So....imagine you are Admiral Parnell's staff officer

kzt wrote:In service Haven capital ship classes at the start of the war are:

SD
Duquesne 1879, successor to the Hempstead class

DN
Nouveau Paris 1869, successor to the Chevalier class

BB
Triumphant 1823 (most common haven capital ship), successor to Fouchart class

Hmm... if there's a DN class from 1869, that means they built DNs in the 1870s. My premise was that they wouldn't have from 1850 onwards. Unlike the RMN, they didn't have capacity problems (shipyard or manning), so there's not much need to build a DN in the first place. It doesn't cost that much less than a full up SD to build, only to run and that's why the RMN had a lot of them.

Do you have numbers on how many Nouveau Paris DNs were built?

ThinksMarkedly wrote:

kzt wrote:In service Haven capital ship classes at the start of the war are:

SD
Duquesne 1879, successor to the Hempstead class

DN
Nouveau Paris 1869, successor to the Chevalier class

BB
Triumphant 1823 (most common haven capital ship), successor to Fouchart class

Hmm... if there's a DN class from 1869, that means they built DNs in the 1870s. My premise was that they wouldn't have from 1850 onwards. Unlike the RMN, they didn't have capacity problems (shipyard or manning), so there's not much need to build a DN in the first place. It doesn't cost that much less than a full up SD to build, only to run and that's why the RMN had a lot of them.

Do you have numbers on how many Nouveau Paris DNs were built?

No, the books don't have that detail, or I missed it. That would take Duckk or someone with deep access. But I think they were on flight V or something as of 1905, so it was a serious continuing program.

locarno24 wrote:Completely agree. But - and I realise this is one of those "hindsight is 20/20" moments - you're not going to take Manticore without having that fight.

I guess that was the whole thing about Odysseus; IF they could take Basilisk without a war, then you get access to the Silesian region without then passing Manticoran territory. So it's an awfully attractive option, but it relies on that horrible and almost never correct assumption politicians love of "Don't Worry, We Won't Really Have To Fight And It'll All Be Over By Christmas".

If you start with "we need to take Manticore", which WAS Parnell's objective as of the briefing at the start of On Basilisk Station, then pretty much every option other than "a direct assault" is almost always provably worse by pretty simple logic.

And Parnell was right. Going after Silesia was just be kicking the can down the road. Manticore wasn't going to suddenly disappear and it had been building up its navy for 50 years. There may be a limit to what they could build, but clearly it hadn't been reached in 1901. At best, going after Silesia gives you the economic breath to build up the PRN even further, so it could actually face the RMN from a position of overwhelming superiority.

But as I argued, Silesia wouldn't have been a walk in the park. First, the SCN was probably the toughest navy would have had to fight anyway. And second, it would bring them in close contact with the IAN, which really wasn't a push-over. Brokering a deal with the Andermani to partition the Confederacy wouldn't have worked (as we know it didn't in 1919). Going after Silesia might have actually been worse, because the RMN would definitely not sit it out and then the PRN is fighting both the RMN and the IAN, with much longer supply lines.

But the decision wasn't military, it was political. Odysseus was possibly just a compromise that had huge potential benefits, a good chance for success, and little risk of escalating further.

Yeah. I think you're probably right. I'm sure that there were junction forts at that point too, but essentially, the best, most logical approach was essentially to take Trevor's Star in 1883 and just keep going. Manticore would have been a huge, painful fight, but at that point it could have been knocked over.

On the other hand, I guess at that point we don't know how much of the Havenite Wall is committed to other fronts on the DuQuense Plan at the same time. If it's engaged in a dozen pacification operations it might not have been able to concentrate force (which would explain the 'invade on the cheap' plan).

That was not their modus operandi. The PRH annexed a system, digested it, grew the PRN, then went for the next. It had been working, so why not continue?

Another factor is that they had just engineered Roger III's death. They were counting on Elizabeth III not continuing the build up, possibly even reducing, at which point it would have been a much easier annexation.

And as you said, we don't know what the Havenite Wall was at the time. From kzt's post, the Duquesne-class SD had just come online, so they were still building the wall up. The RMN was already a tough fight, so they must have been planning on outpacing the RMN build up before the actual confrontation.

