Brigade XO wrote:The Alignment had structured it's plans such that Haven would take Manticore -Manticore was not supposed to be much of a bump in the Haven road- but it didn't go that way.
Alignment did a great job screwing around with the SLN at all levels, particuarly the intelligence and analysis areas and it would appear that a lot to the tech development that actualy made it's way to the SLN was comming from Technodyne. Technodyne being a conduit of Aligment tec to the SLN. Consider the Cataphracts. Sure, they got used 1st in the attack on Torch and were fed to Monica BEFORE the SLN showes them as something their warships are carrying.
That Haven had gotten so much better wasn't such a worry to the Alignment until th Peoples Republic of Haven got retaken by Prithart and friends and returned to being the Republic of Haven. The Alignment still wasn't too worried as the plan was still being moved to have Haven strike at Manticore and take the system....that didn't work out.
So, then Manticore has yet another weapons system- Apollo- rolled out and the Alighment still has hope that Haven- with an opening being offered to them (and because the Alignment has no idea that Harrington is going on a PEACE mission to Haven with her fleet parked just outside the hyperlimit as "encouragement"- and so they have continued the too early rollout of Oyster Bay to hit just Manticore and Grayson.
How was the Alignment supposed to figure on Pritichard offering an alliance with Manticore ----Zilwicky and friend having brought the information from Meas about the Aliance and all the data is starting to jell with the assination attemtempts (some successful, some not) susing the nannie- and suddenly the universe isn't the nice sandbox the Alignment has been carefully grooming for centuries.
The SLN, given it's absolute size, should have still been able to devistate though not conquer Haven after Haven broke itself taking Mantiore....but that war didn't do that to Haven and it has progressed through the combat with Manticore while the SLN was standing still. Worse, the SLN had been manipulated to not even attempt to learn from what was going on out in the Haven quadrant.
So, even having been give very improved Cataphacts, the SLN has no clue the kind of woodchipper it was about to feed it's combat forces into. Not only were it's communications lines too long, it was institutionaly incapable of looking at what it was getting (and that was being heavily doctored and misdirected) so it thought that all those SDs were still the key to dominating everything in space.
Oops. So 1st Manticore soundly defeats (though greatly outnumbered) everything they have thrown at them by the SLN - who gets effectively NO usable information back (no ships get home and only a couple of SLN officers set with notes from Manticore (and those get stuck at Gaynmead etc) and then the SLN goes for the Manticore system to find the GA there (and the Alignment sticks the knife into Fillerta) and ......Kingsford is presented with acceptable proof that the SLN has been suckered and it's not by Manticore
Harrington demonstrates that the SLN is little better than useless junk in modern combat and the SLN.....ISN"T going to explode but get reshaped.
The Alignment made a few too many miscalculations. Next round is 20+ years from now.
It occurs to me that the MAlign really can't have any strategist that have combat experience - so they may be missing the details on what make a current RHN, or especially RMN, ship so much more survivable and deadly than an SLN one.
After all if you look at the numbers the SLN small SDs don't mount that many fewer CM tubes and PDLCs per ton than the RMN or RHN designs. Realizing that each mount is vastly less effective both because the software isn't up to the task of modern missiles and because their cyclic rate is so much lower requires more in depth analysis than just looking at the basic numbers.
Could the MAligns own strategists have been overestimating the effectiveness of the SLN? Sure they had to know they weren't as good; but could they have thought that equalizing the missile range imbalance should be enough for the SLN to grind its way to a Soviet style victory? (Winning in no small part by having enough numerical superiority and cold bloodedness to be able and willing to suffer quite unfavorable loss rates until the enemy can't sustain their effort)