Time to read THE LAST CENTURION?

TFLYTSNBN wrote:When "Empires" collapse, chaos reigns. Populations decline massively. Just look at the Roman Empire. Aztec, Inca, Mongol and others the same. Collapse equals massive death. USA actually has a motive to encourage anarchy and war amongst the barbarians. Russia is still imploding from the collapse of the Soviet Empire. Now you have a plague simultaneously with your oil revenues imploding. If Russia cuts oil production to deeply, your Wells freeze solid. It will take you years to redrill your Wells and bring oil production back on line.

Nah. Its only true for the situation, when there were no one either to immediately took its place. When British Empire collapsed in just a few yers, USA and USSR were here to immediately fill the void. Now, the China is ready to occupy the throne for themselves. I'm not saying that it would be plesant, but... well, they do buy our oil)

The E wrote:I wonder if that "growing evidence" he's referring to is just a metaphor for some psychoactive mold that's growing in his home's walls....

maybe clouds of weed smoke from his friendly local dealers that I seem to recall infest his neighbourhood?

As of the time of this post, Russia has risen to number 3 in new infections. However; the data for Italy and France hasn't been posted yet so Russia is probably only number 4.

Michael Everett wrote:

TFLYTSNBN wrote:When "Empires" collapse, chaos reigns. Populations decline massively.

And once again, English Pride compels me to note that the British Empire, the largest Empire in history and one that was run with a massive numerical imbalance between the British and the rest (seriously, entire regions were effectively run by only a score of Brits or less), recognized when it was heading towards the buffers and after putting down several uprisings, carefully dissolved itself while seeking to ensure that its former regions were able to remain stable.
Seriously, look at the former British colonies against those of Spain and France. The former British colonies are overwhelmingly civilized, generally keeping to the rule of law (with maybe one or two exceptions*). The majority of the Spanish and French colonies have to rely on Force of Arms to remain intact, assuming that they're not having yet another insurrection/civil war.
Some argue that the British Empire still exists under the name British Commonwealth, but they're mistaken. The UK doesn't rule over the Commonwealth, we're just another (albeit somewhat respected) member.

I don't think that the American Empire is collapsing because America never actually had an Empire. Instead, it had the Pax Americana, aka "Don't make us come over there and wave our guns at you".


*One example - America is a former colony (or group of colonies) and it had a civil war.

Amazing that I actually agree with your explanation here. While the British Empire was a classic empire that exploited it's colonies economically, England did leave it's colonies as mostly functional countries.

While the US flirted with becoming an empire after the Spanish American war, we never really got into it. The Philippines were far more trouble than they were worth even before WW2. You correctly characterize the US Post war regime as Pax Americana. We have had to fight some nasty wars to keep the peace or just preserve credibility such as Korea and Vietnam. The US could have abstained from the First Gulf War by developing it's own oil resources and nuclear power. This would have avoided 9-11, the Afghanistan war, the Iraq war, and all the interventions in Syria, Libya and others.

Now that the Coronavirus has reduced world energy consumption by about 35 million barrels per day, the US has absolutely zero incentive to intervene in the middle East. This coincides with the Gulf oil economies imploding. A war between Iran and Saudi Arabia is almost certain. The US will not intervene. About 20 million barrels per day in production will be destroyed.. Meanwhile in Siberia, Russia's oil Wells and infrastructure are freezing solid. If and when the Coronavirus crisis is over, there will be a huge oil shortage, except for the USA.

TFLYTSNBN wrote:
Now that the Coronavirus has reduced world energy consumption by about 35 million barrels per day, the US has absolutely zero incentive to intervene in the middle East. This coincides with the Gulf oil economies imploding. A war between Iran and Saudii Arabia is almost certain. The US will not intervene. About 20 million barrels per day in production will be destroyed.. Meanwhile in Siberia, Russia's oil Wells and infrastructure are freezing solid. If and when the Coronavirus crisis is over, there will be a huge oil shortage, except for the USA.

A couple of points here. You are right. We are potentially energy independent. But our independence would come at steep price. For energy to be cheap enough to fuel our economy, we need a functional world market. That might be good or bad. On the one hand, going to fuel up would be a lot more painful. On the other hand, it could also spur the development of nonfossil alternatives.

So in response to the paragraph above, we probably still do have an interest in keeping the lid on an Iran- Saudi war. I don't think we could just step back and let it happen without intervening.

Don

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n7axw wrote:

TFLYTSNBN wrote:
Now that the Coronavirus has reduced world energy consumption by about 35 million barrels per day, the US has absolutely zero incentive to intervene in the middle East. This coincides with the Gulf oil economies imploding. A war between Iran and Saudii Arabia is almost certain. The US will not intervene. About 20 million barrels per day in production will be destroyed.. Meanwhile in Siberia, Russia's oil Wells and infrastructure are freezing solid. If and when the Coronavirus crisis is over, there will be a huge oil shortage, except for the USA.

A couple of points here. You are right. We are potentially energy independent. But our independence would come at steep price. For energy to be cheap enough to fuel our economy, we need a functional world market. That might be good or bad. On the one hand, going to fuel up would be a lot more painful. On the other hand, it could also spur the development of nonfossil alternatives.

