Next Manticore Ascendant book

ThinksMarkedly wrote:BTW, I wonder if we'll see some retconning of the discovery of the wormhole. The MWHJ is said to have been discovered in 1585 PD, after capturing the databases of invading ships. That's 40 years after the events in ACV.

I don't think David will allow a change to the date of the official discovery. But he may allow the 1544 invasion to be the one where the databases were captured, with no follow-up. The RMN and SIS could go out looking for whoever was behind the Volsungs by covert methods, so they don't want to reveal where they found the information.

Another possibility is that they discover early but the Admiralty and Queen Elizabeth II keep it to themselves while they surveyed the junction in secret and built up the RMN to defend it. HMS Nike (BC-01) was commissioned in 1590, which could be too short for a system that had no shipbuilding activities until the 1540s. (From my understanding, the ships were Havenite designs possibly assembled locally, but some components like the impellers were still sourced from Haven)

I think that could make a lot of sense - here's hoping!

ThinksMarkedly wrote:BTW, I wonder if we'll see some retconning of the discovery of the wormhole. The MWHJ is said to have been discovered in 1585 PD, after capturing the databases of invading ships. That's 40 years after the events in ACV.

I don't think David will allow a change to the date of the official discovery. But he may allow the 1544 invasion to be the one where the databases were captured, with no follow-up. The RMN and SIS could go out looking for whoever was behind the Volsungs by covert methods, so they don't want to reveal where they found the information.

Another possibility is that they discover early but the Admiralty and Queen Elizabeth II keep it to themselves while they surveyed the junction in secret and built up the RMN to defend it. HMS Nike (BC-01) was commissioned in 1590, which could be too short for a system that had no shipbuilding activities until the 1540s. (From my understanding, the ships were Havenite designs possibly assembled locally, but some components like the impellers were still sourced from Haven)

One small point, House of Steel states 1585 PD was the year of the first successful transit of the MWHJ, not it's discovery.

The captured Volsung databases might contain clues to who was behind the invasion, but not even Gensonne knew the reason for Axelrod's interest in Manticore. It could be another 20 T-years before Queen Elizabeth II and the Star Kingdom learned of the possible existence of the Junction and they could spend another 20 locating it, mapping it, calculating its nexus, determining its entry vector, etc.

CaptainPerseus wrote:

ThinksMarkedly wrote:BTW, I wonder if we'll see some retconning of the discovery of the wormhole. The MWHJ is said to have been discovered in 1585 PD, after capturing the databases of invading ships. That's 40 years after the events in ACV.

I don't think David will allow a change to the date of the official discovery. But he may allow the 1544 invasion to be the one where the databases were captured, with no follow-up. The RMN and SIS could go out looking for whoever was behind the Volsungs by covert methods, so they don't want to reveal where they found the information.

Another possibility is that they discover early but the Admiralty and Queen Elizabeth II keep it to themselves while they surveyed the junction in secret and built up the RMN to defend it. HMS Nike (BC-01) was commissioned in 1590, which could be too short for a system that had no shipbuilding activities until the 1540s. (From my understanding, the ships were Havenite designs possibly assembled locally, but some components like the impellers were still sourced from Haven)

One small point, House of Steel states 1585 PD was the year of the first successful transit of the MWHJ, not it's discovery.

The captured Volsung databases might contain clues to who was behind the invasion, but not even Gensonne knew the reason for Axelrod's interest in Manticore. It could be another 20 T-years before Queen Elizabeth II and the Star Kingdom learned of the possible existence of the Junction and they could spend another 20 locating it, mapping it, calculating its nexus, determining its entry vector, etc.

Indeed, but that's one of the scenarios I pointed out above: they actually find out about Axelrod and the WH through covert means, but say that they had found it in the Volsung invasion of 1544, claiming it took long to find the data, then locate the wormhole, before mapping it for transit.

The question is only whether there's a second invasion between 1544 and 1585. Axelrod won't give up, but the RMN is now aware that someone wants something, so those 300k ton BCs are going to be operational. At the same time, is Axelrod going to try the same strategy that has once failed? Or would they go for a different approach?

That's what I meant about hiding the truth of where they found the information.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:BTW, I wonder if we'll see some retconning of the discovery of the wormhole. The MWHJ is said to have been discovered in 1585 PD, after capturing the databases of invading ships. That's 40 years after the events in ACV.

