Imagine you are Amos Parnell's Staff Officer - Part II

ThinksMarkedly wrote:

Jonathan_S wrote:More like 2 years before they're ready. At least based on the wiki timeline the Maccabeus Campaign (during HotQ) is launched Aug 1903 PD; but the Peeps didn't kick off the war until March 1905 PD.

That assumes the preparations for war in SVW were launched on schedule. What's the likelihood of that?

More likely, they ran into delays in construction or political directives. The original planning might have been for a 1904 launch.

Unlikely because there's no point in grabbing a system for the purpose of building a fleet base to assist in your war plans if those same plans are to kick off the war before you'd have time to build out the fleet base.

Building a fleet base is a massive multi-year infrastructure project.

If Haven had gotten control of Endicott and suppressed Grayson I think it far more likely they'd target war in 1906 than 1904.

Jonathan_S wrote:Unlikely because there's no point in grabbing a system for the purpose of building a fleet base to assist in your war plans if those same plans are to kick off the war before you'd have time to build out the fleet base.

Building a fleet base is a massive multi-year infrastructure project.

If Haven had gotten control of Endicott and suppressed Grayson I think it far more likely they'd target war in 1906 than 1904.

If they really intended to grab the system for a base and had the time and money, sure. But given the state of the Peep finances, it's not likely they could build a base in time before they really needed to kick off the war. In fact, building a base would drain resources and would make the start of the war sooner, not later.

The operation in Grayson & Masada may have started as basing rights, but I think they ran out of time. Not that Yu and Theisman were told, of course.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:

Theemile wrote:We had just seen Haven try to take Basilisk in 1900 with the RMN home fleet just a jump away, why wouldn't the peep leadership see 30 light years as a significant buffer for a second try? They would time their capture with a distraction for Manticore while pro-peep politicos on Manticore poured molasses in the gears of parliament in an attempt to slow or stop RMN response.

It says it right in the book: the PRN wanted basing rights in Endicott. Every other system they had basing rights in, they controlled outright; the peeps had zero allies. The transition from helping to taking over is the peep leadership playbook - they could not see the holes in the plan because of their institutional blinders.

Trying before the RMN was in Endicott is one thing. After White Haven was there with his squadron, conquering Endicott would mean starting the war, even if they attempted to portray it as a liberation of Masada.

Basilisk was very different, because of the WH terminus. If the PRH had seized it, it would have had a much bigger economic impact on the Star Kingdom and limited some of the ship movement options. Basilisk was worth a much bigger risk.

The whole conversation is discussing WHY the PRN sent a BC to Endicott originally. Of course the strategic thinking should change AFTER the BC was lost, the operation was blown, strategic surprise was lost, and the system was in the hands of the opposition.

Why would we be discussing an AFTER THEY LOST scenario?

ThinksMarkedly wrote:

Jonathan_S wrote:Unlikely because there's no point in grabbing a system for the purpose of building a fleet base to assist in your war plans if those same plans are to kick off the war before you'd have time to build out the fleet base.

Building a fleet base is a massive multi-year infrastructure project.

If Haven had gotten control of Endicott and suppressed Grayson I think it far more likely they'd target war in 1906 than 1904.

If they really intended to grab the system for a base and had the time and money, sure. But given the state of the Peep finances, it's not likely they could build a base in time before they really needed to kick off the war. In fact, building a base would drain resources and would make the start of the war sooner, not later.

The operation in Grayson & Masada may have started as basing rights, but I think they ran out of time. Not that Yu and Theisman were told, of course.

Bad finances or not, Haven built Seaford Nine, Barnett and several other forward bases specifically to counter Manticore. Their ships were built with short endurance and their fleet philosophy involved Depot Maintenance over shipborn maintenance due to the flaws in their education system. Why would another forward base just 30 light years from Manticore be a surprise in their pre-war strategic calculus?

