United Provinces devopment

PeterZ wrote:Let's accept your recollection. There should be more than enough sets and peasants who know enough about spinning and weaving to operate powered looms. Charis doesn't have to offer much in the way of training. Sure, working the machines requires training, but translating their prior weaving knowledge into the new powered environment should be easy. That argues to textile prices to drop even further as the UP begins to industrialize and leverage their existing skills.

The existing folks can certainly be trained to operate those powered looms. But first, the powered looms and the textile manufactories to hold them have to exist.

That's certainly possible, but not a near term development. Building that infrastructure takes time, even if you have the money. I think we can assume the Armahk Plan can provide financing, but engineering assistance to build the plants may be required, and the actual powered looms will come from elsewhere. It will be a while before the UP is in position to make their own.

All of what you mention is desirable and likely to occur. The question is how long it will take.
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Dennis

PeterZ wrote:Let's accept your recollection. There should be more than enough sets and peasants who know enough about spinning and weaving to operate powered looms. Charis doesn't have to offer much in the way of training. Sure, working the machines requires training, but translating their prior weaving knowledge into the new powered environment should be easy. That argues to textile prices to drop even further as the UP begins to industrialize and leverage their existing skills.

DMcCunney wrote:The existing folks can certainly be trained to operate those powered looms. But first, the powered looms and the textile manufactories to hold them have to exist.

That's certainly possible, but not a near term development. Building that infrastructure takes time, even if you have the money. I think we can assume the Armahk Plan can provide financing, but engineering assistance to build the plants may be required, and the actual powered looms will come from elsewhere. It will be a while before the UP is in position to make their own.

All of what you mention is desirable and likely to occur. The question is how long it will take.
______
Dennis

I think Harchong is being under estimated. Those folks have NOTHING in their history with respects to their economy, politics, social structure or even their religious hierarchy that they can embrace during this time of change. That means they have very little reason to be conservative about in their effort to create their new nation. They will feel free to try things because whatever that thing replaces will likely not hold any fondness in the hearts of most Harchongese.

Think about that for a moment. With Ahrmahk Plan funds available, those Harchongese will jump in with both feet. The only mitigating factor would have been corrupt officials that would screw them over. Absent that, the serfs and peasants will take chances the people of most other Safehold nations would balk at. Because the worst thing they can lose is money they didn't have to begin with. So, if the Emperor of Charis trust THEM with his money, then perhaps they should trust themselves with the Emperors money. They would do all they could to honor that trust and repay what they could, but they WOULD take those chances.

That said, Harchong becomes a bottomless pit of demand for Charisian industrial production. That is a good thing. That nearly unlimited demand means there is a commercial need beyond war for all the steel Charis can produce. Between the high grade steel rails to non-hardened steel for tools for farms; Harchong will need them all. Aamof, they will need the lower grade steel more than the higher grade because that lower grade is used to more to fuel the broader economy in Harchong.

That massive demand facilitates Cayleb's plan to infuse cash into the UP. The willingness to use those funds by the Harchongese will circulate Cayleb's infusion throughout the UP and North Harchong in general. That leads to Charisians building all sorts of factories in the UP. Affordable steam cars will be first among them. Since steam cars can run on alcohol as well as kerosene or other oil distillates, the need for fuel depots won't be hard manage. Most towns will have access to locally distilled hard liquor. As more steam cars move about, more local distillers will increase their output. Pretty soon oil distillates will come to the fore.

Bottom line is that the Harhcongese will make the Japan's, no Charis', industrialization look placid by comparison.

PeterZ
Yes that does make sense

But it also.means the Anti-Charis Triumverate will realize this....
Which means they absolutely WILL try to derail it.
How though?

SilverbladeTE wrote:PeterZ
Yes that does make sense

But it also.means the Anti-Charis Triumverate will realize this....
Which means they absolutely WILL try to derail it.
How though?

GOOD Question!

The Bad Guy Triumvirate won't recognize the problem in the same way. They'll just see Charis getting richer and richer as a result of the Harchong revolution. They won't recognize that the demand in the UP is independent of whatever Charis can produce. That Charisian sales is a RESULT of that demand. That being the case, the Big, Bad, Three will target the problem in different ways.

South Harchong will send in their military in a Reconquista effort. Control the territory and Charis can't sell bupkis.

