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Galactic Sapper wrote:

cthia wrote:That's my take on it too. Most systems won't be able to foot the tab. Dunno about the Big 4 - not the tab, but the time to install the system. Depending on the timeline.

However, I'm thinking the Lennys won't, or shouldn't, prematurely broadcast themselves to the galaxy "We're back!!!," by attacking smaller systems first. That's the biggest mistake they've made overall. The Lennys maiden voyage should go straight for the jugular. No pussyfooting around with peripheral systems, activating Case Zulus around the galaxy.

Lesser systems probably wouldn't even warrant a fleet of Lennys. The Sharks that did Oyster Bay could trash a Marsh-tier system by themselves with the level of overkill OB lacked. The MAlign could use the ships that have been more-or-less "outed" without revealing the capabilities of the Lennys.

I call the Big 4, Manticore, Haven, SL, Grayson. Although I forgot the Andermani. And probably should include Beowulf.

I hadn't thought about the havoc the Sharks could wreak. But my point still stands. I don't think the MA should attack any system other than the BIG 5 when they reemerge, because any subsequent attack will immediately send everyone to DEFCON 1.

cthia wrote:

Jonathan_S wrote:[
That's my take on it too. Most systems won't be able to foot the tab. Dunno about the Big 4 - not the tab, but the time to install the system. Depending on the timeline.

However, I'm thinking the Lennys won't, or shouldn't, prematurely broadcast themselves to the galaxy "We're back!!!," by attacking smaller systems first. That's the biggest mistake they've made overall. The Lennys maiden voyage should go straight for the jugular. No pussyfooting around with peripheral systems, activating Case Zulus around the galaxy.

I certainly agree it doesn't make sense for the MAlign to reveal the Lenny Dets just to smash up some 3rd rate system.

But note that systems that probably haven't had the time or money to put in as extensive a grav sensor array as Manticore could easily include Trevor's Star or Lynx. The later is especially interesting as it opens the possibility of using Spider ships as the jaws of a trap on the wormhole exit -- with the bait being some more conventional threat to the Cluster to lure a sizable Home Fleet detachment through. (Because, yes the new forts at Lynx are tough, and have a crazy amount of firepower. But I'm not sure they can survive a zero-warning point-blank surprise attack. And if they can't then the Lenny Dets could be in position to club anything coming through the terminus like it was a defenseless baby seal)

But in general just because the system is of secondary importance doesn't mean that you can find, or lure, valuable fleet elements there to ambush.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:No, the MAlign must be thinking of using those Lenny Dets some other way. And right now I can't think of how the spider drive can be useful. I suspect RFC has some cards up his sleeve he hasn't revealed yet.

You're assuming they realize they can't get away with another stealth attack. They're so overconfident I can easily see them not realizing it.

Jonathan_S wrote:I certainly agree it doesn't make sense for the MAlign to reveal the Lenny Dets just to smash up some 3rd rate system.

But note that systems that probably haven't had the time or money to put in as extensive a grav sensor array as Manticore could easily include Trevor's Star or Lynx. The later is especially interesting as it opens the possibility of using Spider ships as the jaws of a trap on the wormhole exit -- with the bait being some more conventional threat to the Cluster to lure a sizable Home Fleet detachment through. (Because, yes the new forts at Lynx are tough, and have a crazy amount of firepower. But I'm not sure they can survive a zero-warning point-blank surprise attack. And if they can't then the Lenny Dets could be in position to club anything coming through the terminus like it was a defenseless baby seal)

But in general just because the system is of secondary importance doesn't mean that you can find, or lure, valuable fleet elements there to ambush.

I'm not prepared to think any of the Big 5 will have time to design, test and implement a system to cover the entire sphere. And, if MA operatives can at least point them to where the "cameras" are, they can still sneak in anyway. Coming in with other ships when they open the door (LOL) is brilliant, but your overall plan is devious. You should kick that upstairs. I always said the Lenny's would turn the art of wormhole assault on its ear. If they're thorough enough, they may even be able to prevent a call for help, or alerting the enemy by tripping a Case Zulu.

If they could lure a significant chunk of Home Fleet to their doom, that might be worth it. But any Case Zulus are going to be carrying news of an unconventional attack. The Admiralty will have to assume the system is completely lost to whoever - could do what they did in OB - returning with a vengeance.

