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The big problem of late Honorverse

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Re: The big problem of late Honorverse
Post by Galactic Sapper   » Wed Nov 27, 2019 11:15 am

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Jonathan_S wrote:
kzt wrote:2nd fired 524,000 missiles. Maximum control was 84K without rotating links, 134Ksome with. Stated they used no more than 80% of maximum. So somewhere between 5 and 8 salvos.

ToF was 7.5 minutes, total battle was 11.9 minutes.

Given those numbers that's 4.4 minutes between first and last salvo. So
5 savlos would be about 53 second intervals,
6 salvos would be about 44 seconds intervals,
7 salvos would be about 38 seconds intervals, or
8 salvos would be about 33 seconds intervals

They didn't need to roll more pods between the salvos (or at least not many) - so the intervals wouldn't be dictated by pod roll time. And at that range they're not going to have time to get a damage assessment and retarget between salvos anyway - so no need I can see to space it out. I'd guess towards the tighter sequenced smaller salvos; but that's just a guess.

More likely the larger, more spaced out salvos. They knew Manticoran defenses were going to knock down a LOT of those missiles, so better to go with the option that overwhelms those defenses with more missiles in fewer waves. Home Fleet was using a 65 second spacing on maximum-effort launches; no reason to think Second Fleet was launching salvos at half the spacing.
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Re: The big problem of late Honorverse
Post by Galactic Sapper   » Wed Nov 27, 2019 11:26 am

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ThinksMarkedly wrote:Wasn't this the first operational deployment of the donkey? If so, then D'Orville couldn't have known Tourville had donkeys and wouldn't know the size of the salvo Second Fleet could produce.

As for translating into alpha, I didn't mean for fleeing. I meant exactly the translation: as Honor used in the Battle of Sol (around Jupiter), you can just evade the entire missile swarm, however big, by not being there, then translating back elsewhere. Tourville would still have over 200 SD(P) at that point and would be a match for either Home or Third Fleets until they linked up, defeating each in detail.

It was, and that's part of the logic of HF launching early. They knew the first salvo was going to be a real bastard, but they couldn't know the following salvos would be. The reason to fire early was to 1) force 2F to launch their OMG salvo at maximum range to minimize its hit potential and 2) prevent them from building up a second OMG salvo by hitting them often enough to soft-kill the pods before 2F could roll the ~30 patterns of pods necessary to launch an OMG salvo. It would take 6-8 minutes to roll that many pods (assuming 4-5 6-pod patterns per minute, similar to Manty ships), so missiles hitting every minute or two would greatly limit the salvo size 2F could put out other than the first and maybe second salvo.

I believe this is what D'Orville had in mind when he set up the engagement - he knew the first salvo was going to be a maximum-effort launch from 2F, but assumed the following salvos would be only 3-4 pattern salvos which were within the capacity of his defenses. The first salvo would still kill a big chunk of HF, but the survivors of that salvo would have a much better chance against the smaller salvos 2F could put out once their pre-deployed pods were exhausted. He just let them get too close, and the surprise follow-on OMG salvos didn't allow the survivors of the first salvo to fight the battle he'd planned.

As for running into hyper, 2F didn't start deploying donkeys until they were 40+ minutes of flight time inside the hyper limit. Their acceleration dropped after they'd seen HF start moving to intercept, and HF would have required at least 40 minutes to get underway since they started with cold nodes. 2F was firmly committed to running past Sphinx by the time HF could have been in a position to launch even at maximum range.
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Re: The big problem of late Honorverse
Post by kzt   » Wed Nov 27, 2019 11:57 am

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He let them get to effective range for the RHN, abandoning the technological advantage the RMN had. And he expected Home fleet to get destroyed without firing most of its ammo. He explicity said so. It was just closer to 80% unfired than the likely 65-70% he expected.

Everyone in the RMN had a duty to act as stupid as possible that day so as to make Honor look good.
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Re: The big problem of late Honorverse
Post by Loren Pechtel   » Fri Nov 29, 2019 1:40 am

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Galactic Sapper wrote:As for running into hyper, 2F didn't start deploying donkeys until they were 40+ minutes of flight time inside the hyper limit. Their acceleration dropped after they'd seen HF start moving to intercept, and HF would have required at least 40 minutes to get underway since they started with cold nodes. 2F was firmly committed to running past Sphinx by the time HF could have been in a position to launch even at maximum range.


Which means harassing fire would have prevented the OMG launch--he didn't need to know about the donkeys to make this decision. By preventing an OMG he dies slower--and he knew time was on his side.
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Re: The big problem of late Honorverse
Post by Bruno Behrends   » Mon Dec 02, 2019 3:51 am

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Dilandu and others in this thread point out (correctly in my view) that the space battles vis-a-vis the SLN are very one-sided. And yes of course they would be more suspenseful if they were more even.

However: I have to defend our CeleryRunner hewre because reading through this thread it seems to me you guys are not taking into account why the battles are written this way.

