Would Dispersing Shipyards Blunt or Stop a Second Oyster Bay

Sigs wrote:8 BC's for a 4-8 month period out of 4 years between the time that Congo is lost to the point in time that the League surrendered is just a prayer unless there is a sizable picket before and after Harvest Joy, maybe not a squadron of BC's but still sizable enough to handle most threats coming through the WH.

You argued that they had a picket only during the expected timeframe of the survey, before and after is defended with a prayer, praying that the SEM doesn't send another survey expectantly months before the Harvest Joy or months or years after the Harvest Joy.

If the system is worth defending it should be worth defending from day 1 on with an adequate picket, and it should definitely be well defended with manned defences especially after you destroy an RMN ship, make sure no more ships come through otherwise it will get very interesting very quickly when the RMN starts asking question the RF doesn't want to answer.

You defend a system with forces adequate to the level of threat that is expected. No one plans for situations that aren't likely to happen. And the MAlign especially so, as we've established they're arrogant and think they can predict what others will do.

From what we know, there was a picket from Darius on station before the BC task force, having arrived there soon after the liberation of Congo. We don't know when, but some time after that was replaced with the Mannerheim BC squadron, probably after they found out that the Harvest Joy was going to attempt to transit. They stayed there for months until it did transit.

After the transit, there are a few months that one can be sure there will be no more transits, as they needed to wait for Harvest Joy to return the long way around. After that timeout, when Harvest Joy is finally declared MIA and presumed destroyed, the research will likely resume and the MAlign should re-establish a picket.

But until another ship shows up in Congo to do the research, you don't need much. The MAlign is aware of the readings one will see in Congo, especially the unexplained extra resonance. SOP will be to spend a year or two investigating before transiting.

So what should the MAlign leave at The Twins during that time? a) an SD squadron; b) a BC squadron; c) a pair of DDs.

I think (c)

ThinksMarkedly wrote:
You defend a system with forces adequate to the level of threat that is expected. No one plans for situations that aren't likely to happen.

Realistically you defend a system or a object of value based on it’s importance. If it is worth defending in the first place you picket the system with adequate forces. They may have doubled the picket because the Harvest Joy was expected but they should have had a picket of at least one capital ship(BC) and a handful of escorts and that is at the very least and as soon as they learned of the loss of Congo. They may have send an extra 4 or 6 BC’s during the 4 months before and 4 months after the expected date of survey but unless they are led by complete idiots they would have had sufficient force to capture/destroy a surprise survey ship. When reaction time is not measured in minutes or hours but in weeks/months you have to have an adequate picket because the threat level you expect could change and your reaction would be too late. That's not to say that the RF needs to picket the system with SD's or squadrons of BC's but they need sufficient force to deal with up to and including 1 BC since if I can deal with one warship at the level of a BC I should be able to deal with anything smaller.

And the MAlign especially so, as we've established they're arrogant and think they can predict what others will do.

And they have also been shown to be quite meticulous in their planning and consistent in planning redundancies within their strategies along with some room for error. Then there is the problem of where the Congo WH leads them to and that is Darius indirectly and the RF a little more direct.

After the transit, there are a few months that one can be sure there will be no more transits, as they needed to wait for Harvest Joy to return the long way around. After that timeout, when Harvest Joy is finally declared MIA and presumed destroyed, the research will likely resume and the MAlign should re-establish a picket.

And who is to say that anyone will wait more then a few days and/or weeks? This was a RMN ship doing a survey in a system that has loyalties to Haven as well during a war between Haven and Manticore, who is to say that the Republic wouldn’t mount an expedition of their own quickly in the heels of the Harvest Joy? I mean they are at war but that is one system where we can be sure there is what would essentially amount to a ceasefire, Torch can’t refuse a Havenite survey and Haven would be eager to follow as closely in Harvest Joys footsteps as possible

But until another ship shows up in Congo to do the research, you don't need much. The MAlign is aware of the readings one will see in Congo, especially the unexplained extra resonance. SOP will be to spend a year or two investigating before transiting.

You think a ship will spend a year or two in the system before going back home to report?