However, I'm still concerned about the MA prematurely alerting the enemy. Submarine warfare is more devastating in the early battles before the enemy can adjust. Taking wormholes will alert the enemy. But if the MA can achieve the holy grail of the galactic coordination of forces, and, simultaneously lower dark clouds everywhere at once...

Darn, your scenario has got me all excited. BTW, I suppose the MAN could name any ships whose mission is to lure the enemy to their death, SIRENS. LOL

The Lenny's will turn the art of wormhole assault on its ear.

cthia wrote:

Jonathan_S wrote:But note that systems that probably haven't had the time or money to put in as extensive a grav sensor array as Manticore could easily include Trevor's Star or Lynx. The later is especially interesting as it opens the possibility of using Spider ships as the jaws of a trap on the wormhole exit -- with the bait being some more conventional threat to the Cluster to lure a sizable Home Fleet detachment through. (Because, yes the new forts at Lynx are tough, and have a crazy amount of firepower. But I'm not sure they can survive a zero-warning point-blank surprise attack. And if they can't then the Lenny Dets could be in position to club anything coming through the terminus like it was a defenseless baby seal)

But in general just because the system is of secondary importance doesn't mean that you can find, or lure, valuable fleet elements there to ambush.

The key word there being "sizeable".

I'm not prepared to think any of the Big 5 will have time to design, test and implement a system to cover the entire sphere. And, if MA operatives can at least point them to where the "cameras" are, they can still sneak in. Coming in with other ships when they open the door (LOL) is brilliant, but your overall plan is devious. You should kick that upstairs. I always said the Lenny's would turn the art of wormhole assault on its ear. If they're thorough enough, they may even be able to prevent a call for help, or alerting the enemy by tripping a Case Zulu.

If they could lure a significant chunk of Home Fleet to their doom, that might be worth it. But any Case Zulus are going to be carrying news of an unconventional attack. The Admiralty will have to assume the system is completely lost to whoever could do what they did in OB, returning with a vengeance.

The problem is that the size of the Home Fleet that can transit, even in a mass transit, is small. You can maybe trap half of Home Fleet, if you're lucky: about 30 SD(P)s. That's less than a quarter of the active (future) RMN and doesn't count any of the reserves. And again, Trojan Horse: once the tactic is used, it can't be used again.

I also doubt this attack would work: to call Home Fleet in the first place, you need to allow the Case Zulu warning to go through, serious enough to warrant a mass transit. That means the forts are still there and they have their bubble walls up. And that means there's still traffic from Lynx with updates on the situation. Should that traffic stop, Home Fleet wouldn't transit. Any third-class spacer knows that a ship is completely vulnerable after transit. And the RMN did exactly this trap in Ajay-Prime during the war, so students and admirals alike will have studied the operation.

However, I'm still concerned about the MA prematurely alerting the enemy. Submarine warfare is more devastating in the early battles before the enemy can adjust. Taking wormholes will alert the enemy. But if the MA can achieve the holy grail of the galactic coordination of forces, and, simultaneously lower dark clouds everywhere at once...

That's an interesting comparison: submarine warfare. That may be exactly what RFC was thinking about and is aiming at, with twists though.

But, again, the cat is already out of the bag.

To achieve total domination with Lenny Dets like you're describing, the MAN would need at least a thousand ships. Even if the can build 100 ships in parallel in their yards, that will take 25-30 years to build, during which time they can become obsolete.

I can see how the MAlign leadership would go for this plan and others that we've discussed upthread. I'm simply saying I don't think they're very good plans (or at all).

I can't take credit for the comparison to submarine warfare. That has already been established and obviously rfc's intent.

Why would there need to be thousands of ships to devastate the Big 5? A squadron of Lennys dropped off in a system, with the equivalent of invisible carriers spewing out shoals of Sharks (Wait, how big is a Shark, I simply gotta ask Jayne out to lunch), ought to do the trick. Besides, I was under the impression there would be assistance from conventional ships, I'm assuming as a nasty distraction. In conjunction with some of the GAs captains succumbing to suicide or amnesia by nanite.

