The "Suez Crisis"

I was just reading up on the Suez crisis. Wikipedia provides a reasonably credible article on the event here.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suez_Crisis

In a nut shell, Great Britain and France conspired with Israel to regain control of the Suez canal. Israel would invade the Sinai peninsula then France and Great Britain would exploit the "crisis" threatening international commerce through the canal as a pretext to seize control of the canal and seperate the belligerants. France and Egypt would then regain control over shipping through the canal while Israel would gain control of the Sinai giving them strategic depth and perhaps usable territory.

Weber has elaborated on the Mesan / Malign conspiracy that incited the Haven wars, but the SL or at least OFS and SLN may have had a conspiracy of their own. Weber has made it clear that the Solarian League had resented the SKM's control over the MWJ and had provided Haven with technological assistance early in the war. May be the SL encouraged and supported Haven as a pretext to seize control over the MWJ?

Rewind to events described in The Short Victorious War. Assume that the opening phases of that war are victories for Haven with even losses. Haven then proceeds to launch an assault against Manticore. The relative naval strengths and probable outcome of such an operation have been explored on other threads. Given Haven victories in TSVW and relatively even loss ratios in the opening battles and a willingness to strip Haven systems of Battleships to support the SDs, it would have been feasible for Haven to defeat the RMN Home fleet if they avoided engaging the fortifications at the MWJ and at Manticore, Sphynx and Griffin.

The result is a stalemate. Given the Havenite Navy's probable losses, it might have been feasible for other RMN forces to retake the system. Alternatively; they could have raided Haven systems that had been stripped of their forces to compel a negotiated withdraw from Manticore.

Enter the SLN, responding to the crisis that threatens the MWJ through which so much commerce flows. The SLN deploys a force of some 500 DNs and SDs as a "peacekeeping force" to seperate the belligerants and impose a peace settlement. Haven will withdraw its forces from the Manticore system but Manticore will cede control over the MWJ to the benevolent management of the SL. Perhaps the SLN will find it necessary to actually engage the fortifications of the MWJ to compel Nanticore's acquiesence. Perhaps the threat of putting Nanticore, Sphynx and Griffen under the benevolent protection of OFS will compell Manticore to stand down.

A plausible end result is that Haven withdraws from the Manticore system, but Manticore is compelledto cede control of the MWJ as the price of retaining some semblance of sovereignty.

If the Peeps crush home fleet the war is over. They can and presumably will deploy an overwhelming amount of force to take of the mobile forces, and will take fairly low losses doing so. It's a high risk strategy, but if you pull it off you have won.

By the time a significant amount of reinforcements can arrive it's two weeks, which is far too long. The Peeps have a lot of ships and can use prox kills to take out the missile pods in the planetary defense system, so they will drive in on Manticore and invite the government to surrender, or else.

Notice how reluctant the RMN was to actually engage a hostile fleet at BoM, because once you start shooting at them they can shoot back.

Even if they simply blow up Home Fleet and then the 3 stations and leave the war is over. That's something like 33% of the mobile forces, 90% of the repair capability, >90% of the capital ship production capability of the MA, and probably >80% of the total production capability. And if they do that the next stops will be the other systems that can produce/repair capital ships.

And you can't just whistle up a SLN fleet. Without months to set it up they will arrive in the Manticore province of the people's republic a few months later.

Trying to attack Haven has the problem that once Manticore falls you are pirates operating without a repair base or logistics chain. Haven is heavily fortified, so you have to accept damage you can't repair to atack them. Then their is the fact that Haven doesn't have any similarly critical system that Mantcire has, they have many planets building capital ships.

If your equating the Suez Crisis with the 1st Havenite War, you missed a few things. One was that Egypt had nationalized the Canal after Nasser gained power in Egypt. The other is that Israel was open to the taking of the Sinai it give it the depth of distance (and a defence line on the Canal) to be a buffer again Egypt.
France wanted the Canal back- French architect, originaly owned the Canal Company under agreement (some say extorted) out of Egypt and England wanted to reopen the canal for it's commerce and military to support both the Home Island and the shorter shipping routs to the East (India etc)
What they expected was that the US was going to stay out of it. Dwight Eisenhower saw this for what it was, a military grab to recover the canal after England had screwed up dealing with Egypt. Not that there was much England might have been able to do right to defuse the situation give the whipping up of Nationalism etc the Nasser represented and all of his programs/policy/politics was centered on kicking Great Britain out of Egypt.

At the start of the 1st Havenite war, this was a typical if vastly larger scenario by Haven to beat down an opponent militarily. Manticore had a MUCH largeer fleet and a lot of allied treaty and trading partners, all of whom were also concerned with Haven's obvious and ongoing expansion by almost any means including military action.
Nobody was "helping" or partnering with Haven. One of the things that Haven was counting on- one presumes- it that the SL was not going to get involved. This was just another minore war between neo-barbs though the Junction was a signifcant prize and should have been considered as something that the SL or at least the merchant shipping of the SL would be concerned about.
With 20-20 hindsight (and ignoring any plot considerations) Haven might have been better served by striking directly at the Manticore Home System with some component directed against the Junction and it's fleet and fortress protection forces. If nothing else, keeping the Junction forces occupied would have prevented them from heading back into the star system and elimiated any reenforcements from the terminus Stations squadrons once word was passed. That would have been either by dispatch boat and/or asking every merchant ship going anywhere to carry messages.
Could Haven have taken Manticore at the opening of the way. Quite possibly. They would have had to send the majority of their fleet directly against the home system with staging somewhere removed from prying eyes but as we have seen that is not such a problem. The problem would be to also bring a fleet train (logistic fleet support) plus occupation troops along with the Attack Fleets and set up a mechanism to bring them forward (any number of options and scenarios) once the attack had begun and hopefully Haven beat it's way to take the oribals of Manticore and force surrender.

