Imagine you are Amos Parnell's Staff Officer - Part II

tlb wrote:

locarno24 wrote:In many ways, the whole Jericho exercise was losing sight of it. Haven, after all, logically didn't want Masada. It is, by all accounts, a geographically unpleasant planet peopled by some deeply ethically unpleasant individuals with a technology level several decades of investment resources the PRH didn't have short of being "useful".

I understand Masada to be a very nice planet, but it is true that the people are very unpleasant. Unlike Grayson, the planet would have been perfect for colonization; but unfortunately there was only enough transport to move the fanatics.

It's nice compared to Grayson:

"Masada has an axial inclination of over forty degrees, and its weather is incredibly severe compared to Grayson, but humans can eat its plants and animals. They can live without worrying about lead and mercury poisoning from simply breathing its dust" - Yanakov, Honor of the Queen.

Right, but loses points for being too straightforward.

I shall submit my apology to Secretary Baldrick forthwith.

tlb wrote:I understand Masada to be a very nice planet, but it is true that the people are very unpleasant. Unlike Grayson, the planet would have been perfect for colonization; but unfortunately there was only enough transport to move the fanatics.

locarno24 wrote:It's nice compared to Grayson:

"Masada has an axial inclination of over forty degrees, and its weather is incredibly severe compared to Grayson, but humans can eat its plants and animals. They can live without worrying about lead and mercury poisoning from simply breathing its dust" - Yanakov, Honor of the Queen.

My bad: I remembered the "nice", but forgot that was only compared to Grayson. How does it compare to Gryphon, which is only "borderline habitable" according to House of Steel?

tlb wrote:

locarno24 wrote:In many ways, the whole Jericho exercise was losing sight of it. Haven, after all, logically didn't want Masada. It is, by all accounts, a geographically unpleasant planet peopled by some deeply ethically unpleasant individuals with a technology level several decades of investment resources the PRH didn't have short of being "useful".

I understand Masada to be a very nice planet, but it is true that the people are very unpleasant. Unlike Grayson, the planet would have been perfect for colonization; but unfortunately there was only enough transport to move the fanatics.

Agreed. Spatially what the PN wanted was basically something akin to what triggered the "Seven Days in May" back in 1962. A forward striking base (like Cuba) with erstwhile interstellar diplomatic independence where they could prepare for the onslaught of Manticore. Meaning that the correct strategic move for Dumarest et. al post HotQ would have been to immediaely send enough battleships to bounce White Haven out of Endicott and then complete their basing plans anyway.

Of course, at that point in time the main characters in charge in the PN and People's Republic were all pretty much trying to get away with the something for nearly nothing approach all the way through the Honor of the Queen, with all the fancy interstellar goofiness that required. Esther McQueen finally straightened that out -- she was effectively the People's Navy equivalent of Patton or McArthur with a less earthy vocabulary.

SharkHunter wrote:Of course, at that point in time the main characters in charge in the PN and People's Republic were all pretty much trying to get away with the something for nearly nothing approach all the way through the Honor of the Queen, with all the fancy interstellar goofiness that required. Esther McQueen finally straightened that out -- she was effectively the People's Navy equivalent of Patton or McArthur with a less earthy vocabulary.

Attacking the Endicott System after Manticore conquered it would start the war 6 months before they were ready. At this point, unlike the preparation to send Yu and Theisman, they were already preparing for the opening shots. Endicott was not strategic enough to upend those plans.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:

SharkHunter wrote:Of course, at that point in time the main characters in charge in the PN and People's Republic were all pretty much trying to get away with the something for nearly nothing approach all the way through the Honor of the Queen, with all the fancy interstellar goofiness that required. Esther McQueen finally straightened that out -- she was effectively the People's Navy equivalent of Patton or McArthur with a less earthy vocabulary.

Attacking the Endicott System after Manticore conquered it would start the war 6 months before they were ready. At this point, unlike the preparation to send Yu and Theisman, they were already preparing for the opening shots. Endicott was not strategic enough to upend those plans.

A strategic base, about 30 light years from Manticore? I'd say that was worth it.

Theemile wrote:A strategic base, about 30 light years from Manticore? I'd say that was worth it.

It might have been, but I don't think having such a base was possible in the first place. The war was a year away and they would still have to build a base in order to have a base. There was no way the PRH could pour resources similar to what Manticore did at Grayson and definitely not as nicely. Instead, they'd find themselves with an unruly 3 billion people planet that sucks resources and gives them headaches.

This might have been only an attempt to deny Manticore a base (in Grayson) more than gain one for them. And knowing how well Grayson turned out, that operation would have been worth its weight in gold or superdreadnought ceramic armour (or whatever is valuable when you can just mine asteroids).

Besides, even if they bounced White Haven and BatCruRon 17 out, Manticore could respond much more quickly than they could. They wouldn't be able to keep Endicott if Manticore was determined -- and allowing the Peeps an FOB at only 30 light years might not be a good idea.

Theemile wrote:

ThinksMarkedly wrote:Attacking the Endicott System after Manticore conquered it would start the war 6 months before they were ready. At this point, unlike the preparation to send Yu and Theisman, they were already preparing for the opening shots. Endicott was not strategic enough to upend those plans.