Remember, they only need to control the orbitals to demand a surrender. It's the old football tactic "Control the ass and the head will follow."

cthia wrote:Why would there need to be thousands of ships to devastate the Big 5?

Because, first of all, one of those 5 isn't a single system. There are tens of highly industrialised worlds in the SL and the shipyards are in multiple systems. So let's low-ball and say that they need to attack 25 well-defended systems.

At the same time.

A squadron of Lennys dropped off in a system, with the equivalent of invisible carriers spewing out shoals of Sharks (Wait, how big is a Shark, I simply gotta ask Jayne out to lunch), ought to do the trick. Besides, I was under the impression there would be assistance from conventional ships, I'm assuming as a nasty distraction. In conjunction with some of the GAs captains succumbing to suicide or amnesia by nanite.

Remember, they only need to control the orbitals to demand a surrender. It's the old football tactic "Control the ass and the head will follow."

25*8 is still 200 ships. I don't think a squadron suffices to take all warships, which don't have predictable positions (and remain that way because the cat is out of the bag). And I think total victory would require more than 25 systems simultaneously attacked.

Not to mention this is the worst coordination possible, worse than what Parnell greenlit for the beginning of the First Havenite-Manticoran War. Each of those task forces need to insert a year ahead of time in order to attack in stealth.

cthia wrote:I can't take credit for the comparison to submarine warfare. That has already been established and obviously rfc's intent.

Why would there need to be thousands of ships to devastate the Big 5? A squadron of Lennys dropped off in a system, with the equivalent of invisible carriers spewing out shoals of Sharks (Wait, how big is a Shark, I simply gotta ask Jayne out to lunch), ought to do the trick. Besides, I was under the impression there would be assistance from conventional ships, I'm assuming as a nasty distraction. In conjunction with some of the GAs captains succumbing to suicide or amnesia by nanite.

Remember, they only need to control the orbitals to demand a surrender. It's the old football tactic "Control the ass and the head will follow."

The Sharks were described as "Between a Battleship and Dreadnaught in size" That range kinda varies, given RHN Triumphant BBs were 4.5 Mtons and the ancient Ad Astra DNs were 3.8 Mtons, with the modern description being either 5.5 or 6 Mtons as the starting mass for DNs. (the Royal Winton massed 5.8 MTons, so I'd side with 5.5 being the modern dividing line)

Most of our guesses have been in the 5-5.5 MTon category, but you would not any more correct if you guessed anywhere from 3.5-6, given what we've been told.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:The problem is that the size of the Home Fleet that can transit, even in a mass transit, is small. You can maybe trap half of Home Fleet, if you're lucky: about 30 SD(P)s. That's less than a quarter of the active (future) RMN and doesn't count any of the reserves. And again, Trojan Horse: once the tactic is used, it can't be used again.

I also doubt this attack would work: to call Home Fleet in the first place, you need to allow the Case Zulu warning to go through, serious enough to warrant a mass transit. That means the forts are still there and they have their bubble walls up. And that means there's still traffic from Lynx with updates on the situation. Should that traffic stop, Home Fleet wouldn't transit. Any third-class spacer knows that a ship is completely vulnerable after transit. And the RMN did exactly this trap in Ajay-Prime during the war, so students and admirals alike will have studied the operation.

My thought was for cross system coordinated action (despite the risks that entails).

Sneak the Lenny Dets into close ambush position of the Lynx terminus. Use conventional Cataphract armed forces to attack one or more systems deeper in the Talbot cluster - who will send off a Case Zulu. That's the bate to lure Home Fleet to Lynx - not an attack on Lynx. Then once the first heavy units transit into Lynx the Lenny Dets strike - decapitating the terminus forts and crushing each transiting ship.
In that scenario they'd prefer Home Fleet to transit in sequence. Manticore wouldn't expect return couriers while the womrhole controllers are focused on a larger minim safe separation transit (or if sending at minimum possible then there wouldn't be any 'slots' for return traffic). Coming one at a time lets more total ships into the trap - while reducing the changes that a couple ships from a mass transit can survive long enough to get clear and raise wedge, sidewalls, and be able to launch missiles.

