Would Dispersing Shipyards Blunt or Stop a Second Oyster Bay

ThinksMarkedly wrote:
She who? Honor? The supreme commander of the Grand Fleet? The half-treecat empath who thwarted an assassination on herself by shooting someone with her finger? Who thwarted an assassination attempt on Protector Benjamin with her bare hands and her treecat? Who won two pistol duels and one sword one? What danger is there in revealing the location to her? I'm not even sure she was given exact spatial coordinates, only what galactic region it lies in (between Manticore and Sol, not between Manticore and Haven, or out past Haven).

Or did you mean Eloise, President Pritchart of the Republic of Haven? Who visited Sanctuary in 1915-16 to meet with the Shikahrna? Maybe Queen and Empress Elizabeth III, head of state and of government for the Star Empire of Manticore, the most important ally of Haven's, who would have insisted in knowing before sending Sonja Hemphill, Admiral Low Delhi, Fifth Lord of the Admiralty and protégée of her uncle there?

All three of whom are now defended by personal guards and pulser-wielding treecats?

There are certain things you have to tell the commander in chief. Which is why we know there are no aliens at Area 51, because you know the current president would have tweeted about it...

His point is very valid, in the military having a top secret security clearance is not enough you also need to know the particular information before you get the information. Admiral Harrington did NOT need to know where Bolthole is, just because there is no chance of her spilling the beans doesn't negate the fact that she does not need to know the location of Bolthole since it does not affect her job performance in any way shape or form if she were deprived of that particular tidbit.

Sigs wrote:Legitimate navies are those with DN and above and those that will get DN/SD/BC(P)/BC(L)/SD(P) within a few years. Most of the navies in the honorverse are at best system defence forces at worst a couple of LAC's acting as a coast guard.

Ok, so you're using the same ranking that Theemile did: a first-rate navy is one that has at least one capital ship. There are probably 20-25 with a squadron of those, double that with less than one squadron but at least one hull. Of course, faring against a Saganami-C or Nike, most of those are targets, not a real fighting vessel.

Sigs wrote:With Missile Pods from the Erewhon Navy, SD(P)'s and LAC's they will make a formidable force which will prove a challenge to anything short of 100% of the SLN. Once the GA installes fixed defences in the Mayan Region its game over because the SLN wont be able to hit them even if the entire SLN showed up on time and ready to fight.

You're talking about the SLN attacking someone. We've argued back and forth and mostly concluded that a system with a tens of thousands of missile pods is unassailable by anything short of two RMN or RHN squadrons of SD(P)s.

But we were talking about the SLN being defenceless, which means being unable to stand on defence of their worlds. You have to invert the situation: could the MARSN attack a SL system and conquer it? The SLN has had missile pods for a year now in 1923 and the MARSN has one or two SD(P)s total by the end of the year.

How do you break the tie? I put them face to face confrontation: SD vs SD. The SLN has far more of them, so it's able to soak up damage dished out by the pair of MARSN SD(P)s, which don't have the full technology package from the Manticore and Haven (close, but not quite). That's why I put the SLN above the MARSN.

Sigs wrote:Within a couple of years. When by 1925-1930 9 of the Navies on the list have enough SD(P)'s and fixed defences to face off the SLN and win without too much problem while at the same time being able to go into virtually any system in the League without too much worry I think the SLN gets a low rank.

No. By 1930, the SLN will have SD(P)s too, with missiles probably at 1919 Havenite quality (Operation Thunderbolt) or surpassing. The navies aligned with the GA (RMN, RHN, BSDF, GSN, ESN, possibly the MARSN) will have something better, but at that point "quantity has a quality of its own" will apply again, so I don't think we can safely say the ESN and MARSN will rank above the SLN.

Sigs wrote:

The position of the Mesan Alignment Navy is unknown. They have no SDs or SD(P)s as of 1923 and won't until some 5 years from now. Of course, no one outside of the MAlign itself knows that.

Arent the Leonard Detweiler class SD(P)'s?

I'm not sure if they qualify as SD(P)s. They are SD-size, though. But the point is that they aren't ready nor won't be for another couple of years.

