Opening Phase of Havenite war

TFLYTSNBN wrote:Now everyone is finally understanding the strategic implications of the assasination of King Roger as a prelude to Haven's invasion of Trevor's Star. If the killing of the king hadn't given the fecal brained opposition an excuse to serve up the San Martinos on a Silver platter, the Manticoran alliance would have started the war with enormous "strategic depth" while Haven would have had negative strategic depth. RMN units could have been shifted from defense to offense to defense in mere hours. All of those worthless star systems that became fleet bases that required mobile units as well as fixed defenses would not have been needed. The RMN could have just sallied forth to sack a peep second echelon system then get back home well before any attack exploiting the diversion of ships from Manticore could be assembled. The batleships that were Haven's huge, strategic reserve would have been the primary targets along with any industrial assets that could be taken out without engaging serious fixed defenses. Transit, sack and atrit, transit, repeat as neccessary until Haven implodes.

Plus Manticore would have the support of whatever of the San Martin navy that survived. Ofsetting then they wouldn't have the Erewhonese battle squadrons. (Talbot, the system not the quadrent, was probably neutral at best since we never heard of their SDs deployed anywhere but Erewhon had enough wallers to cover home defense and send some to join the RMN in operations in other systems early in the war).

However I'm not sure that retaining Trevor's Star offsets the 17 fewer years to build up RMN forces or work on Project Gram's R&D.

And if the main war had kicked off keeping Haven from grabbing Trevor's Star then Manticore probably never would have reached out to Grayson. That'd have massive implications on all its own. Their other allies (except to some extent Erewhon and maybe Talbot was breakeven to mildly helpful) seemed to be net resource drains, only helpful in that Haven spread their forces around because of them, so never forming that alliance might not have hurt. But not having Grayson and their wildly outsized contribution seems like it'd be a problem -- especially with a smaller and lower tech RMN.

Jonathan_S wrote:

TFLYTSNBN wrote:Now everyone is finally understanding the strategic implications of the assasination of King Roger as a prelude to Haven's invasion of Trevor's Star. If the killing of the king hadn't given the fecal brained opposition an excuse to serve up the San Martinos on a Silver platter, the Manticoran alliance would have started the war with enormous "strategic depth" while Haven would have had negative strategic depth. RMN units could have been shifted from defense to offense to defense in mere hours. All of those worthless star systems that became fleet bases that required mobile units as well as fixed defenses would not have been needed. The RMN could have just sallied forth to sack a peep second echelon system then get back home well before any attack exploiting the diversion of ships from Manticore could be assembled. The batleships that were Haven's huge, strategic reserve would have been the primary targets along with any industrial assets that could be taken out without engaging serious fixed defenses. Transit, sack and atrit, transit, repeat as neccessary until Haven implodes.

Plus Manticore would have the support of whatever of the San Martin navy that survived. Ofsetting then they wouldn't have the Erewhonese battle squadrons. (Talbot, the system not the quadrent, was probably neutral at best since we never heard of their SDs deployed anywhere but Erewhon had enough wallers to cover home defense and send some to join the RMN in operations in other systems early in the war).

However I'm not sure that retaining Trevor's Star offsets the 17 fewer years to build up RMN forces or work on Project Gram's R&D.

And if the main war had kicked off keeping Haven from grabbing Trevor's Star then Manticore probably never would have reached out to Grayson. That'd have massive implications on all its own. Their other allies (except to some extent Erewhon and maybe Talbot was breakeven to mildly helpful) seemed to be net resource drains, only helpful in that Haven spread their forces around because of them, so never forming that alliance might not have hurt. But not having Grayson and their wildly outsized contribution seems like it'd be a problem -- especially with a smaller and lower tech RMN.

We know Manticore had no more than 35 SDs and 65 DNs at the time the Peeps invaded San Martin thanks to HoS. We don't have much information about the composition of the PRN at that time. Probably ~400 BBs, possibly ~50 DNs and ~50 SDs.

How much longer until the second companion book is ready?