So what should the MAlign leave at The Twins during that time? a) an SD squadron; b) a BC squadron; c) a pair of DDs.

They should picket the system with 1-2 BC’s and 4 DD/CL. Having more is too much of a risk, having less leaves them exposed because they would need to be ready 100% of the time, if there is a surprise having 1 BC with at least ¼ of their weapons manned and pointed in the right direction backed by a fully manned escort will make the difference between the ship in question being destroyed, captured or runs off and tells everyone what and who is on the other end.

Sigs wrote:That's not to say that the RF needs to picket the system with SD's or squadrons of BC's but they need sufficient force to deal with up to and including 1 BC since if I can deal with one warship at the level of a BC I should be able to deal with anything smaller.

And as was established, LACs can deal with BCs emerging from a wormhole. Granted, no one else has such capable LACs and they don't operate in isolation -- you'd need a CLAC on-site. But if you had those, a CLAC might be cheaper on the hardware since you only need a couple of LACs at general quarters, instead of a whole warship.

In the absence of CLAC and LACs, a squadron of DDs would suffice (FFs would, but no one has them). A squadron of BCs is overkill.

After the transit, there are a few months that one can be sure there will be no more transits, as they needed to wait for Harvest Joy to return the long way around. After that timeout, when Harvest Joy is finally declared MIA and presumed destroyed, the research will likely resume and the MAlign should re-establish a picket.

And who is to say that anyone will wait more then a few days and/or weeks? This was a RMN ship doing a survey in a system that has loyalties to Haven as well during a war between Haven and Manticore, who is to say that the Republic wouldn’t mount an expedition of their own quickly in the heels of the Harvest Joy? I mean they are at war but that is one system where we can be sure there is what would essentially amount to a ceasefire, Torch can’t refuse a Havenite survey and Haven would be eager to follow as closely in Harvest Joys footsteps as possible

Because it's a waste of effort. While the Harvest Joy is still expected to return, there's no point in attempting transit again, at least not so soon. If they survived the transit and are on their way back, it's best to wait for them with the location of the remote end, so proper survey can be done on that side with appropriate equipment and supplies. It's also possible they determined (somehow) the other end cannot be entered, so sending people on a second, months-long journey is not nice.

So even if a Havenite research ship turned up the day after Harvest Joy transited, such a ship will not transit until Harvest Joy is declared overdue. Of course, that could change after the news about the MAlign's existence arrived back on Torch.

But until another ship shows up in Congo to do the research, you don't need much. The MAlign is aware of the readings one will see in Congo, especially the unexplained extra resonance. SOP will be to spend a year or two investigating before transiting.

You think a ship will spend a year or two in the system before going back home to report?

Huh? Not following you. Why would a ship need to return home from Congo to report? There's regular mail going in both directions, they can include their findings in those packets.

What I meant is that because of the anomalous readings and because Harvest Joy failed to return, any new research will undoubtedly spend timing assuring themselves they haven't missed anything. They have to be responsible to the crews who will transit, to make sure that they're not unnecessarily risking their lives.

The thing is, after the MAlign's existence became known, the possibility that the GA's intelligence folks will actually deduce the Harvest Joy fell prey to hostile action increases. And paradoxically that reduces the risk of a transit, because if they concluded there was a picket or a fort on the other end, and we've established that forcing a transit has negligible chances of success, such a transit will not be attempted.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:So what should the MAlign leave at The Twins during that time? a) an SD squadron; b) a BC squadron; c) a pair of DDs.

I think (c)

That is a pretty substantial risk, in that a pair of destroyers might not be a match for whatever comes through. While the Harvest Joy was substantially less armed than a cruiser of its size normally would be, there's no guarantee the next ship to come through will be as toothless or as soft. Especially if the GA suspects the reason why the Harvest Joy didn't return. The next ship to come through might just be a surplus Solarian Scientist class SD (for maximum expendability) with a volunteer skeleton crew, coming through at GQ and ready for an energy range engagement. The DDs would do more damage than they should normally be able to, but they're going to lose. Unless the SD gets extremely unlucky and loses a sail, it wouldn't need to carry the science team needed to plot a return through the wormhole. They'd just need to survive long enough to run, and even against battlecruisers they might be able to pull it off.