Sigs wrote:If the MARSN send out a fleet of 20 SD(P)'s with say 10 CLAC's 5 years down the road to any system in the League the SLN has nothing to stop them with unless they happen on 40+% of the SLN SD strength being gathered in that system. On the flip side with the upgrades to system defences that the GA is probably going to give them, the MARSN will definitely be a tough nut to crack even for the entire SLN fleet.

The MARSN will not have 20 SD(P)s and 10 CLACs in 5 years, unless they buy from Manticore, Haven or Grayson. Even then, I think it's unlikely they'll expand their navy that fast. They're commissioning their very first SD(P) in 1923 and there was no discussion about a CLAC being built by Carlucci. Their build rate is probably the normal 3 years per SD and if they go quickly, they'll be building 3 or 4 at a time. That's 20 years to get 20 SD(P)s.

Grayson did grow much faster, but Grayson was under existential threat during the war, while Maya isn't, and had very close Manticoran support, which Maya won't have.

And in any case, by the time the MARSN has 10 SD(P)s, the SLN will have 100.

Sigs wrote:

1. RMN
2. RHN
3. GSN
4. IAN
5. Erewhon Navy( I am going to assume that since they are building SD(P)'s for MARSN they first build some for themselves.)
6. BSDF(Within a couple of years)
7. RF(We don't know what they have)
8. MAN(They will have SD(P)'s shortly)
9. MARSN(Soon to have SD(P)'s and Mycroft)
10. SLN

The RF may be below the SLN or may be above the SLN. Once the BSDF has their SD(P)'s and LAC's they would be able to face the remaining SLN SD's without too much of a problem.

If you're ranking based on what they'll have two years from now, I think the IAN will be ahead of the GSN and I think the BSDF will be ahead of the ESN. You predicted they'll have 80 SD(P)s in a few short years and I agree.

But the very next on the list is going to be the SLN. The RFN will not get any SD(P)s any time soon. The MAN is getting something different and building the Leonard Detweilers slowly. Don't forget they're untested classes. The SLN has to start from further back, but once it masses resources to do so, it'll build them faster, or at least in more volume.

Sigs wrote:
I think we'll have to agree to disagree. I'll just reiterate my point once again: it's not about why someone did what they did, whether it was a success or not, but how they went about it. Though I have to concede that increasing complexity also increases the chances of something going wrong.

No, they could have taken the entire sustem with somewhat more force. Remeber the comments of the queen. .

kzt wrote:

Sigs wrote:
I think we'll have to agree to disagree. I'll just reiterate my point once again: it's not about why someone did what they did, whether it was a success or not, but how they went about it. Though I have to concede that increasing complexity also increases the chances of something going wrong.

No, they could have taken the entire sustem with somewhat more force. Remeber the comments of the queen. .

Was their goal the destruction of everything in the system including Home Fleet? Would the destruction of Home Fleet and every other major concentration of wallers and industry accomplished the MA's goals? If they had 300 Shark-class ships at their disposal instead of 30, would it have benefited their end result to destroy 200+ RMN SD(P)'s, 150+ GSN SD(P)'s and all of the SEM's out-system industry?


If their ultimate goal was the destruction of the 3 yards and all the ships being built there and all the ships in refit would sending double or triple the attacking force accomplish that any better?

Sigs wrote:Was their goal the destruction of everything in the system including Home Fleet? Would the destruction of Home Fleet and every other major concentration of wallers and industry accomplished the MA's goals? If they had 300 Shark-class ships at their disposal instead of 30, would it have benefited their end result to destroy 200+ RMN SD(P)'s, 150+ GSN SD(P)'s and all of the SEM's out-system industry?

"Think about it, Willie," White Haven said. "If someone had anything like the number of capital ships we have, and if all of them had this kind of technology, they wouldn't have had to raid our infrastructure. They could have simply arrived, demonstrated their invisibility, and demanded our surrender, and we wouldn't have had any choice but to give it to them. If they'd gotten a couple of dozen capital ships with this new drive of theirs as far in-system as they got their pods before launch, what other option would we have had? Even if we'd wanted to bring in Home Fleet—every single ship at Trevor's Star, for that matter—they'd already have control the planetary orbitals long before we could get into position. For that matter, they'd've been into missile range of the planets before we could even bring the system-defense missiles online to nail them! And even under the Eridani Edict, they'd be fully justified in bombarding the planets if we refused to surrender under those circumstances. But instead of going for the jugular, they attacked our arms and legs.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:
Ok, so you're using the same ranking that Theemile did: a first-rate navy is one that has at least one capital ship. There are probably 20-25 with a squadron of those, double that with less than one squadron but at least one hull. Of course, faring against a Saganami-C or Nike, most of those are targets, not a real fighting vessel.