Jonathan_S wrote:

TFLYTSNBN wrote:Now everyone is finally understanding the strategic implications of the assasination of King Roger as a prelude to Haven's invasion of Trevor's Star. If the killing of the king hadn't given the fecal brained opposition an excuse to serve up the San Martinos on a Silver platter, the Manticoran alliance would have started the war with enormous "strategic depth" while Haven would have had negative strategic depth. RMN units could have been shifted from defense to offense to defense in mere hours. All of those worthless star systems that became fleet bases that required mobile units as well as fixed defenses would not have been needed. The RMN could have just sallied forth to sack a peep second echelon system then get back home well before any attack exploiting the diversion of ships from Manticore could be assembled. The batleships that were Haven's huge, strategic reserve would have been the primary targets along with any industrial assets that could be taken out without engaging serious fixed defenses. Transit, sack and atrit, transit, repeat as neccessary until Haven implodes.

Plus Manticore would have the support of whatever of the San Martin navy that survived. Ofsetting then they wouldn't have the Erewhonese battle squadrons. (Talbot, the system not the quadrent, was probably neutral at best since we never heard of their SDs deployed anywhere but Erewhon had enough wallers to cover home defense and send some to join the RMN in operations in other systems early in the war).

However I'm not sure that retaining Trevor's Star offsets the 17 fewer years to build up RMN forces or work on Project Gram's R&D.

And if the main war had kicked off keeping Haven from grabbing Trevor's Star then Manticore probably never would have reached out to Grayson. That'd have massive implications on all its own. Their other allies (except to some extent Erewhon and maybe Talbot was breakeven to mildly helpful) seemed to be net resource drains, only helpful in that Haven spread their forces around because of them, so never forming that alliance might not have hurt. But not having Grayson and their wildly outsized contribution seems like it'd be a problem -- especially with a smaller and lower tech RMN.

My impression is that the consumation of a San Martin / Manticore alliance would have temporarily deterred Haven from attacking Trevor's Star. San Martin, Manticore and Haven as well as any possible Manticoran allies including Erewhon would have then had time to build up their forces. However; the invasion of San Martin and subsequent brutal occupation inspired much of the prewar buildup.

Jonathan_S wrote:

TFLYTSNBN wrote:Now everyone is finally understanding the strategic implications of the assasination of King Roger as a prelude to Haven's invasion of Trevor's Star. If the killing of the king hadn't given the fecal brained opposition an excuse to serve up the San Martinos on a Silver platter, the Manticoran alliance would have started the war with enormous "strategic depth" while Haven would have had negative strategic depth. RMN units could have been shifted from defense to offense to defense in mere hours. All of those worthless star systems that became fleet bases that required mobile units as well as fixed defenses would not have been needed. The RMN could have just sallied forth to sack a peep second echelon system then get back home well before any attack exploiting the diversion of ships from Manticore could be assembled. The batleships that were Haven's huge, strategic reserve would have been the primary targets along with any industrial assets that could be taken out without engaging serious fixed defenses. Transit, sack and atrit, transit, repeat as neccessary until Haven implodes.

Plus Manticore would have the support of whatever of the San Martin navy that survived. Ofsetting then they wouldn't have the Erewhonese battle squadrons. (Talbot, the system not the quadrent, was probably neutral at best since we never heard of their SDs deployed anywhere but Erewhon had enough wallers to cover home defense and send some to join the RMN in operations in other systems early in the war).

However I'm not sure that retaining Trevor's Star offsets the 17 fewer years to build up RMN forces or work on Project Gram's R&D.

And if the main war had kicked off keeping Haven from grabbing Trevor's Star then Manticore probably never would have reached out to Grayson. That'd have massive implications on all its own. Their other allies (except to some extent Erewhon and maybe Talbot was breakeven to mildly helpful) seemed to be net resource drains, only helpful in that Haven spread their forces around because of them, so never forming that alliance might not have hurt. But not having Grayson and their wildly outsized contribution seems like it'd be a problem -- especially with a smaller and lower tech RMN.

Actually FLY, I have to thank you for making these points. I missed it, though I've always been attuned to the strategic importance of Trevor's Star. At any rate, love the post.