I don't think David will allow a change to the date of the official discovery. But he may allow the 1544 invasion to be the one where the databases were captured, with no follow-up. The RMN and SIS could go out looking for whoever was behind the Volsungs by covert methods, so they don't want to reveal where they found the information.

Another possibility is that they discover early but the Admiralty and Queen Elizabeth II keep it to themselves while they surveyed the junction in secret and built up the RMN to defend it. HMS Nike (BC-01) was commissioned in 1590, which could be too short for a system that had no shipbuilding activities until the 1540s. (From my understanding, the ships were Havenite designs possibly assembled locally, but some components like the impellers were still sourced from Haven)

One small point, House of Steel states 1585 PD was the year of the first successful transit of the MWHJ, not it's discovery.

The captured Volsung databases might contain clues to who was behind the invasion, but not even Gensonne knew the reason for Axelrod's interest in Manticore. It could be another 20 T-years before Queen Elizabeth II and the Star Kingdom learned of the possible existence of the Junction and they could spend another 20 locating it, mapping it, calculating its nexus, determining its entry vector, etc.[/quote]

Indeed, but that's one of the scenarios I pointed out above: they actually find out about Axelrod and the WH through covert means, but say that they had found it in the Volsung invasion of 1544, claiming it took long to find the data, then locate the wormhole, before mapping it for transit.

The question is only whether there's a second invasion between 1544 and 1585. Axelrod won't give up, but the RMN is now aware that someone wants something, so those 300k ton BCs are going to be operational. At the same time, is Axelrod going to try the same strategy that has once failed? Or would they go for a different approach?

That's what I meant about hiding the truth of where they found the information.[/quote]

I doubt it. Without resorting to retconning established canonical history from previous novels, the next direct attack on the Manticore System following the 1544 attack was the Havenite attack in 1920 PD.

I expect Axelrod to begin a covert attempt to conquer the Star Kingdom from within rather than restore to an open invasion. Hence the reported title of the next MA novel. Axelrod will probably attempt to create a coup by manipulating Breakwater and other Opposition peers.

CaptainPerseus wrote:I doubt it. Without resorting to retconning established canonical history from previous novels, the next direct attack on the Manticore System following the 1544 attack was the Havenite attack in 1920 PD.

I expect Axelrod to begin a covert attempt to conquer the Star Kingdom from within rather than restore to an open invasion. Hence the reported title of the next MA novel. Axelrod will probably attempt to create a coup by manipulating Breakwater and other Opposition peers.

There's already a little inconsistency with the Volsung invasion. I read the MA books before the mainline ones, so I paid special attention to the wording during Operation Icarus and the Second Battle of Basilisk. RFC wrote that there had never been a successful invasion of Manticore sovereign territory. But Echoes of Honor was published in 1998, 15 years before "A Call to Arms".

The wording is tricky: the Volsung invasion was not successful. This and the Havenite attack in 1920 being called "First Battle of Manticore" is why I also refer to it as "Volsung invasion" instead of the Wiki title of "Battle of Manticore (1543 PD)". Though to be fair, Operation Beatrice was not a successful invasion of Manticore territory either. Operation Icarus in Basilisk was, since the PRN had undisputed possession of the system for a few hours and could take out the local orbital infrastructure.

This is all to say there can be a second, unsuccessful invasion without retconning established facts.

But I don't think it's likely. I think you're right and the working title of "A Call to Insurrection" is indicative of Axelrod's new strategy. In-universe, Axelrod wouldn't try the same strategy twice: two different invasions by different groups is suspicious to say the least. Out of it, I think it's unlikely David will insert yet another invasion with no character having ever mentioned it.

Which leaves the established canon that the WH was discovered from captured databases. We know that Gensonne had no idea why he was being paid to attack Manticore, the data was not in his databases. And no database was captured during the invasion either, everything came from Casey's and Vergeltung's attack on the HQ. That's why I am thinking the ONI and SIS will discover the existence of the WH through covert means and will hide their activities by saying the data was in captured databases.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:

CaptainPerseus wrote:I doubt it. Without resorting to retconning established canonical history from previous novels, the next direct attack on the Manticore System following the 1544 attack was the Havenite attack in 1920 PD.

I expect Axelrod to begin a covert attempt to conquer the Star Kingdom from within rather than restore to an open invasion. Hence the reported title of the next MA novel. Axelrod will probably attempt to create a coup by manipulating Breakwater and other Opposition peers.