Yes, and the only once that matter are the 9 above the SLN in firepower. Every other navy is either controlled by a League member or is insignificant because they have limited numbers of technologically equal or inferior SD's. And ultimately the specifically and the League in general will be worried about those above whether they act aggressive or try to act as unaggressive as possible.

You're talking about the SLN attacking someone. We've argued back and forth and mostly concluded that a system with a tens of thousands of missile pods is unassailable by anything short of two RMN or RHN squadrons of SD(P)s.

That’s my point, the navies above the SLN can protect themselves against pretty much anything the SLN can throw at them because they have technologically superior weapon systems even if they are not the newest generation of RMN/RHN weapons. And for a few of those navies the only way they can even remotely be threatened is if they stumbled on a system with a significant presence of SLN wallers. The SLN cannot do a thing to them and worse they cant stop them from doing whatever they want to the League. The only reason they haven’t carved up the League at that point is because they don’t want to, not because the League can do anything to prevent them from doing so. That is what will motivate them to invest as much as they need to get parity, no one wants to have their livelihood and freedom dependant on the goodwill of another nation if they have a choice and the League most definitely has a choice.

But we were talking about the SLN being defenceless, which means being unable to stand on defence of their worlds. You have to invert the situation: could the MARSN attack a SL system and conquer it? The SLN has had missile pods for a year now in 1923 and the MARSN has one or two SD(P)s total by the end of the year.

The question is not weather they would, the question is whether they could. They may have an SD(P) or two by end of 1923 but they may have a squadron or two by end of 1925. When the GA gets around to fortifying Erewhon and Maya to their level with state of the art weapon systems anything short of a task force of SD(P)’s wont stand chance which means that the SLN is SOL.

How do you break the tie? I put them face to face confrontation: SD vs SD. The SLN has far more of them, so it's able to soak up damage dished out by the pair of MARSN SD(P)s, which don't have the full technology package from the Manticore and Haven (close, but not quite). That's why I put the SLN above the MARSN.

Right now, what happens when they have a couple of squadrons of SD(P)’s in a couple of years? What happens if they manage to convince a bunch of Frontier Fleet personel to join their cause after the SLN used them to commit war crimes AND moving targets? In 5 years MARSN can have 2 or 3 squadrons of SD(P)’s, in the same time the SLN will either have 1,500 SD’s or will be producing SD(P)’s of their own that will be only marginally better than the SD’s they have.

No. By 1930, the SLN will have SD(P)s too, with missiles probably at 1919 Havenite quality (Operation Thunderbolt) or surpassing. The navies aligned with the GA (RMN, RHN, BSDF, GSN, ESN, possibly the MARSN) will have something better, but at that point "quantity has a quality of its own" will apply again, so I don't think we can safely say the ESN and MARSN will rank above the SLN.

Not if they don’t invest money in research, design and construction of those ships. I thought the whole argument was that they didn’t need to build a modern fleet because they have missile pods that made them not defensless.

Sigs wrote:

The position of the Mesan Alignment Navy is unknown. They have no SDs or SD(P)s as of 1923 and won't until some 5 years from now. Of course, no one outside of the MAlign itself knows that.

Arent the Leonard Detweiler class SD(P)'s?

I'm not sure if they qualify as SD(P)s. They are SD-size, though. But the point is that they aren't ready nor won't be for another couple of years.

I don’t have the book of my phone at the moment so I cant check it but checking on the Honorverse wiki page and from memory they had a significant number of those ships planned with if I remember correctly at least twice as many being close to completion as there were shark class and they were the MA’s version of SD(P)’s. Keep in mind that the MA has kept track of the war and knew about the SD(P)’s probably from the end of the first war, they most likely had access to most of the sensor data up until the clean up by the new government and maybe even until now, so I doubt they would lay down SD’s and not SD(P)’s unless their SD’s were radically different in design and significantly more powerful to make them worthwhile. They are playing the game based on their time table while all the other players aren’t aware they are even at the table.