A strategic base, about 30 light years from Manticore? I'd say that was worth it.

More like 2 years before they're ready. At least based on the wiki timeline the Maccabeus Campaign (during HotQ) is launched Aug 1903 PD; but the Peeps didn't kick off the war until March 1905 PD.

I'd actually speculate that if they'd succeeded in taking Endicott (especially if they got it and Yeltsin) they'd actually have waited a bit longer before kicking off the war.

It takes time, probably at least two years, to build up the infrastructure of a decent fleet base. They need more than just a non-hostile system - if they wanted that they could have pre-deployed the fleet, with a mobile fleet train, to any number of uninhabited stars that close to Manticore. But a fleet base implies at least some repair facilities, significant warehousing for supplies and missiles, probably some R&R facilities, and enough defenses to keep all that reasonably safe. (And back then defenses meant building forts; not just rolling out shoals of pods)
Not much point in taking those systems if you don't then take the time to develop the forward base you wanted. So any method of taking the system that doesn't give you time is self-defeating.


If they'd kicked off the war in 1903 PD by sending enough of a fleet to drive the RMN out of those system (and occupying a newly signed Manticoran ally) those systems would just be a resource drain on Haven. No way to support a fleet presence, but too far from the existing bases to be easy to defend. Honestly if the war started right after the Peeps overran Endicott and Yeltsin it'd probably look to them that their best bet would be to abandon them to free up fleet units for offensive attacks against the RMN.

Jonathan_S wrote:More like 2 years before they're ready. At least based on the wiki timeline the Maccabeus Campaign (during HotQ) is launched Aug 1903 PD; but the Peeps didn't kick off the war until March 1905 PD.

That assumes the preparations for war in SVW were launched on schedule. What's the likelihood of that?

More likely, they ran into delays in construction or political directives. The original planning might have been for a 1904 launch.

Jonathan_S wrote:

Theemile wrote:
A strategic base, about 30 light years from Manticore? I'd say that was worth it.

More like 2 years before they're ready. At least based on the wiki timeline the Maccabeus Campaign (during HotQ) is launched Aug 1903 PD; but the Peeps didn't kick off the war until March 1905 PD.

I'd actually speculate that if they'd succeeded in taking Endicott (especially if they got it and Yeltsin) they'd actually have waited a bit longer before kicking off the war.

It takes time, probably at least two years, to build up the infrastructure of a decent fleet base. They need more than just a non-hostile system - if they wanted that they could have pre-deployed the fleet, with a mobile fleet train, to any number of uninhabited stars that close to Manticore. But a fleet base implies at least some repair facilities, significant warehousing for supplies and missiles, probably some R&R facilities, and enough defenses to keep all that reasonably safe. (And back then defenses meant building forts; not just rolling out shoals of pods)
Not much point in taking those systems if you don't then take the time to develop the forward base you wanted. So any method of taking the system that doesn't give you time is self-defeating.


If they'd kicked off the war in 1903 PD by sending enough of a fleet to drive the RMN out of those system (and occupying a newly signed Manticoran ally) those systems would just be a resource drain on Haven. No way to support a fleet presence, but too far from the existing bases to be easy to defend. Honestly if the war started right after the Peeps overran Endicott and Yeltsin it'd probably look to them that their best bet would be to abandon them to free up fleet units for offensive attacks against the RMN.

Neither Hancock nor Seaford nine had forts for defenses. Minefields, automated missile launchers ( on planets, moons, or asteroids), and IEWPs (independent energy weapons platforms) were the lighter fare for a quick defense in 1903.

We had just seen Haven try to take Basilisk in 1900 with the RMN home fleet just a jump away, why wouldn't the peep leadership see 30 light years as a significant buffer for a second try? They would time their capture with a distraction for Manticore while pro-peep politicos on Manticore poured molasses in the gears of parliament in an attempt to slow or stop RMN response.

It says it right in the book: the PRN wanted basing rights in Endicott. Every other system they had basing rights in, they controlled outright; the peeps had zero allies. The transition from helping to taking over is the peep leadership playbook - they could not see the holes in the plan because of their institutional blinders.

Theemile wrote:We had just seen Haven try to take Basilisk in 1900 with the RMN home fleet just a jump away, why wouldn't the peep leadership see 30 light years as a significant buffer for a second try? They would time their capture with a distraction for Manticore while pro-peep politicos on Manticore poured molasses in the gears of parliament in an attempt to slow or stop RMN response.

It says it right in the book: the PRN wanted basing rights in Endicott. Every other system they had basing rights in, they controlled outright; the peeps had zero allies. The transition from helping to taking over is the peep leadership playbook - they could not see the holes in the plan because of their institutional blinders.

Trying before the RMN was in Endicott is one thing. After White Haven was there with his squadron, conquering Endicott would mean starting the war, even if they attempted to portray it as a liberation of Masada.

Basilisk was very different, because of the WH terminus. If the PRH had seized it, it would have had a much bigger economic impact on the Star Kingdom and limited some of the ship movement options. Basilisk was worth a much bigger risk.