Siddermark will try to undercut Charisian prices in the UP as well as trying to sell to both Harchong and Desnair. They'll market towards the anti-Charisian sentiment in those places.

Desnair will support both approaches. I can see Desnairian mercenaries aiding South Harchong. Further, Desnair will sell whatever steam powered weapons platforms they can to South Harchong. Furthermore, Desnair will try to sell anything they can to the UP, East Hachong or whatever other territorial head of state/warlord has the money to buy their goods.

Trying anything else will be laughable.

Assuming that the UP becomes the economic powerhouse in North Harchong, where does that leave East Harchong?

I suspect that East Harchong will form something akin to a confederacy with the UP. They will remain Loyalist and retain some suspicion of Charisian methods and innovations. That would be enough for them to keep their independence from for all practical purposes a Charisian satellite state. That doesn't mean they hate the UP. It does mean they will remain separate.

The UP will see East Harchong as a buffer zone between them and the eastern Haven states. Charis already guards their coastal exposure. That confederacy makes a lot of sense and will speed up pacifying the remainder of Northern Harchong. I can see much of that currently warlord infested morass preferring to join East Harchong over the UP. More will like the UP, especially in those areas that missed the worst of the chaos. The ones that have been through the worst of the chaos would prefer the reputation of the Mighty Horde...er Mighty Host.

So in the next few books, East Harchong will shoulder most fo the fighting and the UP become the protected jewel of productivity in the new confederacy. Give them 5 years to consolidate and whatever chaos the visitation brings with it will shatter against their bulwark. Then it will be time for the confederacy to support what remains of the CoGA.

PeterZ wrote:

DMcCunney wrote:The existing folks can certainly be trained to operate those powered looms. But first, the powered looms and the textile manufactories to hold them have to exist.

That's certainly possible, but not a near term development. Building that infrastructure takes time, even if you have the money. I think we can assume the Armahk Plan can provide financing, but engineering assistance to build the plants may be required, and the actual powered looms will come from elsewhere. It will be a while before the UP is in position to make their own.

All of what you mention is desirable and likely to occur. The question is how long it will take.

I think Harchong is being under estimated. Those folks have NOTHING in their history with respects to their economy, politics, social structure or even their religious hierarchy that they can embrace during this time of change. That means they have very little reason to be conservative about in their effort to create their new nation. They will feel free to try things because whatever that thing replaces will likely not hold any fondness in the hearts of most Harchongese.

Think about that for a moment. With Ahrmahk Plan funds available, those Harchongese will jump in with both feet. The only mitigating factor would have been corrupt officials that would screw them over. Absent that, the serfs and peasants will take chances the people of most other Safehold nations would balk at. Because the worst thing they can lose is money they didn't have to begin with. So, if the Emperor of Charis trust THEM with his money, then perhaps they should trust themselves with the Emperors money. They would do all they could to honor that trust and repay what they could, but they WOULD take those chances.

I concur. I think the Harchongese will have motivation by the dragon load, and fearsome amounts of energy to expend.

My concern is practical. Before you can have the benefits we both foresee, the underlying infrastructure must be created. That cannot happen quickly. They must have tools, and tools to make the tools, and a thousand and one things must exist that aren't there now.

Our disagreement, if we have one, is how fast this can happen. Given the "start from scratch" effort that UP industrialization is, my time frame for a decent start on the process is a couple of decades. The Harchongese can build the structures for the manufactories, with some guidance from Charisian experts on what kind on structures are needed. The equipment installed in the structures that will do the work will be Charisian imports, but a down the road goal will be the ability for the Harchongese to make those things themselves, too.

How quickly do you think this might be done?
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Dennis

Even more problematic than infrastructure, is training the workers, mechanics, overseers, engineers, administrators...etc etc.
Like much of the factories and infrastructure, it cannot be done in one go and will be the work of decades.

See Howsymn's slowly improving his workers etc though the novels with a LOT of hardwork and Owl/SNARCs to route out morons, crooks and ensure quality of build and.tolerances.
Took 8 years for the story arc from Armageddon Reef to Sign of Triumph?

Personally, I see the United Provinces reaching Charis current, that is TFT, quality in about 15 years, with more in a few small areas.
Howysman's folk will help get them a major boost, but the numbers needed and crucially the education needed is colossal.
Teachers of all forms will be amongst them most vital and numerous of folk in UP!