One of my friends asked me about Strategic Reach. Strategic Reach is important as it allows the goal of achieving strategic depth by removing many of the stubborn obstacles, a common one being politics. Strategic Reach includes Strategic Depth, more or less. Or more succinctly helps guarantee it. To better understand the concepts, one only has to turn to and study the current politics of Russia/US relations in the Arctic. Putin and the US are presently involved in a pissing contest over rights in the Arctic and the implications of Russian expansion in the area.

Strategic Reach is the precursor to Strategic Depth. In a nutshell, strategic reach is strategic depth + (All your little legal ducks and foreign policy lined up in a row. It's allowing one to strive for the end game of strategic depth without being hamstrung by foreign policy, treaties and agreements. It's winning the political war against the restraints of NATO. In a nutshell, a winning Politics hand. Allowing Russia to complete its endgame in the Arctic gives it inherent rights militarily to the region in the future. An inherent excuse, mind you, to establish more bases. Sneaky!, looking several moves ahead of the annoying entity that is NATO.

See the similarities between Murmansk and Trevor's Star?

From a Manticoran perspective, seizing Trevor's Star gives the Manticorans strategic reach - being able to maneuver and mobilize in the area without having to seek approval from Parliament. RMN operations in the area would then fall under the umbrella of natural strategic responsibility incurred by the position (Bases).

Strategic Reach = Strategic Depth + Politics, though not necessarily vice versa, yet.

Jonathan, personally, I'd jump the other way. Retaining Trevor's Star gives the RMN an inside straight with the MWJ. You are still downplaying the strategic advantages afforded by having the MWJ and sorely missing the implications of locking down the Trevor's Star end. By the SKM dealing itself an Inside Straight, Trevor's Star would have given Manticore strategic depth, advantage of interior lines of defense, logistics and communication. All of the advantages I've called attention to upstream, along with Strategic Reach. Acquiring Trevor's Star would have taken the politics out of a significant aspect of capitalizing on said position by removing the Opposition segment of government from the equation.

With Strategic Reach under their belt by already owning Trevor's Star the Manties are legally allowed to capitalize on its overwhelming strategic position. With a permanent leg up in mobility and initiative the RMN would have been less stressed with time and resources, being better able to cover its obligations. Adding Trevor's Star to its trophy case would have positively affected most everything on the SKM side and by association, negatively for the Peeps. E.g., remember that trick the Peeps pulled by setting Harrington up? An inside straight would have made it virtually impossible for the Peeps to guess where she'd hit, having virtually unlimited access to almost any system from the fortified position of Trevor's Star. Honor would have had a field day operating out of Trevor's Star with Cutworm. It would have been very easy to spread the Havenite's thin and difficult for the Havenites to return the favor. Trevor's Star represents a force multiplier on its own. And, well, Haven's plan of a SVW against an inside straight? No way! An Inside Straight infused with the same tech along the way would have systematically destroyed the Havenites. The strategic foothold of Manticore owning all significant ends of the junction would have spelled imminent doom for the Peeps, having allowed Manticore unfathomable position alone. Let alone in conjunction with Project Gram. It would have been like playing wackamole with the Peeps.

See them peep-ing their HEADS up??? Child's play from such a position.

Just the invention of LACs alone, with an inside straight, would have spelled D O O M for the Peeps.

The notion of acquiring Grayson had they locked up Trevor's Star in the opening phase of the war is interesting though. I'd like to think they still would have acquired Grayson as an ally, if only because the Graysons saw the writing on the wall. Protector Benjamin saw the Obese Gorilla coming, and he really didn't want to ally itself with Haven.

And I can only imagine how Honor's exploits and Manticore's good guy rep would have taken a huge shot in the arm enjoying the strategic advantages throughout its campaign. Ironically, with an inside straight, it could have become a very short victorious war, for the Manties!!! In fact, the Fat Lady would have retired long before Bolthole. IMO.

Additional Reading:
NATO and Strategic Reach.


P.S. Most generals and admirals play chess for a reason.

cthia wrote:From a Manticoran perspective, seizing Trevor's Star gives the Manticorans strategic reach - being able to maneuver and mobilize in the area without having to seek approval from Parliament. RMN operations in the area would then fall under the umbrella of natural strategic responsibility incurred by the position (Bases).