So in response to the paragraph above, we probably still do have an interest in keeping the lid on an Iran- Saudi war. I don't think we could just step back and let it happen without intervening.

Don

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Nope.

All the US has to do is with hold American oil from the world market. Oil then costs maybe $40 per barrel but $200 per barrel in Europe, Japan and South Korea. American manufacturing then has a huge competitive advantage. Of course there is not much of a market for American exports and not much to import, but the American economy is not import/export dependant anyway.

TFLYTSNBN wrote:

n7axw wrote:A couple of points here. You are right. We are potentially energy independent. But our independence would come at steep price. For energy to be cheap enough to fuel our economy, we need a functional world market. That might be good or bad. On the one hand, going to fuel up would be a lot more painful. On the other hand, it could also spur the development of nonfossil alternatives.

So in response to the paragraph above, we probably still do have an interest in keeping the lid on an Iran- Saudi war. I don't think we could just step back and let it happen without intervening.

Don

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Nope.

All the US has to do is with hold American oil from the world market. Oil then costs maybe $40 per barrel but $200 per barrel in Europe, Japan and South Korea. American manufacturing then has a huge competitive advantage.

Yeeeeah.... that's not how the oil markets work.

Michael Everett wrote:

TFLYTSNBN wrote:And once again, English Pride compels me to note that the British Empire, the largest Empire in history and one that was run with a massive numerical imbalance between the British and the rest (seriously, entire regions were effectively run by only a score of Brits or less), recognized when it was heading towards the buffers and after putting down several uprisings, carefully dissolved itself while seeking to ensure that its former regions were able to remain stable.
Seriously, look at the former British colonies against those of Spain and France. The former British colonies are overwhelmingly civilized, generally keeping to the rule of law (with maybe one or two exceptions*). The majority of the Spanish and French colonies have to rely on Force of Arms to remain intact, assuming that they're not having yet another insurrection/civil war.
Some argue that the British Empire still exists under the name British Commonwealth, but they're mistaken. The UK doesn't rule over the Commonwealth, we're just another (albeit somewhat respected) member.

I don't think that the American Empire is collapsing because America never actually had an Empire. Instead, it had the Pax Americana, aka "Don't make us come over there and wave our guns at you".


*One example - America is a former colony (or group of colonies) and it had a civil war.

Amazing that I actually agree with your explanation here. While the British Empire was a classic empire that exploited it's colonies economically, England did leave it's colonies as mostly functional countries.

While the US flirted with becoming an empire after the Spanish American war, we never really got into it. The Philippines were far more trouble than they were worth even before WW2. You correctly characterize the US Post war regime as Pax Americana. We have had to fight some nasty wars to keep the peace or just preserve credibility such as Korea and Vietnam. The US could have abstained from the First Gulf War by developing it's own oil resources and nuclear power. This would have avoided 9-11, the Afghanistan war, the Iraq war, and all the interventions in Syria, Libya and others.

Now that the Coronavirus has reduced world energy consumption by about 35 million barrels per day, the US has absolutely zero incentive to intervene in the middle East. This coincides with the Gulf oil economies imploding. A war between Iran and Saudi Arabia is almost certain. The US will not intervene. About 20 million barrels per day in production will be destroyed.. Meanwhile in Siberia, Russia's oil Wells and infrastructure are freezing solid. If and when the Coronavirus crisis is over, there will be a huge oil shortage, except for the USA.

One point you seem to have missed is all oil is not born equal. For example Venezuela has the largest oils reserves but that oil is frankly a crap grade of oil. It is ecologically more damaging to refine and use. It also has much smaller fractions that can be refined into gasoline and/or diesel fuels. Light sweet crude is what the US wants and needs.

TFLYTSNBN wrote:
Nope.

All the US has to do is with hold American oil from the world market. Oil then costs maybe $40 per barrel but $200 per barrel in Europe, Japan and South Korea. American manufacturing then has a huge competitive advantage. Of course there is not much of a market for American exports and not much to import, but the American economy is not import/export dependant anyway.

Disagree. Much of the oil that would keep us energy independent is from those tar sands and is difficult to extract and from fracking. Anyone thinking that this would be cheap is dreaming because that's not how it would work out.

Don

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Now we know why the lethality rate in Germany is so low:

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2 ... oronavirus

The two previous posters commenting on the economics of oil are obviously misinformed. The vast majority of US oil consumption and production is from hydraulic fracturing. The development and production cost is now down to about $30 per barrel. We need the pipelines that Obama obstructed to reduce transportation cost and enhance safety, but we have cheap oil.

The comments about Venezuelan crude are correct. It is nasty sludge. The only refineries in the world that can process that shit are in the USA. Ditto for tar sands. However; it is advantageous for the US to blend these shitty crudes with the extremely light crude from frakking to ease refining. US refineries actually pay a premium for Canadian and Venezuelan crude to blend with frakking crude. Since the Canadian provinces that produce oil are effectively landlocked, the US is their only market.

The bottom line is that the US is now more energy secure Than we have been since WW2. It is the rest of the world that is screwed.

It will be interesting to see if China decides to secure and reconstitute it's oil supplies by conquering Siberia. It would be like THE BEAR AND THE DRAGON, but without the US rescuing Russia.