The MARSN will not have 20 SD(P)s and 10 CLACs in 5 years, unless they buy from Manticore, Haven or Grayson. Even then, I think it's unlikely they'll expand their navy that fast. They're commissioning their very first SD(P) in 1923 and there was no discussion about a CLAC being built by Carlucci. Their build rate is probably the normal 3 years per SD and if they go quickly, they'll be building 3 or 4 at a time. That's 20 years to get 20 SD(P)s.

There are probably 600-800 SD(P)’s in Havenite yards along with a couple of hundred CLAC’s, they will buy what they have ordered from Erewhon and the rest they will probably buy from the RHN’s yards. Erewhon are businessman they will likely buy some ready ships to shore-up their defences. Afterall every neutral nation will be building a fleet as fast as they can place their order so Erewhon will not be losing out on business, then there are thousands of verge systems that will need CA and below most likely LAC’s not to mention core/shell systems that leave the League.

Grayson did grow much faster, but Grayson was under existential threat during the war, while Maya isn't, and had very close Manticoran support, which Maya won't have.

But Maya is starting far ahead in terms of industry and infrastructure compared to Grayson, also they have more systems and were one of the wealthier sectors. Frontier Security and Frontier Fleet are being disbanded, chances are that Adm. Rozsak and governor Barregos have a contingency plan to bring in disgruntled and reliable FF personnel. Also it is well in the GA’s favour to encourage and assist in the MARSN’s build up, the stronger they are the less the GA has to worry about them, protect them and in fact the less they have to devote to the entire region. Maya could spread to neighbouring sectors as well, a large allied nation that is strong is better then a large weak dependant entity.

If you're ranking based on what they'll have two years from now, I think the IAN will be ahead of the GSN and I think the BSDF will be ahead of the ESN. You predicted they'll have 80 SD(P)s in a few short years and I agree.

The actual ranking does not matter, the RMN/RHN at the top and all the navies that matter between them and the SLN means that the SLN will be very motivated to gain parity as quickly as possible.

But the very next on the list is going to be the SLN. The RFN will not get any SD(P)s any time soon. The MAN is getting something different and building the Leonard Detweilers slowly. Don't forget they're untested classes. The SLN has to start from further back, but once it masses resources to do so, it'll build them faster, or at least in more volume.

That’s my point, the League has to invest as much as they can in research and development and start building SD(P)’s as quickly as they can. They can build SD(P)’s within 3-5 years, they wont be much better than the SD’s but it will be a step forward and it would give them the tools to start building confidence in themselves and start building doctrine around SD(P)’s and LAC’s. It will also expand their shipbuilding capabilities and give their new yards experience. The League has the money and resources to dump into this project and they most definitely have the motivation to do so as well.

kzt wrote:

Sigs wrote:Was their goal the destruction of everything in the system including Home Fleet? Would the destruction of Home Fleet and every other major concentration of wallers and industry accomplished the MA's goals? If they had 300 Shark-class ships at their disposal instead of 30, would it have benefited their end result to destroy 200+ RMN SD(P)'s, 150+ GSN SD(P)'s and all of the SEM's out-system industry?

"Think about it, Willie," White Haven said. "If someone had anything like the number of capital ships we have, and if all of them had this kind of technology, they wouldn't have had to raid our infrastructure. They could have simply arrived, demonstrated their invisibility, and demanded our surrender, and we wouldn't have had any choice but to give it to them. If they'd gotten a couple of dozen capital ships with this new drive of theirs as far in-system as they got their pods before launch, what other option would we have had? Even if we'd wanted to bring in Home Fleet—every single ship at Trevor's Star, for that matter—they'd already have control the planetary orbitals long before we could get into position. For that matter, they'd've been into missile range of the planets before we could even bring the system-defense missiles online to nail them! And even under the Eridani Edict, they'd be fully justified in bombarding the planets if we refused to surrender under those circumstances. But instead of going for the jugular, they attacked our arms and legs.

