Would Dispersing Shipyards Blunt or Stop a Second Oyster Bay

Why not mines?

I can understand that the Alignenment want to keep the route open, but with the owner change at Torch the situation changes.

What said a General once: Mines are the cheapest soldiers!

And in Honorverse there are not so much otions to use mines because of the huge free space. A whormhole is a small passage, so it is the perfect situation to use mines.

So, in long terms, a minefield at the Twins would be the best to keep anyone from Torch out.

tlb wrote:

ThinksMarkedly wrote:That's not a 4-year deployment. Congo fell in 1919, so that's when then started putting together the task force. They were probably hurrying, but then Manticore announced Harvest Joy was going. At that point, with the research in the open, they had the time to do it right.

The textev suggests that it is closer to an eight year deployment; the Mannerheim Navy is "officially" there to protect Mannerheim's claim once the ownership difficulties are straightened out. It may be that the special composition of the picket forces only began after Torch was created. It could also be that this only happened after the planned transit was announced, it really does not matter. The officer corps knows that the ships are deployed there and that there is a very good reason to keep the interest in the star system with the "two" termini secret. We only know that star-lines are a minority in the Navy as a whole, but that does not say how many there are. I expect that there are quite a few star-lines members on the RF planets.

I think we're confusing two deployments. There's one to Felix, lasting 8 and a half years, which is crewed by reliable yet regular Mannerheim people, which the support people back in their homeworld know all about. They are told that they're there to protect the Felix Junction, but which they do not outright own so it would be unwise to let the secret out. It would be economically ruinous to the system. Just point at what Manticore did with Idaho and discussion is over. This force might include even SDs: so long as their absence from Mannerheim can be explained away to the galaxy at large, the work is done.

Then there's the second one, even more secret, that was deployed from Felix to The Twins, whose mission was to intercept Harvest Joy and make it unable to transit back to the Congo System. This mission was the one crewed almost exclusively with Mesan star-lines and is probably the biggest they can deploy without support people in Mannerheim not in the know getting suspicious. This second is the one I'm arguing needed only to be on-station for about a year,

ThinksMarkedly wrote:That's not a 4-year deployment. Congo fell in 1919, so that's when then started putting together the task force. They were probably hurrying, but then Manticore announced Harvest Joy was going. At that point, with the research in the open, they had the time to do it right.

tlb wrote:The textev suggests that it is closer to an eight year deployment; the Mannerheim Navy is "officially" there to protect Mannerheim's claim once the ownership difficulties are straightened out. It may be that the special composition of the picket forces only began after Torch was created. It could also be that this only happened after the planned transit was announced, it really does not matter. The officer corps knows that the ships are deployed there and that there is a very good reason to keep the interest in the star system with the "two" termini secret. We only know that star-lines are a minority in the Navy as a whole, but that does not say how many there are. I expect that there are quite a few star-lines members on the RF planets.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:I think we're confusing two deployments. There's one to Felix, lasting 8 and a half years, which is crewed by reliable yet regular Mannerheim people, which the support people back in their homeworld know all about. They are told that they're there to protect the Felix Junction, but which they do not outright own so it would be unwise to let the secret out. It would be economically ruinous to the system. Just point at what Manticore did with Idaho and discussion is over. This force might include even SDs: so long as their absence from Mannerheim can be explained away to the galaxy at large, the work is done.

Then there's the second one, even more secret, that was deployed from Felix to The Twins, whose mission was to intercept Harvest Joy and make it unable to transit back to the Congo System. This mission was the one crewed almost exclusively with Mesan star-lines and is probably the biggest they can deploy without support people in Mannerheim not in the know getting suspicious. This second is the one I'm arguing needed only to be on-station for about a year,

My bad; I see you are right and I have been confused.

Ignore this interruption and carry on.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:This was Adm. Rozak and he did not accurately report back to FF HQ either his forces coming into the conflict nor the forces that did attack Torch. So the SLN did not know it had a multi-ship loss against an enemy of near parity strength. I don't remember if he even reported any losses at all! He certainly did not report the captures, those were quietly given to the Royal Torch Navy.

Remember that his cover was that he was helping Erewhon: he was buying a few ships, but the majority were for Erewhon. So they were crewed mostly by Erewhonese spacers. Any losses would be explained away by an inexperienced neobarb crew and shoddy neobarb construction. In fact, he'd have worded his report carefully such that the latter aspect was the conclusion HQ would draw.

Sure. And EVERY SINGLE member of the crew of EVERY SINGLE ship was fully read into the conspiracy, right? As was EVERY SINGLE orbital maintenance tech, and EVERY SINGLE payroll and receiving clerk in the entire sector navy?

Would you like to buy a bridge?

