Time to read THE LAST CENTURION?

isaac_newton wrote:

doug941 wrote:
Not even going to try arguing one way or the other, but you asked for specifics. http://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries as of April 2 2020 23:04 GMT lists Sweden with 5,568 total cases and 308 total deaths. This equates to a death rate of 5.532% of persons infected. The same time frame for the US lists cases/deaths as 243,298/5,883 or 2.418%.
Just for fits and shiggles to name a few, Italy is 115,242/13,915 or 12.075%; Spain with 112,065/10,348 or 9.234%; Germany with 84,794/1,107 or 1.306%; France with 59,105/5,387 or 9.115%; Iran with 50,468/3,160 or 6.261%; The UK with 33,718/2,921 or 8.662%.
Of European NON-microstates, Montenegro comes out near the top with 144/2 or 1.389%.

so you are happy - giggling - about deaths in other countries. nice.

one factor that you omit that makes country by country comparison v difficult is the way that C19 deaths are actually 'registered' in each country. So its a bit like saying 2 feet is more than 1 meter.

So who exactly is "Giggling" about deaths or even simply infections? It sure as hell isn't me. I wouldn't be giggling even if Comrade Vladimir or Kim Jung-Un tested positive. The ONLY humor I found in this string, to the point I found anything humorous, was Joat saying looking at the time. Every country's infection data I've seen as posted on a 2D graph shows a slow rising ramp followed by a steep rise. Italy, Spain and Sweden are 1 1/2 to 2 weeks behind the US in infections, so their numbers of infections and deaths should likewise fall behind. Problem is they are not.
As to comparing apples and oranges in country by country data? Since the numbers I quoted were supplied by the WHO, they should have had much of the national idiosyncrasies ironed out.

For a sign of just how on the ball handling of this issue is in the US, while Trump continues to refuse to issue a national stay at home order even while his own medical experts are standing up at his own briefings saying how important it is that everyone in the country follow the stay at home guidelines and they can see that it ISN'T HAPPENING... yesterday the governor of Georgia declared to the entire country that he JUST found out people who were asymptomatic were contagious and so he was finally issuing a stay at home order for his state.

The GOVERNOR of Georgia. The guy in charge of response to this for his state in the absence of any federal leadership or direction.

That information has been in briefings on the virus for MONTHS. Apparently, he's never actually bothered reading or watching one until YESTERDAY. I can only assume he's been getting all his info on the virus from whatever the hell source Imaginos is getting his from.

A few minor points to take into account.

1) American society has a notable skew towards Rugged Individualism and don't like to take orders that go against "Muh Lebutti", so stay-at-home orders are likely to be widely ignored, especially by those who suffer from Trump Derangement Syndrome.

2) American news media is somewhat limited, comparatively speaking. Local papers are relatively common, but that's generally city- or town- papers. While there are a couple of National Papers, the most famous seems to be the Enquirer, which is... yeah. Not exactly no. 1 for factual info. Much of the television news has been generally banging on for years about how "Orange Man Bad! Orange Man Wrong!", meaning that now they're going "Orange Man may have Point", their audience has been programmed by them to ignore the President.

3) The American education system (as noted in different threads) is somewhat light on several aspects, such as everything outside America. It would not surprise me to learn that many Americans somehow think that because the term "China Virus" has been used, it only affects those who are from China. As such, they would not be able to understand the need for a lock-down.

As a result, it looks like things will get... noisy.

Michael Everett wrote:A few minor points to take into account.

1) American society has a notable skew towards Rugged Individualism and don't like to take orders that go against "Muh Lebutti", so stay-at-home orders are likely to be widely ignored, especially by those who suffer from Trump Derangement Syndrome.

If by "Trump Derangement Syndrome" you mean people deranged enough to support Trump. Because...

https://static01.nyt.com/images/2020/04 ... mbo-v4.jpg

That map of where people are not reducing their travel is basically a map of who voted for Trump.

2) American news media is somewhat limited, comparatively speaking. Local papers are relatively common, but that's generally city- or town- papers. While there are a couple of National Papers, the most famous seems to be the Enquirer, which is... yeah. Not exactly no. 1 for factual info. Much of the television news has been generally banging on for years about how "Orange Man Bad! Orange Man Wrong!",

This is like complaining about the boy who cried wolf always crying wolf... when wolves have actually been eating the fucking sheep every night.

meaning that now they're going "Orange Man may have Point", their audience has been programmed by them to ignore the President.

You mean, ignoring his constant contradictions of medical professionals for the last 2 months? So all those people you claim are not going to listen to stay at home orders were the FIRST people to implement them while Trump dragged his feet and tried to pretend there was nothing to worry about because he thought it would reflect badly on him if he said it was a serious problem?

Seriously, you have clearly been paying no attention whatsoever to what has been going on in the US.

3) The American education system (as noted in different threads) is somewhat light on several aspects, such as everything outside America. It would not surprise me to learn that many Americans somehow think that because the term "China Virus" has been used, it only affects those who are from China. As such, they would not be able to understand the need for a lock-down.