Would the MA's plan benefit if they destroyed everything in the Home system, Home Fleet and 3rd Fleet? What would the destruction of the entire SEM space borne industry and the destruction of the RMN accomplish for the MA? Haven takes all the systems outside of the Manticore Home system and the League takes over Manticore and Talbott. Then they start from scratch creating another incident to create a war between the League and the Republic before which they wont be able to prevent the SLN from using captured technology from the RMN to build their own more capable ships so a few years down the line when they are ready they have a powerful SLN and a RHN that has the proverbial snowballs chance in hell of beating the SLN. So they will have to engineer some crisis to break up the League from the Inside since the potential enemies of the League with the resources to fight them is a very short list if they have the RMN's technology.

Sigs wrote:That’s my point, the navies above the SLN can protect themselves against pretty much anything the SLN can throw at them because they have technologically superior weapon systems even if they are not the newest generation of RMN/RHN weapons. And for a few of those navies the only way they can even remotely be threatened is if they stumbled on a system with a significant presence of SLN wallers. The SLN cannot do a thing to them and worse they cant stop them from doing whatever they want to the League. The only reason they haven’t carved up the League at that point is because they don’t want to, not because the League can do anything to prevent them from doing so. That is what will motivate them to invest as much as they need to get parity, no one wants to have their livelihood and freedom dependant on the goodwill of another nation if they have a choice and the League most definitely has a choice.

I agree the navies comprising the GA could have carved up the League if they wanted to and there's nothing the SLN could have done about it. There's no doubt that the four are at the top of the food chain. Honor decisively proved that by conquering the Sol system without losing a single ship. Not a paint fleck chipped.

The argument isn't about the top 4, it's about where the SLN ranks among the next 15.

Sigs wrote:The question is not weather they would, the question is whether they could. They may have an SD(P) or two by end of 1923 but they may have a squadron or two by end of 1925. When the GA gets around to fortifying Erewhon and Maya to their level with state of the art weapon systems anything short of a task force of SD(P)’s wont stand chance which means that the SLN is SOL.

I agree, it's about whether they could: the MARSN could not take the SLN in 1923, won't be able to in 1925 or in 1930, not unless they go deep into their treasury and buy ships from the GA (more on that below).

If they continue building things on their own, they won't be building an SD any faster than one every 3 years, probably 3.5. The yard in Erewhon had never built SDs before, so they don't have the expertise. Only Manticore could build them in less than 24 months. And we know from the Battle of Torch that those ships Carlucci is building are nowhere as good as RMN/RHN stock: they could fight above their weight against 1913 PRN ships, but barely.

I agree the SLN couldn't take on the Mayan systems after the GA is done fortifying them.

Sigs wrote: Right now, what happens when they have a couple of squadrons of SD(P)’s in a couple of years? What happens if they manage to convince a bunch of Frontier Fleet personel to join their cause after the SLN used them to commit war crimes AND moving targets? In 5 years MARSN can have 2 or 3 squadrons of SD(P)’s, in the same time the SLN will either have 1,500 SD’s or will be producing SD(P)’s of their own that will be only marginally better than the SD’s they have.

Not of own construction, no, they wouldn't have even a single small squadron of 6.

Sigs wrote:

No. By 1930, the SLN will have SD(P)s too, with missiles probably at 1919 Havenite quality (Operation Thunderbolt) or surpassing. The navies aligned with the GA (RMN, RHN, BSDF, GSN, ESN, possibly the MARSN) will have something better, but at that point "quantity has a quality of its own" will apply again, so I don't think we can safely say the ESN and MARSN will rank above the SLN.

Not if they don’t invest money in research, design and construction of those ships. I thought the whole argument was that they didn’t need to build a modern fleet because they have missile pods that made them not defensless.

Sorry, that was never my argument. Of course the SLN will invest to catch up. You're totally right that they don't want to go down on the list any further than they can help it. They will get passed by the BSDF already.

The way I see it, with proper investment, they will stay around #5 or #6 for a while. It won't be easy, they will have an uphill battle without the advantages Haven had to catch up, but like you argued, they have other advantages.

Sigs wrote:I don’t have the book of my phone at the moment so I cant check it but checking on the Honorverse wiki page and from memory they had a significant number of those ships planned with if I remember correctly at least twice as many being close to completion as there were shark class and they were the MA’s version of SD(P)’s. Keep in mind that the MA has kept track of the war and knew about the SD(P)’s probably from the end of the first war, they most likely had access to most of the sensor data up until the clean up by the new government and maybe even until now, so I doubt they would lay down SD’s and not SD(P)’s unless their SD’s were radically different in design and significantly more powerful to make them worthwhile. They are playing the game based on their time table while all the other players aren’t aware they are even at the table.