ThinksMarkedly wrote:This was Adm. Rozak and he did not accurately report back to FF HQ either his forces coming into the conflict nor the forces that did attack Torch. So the SLN did not know it had a multi-ship loss against an enemy of near parity strength. I don't remember if he even reported any losses at all! He certainly did not report the captures, those were quietly given to the Royal Torch Navy.

Remember that his cover was that he was helping Erewhon: he was buying a few ships, but the majority were for Erewhon. So they were crewed mostly by Erewhonese spacers. Any losses would be explained away by an inexperienced neobarb crew and shoddy neobarb construction. In fact, he'd have worded his report carefully such that the latter aspect was the conclusion HQ would draw.

kzt wrote:Sure. And EVERY SINGLE member of the crew of EVERY SINGLE ship was fully read into the conspiracy, right? As was EVERY SINGLE orbital maintenance tech, and EVERY SINGLE payroll and receiving clerk in the entire sector navy?

Would you like to buy a bridge?

But we know that the League headquarters did not think anything was wrong in the Maya Sector until presented with evidence of the governor meeting with "Manticoran" officials. They did not have to be in a conspiracy for the correct version to fail to get back.

You are right that there perhaps should have been whispers that made it back to Sol, but that did not seem to happen. Or have I been mistaken about that also?

The SLN losing a ship in combat seems about as common as the USN losing a ship in combat. And the last USN vessel sunk due to enemy action was the USS Magpie in 1950.

Do you think that if a USN task force got mauled and 50% sunk by the Paraguean Navy this would tend to attract some attention? Yeah, me too. It would be the lead story on evey single network and the cover of every major newspaper, and not just in the US. It would be a huge international story. The Plot is very strong in that storyline.

tlb wrote:But we know that the League headquarters did not think anything was wrong in the Maya Sector until presented with evidence of the governor meeting with "Manticoran" officials. They did not have to be in a conspiracy for the correct version to fail to get back.

You are right that there perhaps should have been whispers that made it back to Sol, but that did not seem to happen. Or have I been mistaken about that also?

There are just too many leaks in the pipeline for the information to reach FF HQ accurately.

Rozak was probably crewing such ships with locally-raised crewmembers and trusted officers, so those had no loyalty to FF HQ. They also had no reason to suspect anything was amiss in reporting, so it may have not occurred to them to file a whistleblower report.

The few "foreign" transfers were probably kept out of the loop. It wouldn't be difficult to note who they are and make sure they didn't go into the Second Battle of Congo.

The work up exercises were done with Erewhon techs. The ones in Smoking Frog probably knew the story being fed to HQ: a few Erewhonese ships being bought to supplement FF and to raw Erewhon back into the Solarian sphere of influence.

Reports sent to Sol probably went through Rozak's staff anyway, so they also had the opportunity to edit or suppress anything they didn't want getting back just yet. Anything they missed would likely be buried under a lot of other, self-consistent reporting that was sent. And even if found, any outrageous claims would be dismissed just as those of RMN and RHN missile salvos and ranges were.

They didn't need complete secrecy, just good enough and for sufficient time.

kzt wrote:The SLN losing a ship in combat seems about as common as the USN losing a ship in combat. And the last USN vessel sunk due to enemy action was the USS Magpie in 1950.

Do you think that if a USN task force got mauled and 50% sunk by the Paraguean Navy this would tend to attract some attention? Yeah, me too. It would be the lead story on evey single network and the cover of every major newspaper, and not just in the US. It would be a huge international story. The Plot is very strong in that storyline.

Well, that would be quite a feat because Paraguay doesn't have a sea Navy! They only have a river Navy, as they're landlocked.

Anyway, jokes aside, you're probably right that SLN losing shipss was rare, but not that rare. They probably lost a few every now and again to pirates (which this was) and some ill-advised warlord. The SLN had a policy of crushing any upstart that stood up to it probably because it happened at least a few times a century.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:
That's not a 4-year deployment. Congo fell in 1919, so that's when then started putting together the task force. They were probably hurrying, but then Manticore announced Harvest Joy was going. At that point, with the research in the open, they had the time to do it right.

Between 1919 and 1923 when the RF was formed its 4 years, that's 4 years of breadcrumbs that the GA intelligence services are going to be looking through over the next little while. If the other end of the Congo WH was important they wouldn't have depended on an announcement they either defend it from the first minute they can get ships to the station or they don't, there isn't a middle ground where they prepare their ships and wait for 2 years hoping Torch/Manticore announce their survey well ahead of time. Think about the logistics of that, they have to get the news from Manticore to Mesa and from Mesa to Manerheim.

So let's say the task force got to The Twins in mid-1920. They were there until the Harvest Joy transited, that was in 1921. After that no-return transit, the danger lessened. It might be acceptable to send someone from Felix to The Twins every couple of weeks to see if another survey ship is there trying to figure out how to go through. That would mean the location of The Twins has been compromised, but not yet of Felix.