Strategic Reach = Strategic Depth + Politics, though not necessarily vice versa, yet.

Jonathan, personally, I'd jump the other way. Retaining Trevor's Star gives the RMN an inside straight with the MWJ. You are still downplaying the strategic advantages afforded by having the MWJ and sorely missing the implications of locking down the Trevor's Star end. By the SKM dealing itself an Inside Straight, Trevor's Star would have given Manticore strategic depth, advantage of interior lines of defense, logistics and communication. All of the advantages I've called attention to upstream, along with Strategic Reach. Acquiring Trevor's Star would have taken the politics out of a significant aspect of capitalizing on said position by removing the Opposition segment of government from the equation.

With Strategic Reach under their belt by already owning Trevor's Star the Manties are legally allowed to capitalize on its overwhelming strategic position. With a permanent leg up in mobility and initiative the RMN would have been less stressed with time and resources, being better able to cover its obligations. Adding Trevor's Star to its trophy case would have positively affected most everything on the SKM side and by association, negatively for the Peeps. E.g., remember that trick the Peeps pulled by setting Harrington up? An inside straight would have made it virtually impossible for the Peeps to guess where she'd hit, having virtually unlimited access to almost any system from the fortified position of Trevor's Star. Honor would have had a field day operating out of Trevor's Star with Cutworm. It would have been very easy to spread the Havenite's thin and difficult for the Havenites to return the favor. Trevor's Star represents a force multiplier on its own. And, well, Haven's plan of a SVW against an inside straight? No way! An Inside Straight infused with the same tech along the way would have systematically destroyed the Havenites. The strategic foothold of Manticore owning all significant ends of the junction would have spelled imminent doom for the Peeps, having allowed Manticore unfathomable position alone. Let alone in conjunction with Project Gram. It would have been like playing wackamole with the Peeps.

Couple things. If Manticore had been able to support San Martin and deter Haven from grabbing it they wouldn't "own" it, nor would it likely be part of the Manticoran kingdom. It would just be a ally, albeit one that's has especially low transit time from Manticore and an astrologically advantageous position for them. It just doesn't seem plausible that people as stubborn as the San Martins are known to be would voluntarily give up their government and self-rule just because a neighbor helped scare off a potential invader.

And given that I don't see how that removes the Opposition segment of government from the equation. Without bringing San Martin into the Star Kingdom you don't get the peers that reduce the Opposition's power in Lords. And even if Haven backs down this time I don't think the Opposition is going to give up their fear of provoking them.

And while the Admiralty can justify deploying RMN forces to an allied system those forces aren't free of Parliament's constitutionally mandated oversight of the military - and deploying them offensively would still require a declaration of war; the very thing that ended up delaying most of Manticore's counterattacks once combat did start. The opposition was willing to seize the excuse of the coup to hold the war hostage until the Queen and Prime Minister met their demands.

As for using Trevor's Star as an offensive base for Cutworm -- well that's exactly what Honor did in the 2nd war. Which didn't stop Haven from eventually guessing correctly about one of her raid targets and springing a trap.


But what all the talk about strategic reach didn't touch on was the combat power unbalance that existed at the time. Manticore probably would have been in a better position if they detered Haven't attempt to grab San Martin and the war had held off for 17 years; so it still started in 1905 PD as it historically did. But if Haven had decided that Manticore's alliance wasn't enough to make them rethink attacking San Martin -- well, they appeared to have the force to still crush San Martin even with some RMN battle squadrons in support. IIRC Manticore's has about half as many SDs and DNs as they did by 1905 PD, yet Haven has something like 80-85% as many.

And then unless they took really shockingly heavy losses (remember this even even before towed pods were reintroduced - so Manticore doesn't have much tech edge, nor many tricks up its sleeve) Manticore then has no strategic depth left and Haven's forces (less what they leave to secure San Martin) can after a delay to refit and repair advance straight to Manticore. As far as we know Haven already had the advance bases in places like Barnett and Seaford 9 to support a lunge towards Manticore. It was Manticore than needed the 17 years to build up their fleet, find allies, and set up advance bases to convince Haven to fight system to system.