The MAlign planning is for decades. They definitely knew about SD(P)s since Operation Buttercup and the end of the first war. But we know they had nothing bigger than a BB-sized Shark-class prototype by 1922. The MAN has no experience in shipbuilding. They may have stolen all the plans from Solarian contractors like TIY and they could've inserted their own people to learn a lot, but they couldn't have got the actual experts and workers. And even then there's the problem that the Lenny Dets are a radically different design.

So they can't be building spider-driven SD-sized warships fast. I guess maybe 40 months per ship.

Sigs wrote:There are probably 600-800 SD(P)’s in Havenite yards along with a couple of hundred CLAC’s, they will buy what they have ordered from Erewhon and the rest they will probably buy from the RHN’s yards. Erewhon are businessman they will likely buy some ready ships to shore-up their defences. Afterall every neutral nation will be building a fleet as fast as they can place their order so Erewhon will not be losing out on business, then there are thousands of verge systems that will need CA and below most likely LAC’s not to mention core/shell systems that leave the League.

Indeed there are probably a lot of wallers in the Havenite yards, but I'm guessing their first customers will be other GA full members for the foreseeable future, including Manticore. And for the hulls that aren't too far down the line, they may want to stop and incorporate Manticoran technology, especially Keyhole II.

Then there's the question of whether Maya should buy that many wallers. They have only a small core of naval personnel under Adm. Rozak. Your idea of getting FF personnel who finally saw the truth is a good idea. It parallels what Grayson did, offering citizenship after N years of service. But you can only grow so fast before you compromise said growth. Same for Torch: they said they needed to grow slowly.

Sigs wrote:But Maya is starting far ahead in terms of industry and infrastructure compared to Grayson, also they have more systems and were one of the wealthier sectors. Frontier Security and Frontier Fleet are being disbanded, chances are that Adm. Rozsak and governor Barregos have a contingency plan to bring in disgruntled and reliable FF personnel. Also it is well in the GA’s favour to encourage and assist in the MARSN’s build up, the stronger they are the less the GA has to worry about them, protect them and in fact the less they have to devote to the entire region. Maya could spread to neighbouring sectors as well, a large allied nation that is strong is better then a large weak dependant entity.

All good arguments and you maybe prophetic there. I just think the they don't need to grow to Grayson-like disproportionate size and they won't grow too fast either. Rozak will want to get good people to be his captains and flag officers. He'll need to vet them and actually test them. He'll want to build his own doctrine, not simply import SLN FF doctrine, which he knows beyond a doubt to be a failure.

Sigs wrote:That’s my point, the League has to invest as much as they can in research and development and start building SD(P)’s as quickly as they can. They can build SD(P)’s within 3-5 years, they wont be much better than the SD’s but it will be a step forward and it would give them the tools to start building confidence in themselves and start building doctrine around SD(P)’s and LAC’s. It will also expand their shipbuilding capabilities and give their new yards experience. The League has the money and resources to dump into this project and they most definitely have the motivation to do so as well.

Agreed.

How do you break the tie? I put them face to face confrontation: SD vs SD. The SLN has far more of them, so it's able to soak up damage dished out by the pair of MARSN SD(P)s, which don't have the full technology package from the Manticore and Haven (close, but not quite).

The SLN outnumbers them but they cant get into the Maya sector and they cannot cover every system, a Havenite SD(P) would be 15-20 SLN SD’s worth of firepower. If MARSN has 4 SD(P)’s that is the equivalent of 60 SLN SD’s. As of the end of the War the SLN has 1,500 SD’s and 1,700 member systems that is a lot less then 60 SD’s per system. The MARSN has 1,700 targets while the SLN has .88 SD’s per system. The SLN cant do anything to Maya and the MARSN can do whatever they want as long as they avoid concentrations of 20 SD’s and above to avoid damage, this means that with as little as 6 RHN SD(P)’s the MARSN can disassemble the League because after a few systems most core/shell systems will start making peace individually. Granted this means that Maya will be crushed eventually by an alliance of core/shell worlds or remnant league but they win.