That's the problem with that kind of all-or-nothing gambit, if it doesn't work, your screwed.

kzt wrote:If the Peeps crush home fleet the war is over. They can and presumably will deploy an overwhelming amount of force to take of the mobile forces, and will take fairly low losses doing so. It's a high risk strategy, but if you pull it off you have won.

By the time a significant amount of reinforcements can arrive it's two weeks, which is far too long. The Peeps have a lot of ships and can use prox kills to take out the missile pods in the planetary defense system, so they will drive in on Manticore and invite the government to surrender, or else.

Notice how reluctant the RMN was to actually engage a hostile fleet at BoM, because once you start shooting at them they can shoot back.

Even if they simply blow up Home Fleet and then the 3 stations and leave the war is over. That's something like 33% of the mobile forces, 90% of the repair capability, >90% of the capital ship production capability of the MA, and probably >80% of the total production capability. And if they do that the next stops will be the other systems that can produce/repair capital ships.

And you can't just whistle up a SLN fleet. Without months to set it up they will arrive in the Manticore province of the people's republic a few months later.

Trying to attack Haven has the problem that once Manticore falls you are pirates operating without a repair base or logistics chain. Haven is heavily fortified, so you have to accept damage you can't repair to atack them. Then their is the fact that Haven doesn't have any similarly critical system that Mantcire has, they have many planets building capital ships.

I think that you are conflating the battle paradigm of TSVW era when missile pods were just being reintroduced with the combat paradigm of later eras. Combat was still dominated by energy weapons which the forts excelled at. Weber himself has quoted the wet navy axiom, "only a fool fights a fort." It was this reality that dissuaded Churchill from attacking the French fleet at Toulon rater than Mers-el-Kebir and Onan. If Home Fleet can lure an invading fleet into battle within support range of the forts, a stalemate is plausible. Alternatively; a battle in which Haven deploys only SDs and DNs and retains a reserve while attacking Manticore is more likely a stalemate even if the forts are not involved.

I am not going to crunch the numbers or describe a detailed scenario. However; assuming collusion between Haven and the SLN, it would be remotely plausible that an SLN might have a fleet poised to just drop in after an indecisive battle. This is especially true if they peacefully transit from the Beawulf terminus.

I'm pretty sure that if I'm in energy range of the forts at Manticore I'm in energy range of the primary fleet base of the RMN. Somehow I don't think that ends well for the largest fleet base and shipyard of the RMN.

kzt wrote:I'm pretty sure that if I'm in energy range of the forts at Manticore I'm in energy range of the primary fleet base of the RMN. Somehow I don't think that ends well for the largest fleet base and shipyard of the RMN.

The forts were semi-mobile and would probably try to intercept your force short of the planet. So the stations probably would still be in missile range, if not energy range.

The question is, if the forts attack you shy of the orbitals, are the stations (with no offensive systems) really legitimate targets (yet)? Even when in the orbitals, you have to command them, not contest them, to demand a surrender.

Keep in mind that I am presuming a conspiracy between the SLN and Haven. The purpose of an assault by Haven is to provide a pretext for the SLN to seize control of the MWJ. What is the threshold to legitimize an SLN invasion?
Conquest of Manticore?
Destruction of the RMN Home Fleet?
Destruction of the Junction Forts?
An attack of the Junction Forts that inflicts serious losses on the Junction Forts and Home Fleet as well as the Haven attack force and "seriously endangers neutral shipping and galactic commerce through the MWJ"?

My sense is that the last condition would be the desired threshold for both Haven and the SLN. It limits the risks for Haven while enabling a plausible excuse.

Theemile wrote:The question is, if the forts attack you shy of the orbitals, are the stations (with no offensive systems) really legitimate targets (yet)? Even when in the orbitals, you have to command them, not contest them, to demand a surrender.

Your largest naval bases full of combat ships, missile magazines, training centers and command and control facilities are OBVIOUSLY military targets. Probably might want to consider evacuating the few million civilians you decided to have live on your main naval bases.

And no, if the forts are not close to the planets their ability to do anything with energy weapons in nil. Attackers will simply avoid them. You've got about a LS range with grasers vs SDs, and likely about 2 million km range from the SDs to the stations. The fort can maneuver at 50-75s while the SDs can maneuver at 500g.

How many forts do you think they have to oppose the likely 300+ BB+ ships that are going to attack? How many does it take to produce say a 3 million KM radius sphere with no more then 200,000 km range between the forts?

TFLYTSNBN wrote:
Weber himself has quoted the wet navy axiom, "only a fool fights a fort." It was this reality that dissuaded Churchill from attacking the French fleet at Toulon rater than Mers-el-Kebir and Onan.

Oran was a French naval base in North Africa. Onan was a Biblical character known for disobeying the commandment to give his deceased, childless brother children.

Fox2! wrote:

TFLYTSNBN wrote:
Weber himself has quoted the wet navy axiom, "only a fool fights a fort." It was this reality that dissuaded Churchill from attacking the French fleet at Toulon rater than Mers-el-Kebir and Onan.

Oran was a French naval base in North Africa. Onan was a Biblical character known for disobeying the commandment to give his deceased, childless brother children.

Onan was a spoiled spurt?