ThinksMarkedly wrote:
My argument is that they didn't have a large number under construction during OB or shortly thereafter. The entire type and design was untested and the evidence for that is the Shark class itself. They wouldn't have any more than 3 hulls under construction at the time and the yard may have capacity for at most 10 at a time. So "how long would it take to finish" is a question that can't be answered, they have to start them first.
In Mission of honor During a visit to Darius after OB, Albrecht Detweiler in part of the chapter it says “Most of the still far from complete Detweilers were already larger than the sharks—in many cases, substantially larger…” To me that indicated there are a significant number, maybe 100 is an extreme guess but it sounds the way its worded like they are talking about in the dozens rather than just 3.
Remember that the plan itself had a timeline of decades. OB was anticipated by several years, maybe a decade. See the other thread on the plan being derailed: the idea would be that both SEM would cease to exist, Haven would have fought the SL until it lost the ability to fight, with the human settled space left in ruins. The plan was for the fleet only to be needed 15-20 years from now.
My understanding of the plan involved weakening the SEM and forcing a fight between them and the League in which the RMN is forced to crush the SLN fracturing the League but exhausting themselves and their means of defence. Once the RMN is near defenceless because even if they got their missile production going in 10 months or less it would only be a fraction of their pre-OB production so they will have used everything they had to keep the SLN at bay which would have given the Republic an opening to hit the SEM. Once Manticore falls, the Republic would be to busy incorporating as much of its territory as it can (Talbot, Silesia and the allies) and wouldn’t have any attention to spare for the League. With the League potentially fractured into hundreds of independent nations the RF has a chance to unite.
Honestly the League and the SEM fighting would have to result in the destruction of the League before the Republic would have even thought about attacking the SEM otherwise they will spend a lot of lives, resources and ships to capture the Manticore Home System only to have to hand it over to the League or the League would back down after the SEM is done long enough to build a navy to compete with Haven and then come and take it from the RHN. Anything else leaves the League intact and stronger or forces the Republic to back down and handover the SEM to the League because no matter how superior their technology is they wont have the same advantages as the SEM and they know that their long term chances of survival would be slim which also leaves the League in a stronger position with a Republic of Haven that is significantly limited in it's growth potential.
We know enough about the RF, including that they had two very visible Solarian League members: Mannerheim and Visigoth. Mannerheim was one of the league members to have an unusually large navy. Even the SLN and the Mandarins knew about this, so Mannerheim showing up with ships that couldn't be accounted for would raise a lot of suspicions.
But at the same time, Mannerheim consistently missing a good chunk of their fleet because it is deployed to guard the other end of the wormhole of Torch would raise sucpisions especially if they have had to do it for a decade or more. And by secret I mean they are hidden, not shown until they are needed. Not being able to explain where at least 8 of your BC’s are at anyone time for decades would be suspicious, maybe not at the time but it sure would raise some flags when the GA starts digging. Not to mention the fact that you have to have a reliable crew for each and every one of those BC’s and reliable crews for every other ship that relieves them. Unless there was something valuable in the system that could justify 8 BC’s as a picket or the Mannerheim fleet was numbered in the hundreds of BC’s where one squadron missing would not be a big deal but it still leaves the reliable crew question.
As for Mannerheim destroying the HMS Haverst Joy at the Twins, that was a squadron of BCs. The commanding officers and crew knew why, but I doubt the impeller techs on third shift knew. They know that they are protecting a wormhole that is a secret but think it's an economic reason.
