Time to read THE LAST CENTURION?

Seems that USA finally get over the curve. Glad to see that! Hope you all stay safe!

Dilandu wrote:Seems that USA finally get over the curve. Glad to see that! Hope you all stay safe!

Thank you for that. Having the CDC bureaucrats FUCK UP BEYOND RECOGNITION the initial test kits because they were to proud to use an imported test set us back.

Then there is this gem from San Francisco:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... y-district

Just about everyone, myself included, underestimated this virus. We are now paying for it.

I forgot this gem of Nancy Pelossi:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... y-district

The news coming out of Russia is alarming. Only 18,000 cases but the daily growth rate in confirmed cases is growing by over 10%! Within a month, Russia could have more cases than the US! Given age structure, AIDS and Turburculos, the lethality rate could be grim.

Dilandu wrote:Seems that USA finally get over the curve. Glad to see that! Hope you all stay safe!

I don't wanna spread doom and gloom, but I wouldn't go that far yet. First of all, it's the Easter weekend. Many tested samples might still be in limbo and only processed after the weekend is over.

But more importantly, you gotta take a look at the number of tests vs the number of positive results. If you manage to get the spread under control, you'd expect to see lots of tests with the majority being negative, and only few positive. This is not the case for the US right now.

Just taking current numbers from Worldometer:

Yesterday, there were 2,832,258 tests, and today it's showing 2,933,476 so far, that's roughly 100k tests. And so far, todays newly infected are at 23k, so almost a quarter. Out of four people tested, one was positive. That's still pretty high. And it gets worse for New York. There we're (right now) at 17k tests and 5.6k new positives - one out of three. New Jersey is at 4.4k tests and 2.7k new positives - more than 50%.

It's hard to compare this to other countries since they don't update their tests daily, but Italy for example (which is over the curve) shows 36k new tests for 4k new positives, so a bit over 10%.

The significance of this is that the "curve leveling off" might not be due to the outbreak slowing down - but rather to testing capability leveling off.

clancy688 wrote:

Dilandu wrote:Seems that USA finally get over the curve. Glad to see that! Hope you all stay safe!

I don't wanna spread doom and gloom, but I wouldn't go that far yet. First of all, it's the Easter weekend. Many tested samples might still be in limbo and only processed after the weekend is over.

But more importantly, you gotta take a look at the number of tests vs the number of positive results. If you manage to get the spread under control, you'd expect to see lots of tests with the majority being negative, and only few positive. This is not the case for the US right now.

Just taking current numbers from Worldometer:

Yesterday, there were 2,832,258 tests, and today it's showing 2,933,476 so far, that's roughly 100k tests. And so far, todays newly infected are at 23k, so almost a quarter. Out of four people tested, one was positive. That's still pretty high. And it gets worse for New York. There we're (right now) at 17k tests and 5.6k new positives - one out of three. New Jersey is at 4.4k tests and 2.7k new positives - more than 50%.

It's hard to compare this to other countries since they don't update their tests daily, but Italy for example (which is over the curve) shows 36k new tests for 4k new positives, so a bit over 10%.

The significance of this is that the "curve leveling off" might not be due to the outbreak slowing down - but rather to testing capability leveling off.

Unfortunately, the capacity for testing here is very small in comparison to what needs to be done. The notion that some places are leveling off is basicly being developed from entries into the hospitals and deaths. NYC has, for example, reached a point where they are no longer being threatened with having their capacity overwhelmed. Also numbers of deaths is starting to decline. In the absence of widespread testing, that is really the only way it can be done.

Oh, by the way, we learned today that Trump think he has the capability to open up the country by his decree. Evidently we have a king, not a president.

Don

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If he opens up the country now, we have neither a king, nor a president. We have a murderer.

cthia wrote:If he opens up the country now, we have neither a king, nor a president. We have a murderer.

Unfortunately being president or king is not incompatible with being a murderer. One can think of lots of times when the two went hand in glove.

Don

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So the first months of the outbreak... Trump is constantly telling the governors to do things on their own, make their own decisions, get their own equipment, it's not his responsibility, anything that goes wrong is their responsibility, the buck stops anywhere BUT Trump...

Then the announcement comes that they think the US has crested the peak...

Yesterday Trump declares as president he has total authority over all things and the Governors have to do everything he says and they can't do anything without his permission his authority is TOTAL as president of the United States.

It's peak Trump. Will never take responsibility for anything he does, but will always insist on credit whether he has anything to do with it or not.

(And, you know, abject ignorance of the way the US government works 3 years into his freaking job leading it)

gcomeau wrote:So the first months of the outbreak... Trump is constantly telling the governors to do things on their own, make their own decisions, get their own equipment, it's not his responsibility, anything that goes wrong is their responsibility, the buck stops anywhere BUT Trump...

Then the announcement comes that they think the US has crested the peak...

Yesterday Trump declares as president he has total authority over all things and the Governors have to do everything he says and they can't do anything without his permission his authority is TOTAL as president of the United States.

It's peak Trump. Will never take responsibility for anything he does, but will always insist on credit whether he has anything to do with it or not.

(And, you know, abject ignorance of the way the US government works 3 years into his freaking job leading it)

Not to mention that he has no clue that the 10th exists.

Joat42 wrote:Not to mention that he has no clue that the 10th exists.

...the 10th what?

Michael Everett wrote:

Joat42 wrote:Not to mention that he has no clue that the 10th exists.

...the 10th what?

Amendment.

Basically the powers of the US Federal government are only those explicity granted to it, the rest belongs to the states.