There's already a little inconsistency with the Volsung invasion. I read the MA books before the mainline ones, so I paid special attention to the wording during Operation Icarus and the Second Battle of Basilisk. RFC wrote that there had never been a successful invasion of Manticore sovereign territory. But Echoes of Honor was published in 1998, 15 years before "A Call to Arms".

The wording is tricky: the Volsung invasion was not successful. This and the Havenite attack in 1920 being called "First Battle of Manticore" is why I also refer to it as "Volsung invasion" instead of the Wiki title of "Battle of Manticore (1543 PD)". Though to be fair, Operation Beatrice was not a successful invasion of Manticore territory either. Operation Icarus in Basilisk was, since the PRN had undisputed possession of the system for a few hours and could take out the local orbital infrastructure.

This is all to say there can be a second, unsuccessful invasion without retconning established facts.

But I don't think it's likely. I think you're right and the working title of "A Call to Insurrection" is indicative of Axelrod's new strategy. In-universe, Axelrod wouldn't try the same strategy twice: two different invasions by different groups is suspicious to say the least. Out of it, I think it's unlikely David will insert yet another invasion with no character having ever mentioned it.

Which leaves the established canon that the WH was discovered from captured databases. We know that Gensonne had no idea why he was being paid to attack Manticore, the data was not in his databases. And no database was captured during the invasion either, everything came from Casey's and Vergeltung's attack on the HQ. That's why I am thinking the ONI and SIS will discover the existence of the WH through covert means and will hide their activities by saying the data was in captured databases.

On top of this, there is no mention of a second invasion, battle or war after the Volsungs in the official history of Manticore in the recent House of Steel Compendium. yes, another altercation could be seen as a part of the Volosung raid, but no other major event is mentioned until the Junction discovery. Anything more than piracy or a direct follow-up to the Volsungs should be enough to warrant a major change in the story line

My guess as to why it took so long between the Volsungs and the discovery of the MWHJ is mostly money. Remember the SKM is a modestly prosperous system in a relative backwater area of the explored galaxy. They would have to become a bit more prosperous. Then they would have to buy or lease a research/survey ship from the core which is a six month journey.

saber964 wrote:My guess as to why it took so long between the Volsungs and the discovery of the MWHJ is mostly money. Remember the SKM is a modestly prosperous system in a relative backwater area of the explored galaxy. They would have to become a bit more prosperous. Then they would have to buy or lease a research/survey ship from the core which is a six month journey.

Also at this point, even more so than in 1920s PD, junctions are damned rare. And Manticore's is the biggest and most powerful anyone's ever found.

Even once they manage to get a survey ship out there I wouldn't be surprised at all for it to take years to nail down the initial couple entry vectors well enough to risk a first transit; after all you'd be getting a lot of interference from the interactions of all 7 of the (currently known) wormholes radiating from it.

If Manticore begins to suspect there is a wormhole related to the system and then, after trying some research using it's own military, it probably would contract with an exploration/research company to take over the project. That could be the entry for Axelrod to get back into the game. Prudent planning would have them monitoring companies or ships who do that kind of work and probably already place people inside the orgainzations.
Heck, they could even be operating one of their own at this point and drag their coats under Manticore's nose to improve the chances. Industrial espionage could give them the information if RMN starts buying equipment that would be used to search for wormholes and the front company (Axelrod subsidiary owned through various shell corporations and cut-outs) could be subtly spreading service advertising Manticore's way. What a nice payoff scheme that could be presented to Breakwater and friends to grab that potential major asset while "supporting" the Crown & Navy.
Don't forget we have examples of Trans-StellarsAlignment fermenting revolutions or at least takeovers of planets and using various military forces to do it with naval support. Frontier Fleet isn't the 1st to use this, certainly the attempt by Axelrod using the forces of that Dutchy would count though in that case they would probably have ended up claiming that they had Proof of Manticor's invovement in piracy and attacks against them as justification of their attach against the Manticore home system- and forget to mention the Volsungs as their primary source of ships.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:Given the dates on the previous books
* A Call to Duty (2014)
* A Call to Arms (2016)
* A Call to Insurrection (2018)

2020 seems very likely. The working tile is reported to be "A Call to Insurrection".

Previous thread on the topic: http://davidweber.net/forums/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=9413

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