There is a reason. And its not that DW suddenly can't write interesting space battles anymore.

The reason is that we are in a completely different part of the story now. A story with a different priority. We are not in the Manticore vs. Haven part anymore in which the space battles were a main component of suspense. That part of the series finished with the big 'season finale' of AAC.

We are now in the Grand Alliance vs Mesan Alignment part. Another season if you will. In this part the story is about identifying, defending against and actually finding a shadowy opponent who uses stealth and subterfuge instead of overwhelming military might.

The space battles are now a side-show. As is the whole 'war' against the SL. That's a cover up designed by the Alignment. (I know you guys know that. That I point it out anyway is because this thread seems to indicate to me that while knowing it you still don't figure it in your calculations.)
The real story is about finding out about the real opponent and thwarting their schemes.

And in order to make the story work the war against the SL has to be both much shorter and much more winnable for the GA than the Alignment figured. (That's the thwarting their plans part.) If it weren't the Alignment would win. Yes, you guys are a bit disappointed that the 800 pound gorilla has been flailing around so ineffectively but DW has been pointing out what would happen once the SL got its feet under it and its doctrine and tech updated. The GA would be flattened in short order.

I order to keep the story on the rails (and the rail is centered against the Alignment, NOT against the League) the League fight had to be designed the way it is. A distraction staged by the Alignment that had to get out of the way as quickly as possible in order to get to the real threat.

Yes, for fans of suspenseful space-battles that's suboptimal. (And I count myself among them).

But its the story we have here in season 2. It has another focus. Lets enjoy what we have. The shadow war.
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Re: The big problem of late Honorverse
Post by kzt   » Mon Dec 02, 2019 5:13 am

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The ridiculous barricade 'battle', with the LACs each towing millions of tons of pods at 700g while being totally undetected due to 'stealth' is just terrible writing. "Insert pointless one-sided space battle here".

The SLN popping out a wormhole and their careful search for mines not spotting the LACs? Yeah, right, a vastly larger LAC with a running reactor and containing humans at 270 Kelvin is far more stealthy than a tiny mine built of RAM and cooled to virtually the 4 Kelvin background temp. No, it's just terrible writing. "Insert pointless one-sided space battle here".

It's not all that bad, but those were bad.
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Re: The big problem of late Honorverse
Post by tlb   » Mon Dec 02, 2019 11:02 am

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Bruno Behrends wrote:Dilandu and others in this thread point out (correctly in my view) that the space battles vis-a-vis the SLN are very one-sided. And yes of course they would be more suspenseful if they were more even.

However: I have to defend our CeleryRunner hewre because reading through this thread it seems to me you guys are not taking into account why the battles are written this way.

There is a reason. And its not that DW suddenly can't write interesting space battles anymore.

The reason is that we are in a completely different part of the story now. A story with a different priority. We are not in the Manticore vs. Haven part anymore in which the space battles were a main component of suspense. That part of the series finished with the big 'season finale' of AAC.

We are now in the Grand Alliance vs Mesan Alignment part. Another season if you will. In this part the story is about identifying, defending against and actually finding a shadowy opponent who uses stealth and subterfuge instead of overwhelming military might.

The space battles are now a side-show. As is the whole 'war' against the SL. That's a cover up designed by the Alignment. (I know you guys know that. That I point it out anyway is because this thread seems to indicate to me that while knowing it you still don't figure it in your calculations.)
The real story is about finding out about the real opponent and thwarting their schemes.

And in order to make the story work the war against the SL has to be both much shorter and much more winnable for the GA than the Alignment figured. (That's the thwarting their plans part.) If it weren't the Alignment would win. Yes, you guys are a bit disappointed that the 800 pound gorilla has been flailing around so ineffectively but DW has been pointing out what would happen once the SL got its feet under it and its doctrine and tech updated. The GA would be flattened in short order.

In order to keep the story on the rails (and the rail is centered against the Alignment, NOT against the League) the League fight had to be designed the way it is. A distraction staged by the Alignment that had to get out of the way as quickly as possible in order to get to the real threat.

Yes, for fans of suspenseful space-battles that's suboptimal. (And I count myself among them).

But its the story we have here in season 2. It has another focus. Lets enjoy what we have. The shadow war.

I disagree; because I believe RFC is quite capable of writing the story in a way that makes the SLN less of a paper tiger, but still allows the GA to foil the plan for the RF to take over the remnants of the SL. However this would not fit in the limited number of mainline books, without dropping much of the Firebrand stories in the Verge. Since I expect that Firebrand is intended to be a major part of the "second season", that would be a problem.