In Yeltsin the error isn't detaching Theisman's ships - if he'd been in the initial assault he'd be dead too; when you put battleships in energy range of superdreadnoughts the numerical odds don't matter much - but the fact that Thurston didn't try to confirm what he was seeing with recon drones. Yes, Flag in Exile says pushing drones past the GSN's point defence would have been hard, but that's the point - the very act of forcing the ex-PN SDNs to employ their awesome point defence would have been a signal flare of "holy beep what just happened! That was NOT a battlecruiser!". Given that the whole plan is not supposed to be subtle and rests on THERE ARE NO NASTY SURPRISES HERE, you'd think the PN formation would be spawning drones from the moment it left hyper.

He also - as Theisman says - doesn't try to hold the range open when for once the PN has the superior numbers of heavier missiles (it thinks).

No, but doubling the number of battleships would have hurt the GSN more. They did lose one SD, so a more concentrated field might have killed another or two. Plus, having Theisman nearby may have made a difference in tactics, as he had Shannon aboard and she was the first one to notice that the "BCs" were forming a wall.

More likely, that might have had little immediate impact and the war could still finish as it did, but there could be no Honor and no Theisman for later on. Neither were that important to their services yet, but with no Theisman to continue McQueen's work, Saint-Just wouldn't be dead. And with no Honor, there would be no one to save QE3 and Protector Benjamin when the Masadans struck and killed Cromarty. High Ridge would have accepted the peace offer anyway.

Or maybe without Honor, Elizabeth and Cromarty may have never travelled to Grayson in the first place. And then White Haven arrives with Eighth Fleet in Nouveau Paris in 1915.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:The problem with this is that the PRH did not have the time it would require. Its treasury was empty. It had to expand to keep the BLS payments and that needed to come from one of three places: towards Erewhon, towards Silesia or towards Manticore. The first one was rejected because it would grow towards the League and was considered an unacceptable risk. The second was the preferred, but Basilisk was on the way and would bring about a conflict with Manticore anyway.

I'm not sure Haven correctly analyzed Manticore's reaction towards Havenite intrusion into Silesia.

Yes Basilisk is really incoveniently places for Haven if Manticore goes to war against them. And the Gregor - Silesia - Basilisk run lets Mantie freighters be more cost effective servicing Silesia than Haven's would be. But I'd don't think Beth would be able to get a declaration of war against Haven if they moved against Silesia. And once Haven conqures a world they're free to ban foreign merchants - so it doesn't mater how much more cost effective Manticore might hypothetically be in servicing them when Haven doesn't let them trade. (Now Beth might have been able to close the Junction to Haven flagged merchants moving between Silesia and Trevor's Star -- that's reduce any economic benfit Haven might get from Silesia. OTOH Haven probably would run a much less visibly corrupt government there - and would shut down the piracy and slavers. So President Harris might have been able to get public pressure to reopen the wormhole because Manticore is clearly hurting the people the Haven is trying to improve the lives of.

So I don't think they necessarily needed to control Basilisk in order to expand into Silesia. OTOH unless they did something to keep Silesia productive and avoid exporting the BLS and residential managers (with their vote buying schemes) it'd be another brief economic shot in the arm before their exported policies ended up making their financial situation even worse.

The Junction on the other hand would have been a steady source of funds regardless of how much of an economic loss the rest of the Manticore system might become. So it's a much better long term acquisition for a Haven that's not willing (or able) to change its economically self-destructive course.

Jonathan_S wrote:Yes Basilisk is really incoveniently places for Haven if Manticore goes to war against them. And the Gregor - Silesia - Basilisk run lets Mantie freighters be more cost effective servicing Silesia than Haven's would be. But I'd don't think Beth would be able to get a declaration of war against Haven if they moved against Silesia. And once Haven conqures a world they're free to ban foreign merchants - so it doesn't mater how much more cost effective Manticore might hypothetically be in servicing them when Haven doesn't let them trade. (Now Beth might have been able to close the Junction to Haven flagged merchants moving between Silesia and Trevor's Star -- that's reduce any economic benfit Haven might get from Silesia. OTOH Haven probably would run a much less visibly corrupt government there - and would shut down the piracy and slavers. So President Harris might have been able to get public pressure to reopen the wormhole because Manticore is clearly hurting the people the Haven is trying to improve the lives of.