I don't know that it would work. But that idea isn't to lure them by launching an attack on the terminus - (as you say Manticore might believe it lost and send forces the long way). It was to stage an attack to deeper in that would cause reinforcements to be rushed through the wormhole.

Though I supposed if the Lenny Dets wanted to hang around for months they'd still get a bit of a shot at ambushing any relief force arriving through hyper. But those'd be tougher targets since they'd be in a mutually supporting formation and have full use of their maneuverability, weapons, and defenses.

Jonathan_S wrote:Sneak the Lenny Dets into close ambush position of the Lynx terminus.

Six to nine months before the attack. Though it's easy to confirm they are in position at the moment you want the attack to happen.

Use conventional Cataphract armed forces to attack one or more systems deeper in the Talbot cluster - who will send off a Case Zulu. That's the bate to lure Home Fleet to Lynx - not an attack on Lynx. Then once the first heavy units transit into Lynx the Lenny Dets strike - decapitating the terminus forts and crushing each transiting ship.

If a Case Zulu is in progress in the Talbott Cluster, first of all it's Tenth Fleet that is going to respond and they're stationed at Spindle (once they return from conquering), not in Manticore. The only planet that is effectively closer for Home Fleet than Tenth would be Lynx.

But there are more fleets in Manticore that may respond quicker. The forces from Trevor's Star may be closer to the terminus than Home Fleet: Home Fleet usually stays inside the Manticore-A hyperlimit, which is 19 light-hours from the Junction, whereas the Trevor's Star forces could be sitting at the terminus. Even if they aren't, they're closer to the Terminus than Home Fleet.

Finally, regardless of which fleet responds, there are still two fatal flaws in the stealth ambush scenario: first, if a Case Zulu is in progress, the forts will have their bubblewalls up and will thus survive most attacks. You'd have to saturate them with grasers to knock the bubble down and destroy the forts. Second, the fleet is not going to immediately perform a mass transit: if there's urgency, the lighter units will have come through first and will have their wedges and sidewalls up. Those are hard targets to target stealthily and the Nike-class BC(L) squadron(s) that outran the wall will be a threat to the Lenny Dets. The Lennys would have to take not just the forts, but also the lighter units.

And I don't think you can expect a mass transit, unless the attack was in Manticore itself. Any attack outside of the MBS and the termini is going to be weeks away, so they can perform a regular, if expedited, transit. So not only are the Lenny Dets facing the forts with bubblewalls up and the lighter units, but also wallers that are cleared for action.

In that scenario they'd prefer Home Fleet to transit in sequence. Manticore wouldn't expect return couriers while the womrhole controllers are focused on a larger minim safe separation transit (or if sending at minimum possible then there wouldn't be any 'slots' for return traffic). Coming one at a time lets more total ships into the trap - while reducing the changes that a couple ships from a mass transit can survive long enough to get clear and raise wedge, sidewalls, and be able to launch missiles.

I don't think that's likely. Because the RMN used that tactic at the Ajay-Prime Warp Bridge, I'd expect a response to Case Zulu to include a return communication. At least every tenth ship or so. If an ambush does happen, the ships will stop transiting. And as I said above, the ambush needs to wait for the wallers to begin transiting, which means the escorts (all the way up to BCs) will be on the other side.

I don't know that it would work. But that idea isn't to lure them by launching an attack on the terminus - (as you say Manticore might believe it lost and send forces the long way). It was to stage an attack to deeper in that would cause reinforcements to be rushed through the wormhole.

Though I supposed if the Lenny Dets wanted to hang around for months they'd still get a bit of a shot at ambushing any relief force arriving through hyper. But those'd be tougher targets since they'd be in a mutually supporting formation and have full use of their maneuverability, weapons, and defenses.

Not to mention that the exact time and locus of emergence is unknown. The Lenny Dets would need to stay at full battlestations for weeks or months, which is not possible. You can expect a relief force that is coming the long way to scout the terminus before transiting en masse and deploy some Ghost Rider RDs.

Even if the Lenny Dets have FTL transceivers retrofitted (a technology the MAlign didn't yet have at the conclusion of Uncompromising Honor), we can't expect them to have much better than Haven did in the second war for the next decade or two. That is, LAC-sized (re)transmitters, which are easy to pick up.