Indeed there are probably a lot of wallers in the Havenite yards, but I'm guessing their first customers will be other GA full members for the foreseeable future, including Manticore. And for the hulls that aren't too far down the line, they may want to stop and incorporate Manticoran technology, especially Keyhole II.

Erewhon and Maya will not buy more then a combined 50 SD(P)’s and that is being quite a bit generous, more likely between Erewhon and Maya they will get 30 SD(P)’s and a handful of CLAC’s. The GA benefits because there is influx of cash, the entire region is more secure and both MARSN and EN can start securing verge systems in their area and securing more protectorates. If that entire region is secure from potential problems with the SLN and/or MA then that’s a win for the GA.

Then there's the question of whether Maya should buy that many wallers. They have only a small core of naval personnel under Adm. Rozak. Your idea of getting FF personnel who finally saw the truth is a good idea. It parallels what Grayson did, offering citizenship after N years of service. But you can only grow so fast before you compromise said growth. Same for Torch: they said they needed to grow slowly.

They have to take risks somewhere, in their place I would much rather have a fleet of 8 SD(P)’s and 4 CLAC’s with some destroyers and CL’s that can use a lot of work to get them up to a certain degree of competence than have 3 SD(P)’s that have well trained crews.

As for Torch? They can growsignificantly but when we are talking about a fleet of essentially 8 hyper capable LAC’s there would be an upper limit where their fleet is concerned. Their navy consists of probably 80-100 members in space, so Torch getting assistance in terms of training staff from the GSN, RHN, RMN and BSDF and the RMN they could set up schools on torch that allows people from Torch and Mesa to join the Torch Navy and expand the navy. With the GA providing the fixed defences the RTN doesn’t need much at the moment, they barely have enough crew to man a Roland so they have no chance when it comes to CA let alone SD(P)’s and they don’t need to, as their heavy defences would be fixed and mobile heavy units would be RHN/GSN/RMN/BSDF.

All good arguments and you maybe prophetic there. I just think the they don't need to grow to Grayson-like disproportionate size and they won't grow too fast either. Rozak will want to get good people to be his captains and flag officers. He'll need to vet them and actually test them. He'll want to build his own doctrine, not simply import SLN FF doctrine, which he knows beyond a doubt to be a failure.

They have been planning this revolt for a long time, I think it’s a safe bet that they have a list of junior and mid level officers that are decent people, reliable and trustworthy people. Those people have just been through a war where they lost thousands of ships, many of them likely FF as I don’t know if Battle Fleet had that many BC’s to begin with. They have been used for decades to commit atrocities, they were used to commit atrocities in the war with the GA and in fact chances are good that they were used in the attacks on Beowulf and Hypatia. Frontier Fleet was used as cannon fodder to top it all of, so I think there would be a hell of a lot of pissed officer and enlisted who would be more then willing to serve with someone they know and Manticore would be more then willing to assist with a few tree cats to vet the new arrivals.

So they can't be building spider-driven SD-sized warships fast. I guess maybe 40 months per ship.

To me the important factor is not how fast they can build them but how many they can build at the same time and how many they have under construction. They will eventually improve the speed, but if they have enough yards to build 100 SD(P)’s in 5 years and they are nearing completion to the first batch they could come as a nasty surprise to the GA.

Sorry, that was never my argument. Of course the SLN will invest to catch up. You're totally right that they don't want to go down on the list any further than they can help it. They will get passed by the BSDF already.

Sorry, I either misunderstood or am mixing up people.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:

Sigs wrote:Legitimate navies are those with DN and above and those that will get DN/SD/BC(P)/BC(L)/SD(P) within a few years. Most of the navies in the honorverse are at best system defence forces at worst a couple of LAC's acting as a coast guard.

Ok, so you're using the same ranking that Theemile did: a first-rate navy is one that has at least one capital ship. There are probably 20-25 with a squadron of those, double that with less than one squadron but at least one hull. Of course, faring against a Saganami-C or Nike, most of those are targets, not a real fighting vessel.

No - according to David and the Books, a 1st rate navy IN the Honorverse is classified as one in the upper 1% of navies - and these ~25 navies all have more than 1 SQUADRON of Wallers.

I didn't rank my list - it was just a list of known members of the 1%