That probably doesn't go well for Manticore (unless they can pull kzt's last-ditch diplomatic sacrifice maneuver and put themselves under the League's protection)

cthia wrote:The notion of acquiring Grayson had they locked up Trevor's Star in the opening phase of the war is interesting though. I'd like to think they still would have acquired Grayson as an ally, if only because the Graysons saw the writing on the wall. Protector Benjamin saw the Obese Gorilla coming, and he really didn't want to ally itself with Haven.

Maybe, but Grayson and Masada would now be well behind the front lines (at least as long as Manticore and San Martin could hold Trevor's Star. Without their strategically critical position (or at least what was perceived as one for the war both sides expected to fight) I'm not sure they'd have much luck attracting Manticoran attention and initial industrial investment.

And if the war kicked off then; well I don't see it lasting long enough to invest in Grayson, much less have those investments pay off.

Jonathan_S wrote:
That probably doesn't go well for Manticore (unless they can pull kzt's last-ditch diplomatic sacrifice maneuver and put themselves under the League's protection)

It’s a very expensive trick. But sometimes you have so bad things.

Silverwall wrote:
Sorry but this reeks of the classic armchair admiral "Why don't they just..." thinking. In a real situation it is never possible to do this for logistical, training and political reasons.

I would also like to point out two real life situations where a navy tried deploying massive force beyond their effective deployment range against capable defending force. Specifically the Russians at Tsushima and the Spanish armarda. Tsushima is probably a better example as the Russian ships were technically on par with the Japanese ones but the ships were broken down after their long journey and the crews were exhausted by the voyage allowing a smaller force capably led to crush them.

It is very clear from the early books that the deployment range of fleets of capital ships before these effects kick in are low at the start of the Narrative which is the context we are talking about.

How many systems are there in alliance space with absolutely nothing of interest in them? Maybe a star with some lifeless planets that no-one wants? And think could the Alliance scout each and everyone of them on a continuous basis? Haven knew that they were going to war with the SKM at some point, and many in the SKM knew they were going to be at war with Haven at some point, why didn't Haven set up bases in alliance space ahead of time? Doesn't have to be elaborate, just enough to resupply the ships and rest the crews for a bit.


Set those bases south east of Manticore and don't concentrate your fleet until you are ready, there is no way Manticore and their 1600 ship RMN can guard the Home System, all the Alliance members, the bases facing Havenite space, patrol Silesia and still scout potentially hundreds or thousands of uninhabited systems around Manticore.

pnakasone wrote:We have to take into account that politics will always raise its ugly head. An all or nothing attack may have been the most sensible military strategy the politicians wanted a plan that they could pull their hand back in case things went pear shaped. No one sensible in politics wants the only option if attack fails is surrendering.

Problem is that there was no going back from Hancock and Yeltsin, if the coup had not happened I doubt that Haven would have been able to walk anything back. The argument around declaring war against Haven happened because the coup let some grasp to a straw that the new leadership might want peace, no coup = no such straw to grab on to.

tlb wrote:How exactly do the Peeps know this? They have knowledge of the fight in OBS and the big one in HOTQ, but that last one involved a Masadan crew - not its trained professionals. In both battles the smaller RMN vessel won, but only the first one requires an explanation. There is a term in psychology for unsupported confidence among people who lack essential knowledge, arising because they are unaware of the extent to which they are ignorant.

Haven had to know that Manticore was not producing warships at it's full potential. There is significant difference between enhanced peacetime construction of warships and wartime construction of war ships. If haven didn't know that Manticore was not producing warships at war time speeds then Haven deserves to lose.

Sigs wrote:
Problem is that there was no going back from Hancock and Yeltsin, if the coup had not happened I doubt that Haven would have been able to walk anything back. The argument around declaring war against Haven happened because the coup let some grasp to a straw that the new leadership might want peace, no coup = no such straw to grab on to.

The coup did cause a major headache as it gave the opposition a straw to grasp. Then you add the court marshal of Young for the conservatives.