This one I will somewhat grant you. At least for a certain segment of the US population.

gcomeau wrote:If by "Trump Derangement Syndrome" you mean people deranged enough to support Trump. Because...

https://static01.nyt.com/images/2020/04 ... mbo-v4.jpg

That map of where people are not reducing their travel is basically a map of who voted for Trump.

It actually isn't, to some degree.

Yes, there definitely is an overlap between counties that voted for the orange trumpet and that map, but there also is an overlap between that map and a map that tracks the average distance between people's homes and where they get their groceries; In those sparsely populated areas, it's not uncommon that people will have to travel a couple of miles to get everything they need.

(And even in those areas, a lot of them do fall into the "40 to 60% less travel" categories)

The E wrote:

gcomeau wrote:If by "Trump Derangement Syndrome" you mean people deranged enough to support Trump. Because...

https://static01.nyt.com/images/2020/04 ... mbo-v4.jpg

That map of where people are not reducing their travel is basically a map of who voted for Trump.

It actually isn't, to some degree.

Yes, there definitely is an overlap between counties that voted for the orange trumpet and that map, but there also is an overlap between that map and a map that tracks the average distance between people's homes and where they get their groceries; In those sparsely populated areas, it's not uncommon that people will have to travel a couple of miles to get everything they need.

(And even in those areas, a lot of them do fall into the "40 to 60% less travel" categories)

I have seen the miles traveled map for which that could be a valid observation... but that map isn't it. That map is a "reduction in travel" map. Red is normal travel relative to pre-outbreak levels, not just "high miles traveled".

Michael Everett wrote:A few minor points to take into account.

1) American society has a notable skew towards Rugged Individualism and don't like to take orders that go against "Muh Lebutti", so stay-at-home orders are likely to be widely ignored, especially by those who suffer from Trump Derangement Syndrome.

2) American news media is somewhat limited, comparatively speaking. Local papers are relatively common, but that's generally city- or town- papers. While there are a couple of National Papers, the most famous seems to be the Enquirer, which is... yeah. Not exactly no. 1 for factual info. Much of the television news has been generally banging on for years about how "Orange Man Bad! Orange Man Wrong!", meaning that now they're going "Orange Man may have Point", their audience has been programmed by them to ignore the President.

3) The American education system (as noted in different threads) is somewhat light on several aspects, such as everything outside America. It would not surprise me to learn that many Americans somehow think that because the term "China Virus" has been used, it only affects those who are from China. As such, they would not be able to understand the need for a lock-down.

As a result, it looks like things will get... noisy.

You post this insulting drivel when everyone chastises me for using the word "Eurotrash.?". There is no one in America who believes that the Chinavirus only infects Chinese people.

When I started this thread not so long ago, I thought that it would be merely a subject for interesting and probably acrymonious debate. Dilandu chastised me for being a scared old lady. Now everyone is having that "oh shit" revelation. It isn't fun anymore even though I continue to hurl a bit of feces at the people who deserve it.

A few points to take note of. The infection rates and fatalities from the Coronavirus remain trivial. However; the lethality rate has rebounded to 20% (fatalities verses recoveries, not total cases. You have to understand math not just arythmatic) . Continued exponential growth will result in a humongous death toll. Although social distancing and quarantines have enabled the doubling time to triple from one week to three weeks, the growth remains exponential. Without the social distancing and quarantines, we would have about 4 million infected. Even if we can maintain an average daily growth rate of 1.04, we will have billions of infected people within half a year.

Social distancing and quarantines are inflicting enormous financial costs on societies. These financial costs will become deadly. If modern societies and the global order imposed by America collapse, the lethality rate will be much higher than 20%. The implosion in oil prices will probably provoke wars between OPEC+ nations. Leaders have to consider economics as well as epidemiology. Given the complex industrial ecology that supports modern food production, it is extremely difficult for leaders to make intelligent decisions about what businesses are essential. If the economy collapses, there will be no medical equipment and supplies. President Trump disagrees with some of his medical advisers because he can't fixate totally on the medical problem. He has to protect the society, not just the patients. Ditto for every other world leader. They all will make mistakes. Hopefully; some will make enough correct decisions to enable survival.

TFLYTSNBN wrote:You post this insulting drivel when everyone chastises me for using the word "Eurotrash.?". There is no one in America who believes that the Chinavirus only infects Chinese people.

When I started this thread not so long ago, I thought that it would be merely a subject for interesting and probably acrymonious debate. Dilandu chastised me for being a scared old lady. Now everyone is having that "oh shit" revelation. It isn't fun anymore even though I continue to hurl a bit of feces at the people who deserve it.

A few points to take note of. The infection rates and fatalities from the Coronavirus remain trivial. However; the lethality rate has rebounded to 20% (fatalities verses recoveries, not total cases. You have to understand math not just arythmatic) .

You also have to understand basic information about how disease progression works. Recoveries are a hugely lagging indicator relative to cases and fatalities. Recoveries will peak last.