I think you're partly right. The SKM government in 1901 would definitely not have approved a declaration of war against Haven for anything short of an attack on Manticore and explicit allies. So Haven could have moved on Silesia without an immediate war.

But I think that's a short-sighted proposal. As I explained in another post above, that would have pitted Haven against the Andermani's own expansionsist tendencies. Manticore would see both of its neighbours escalating to war and possibly even fighting. And that's with Manticoran merchants and warships in the middle, since they'd still be patrolling Silesia. The Admiralty would recognise a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to join the Andermani against the Peeps and curb the problem once and for all.

Allowing the PRH to absorb even half the Confederacy would be unacceptable for the sane minds in the SKM. It would reduce access to the biggest close-by market for Manticoran technology and merchant service (the League is bigger, but much more industrialised and disperse). The economic problem is double if you consider that Manticore's loss is Haven's gain: Silesia was probably the most industrialised, market, and resource pool annexation that Haven could have got and biggest "shot in the arm" ever (short of Manticore itself). Moderately industrialised single-systems like San Martin or Casca were / would be nice additions, but not in the scale of Silesia. Finally, it would be a military risk, since the PRN would only grow and would then flank Manticore on multiple sides.

Beth's and Cromarty's problem would be to convince enough in the government to declare war when the Andermani did. I think my arguments above could have swayed enough votes to make it happen. And if it does, the PRN is fighting a battle against the next two biggest navies, not just one of them, and on extended supply lines. Any numerical superiority it might have enjoyed against either is gone.

An alternative annexation of Silesia by adding one system at a time, slow cooking to avoid provoking the Andermani, would have been immediately rejected. It would work no more than twice before the Andermani intervened anyway and it would give both the IAN and RMN more time to continue building up.

So I repeat my earlier assessment: between fighting the SLN, fighting the IAN + RMN or fighting the RMN, Parnell's choice was clear.

The Andies were not an ally. They were a rival, with a large proportion of the ruling elite who really didn’t like Manticore. And Manticore knew that.

Also the Andies has staunchly refused to ally with Manticore against Haven.

So pretty hard to get dragged into that war.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:I think you're partly right. The SKM government in 1901 would definitely not have approved a declaration of war against Haven for anything short of an attack on Manticore and explicit allies. So Haven could have moved on Silesia without an immediate war.

But I think that's a short-sighted proposal. As I explained in another post above, that would have pitted Haven against the Andermani's own expansionsist tendencies. Manticore would see both of its neighbours escalating to war and possibly even fighting. And that's with Manticoran merchants and warships in the middle, since they'd still be patrolling Silesia. The Admiralty would recognise a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to join the Andermani against the Peeps and curb the problem once and for all.

Allowing the PRH to absorb even half the Confederacy would be unacceptable for the sane minds in the SKM. It would reduce access to the biggest close-by market for Manticoran technology and merchant service (the League is bigger, but much more industrialised and disperse). The economic problem is double if you consider that Manticore's loss is Haven's gain: Silesia was probably the most industrialised, market, and resource pool annexation that Haven could have got and biggest "shot in the arm" ever (short of Manticore itself). Moderately industrialised single-systems like San Martin or Casca were / would be nice additions, but not in the scale of Silesia. Finally, it would be a military risk, since the PRN would only grow and would then flank Manticore on multiple sides.

Beth's and Cromarty's problem would be to convince enough in the government to declare war when the Andermani did. I think my arguments above could have swayed enough votes to make it happen. And if it does, the PRN is fighting a battle against the next two biggest navies, not just one of them, and on extended supply lines. Any numerical superiority it might have enjoyed against either is gone.

An alternative annexation of Silesia by adding one system at a time, slow cooking to avoid provoking the Andermani, would have been immediately rejected. It would work no more than twice before the Andermani intervened anyway and it would give both the IAN and RMN more time to continue building up.

So I repeat my earlier assessment: between fighting the SLN, fighting the IAN + RMN or fighting the RMN, Parnell's choice was clear.

It's definitely somewhat short sighted - but I tend to agree with kzt here that Beth and the sane long term thinking government types on Manticore are still going to find it quite hard to get a declaration of war against Haven even if the IAN goes to war.