And you have to rotate the picket home eventually, you cant set up a picket for long term without this getting out and the GA sending a ship or two to investigate this “secret” wormhole. Even when Torch was under Mesa’s control you would still want a picket there just in case. Rotating ships through this deployment for any length of time even if its only the 3 years since Torch was liberated it would mean you have to rotate at LEAST 3 squadrons in which still leaves the crew’s of 24 BC’s with the knowledge of a “secret” wormhole. How long before someone brags at a bar or a party somewhere that in early 1921 they were in a battle while guarding a secret wormhole terminus? And how long before one of the GA’s intelligence services manages to get a sniff of that? At this point with the RF being an independent nation if I were the GA I would make sure that we have intelligence assets on the ground in the main systems of that nation. The battle that they hear about coincides with Harvest Joy going missing, soon enough they cut back through the bullshit and exaggerations and they have all they need “secret wormhole, picket squadron, date of contact”. If you have ships that are not in the public eye and crews that don’t officially belong to you it works, otherwise you leave scarps even if you feed your crews some BS about guarding important economic assets.
They may have built conventional SDs, but they can't have a lot of them. First, there was no need to have more than maybe a squadron. Second, we know that the MAN itself was a relatively new navy, so they can't have been building for centuries and can't have got the pace to build 50 per year. Third, we think the Lenny Dets are much bigger than SDs, so the slips need to be expanded. Fourth, their design is also radically different, so the yard needs to be retooled from building SDs.
Having a defence makes sense. But I don't see the need for investing in more than a squadron of SDs.
1) I would say that convincing your population that you need a fleet for self defence and waiting 170 years to build a fleet for self defence lets people lose confidence in the threat especially with prolong. So that to me would require a significant enough navy to at least point to your own people and show them the fleet is out there guarding you from the enemy.
2) Relatively new could mean different things depending on what/who you are comparing it to. Both the RHN and RMN have histories that span over 400 years each, the BSDF probably dates back to before the League(750 years or more) and the SLN is over 750 years old as well. Darius has been settled for at least 170 years which means that for 170 years they have been convincing people that there is a need for a large navy, ergo for 170 years they have to be proving that by having a sizable navy.
3) Size is irrelevant, yeah they need to change the way they work when building much bigger ships of a radically different design but that’s where an experienced workforce pays off because that workforce is more flexible and can adapt to changing environments while an inexperienced workforce without the individual experience of its workers and the institutional experience will at best struggle in ways you wont want when you are at war.
Agreed: a few decades before they need them. My argument is that they were on timeline of the plan: they didn't expect the need for them for a couple more decades. They were preparing to be ready by the time they themselves threw the shit on the fan (they didn't want to be surprised). They'd have time to train their navy, which we see evidence of with the Sharks.
What I mean is that if you estimate that your “d-day” would be in 1950 and you need to start the process in 1920 to be fully ready for 1950 I would start in 1890. This gives you more wiggle room, if you need to kick it off early, you have the ships, the crews and the capacity to build more ships and train more crew, if you need to hold off for a couple of decades extra this gives you more time to prepare your crews, increase the size of your navy. If I need to be at work for 6:30 am and to be 5 minutes early I need to leave at 5:50 am I plan on leaving at 5:40 am so that I have some room for traffic, construction etc… and this is for 40 min ahead, when they are planning in centuries rather than minutes, hours , days or months the fudge factor has to be in dacades since only an idiot would have a rock solid plan that gives no wiggle room and worse would instigate a war with a powerful and extremely pissed off enemy and leave the initiative entirely in the hands of that enemy for dacades.
They couldn't have predicted the breakthrough in the spider drive, but it was timely, since they didn't have a fleet made obsolete by it. It gave them a tactical advantage that no one else has.
Having 500 SD(P)’s at the Havenite Level or better and discovering the spider drive wouldn’t make their fleet obsolete, it would make it more flexible, you have ships that are proven to be able to go toe to toe with the enemy and you have a secret weapon that can sneak into a system ahead of your main force and sow confusion and destruction in the enemy before battle is even joined. Whats better is you have a doctrine that already works when you take the doctrine from the RMN and RHN and add your own touch to it. As it stands the MAN is planning a war with unproven ships with a radically different doctrine than anyone else in history and banking on the enemy not being able to find a way to get them on sensors. If their ships don't measure up or their doctrine doesn't measure up or the enemy finds a solution to the spider drive they are in serious trouble.