Hell, with all the surplus Solarian ships the GA has laying around, they could even put a multiple transit through. Such ships wouldn't need to be prepared for an extended engagement, so they could probably scrape by with a single bridge and tactical crew and just enough engineers to keep the reactors running. Assuming they survived the ambush they could abandon all but one of the ships and combine crews for the trip back.

The only problem would be finding volunteers for those crews, and with all the people they have available they should be able to get enough for at least one skeleton crew and probably more.

As I said, all this is contingent on the GA finding at least some evidence the Harvest Joy was lost to enemy action and not natural phenomena. But it would certainly be doable against a picket that is too weak. The suicidalness of assaulting a defended wormhole depends entirely on exactly how defended it is.

Galactic Sapper wrote:That is a pretty substantial risk, in that a pair of destroyers might not be a match for whatever comes through. While the Harvest Joy was substantially less armed than a cruiser of its size normally would be, there's no guarantee the next ship to come through will be as toothless or as soft. Especially if the GA suspects the reason why the Harvest Joy didn't return. The next ship to come through might just be a surplus Solarian Scientist class SD (for maximum expendability) with a volunteer skeleton crew, coming through at GQ and ready for an energy range engagement. The DDs would do more damage than they should normally be able to, but they're going to lose. Unless the SD gets extremely unlucky and loses a sail, it wouldn't need to carry the science team needed to plot a return through the wormhole. They'd just need to survive long enough to run, and even against battlecruisers they might be able to pull it off.

Hell, with all the surplus Solarian ships the GA has laying around, they could even put a multiple transit through. Such ships wouldn't need to be prepared for an extended engagement, so they could probably scrape by with a single bridge and tactical crew and just enough engineers to keep the reactors running. Assuming they survived the ambush they could abandon all but one of the ships and combine crews for the trip back.

The only problem would be finding volunteers for those crews, and with all the people they have available they should be able to get enough for at least one skeleton crew and probably more.

As I said, all this is contingent on the GA finding at least some evidence the Harvest Joy was lost to enemy action and not natural phenomena. But it would certainly be doable against a picket that is too weak. The suicidalness of assaulting a defended wormhole depends entirely on exactly how defended it is.

I was going to reply that evidence has shown that DDs should be a match for a transiting SD without wedge and sidewalls, but I thought better of it. After all, SDs are tough because of their armour and non-RMN DDs aren't powerful enough to take on an SD. RMN DDs can fire Mark 16s missiles that are capable of taking on SDs and I suppose the rest of the GA is busy retrofitting their launchers to fire Mark 16s, but no one else has them. We know that RMN LACs have BC-grade grasers and that might be enough to take on an unprotected SD at point-blank range, but again no one else has them.

What the MAlign has is graser torpedoes. They have graser technology even ahead of the RMN right now.

So you're right, a pair of DDs might not be enough. A flight of graser torpedoes would help, provided it can go from standby to firing within a second or two.

Mines guys. Much more stealthy than LACs and having several order of magnitude longer on-station time.

Remember, in the Honorverse nobody ever even looks for them. See the SLN ambushed by LACs.

Sigs wrote:Realistically you defend a system or a object of value based on it’s importance. If it is worth defending in the first place you picket the system with adequate forces. They may have doubled the picket because the Harvest Joy was expected but they should have had a picket of at least one capital ship(BC) and a handful of escorts and that is at the very least and as soon as they learned of the loss of Congo. They may have send an extra 4 or 6 BC’s during the 4 months before and 4 months after the expected date of survey but unless they are led by complete idiots they would have had sufficient force to capture/destroy a surprise survey ship.

You defend it based on its importance, sure. But also based on its risk and your resources.

Even 4 BCs is a manpower inefficient way to defend the system. There's basically zero chance of someone stumbling across in through hyper - and even the 8 BCs waiting for Harvest Joy wouldn't have been enough have a high probability of keeping an alert scout from escaping back into hyper. So you're really only focusing on swatting anybody who might stick their nose through the unexplored wormhole.