Theemile wrote:
Bad finances or not, Haven built Seaford Nine, Barnett and several other forward bases specifically to counter Manticore. Their ships were built with short endurance and their fleet philosophy involved Depot Maintenance over shipborn maintenance due to the flaws in their education system. Why would another forward base just 30 light years from Manticore be a surprise in their pre-war strategic calculus?

Plus ammunitioning.

Even before pods became a thing, Havenite ships were built with more missile launchers and less ammo reserves; great for overkill when you're fighting from a position of advantage, bad for an extended slugging match. Even without battle damage they'd need a secure harbour to rearm on a regular basis, or you'd need a secure central location to base your transports if you're sending the ammo out to them instead.

As noted, I completely get WHY the PN wanted a base in Endicott. It just seemed like a massively hamfisted way to get one when they could basically just park up and build one. You could provide a diplomatic fig leaf to cover it easily enough and it's not like 'concern for the dignity of independent sovereign states' was an especially big concern for the Peeps; unlike Basilisk (two instantaneous jumps from a League system and a major trade hub) nobody outside the PRH, SKM and the planet's own inhabitants really cared what happened in a backwater system like that.

Theemile wrote:Bad finances or not, Haven built Seaford Nine, Barnett and several other forward bases specifically to counter Manticore. Their ships were built with short endurance and their fleet philosophy involved Depot Maintenance over shipborn maintenance due to the flaws in their education system. Why would another forward base just 30 light years from Manticore be a surprise in their pre-war strategic calculus?

They did, but we don't know when they started those. I get the impression that Barrett is a much older base.

I'm not saying Haven didn't want a base in the Endicott System. I'm saying they ran out of time, so instead of going for a base and a headache they wouldn't be able to hold, they went for a minimum intervention that would result in denying the Alliance a base. That could explain why send a BC instead of just parking a squadron of them in orbit around Masada and saying "we can haz base, right?"

ThinksMarkedly wrote:

Theemile wrote:Bad finances or not, Haven built Seaford Nine, Barnett and several other forward bases specifically to counter Manticore. Their ships were built with short endurance and their fleet philosophy involved Depot Maintenance over shipborn maintenance due to the flaws in their education system. Why would another forward base just 30 light years from Manticore be a surprise in their pre-war strategic calculus?

They did, but we don't know when they started those. I get the impression that Barrett is a much older base.

I'm not saying Haven didn't want a base in the Endicott System. I'm saying they ran out of time, so instead of going for a base and a headache they wouldn't be able to hold, they went for a minimum intervention that would result in denying the Alliance a base. That could explain why send a BC instead of just parking a squadron of them in orbit around Masada and saying "we can haz base, right?"

Fair enough. I went back and looked and I had the order a bit muddled in my head. Admiral Courvosier is clear in his initial meeing with Honor that "the Peeps started sucking up to Masada" as soon as Manticore started courting Grayson.

So Manticore made the first move for bases/allies in that region. (For some reason I'd vaguely though it was the other way)

Jonathan_S wrote:
Fair enough. I went back and looked and I had the order a bit muddled in my head. Admiral Courvosier is clear in his initial meeing with Honor that "the Peeps started sucking up to Masada" as soon as Manticore started courting Grayson.

So Manticore made the first move for bases/allies in that region. (For some reason I'd vaguely though it was the other way)

Because of the PN ship Moscow, which was a heavy cruiser parked in orbit of Masada during the events of the Promised Land, when Manticore was still see-sawing between Grayson and Masada as potential allies.

That's over half a decade before First Basilisk - the date isn't entirely clear but Roger Winton adopts Judith's daughter in 1894 and she was born during the escape, whilst Maccabeus was 1903.

That said, it's not clear in that story if the Moscow is there because Michael Winton is there or not, as opposed to a permanent diplomatic effort.

The dates in Promised Land don’t work. It’s a very good story, but it was wedged and hammered into the timeline.

kzt wrote:The dates in Promised Land don’t work. It’s a very good story, but it was wedged and hammered into the timeline.

And it got worse when Princess Ruth wasn't old enough in CoS.