And as real politik as the Andies are I'm not sure they want to pick a fight with someone with as big a navy as the PRH. Yes they'd have the advantage of shorter logistical lines - but that also makes it darned hard for their counterattacks to threaten any significant Haven system. Yes Silesia is a major trading partner - and one they'd expected to end up taking over eventually. But if Haven rolls in heavy they might well blink and focus on defending their existing boarders and expanding out towards Asgard instead. Especially if they can't get Manticore to ally up with them.

And since historically they've been a bigger rival with Manticore than Haven it'll be a hard sell (IMO) to get Manticore onboard. Especially since Haven can fairly legitimantly point to all the horrible things that Manticore and the Andie haven't been willing or able to put an end to in Silesia; whereas Haven (already known to be very anti-slavery) is willing to end this ongoing bleeding wound and make things safer for all those poor people living under the inept Silesian government and it's corrupt planetary governors.

Also I think you overestimate the strength of the SCN. IIRC they don't have anything bigger than a BC and most of their designs are 4th rate overgunned (and under defended) crap. If the RMN and IAN stayed out of it Haven's problem wouldn't be brushing aside the SCN or various revolutionary splinter fleets, it'd be shipping in enough ground forces for occupation duty on all those surrendered planets.

munroburton wrote:Wait a minute... Fourth Yeltsin showed us that Havenite-built SDs can annihilate four times their number of Havenite-built BBs with moderate losses. That DuQuesne-class has 12L & 12G in its broadside.

Key point - when the BBs are stupid enough to stray into energy range of the SDs. That was the whole point of Honor's tactics - because suckering them in was the only way she was likely to win. Even with refitted compensators on the SD a BB is sufficiently smaller it can at least slow the rate of closure to a crawl if it wants to - so the SD can't dictate the combat range.


BBs are missile heavy units and while they're nowhere near as tough as SDs, any RHN SD that tangled with 4 RHN BBs on the BB's terms (prolonged missile combat and never closing to energy range) is going to have a very bad day.

kzt wrote:The Andies were not an ally. They were a rival, with a large proportion of the ruling elite who really didn’t like Manticore. And Manticore knew that.

Also the Andies has staunchly refused to ally with Manticore against Haven.

So pretty hard to get dragged into that war.

They were not an ally and wouldn't want to ally with Manticore, but they're pragmatic enough to do so when the alternative is facing Haven alone. We know they'd do that because they did that for the Second War.

Silesia is big enough that the PRN would have to dilute its forces to hold all of it. The SCN may be a 4th rate joke, but resisting the PRN annexation is something their tradition of piracy and privateering tactics would be useful. Enough to annoy the PRN so they wouldn't try to gobble up the entire Confederation in one go, but go through it in chunks.

And that gives the IAN time to respond. Even if they blink on the first invasion, the delay is sufficient for them to re-evaluate. And for Beth to offer alliance.

kzt wrote:In service Haven capital ship classes at the start of the war are:

SD
Duquesne 1879, successor to the Hempstead class

DN
Nouveau Paris 1869, successor to the Chevalier class

BB
Triumphant 1823 (most common haven capital ship), successor to Fouchart class

ThinksMarkedly wrote:
Hmm... if there's a DN class from 1869, that means they built DNs in the 1870s. My premise was that they wouldn't have from 1850 onwards. Unlike the RMN, they didn't have capacity problems (shipyard or manning), so there's not much need to build a DN in the first place. It doesn't cost that much less than a full up SD to build, only to run and that's why the RMN had a lot of them.

Do you have numbers on how many Nouveau Paris DNs were built?

kzt wrote:No, the books don't have that detail, or I missed it. That would take Duckk or someone with deep access. But I think they were on flight V or something as of 1905, so it was a serious continuing program.

In 1905, the PRN hAd "roughly 50 DNS", 16 were Chevalier class, the rest (~34 or 4 squadrons) were Nouveau Paris class. The Desquesne class SDs were design diritives of an older DN class, the Hempstead class. So the PRN had Dreadnoughts prior to the Chevalier class, all of which had been retired prior to 1905. This is from the class errata in the Jaynes.