For that 8 BCs is both overkill and, as I said, manpower inefficient. Missile pods are your best tool for swatting down anything and even a freighter or pair of DDs is plenty to babysit those. (The freighter is better since it can carry spare pods and rotate them out as the deployed pods hit their required maintenance intervals)

Remember that whatever comes through the wormhole is nearly defenseless. You've got 5+ minutes where you can shoot it with laserheads or energy weapons and it can only defend itself or fire back with its PDLCs and energy mounts (and since it lacks a sidewall you could tear it up with energy weapon fire from far enough back that its energy mounts can't penetrate your sidewalls). Plus if you kill both it's sails the grav forces can start inflicting additional damage on the ship if it's still close enough to the terminus.
Even a dozen or so missile pods is enough to shred a couple of SDs - and nobody sane is going to explore an uncharted wormhole with even a single SD; much less a simultaneous transit of them.
Laserheads, and even more-so pods, tilt wormhole defense ludicrously in favor of the defender. You simple don't need to station lots of ships or forts to stop hostile transits.

(What you do still need lots of ships/forts for is to stop pounces through hyper - but the Twins location is a very closely held secret; so that's not currently a practical concern there. And like I said even 8 BCs isn't enough to be sure of catching a scout; but neither is it enough to be sure of stopping a raid arriving through hyper)



Except for the excitement of being involved there was no really need to send a full BC squadron to await Harvest Joy. But I'm sure the Star Line squadron leadership didn't want to pass up an opportunity to personally engage a Manticoran ship - even if boring missile pods in 'minefield mode' are more than capable of economically securing the terminus from anything that could plausibly come through. But pods are cheap, so there's no reason they couldn't have deployed shoals of hundreds all within range of the terminus.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:
And as was established, LACs can deal with BCs emerging from a wormhole. Granted, no one else has such capable LACs and they don't operate in isolation -- you'd need a CLAC on-site. But if you had those, a CLAC might be cheaper on the hardware since you only need a couple of LACs at general quarters, instead of a whole warship.

Maybe the MSDF should picket the system with a couple of SD(P)'s... if you are going to suggest LAC's they don't have, and CLAC's they don't have built with technology they don't yet possess why not go all out and suggest they picket the system with SD(P)'s, BC(P)'s BC(L)'s or Sag-C's?

I am not talking about the "perfect picket" based on all available technology, I am talking about a picket with their available technology and the warships they own and operate.

In the absence of CLAC and LACs, a squadron of DDs would suffice (FFs would, but no one has them). A squadron of BCs is overkill.

I disagree, if they consider the system as important, they should picket the system accordingly. Just because a squadron of DD's SHOULD suffice doesn't mean they will. Picket the WH with forces you are sure would be adequate rather than deploying a half-assed picket that will piss of the RMN and put the RF and MSDF on a list they sure as hell don't want to belong. Their goal should be the destruction or capture of any survey ship, screwing up is not an option when you want to stay as far away from the MA as possible but at the same time you attacked an RMN survey ship and it managed to get away.

Because it's a waste of effort. While the Harvest Joy is still expected to return, there's no point in attempting transit again, at least not so soon. If they survived the transit and are on their way back, it's best to wait for them with the location of the remote end, so proper survey can be done on that side with appropriate equipment and supplies. It's also possible they determined (somehow) the other end cannot be entered, so sending people on a second, months-long journey is not nice.

And we all know that no military organization in the history of humanity has ever wasted effort. Just because it doesn't make sense for someone to do something doesn't mean no one will do it. But the biggest issue here is, the RF/MA CANNOT base their plans and strategy on the assumption that the other guy will behave the way they want him to. Just because it doesn't make sense to one person doesn't mean another person/group will think/behave the same way.

So even if a Havenite research ship turned up the day after Harvest Joy transited, such a ship will not transit until Harvest Joy is declared overdue. Of course, that could change after the news about the MAlign's existence arrived back on Torch.

Why wont it transit as soon as they want? If the republic had decided to have a little race with the RMN they wont wait for the RMN to complete the survey for them to start…kind of defeats the purpose.