The danger is lessened, but what if the GA sends another ship through to the system? Goes through at a random time and hauls ass as soon as it goes through while trying to get a bearing, no point surveying the system if you already know where it is so it goes home gives the GA the coordinates and the GA sends a squadron or two of SD(P)'s and CLAC's to investigate why that system was so rough on the survey ship.

Just because you don't think something is likely doesn't mean its not likely, it means that you still defend that objective, you might cut back on the firepower from 8 BC's to 4 with some CL's and DD's but it doesn't mean that once they tried one time its over.

That may not be a wise policy, but it may be the lesser risk of the options.

Not if they want to keep that system's location secret.

As you've argued, keeping secret squadrons a secret from everyone in the navy is a difficult proposition long-term. Better to lose The Twins than to have the GA poking around the RF Navy trying to figure out why it has squadrons disappearing for extended periods and a third shift impeller tech was bragging about bagging a pirate at the time Harvest Joy transited.

Or the MA deploys 6-8 Shark-Class ships and a handful of Ghost-class ships to picket the 2 systems and Nobody is going to ask too many questions about ships if no one can see those ships. At this point with the way things turned out the RF has to be taking a serious step back and keeping it's head down which means that they have to go about their business of organizing their new nation and consolidating their new military while trying to look as innocent as possible. For the Foreseeable future the MAN will not be deploying its ships in combat unless they have a hell of a lot of SD(P)'s of their own why not picket the systems with ships no one will miss since no one will know they exist and if something comes into the system anyway they can sit there and wait them out or ambush them.

Sigs wrote:Between 1919 and 1923 when the RF was formed its 4 years, that's 4 years of breadcrumbs that the GA intelligence services are going to be looking through over the next little while. If the other end of the Congo WH was important they wouldn't have depended on an announcement they either defend it from the first minute they can get ships to the station or they don't, there isn't a middle ground where they prepare their ships and wait for 2 years hoping Torch/Manticore announce their survey well ahead of time. Think about the logistics of that, they have to get the news from Manticore to Mesa and from Mesa to Manerheim.

I argued that the task force was at The Twins for only one year: from 1920 to 1921, until Harvest Joy transited. After that, they stopped round-the-clock picketing The Twins. And I argued that they probably started the preparations to get there very quickly after Congo fell, but then stopped the rush when the Harvest Joy mission was announced. They could've got there a lot quicker, but didn't need to.

The location of The Twins is not important. What was important was to make sure Harvest Joy didn't return, so the survey in Congo stalled an spent a lot of time re-analysing the data. It was supposed to buy time.

The danger is lessened, but what if the GA sends another ship through to the system? Goes through at a random time and hauls ass as soon as it goes through while trying to get a bearing, no point surveying the system if you already know where it is so it goes home gives the GA the coordinates and the GA sends a squadron or two of SD(P)'s and CLAC's to investigate why that system was so rough on the survey ship.

Just because you don't think something is likely doesn't mean its not likely, it means that you still defend that objective, you might cut back on the firepower from 8 BC's to 4 with some CL's and DD's but it doesn't mean that once they tried one time its over.

If that happens, then the location of The Twins is compromised. But the GA still won't know about Felix.

But if a ship transits from Felix while a squadron of SD(P)s is already at The Twins protecting the research vessel, it'll be captured and then its relationship to the Mannerheim Navy can't be hidden. Even if it isn't captured and just self-destructs or manages to transit back, the squadron can probably fingerprint the Mannerheim Navy. So I think my idea of sending a ship every few weeks is a bad one.

They'll either need to picket The Twins round the clock and catch another research ship transiting or they give it up.

Or the third option:

Or the MA deploys 6-8 Shark-Class ships and a handful of Ghost-class ships to picket the 2 systems and Nobody is going to ask too many questions about ships if no one can see those ships. At this point with the way things turned out the RF has to be taking a serious step back and keeping it's head down which means that they have to go about their business of organizing their new nation and consolidating their new military while trying to look as innocent as possible. For the Foreseeable future the MAN will not be deploying its ships in combat unless they have a hell of a lot of SD(P)'s of their own why not picket the systems with ships no one will miss since no one will know they exist and if something comes into the system anyway they can sit there and wait them out or ambush them.

That makes a lot more sense. The Twins is closer to Darius than it is to Mannerheim, so why did the MAlign entrust that task to Mannerheim and run the risk of leak than to have the MAN picket The Twins? The MAN personnel have no contact with the outside world, so even if they were not dedicated to the cause, they couldn't leak even even if they wanted to.

My immediate conclusion is that they couldn't. Which makes no sense, since the MAN must have had a couple of BC-sized ships by then. It did have Shark prototypes already, so it must have been building up the tech ladder.