Also 15 years seems good for terms of story
As that's how long until Waisu, Mahris will be worried of old age and DEMAND action, time for Siddarmark to be wrenched into.some ghastly Nazi-like monstrosity, time for the Church of God Awaiting to get wrenched by division and maybe, time for some secret group to have helped make things worse for Charis.

SilverbladeTE wrote:See Howsymn's slowly improving his workers etc though the novels with a LOT of hardwork and Owl/SNARCs to route out morons, crooks and ensure quality of build and.tolerances.
Took 8 years for the story arc from Armageddon Reef to Sign of Triumph?

It was a bit harder for Howysmyn and co. because of the need to create intellectual infrastructure.

One part was reassuring everyone it wasn't violations of the Proscriptions just because it was new. (And Father Paityr was of enormous assistance, even before he got recruited into the IC, because of his bedrock integrity. Everyone on Charis trusted him, because they knew his investigation would be "Does this in fact step over the limits set in the Proscriptions?", and his ruling would be based on whether he thought it did, not by the size of the bribe offered to get a favorable ruling.

(And while not stated, I suspect Charisians felt comfortable in getting an "advisory opinion" from Father Paityr - "This is what we're thinking of doing. Can we proceed, or are we stepping into dangerous waters and need to back off and think of something else before we get into trouble?" I think Paityr would happily provide such advice and not use what they were thinking of doing as a lever to pry bribes out of them.)

Another part was the development of standards, and getting everyone to understand why they had to exist, so "an inch was an inch was an inch" in any manufactory, and actual interchangeable parts were possible. (Remember the bit in an earlier book where one of Earl Thirsk's subordinates demonstrated a rifle made from interchangeable parts? Thirsk was rather taken aback when he realized the implications.)

I was tickled that Grand Vicar Rhobair was happy to accept Bishop Paityr's existing attestations for stuff being rolled out in the Temple Lands be cause he knew about Paityr's piety and integrity. If Paityr said so, he'd sign off on it because he trusted Paityr.

Personally, I see the United Provinces reaching Charis current, that is TFT, quality in about 15 years, with more in a few small areas.

Howysman's folk will help get them a major boost, but the numbers needed and crucially the education needed is colossal.
Teachers of all forms will be amongst them most vital and numerous of folk in UP!

I might guess a bit longer, but there is less underbrush of existing practice to be cleared away in the UP, so you may be right.
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Dennis

I think we forget just where those vaunted Harchong master craftsmen resided antebellum. My recollection is Boiseau. That is one of the oldest provinces and home to most of the master craftsmen. Where there are masters there will be journeymen.given the reputation of those craftsmen, te journeymen will be very highly trained. Their understanding of precise measurement would be instinctive by the time they become journeymen. I'll bet all of the crafts are represented in the UP guilds.

Sure, the masters will be hesitant to change, but journeymen? Not likely. These folks will have been kept dependent on the master craftsmen for their livelihoods has those same masters squeeze as much profit they can from those subordinates before signing off on their masters papers. Those very skilled journeymen would jump at the chance to manage or own those manufactory operations.

As for infrastructure, building plants isn't that time consuming. In terms of supply of natural resources, the output just has to be expanded. There are already sources that most of the craftsmen already use. Employing powered tools and transportation will expand the capacity nicely. Finally, Harchong doesn't have reinvent the wheel with respect to production meathods. They will adopt Charis's best practices. This will likely detract a bit from their own innovation mindset, but it will facilitate getting their industry up and running.

So, if Charis got up and running from scratch in 8 years, Harchong can skip almost all the transition phases and adopt the current generation powered assembly line in 5 years.

DMcCunney
Yeah Paiytr Wilson was.a major help
Often it's social/prejudice etc that in our history blocked some advances very, very foolishly.

Company my Dad worked at was offered quartz clock movement first iirc, they refused, too new fangled according to the bosses, so the company went to the wall...idiots had also refused investment and upgrades so machinery was out of date and robbed the pension fund so all the higher ups were rich and dandy...left my dad with £36 a month of pension after paying in for over 30 years.

Swine also poisoned hell out of the area by ordering workers to burn radium waste, as proof of how much wahoos they were (next to two housing schemes, a primary and a high school and a dairy farm)

So, yeah, good.leadership, acceptance of.need for worthwhile changes, honest oversight for standards and safety make colossal difference!