Huh? Not following you. Why would a ship need to return home from Congo to report? There's regular mail going in both directions, they can include their findings in those packets.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:
But until another ship shows up in Congo to do the research, you don't need much. The MAlign is aware of the readings one will see in Congo, especially the unexplained extra resonance. SOP will be to spend a year or two investigating before transiting.

If they spend a year or two surveying one side shouldn’t they spend at least say half of that time if not an equal amount of time on the other side?

What I meant is that because of the anomalous readings and because Harvest Joy failed to return, any new research will undoubtedly spend timing assuring themselves they haven't missed anything. They have to be responsible to the crews who will transit, to make sure that they're not unnecessarily risking their lives.

So your point is that the RF should not defend the system with an adequate picket because the RMN is so good and pure that it will never under any circumstance risk their crew’s? The RMN might get some intelligence that the RF/MA is not aware of like they did courtesy of the Republic of Haven and Jack McBryde, they could have had someone defect that the MA intelligence service had not caught, or someone might have leaked information about the WH and the other end. What if someone had leaked or gotten their hands on the information that the other side of the WH leads to the MA’s secret base? Or that it leads to something very important to the MA?

And paradoxically that reduces the risk of a transit, because if they concluded there was a picket or a fort on the other end, and we've established that forcing a transit has negligible chances of success, such a transit will not be attempted.

If the GA found out that the other end of the WH leads them closer to the MA’s home they will find a way. And the RHN has all these handy BB’s they don’t need some of which could probably be programmed to do a mass transit to allow a few Sag-C’s and Rollands a chance to get through. They don’t need to capture the system, they need to figure out where it is. Sending 10-15 unmanned BB’s, 3-4 CA/DD and some Courier Boats gives a hell of a lot of targets, yes if the other side is heavily fortified it might end up being nothing but in the grand scheme of things, after Manticore, Grayson, Beowulf and the tens if not hundreds of millions of people that died in the MA inspired revolts in the verge risking a few thousand to find the location or at least be one step closer to finding the location might be worth it.

Manticore lost 9,000,000 people, Grayson probably lose in the millions as well, Beowulf lost 43,000,000 people and a large but unknown number died at the hands of the SLN because of the MA. Every death at the hands of the SLN ultimately lands on the doorstep of the MA, every town and city destroyed in Mobius by the SLN is destroyed because of the MA, we are probably talking in the high tens of millions, risking a few thousand personnel from the GA member navies to get the chance to end further slaughter a lot quicker would be something the GA jumps at.

Jonathan_S wrote:You defend it based on its importance, sure. But also based on its risk and your resources.

Even 4 BCs is a manpower inefficient way to defend the system. There's basically zero chance of someone stumbling across in through hyper - and even the 8 BCs waiting for Harvest Joy wouldn't have been enough have a high probability of keeping an alert scout from escaping back into hyper. So you're really only focusing on swatting anybody who might stick their nose through the unexplored wormhole.

Someone coming through the WH obviously know there is a WH, someone coming into the system through hyper sees a bunch of ships who could be conducting an exercise or are consolidating after multiple patrols.

Someone stumbles into the system from hyper it might look like any number of things, it wont automatically go to the assumption that this is the other end of the Congo WH and if they know this is the other end of the WH the picket wont really need to stop them.

Picketing the WH in an inadequate strength and hoping that it's enough is not the way to defend a valuable asset.

For that 8 BCs is both overkill and, as I said, manpower inefficient. Missile pods are your best tool for swatting down anything and even a freighter or pair of DDs is plenty to babysit those. (The freighter is better since it can carry spare pods and rotate them out as the deployed pods hit their required maintenance intervals)

Well a freighter in the middle of nowhere sure wouldn't scream pirate...

Remember that whatever comes through the wormhole is nearly defenseless. You've got 5+ minutes where you can shoot it with laserheads or energy weapons and it can only defend itself or fire back with its PDLCs and energy mounts (and since it lacks a sidewall you could tear it up with energy weapon fire from far enough back that its energy mounts can't penetrate your sidewalls).

Which means that you have to be at battle stations 24/7/365, too slow a reaction they run, one glitch at the wrong moment they escape, equipment down for maintenance at a bad time and you are SOL. Having a picket of 2-3 BC's means that at any time you have 1 of them on station ready to fight the other is down for repairs and rest, having 4 light cruisers or destroyers with them gives the BC a light combatant that is always on Battle Stations. Those ships should be able to handle anything short of a mass transit.