However; my main problem with the ineffectual SLN is that the Detweiler Plan intended to force the battle between the SLN and the victor in the Haven Quadrant, with the sides even enough to destroy both. Since the Malign was keeping eyes on the war between Manticore and Haven, it should have been apparent to them that the SLN had been too emasculated and the beginning stages should have been delayed to address the imbalance. That this did not happen, I can only attribute to panic at the events in the Talbot Quadrant after the discovery of the Lynx terminal.
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Re: The big problem of late Honorverse
Post by TFLYTSNBN   » Mon Dec 02, 2019 12:15 pm

TFLYTSNBN

tlb wrote:
Bruno Behrends wrote:Dilandu and others in this thread point out (correctly in my view) that the space battles vis-a-vis the SLN are very one-sided. And yes of course they would be more suspenseful if they were more even.

However: I have to defend our CeleryRunner hewre because reading through this thread it seems to me you guys are not taking into account why the battles are written this way.

There is a reason. And its not that DW suddenly can't write interesting space battles anymore.

The reason is that we are in a completely different part of the story now. A story with a different priority. We are not in the Manticore vs. Haven part anymore in which the space battles were a main component of suspense. That part of the series finished with the big 'season finale' of AAC.

We are now in the Grand Alliance vs Mesan Alignment part. Another season if you will. In this part the story is about identifying, defending against and actually finding a shadowy opponent who uses stealth and subterfuge instead of overwhelming military might.

The space battles are now a side-show. As is the whole 'war' against the SL. That's a cover up designed by the Alignment. (I know you guys know that. That I point it out anyway is because this thread seems to indicate to me that while knowing it you still don't figure it in your calculations.)
The real story is about finding out about the real opponent and thwarting their schemes.

And in order to make the story work the war against the SL has to be both much shorter and much more winnable for the GA than the Alignment figured. (That's the thwarting their plans part.) If it weren't the Alignment would win. Yes, you guys are a bit disappointed that the 800 pound gorilla has been flailing around so ineffectively but DW has been pointing out what would happen once the SL got its feet under it and its doctrine and tech updated. The GA would be flattened in short order.

In order to keep the story on the rails (and the rail is centered against the Alignment, NOT against the League) the League fight had to be designed the way it is. A distraction staged by the Alignment that had to get out of the way as quickly as possible in order to get to the real threat.

Yes, for fans of suspenseful space-battles that's suboptimal. (And I count myself among them).

But its the story we have here in season 2. It has another focus. Lets enjoy what we have. The shadow war.

I disagree; because I believe RFC is quite capable of writing the story in a way that makes the SLN less of a paper tiger, but still allows the GA to foil the plan for the RF to take over the remnants of the SL. However this would not fit in the limited number of mainline books, without dropping much of the Firebrand stories in the Verge. Since I expect that Firebrand is intended to be a major part of the "second season", that would be a problem.

However; my main problem with the ineffectual SLN is that the Detweiler Plan intended to force the battle between the SLN and the victor in the Haven Quadrant, with the sides even enough to destroy both. Since the Malign was keeping eyes on the war between Manticore and Haven, it should have been apparent to them that the SLN had been too emasculated and the beginning stages should have been delayed to address the imbalance. That this did not happen, I can only attribute to panic at the events in the Talbot Quadrant after the discovery of the Lynx terminal.


I reluctantly agree.

However; as much as I admire Weber's efforts to get some of the science correct, I have been compelled to suspend my disbelief to enjoy his stories. It simply is not possible for starships with Petawatt or Exawatt class fusion reactors to hide in space. This reality makes it impossible for some sneaky bitch from the sticks of Sphynx to repeatedly ambush her opponents.
Last edited by TFLYTSNBN on Mon Dec 02, 2019 1:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The big problem of late Honorverse
Post by Galactic Sapper   » Mon Dec 02, 2019 12:40 pm

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kzt wrote:The ridiculous barricade 'battle', with the LACs each towing millions of tons of pods at 700g while being totally undetected due to 'stealth' is just terrible writing. "Insert pointless one-sided space battle here".

The SLN popping out a wormhole and their careful search for mines not spotting the LACs? Yeah, right, a vastly larger LAC with a running reactor and containing humans at 270 Kelvin is far more stealthy than a tiny mine built of RAM and cooled to virtually the 4 Kelvin background temp. No, it's just terrible writing. "Insert pointless one-sided space battle here".

It's not all that bad, but those were bad.

I should hope those humans were above 270 Kelvin, since that's just below freezing :)

Beyond that, you're off on the "millions of tons of pods. Not wrong, really, just off by a couple orders of magnitude of mass.

As for searching for mines and missing the LACs, the LACs were at least ten times further out than the mines the Sollies were looking for. Standoff range for mine warheads is similar to the laser heads of missiles, in the 50k kilometer range, while the energy range of LACs against bare hulls is closer to 800k kilometers or more.
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Re: The big problem of late Honorverse
Post by kzt   » Mon Dec 02, 2019 1:39 pm

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Every 200-300 pods masses a million tons. How many pods were they towing?

If it was one pod then I’d be off by two orders of magnitude. I seem to remember more than two pods being involved.
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