles to bear, but force projection into the Caribbean is not plausible. Of course the US probably would not interfere with Mexico and Venezuela exporting crude, but European and Asian refineries can not process the Venezuela n sludge. The bottom line is that oil will be far less expensive for America.