Social distancing and quarantines are inflicting enormous financial costs on societies. These financial costs will become deadly. If modern societies and the global order imposed by America collapse, the lethality rate will be much higher than 20%. The implosion in oil prices will probably provoke wars between OPEC+ nations. Leaders have to consider economics as well as epidemiology. Given the complex industrial ecology that supports modern food production, it is extremely difficult for leaders to make intelligent decisions about what businesses are essential. If the economy collapses, there will be no medical equipment and supplies. President Trump disagrees with some of his medical advisers because he can't fixate totally on the medical problem.

He disagrees with his medical advisors because he is a narcissistic idiot who is concerned only with how all of this reflects on him, who has only recently been sort of kinda wrestled into not constantly openly contradicting them by the very late realization that huge piles of dead Americans *also* will reflect badly on him, not just a down stock market.

FFS, he has *multiple times* during this crisis bragged about how his coronavirus briefings are getting good ratings. And the other day while in the middle of a briefing on the increasing death toll we got "Number one on Facebook. Did you know I was number one on Facebook? I just found out I'm number one on Facebook." Because he just. cannot. help. himself.

These constant absurd attempts by you to pretend like anything Trump does is the product of some deeply thought out strategic calculation are just sad.

gcomeau wrote:

TFLYTSNBN wrote:You post this insulting drivel when everyone chastises me for using the word "Eurotrash.?". There is no one in America who believes that the Chinavirus only infects Chinese people.

When I started this thread not so long ago, I thought that it would be merely a subject for interesting and probably acrymonious debate. Dilandu chastised me for being a scared old lady. Now everyone is having that "oh shit" revelation. It isn't fun anymore even though I continue to hurl a bit of feces at the people who deserve it.

A few points to take note of. The infection rates and fatalities from the Coronavirus remain trivial. However; the lethality rate has rebounded to 20% (fatalities verses recoveries, not total cases. You have to understand math not just arythmatic) .

You also have to understand basic information about how disease progression works. Recoveries are a hugely lagging indicator relative to cases and fatalities. Recoveries will peak last.

Social distancing and quarantines are inflicting enormous financial costs on societies. These financial costs will become deadly. If modern societies and the global order imposed by America collapse, the lethality rate will be much higher than 20%. The implosion in oil prices will probably provoke wars between OPEC+ nations. Leaders have to consider economics as well as epidemiology. Given the complex industrial ecology that supports modern food production, it is extremely difficult for leaders to make intelligent decisions about what businesses are essential. If the economy collapses, there will be no medical equipment and supplies. President Trump disagrees with some of his medical advisers because he can't fixate totally on the medical problem.

He disagrees with his medical advisors because he is a narcissistic idiot who is concerned only with how all of this reflects on him, who has only recently been sort of kinda wrestled into not constantly openly contradicting them by the very late realization that huge piles of dead Americans *also* will reflect badly on him, not just a down stock market.

FFS, he has *multiple times* during this crisis bragged about how his coronavirus briefings are getting good ratings. And the other day while in the middle of a briefing on the increasing death toll we got "Number one on Facebook. Did you know I was number one on Facebook? I just found out I'm number one on Facebook." Because he just. cannot. help. himself.

These constant absurd attempts by you to pretend like anything Trump does is the product of some deeply thought out strategic calculation are just sad.

As usual, you went full fucktard.

Here is an excellent discussion of the hazards of calculating lethality rate:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... e/#correct

Because the doubling rate has increased so that it is comparable to the time from infection to either death or recovery, a comparison between current deaths vs recoveries is valid. I will be Happy to revise this calculation when the pandemic recedes and we can do more comprehensive testing.

You not only suffer from Trump Derangement Syndrome, you are seriously fucked in the head. As an example, you cite the fact that Trump supporters have reduced their traveling less than Hillary supporters during the lockdowns. What you ignore is that Trump supporters are far more likely to be working in industries that are vital to everyone's survival while Hillary supporters are more likely to be unemployed or useless drones working in jobs that serve no useful purpose.

The truth is that the medical experts have fucked up bigly. The CDC developed a Covidvirus test that was useless. Their future projections of infections have also been grossly exaggerated. When the experts are making so many mistakes, it is prudent for President Trump to factor in other considerations when making the hard decisions.

doug941 wrote:As to comparing apples and oranges in country by country data? Since the numbers I quoted were supplied by the WHO, they should have had much of the national idiosyncrasies ironed out.

No, the measuring methods differ which makes it impossible to directly compare them. The only way to do any type of comparison is look at the trends.

Here's good article describing the problem:
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/2020 ... tes-differ

Even if you’re careful to compare the same type of fatality rate across countries, it’s easy to see how testing more, or fewer, people would change the results.

In fact, the lack of widespread, systematic testing in most countries is the main source of discrepancies in death rates internationally, says Dietrich Rothenbacher, director of the Institute of Epidemiology and Medical Biometry at the University of Ulm in Germany.

As a result, the current figures are “not at all” directly comparable between countries, he says. This is because, to get an accurate figure across a population, it is necessary to test not just symptomatic cases, but asymptomatic people too. Having that data would give an accurate picture of how the pandemic is affecting whole populations, not just the sick.

“Currently we have a huge bias in the numbers coming from different countries – therefore the data are not directly comparable,” he says. “What we need to really have valid and comparable numbers would be a defined and systematic way to choose a representative sampling frame.”