Plus if you kill both it's sails the grav forces can start inflicting additional damage on the ship if it's still close enough to the terminus.
Even a dozen or so missile pods is enough to shred a couple of SDs - and nobody sane is going to explore an uncharted wormhole with even a single SD; much less a simultaneous transit of them.

Unless they suspect something important is on the other hand. The GA has a couple of hundred Havenite BB's and 139 SLN SD's plus 80 SLN BC/CL/DD's and another 120+ ships from spindle, they can pick any of them for a mass transit by remote to "escort" a handful of manned warships and courier ships.

Except for the excitement of being involved there was no really need to send a full BC squadron to await Harvest Joy.

Redundancy, since you would want to make sure that you have far more than enough firepower just incase murphy comes to the party.

But I'm sure the Star Line squadron leadership didn't want to pass up an opportunity to personally engage a Manticoran ship - even if boring missile pods in 'minefield mode' are more than capable of economically securing the terminus from anything that could plausibly come through. But pods are cheap, so there's no reason they couldn't have deployed shoals of hundreds all within range of the terminus.

As effective as mines and pods are in this situation, the leadership of the MA has determined that the system is valuable and therefore they need to picket the system effectively. Darius end of the WH would realistically be heavily fortified even though they have no reason to suspect anyone is coming from the friendly side of the WH.


If you have enough defences to just be able to take out a survey ship you need to add redundancy and put humans in the loop just in case the enemy comes up with a surprise. Anything else is just asking for trouble.

That is a pretty substantial risk, in that a pair of destroyers might not be a match for whatever comes through. While the Harvest Joy was substantially less armed than a cruiser of its size normally would be, there's no guarantee the next ship to come through will be as toothless or as soft. Especially if the GA suspects the reason why the Harvest Joy didn't return. The next ship to come through might just be a surplus Solarian Scientist class SD (for maximum expendability) with a volunteer skeleton crew, coming through at GQ and ready for an energy range engagement. The DDs would do more damage than they should normally be able to, but they're going to lose. Unless the SD gets extremely unlucky and loses a sail, it wouldn't need to carry the science team needed to plot a return through the wormhole. They'd just need to survive long enough to run, and even against battlecruisers they might be able to pull it off.

Hell, with all the surplus Solarian ships the GA has laying around, they could even put a multiple transit through. Such ships wouldn't need to be prepared for an extended engagement, so they could probably scrape by with a single bridge and tactical crew and just enough engineers to keep the reactors running. Assuming they survived the ambush they could abandon all but one of the ships and combine crews for the trip back.

The only problem would be finding volunteers for those crews, and with all the people they have available they should be able to get enough for at least one skeleton crew and probably more.

As I said, all this is contingent on the GA finding at least some evidence the Harvest Joy was lost to enemy action and not natural phenomena. But it would certainly be doable against a picket that is too weak. The suicidalness of assaulting a defended wormhole depends entirely on exactly how defended it is.

Why solarian Superdreadnoughts? The GA has enough "outdated" SD´s on their own and the crews that can handle them, and, the alliance know exactly what their ships can do/ what they can survive. The captured solarian SD´s maybe more disposable, but they are also have a less chance of success.

First of all there is the question: "can you discover the transit limit of a wormhole from the outside, or do you have to try and error the max out?"

You can estimate about the discovered wormholes, what the minimum transit capaticity is (wormhole X has the smallest capaticity, so we take it as reference).

My personal plan would be: Take an old Podnought as the real science ship. Put one or two Frigates in the podstorage. Use a half dozen (more or less, depends of the transit limit) of old Non-Podlayers and put them around the main ship as cover. Modify them for remote control from the main ship. I know that it was mentioned, that David don´t like AI ships or remote controlled warships, but this is a very specific mission and not an overall strategy. The ships should after transit use all their electronic warfare equippment to blind all possible defenders. The Superdreadnought "Dummies" should immediately start some programms. If anything is detected, start fireing on them.