Sigs wrote:If they had an unknown but presumably large number under construction right after OB how long would they need to finish them? If it takes decades for them to finish the ships under construction they may want to start working on their terms of surrender. Even if they had 30,40 or 50 under construction I imagine that as soon as they are finished and properly manned and worked up they would be going out and being let loose. The last thing I want is to build this magnificent fleet that takes me 20-30 years to build only to realize that the design isn't as good as I though. They will have an unknown # of Leonard Detweiler class SD(P)'s and 28 Shark Class BB's and they can start launching attacks on the GA to build combat experience and verify that their equipment and doctrine actually work.
My argument is that they didn't have a large number under construction during OB or shortly thereafter. The entire type and design was untested and the evidence for that is the Shark class itself. They wouldn't have any more than 3 hulls under construction at the time and the yard may have capacity for at most 10 at a time. So "how long would it take to finish" is a question that can't be answered, they have to start them first.
Remember that the plan itself had a timeline of decades. OB was anticipated by several years, maybe a decade. See the other thread on the plan being derailed: the idea would be that both SEM would cease to exist, Haven would have fought the SL until it lost the ability to fight, with the human settled space left in ruins. The plan was for the fleet only to be needed 15-20 years from now.
In any case, your argument is also why you don't build 50 untested units of a class at a time. You build a few to see how they fare, how they handle, how maintenance is done, then you iron out the kinks and build more.
Sigs wrote:We don't know much about the RF, and we don't know how visible their fleet is. For all we know they have 12 members with 12 very visible navies and a secret combined fleet of unknown size and capabilities. If everything was going according to plan no one who could do much about it would have been around to ask any uncomfortable questions. One of the things that we know about the RF is that it was guarding the other end of the Torch WH, so it would have to be with ships that have fully reliable crews and wont be missed. After all if your navy has 24 SD's/DN's and at anyone time 1/3 to 1/4 of them is unaccounted for someone might ask questions.
We know enough about the RF, including that they had two very visible Solarian League members: Mannerheim and Visigoth. Mannerheim was one of the league members to have an unusually large navy. Even the SLN and the Mandarins knew about this, so Mannerheim showing up with ships that couldn't be accounted for would raise a lot of suspicions.
I'm also making a distinction between the MAN and the RFN: the former is a secret navy, the latter is quite visible. There may be some cross-training between the two, with good and trusted officers from the RFN helping train the MAN and create the doctrine for the LDs. But it can't be widespread.
As for Mannerheim destroying the HMS Haverst Joy at the Twins, that was a squadron of BCs. The commanding officers and crew knew why, but I doubt the impeller techs on third shift knew. They know that they are protecting a wormhole that is a secret but think it's an economic reason.
Sigs wrote:What if they have been building SD's for the MAN for the last 100 years or so? Started with a couple per years and within the last 30-40 years scaled up to 50-60 per year and now they take all of this already established shipyard capacity and turn out Leonard Detweiler class ships. You don't get trained crews for the Shark Class out of a cereal box and at the same time you want some sort of defence even for a system that no one knows about, I mean do you want the one system that the entire MA plan rests on being able to be taken out by a single pirate ship?
They may have built conventional SDs, but they can't have a lot of them. First, there was no need to have more than maybe a squadron. Second, we know that the MAN itself was a relatively new navy, so they can't have been building for centuries and can't have got the pace to build 50 per year. Third, we think the Lenny Dets are much bigger than SDs, so the slips need to be expanded. Fourth, their design is also radically different, so the yard needs to be retooled from building SDs.
Having a defence makes sense. But I don't see the need for investing in more than a squadron of SDs.
Sigs wrote:My point is that they have known for 600 years their end goal, unless they are complete idiots they would have started building up their capacity and experience for a few decades before they actually thought they needed to start so they can have the ability to pump out hundreds of capital ships/year when it hits the fan rather than start building their capabilities in the last years before kicking off your plan. Same would go for a navy, building a navy from scratch in a 10-20 years seems like a bad plan if you want a competent navy. The RMN has hundreds of years of experience, their training and institutional experience allows them to be flexible. MAN could have been getting their manpower from the RF but that carries its own risk if people have to permanently disappear, even if the chance is small it still is there.
Agreed: a few decades before they need them. My argument is that they were on timeline of the plan: they didn't expect the need for them for a couple more decades. They were preparing to be ready by the time they themselves threw the shit on the fan (they didn't want to be surprised). They'd have time to train their navy, which we see evidence of with the Sharks.
They couldn't have predicted the breakthrough in the spider drive, but it was timely, since they didn't have a fleet made obsolete by it. It gave them a tactical advantage that no one else has.
But the plan derailed. The human space is not in the state that they wanted it to be at this point in the Plan.