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Opening Phase of Havenite war

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Re: Opening Phase of Havenite war
Post by tlb   » Thu Mar 07, 2019 8:19 pm

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kzt wrote:Haven has it's own very extensive system defenses and forts. It's not a fun target for an SDM era force to attack.

Do you agree with Silverwall that this was also true for Manticore?
Silverwall wrote: Haven planners know how well fortified Manticore is with fixed defenses. Planetary fortifications at this time have real value and the Octogon gives the Manticore fixed defenses a value of 100 wall equivalent based on the descriptions in text. They also won't try to c-fraction bombard the defenses in case I get an accidental eridani strike and piss of the 900lb gorilla that is the Sollies. Therefore they must plan to fight both fixed defenses and the Manty home fleet at the same time.
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Re: Opening Phase of Havenite war
Post by munroburton   » Thu Mar 07, 2019 8:54 pm

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Silverwall wrote:I decided to actually try to think like the Octogon planners and used the numbers from SVW and the known deployments from the start of that book to try and estimate how many ships of the wall haven could free up for this hypothetical strike while keeping the strategic understanding that the planners would have.

Short version the havenite fleet wasn't big enough to cover critical defence commitments and mass a big enough fleet to first strike Manticore. The massive size of Haven really hurts them here.

Assumptions.
1) Haven planners do not know of towed pods but do know they are slightly inferior on a ship for ship basis

2) Haven planners know how well fortified Manticore is with fixed defenses. Planetary fortifications at this time have real value and the Octogon gives the Manticore fixed defenses a value of 100 wall equivalent based on the descriptions in text. They also won't try to c-fraction bombard the defenses in case I get an accidental eridani strike and piss of the 900lb gorilla that is the Sollies. Therefore they must plan to fight both fixed defenses and the Manty home fleet at the same time.

3) they must leave sufficient forces to at least slow down and manage any Manty nodal forces making spoiling/revenge attacks.

4) Haven Knows that BBs are worthless in a fleet major engagement and only uses them for rear area defence. Text evidence from 4th yeltsin and later in the war shows this to be true.


Total Opposing wallers as per the appendix in SVW
Haven: 460
Manticore: 301

Fleet deductions from both totals:
1) because of increased tensions both sides know somthing is up and have made a major effort to clear the refit/repair lists and have managed a frankly outstanding feet of each side only having 10% of wallers currently unavailable in the yards. Normally this number is about 25%

Haven: 414
Manticore: 270

2) Manticore has nodal fleets at Hancock, Grendlesbane and Yeltsins star + misc other deployed forces which in SVW add up to about 100 wallers.

Haven: 414
Manticore: 170

3) it is strategically vital haven maintian a strong capital fleet for home defence and if it gets reduced too much all strategic supprise is lost, the Manties will notice if they all go off somewhere. Haven maintains a 100 waller capital fleet.

Haven 314
Manticore: 170

4) Haven must maintian some forces at the border nodes and fleet bases of Barnett, Trevors star, Seabring, Treadway/Solway to prevend manty nodal forces running amok if things go sideways. total of 8 squadrons or 64 wallers

Haven: 250
Manticore: 170

5) Haven is big and even using BBs for most rear area security you have 5 other systems that are important enough for political/strategic/economic reasons to have 1 squadron of wallers which can also act as deep nodal defence forces. - 40 wallers

Final rough tally for the proposed first strike battle of Manticore

Haven: 210 wallers
Manticore: 170 wallers + massive fixed fortifications.

If I am the Havenite admiralty this is well short of the 270 wall equivalent force I see sitting in Manticore like a giant trapdoor spider.

NOTE: given the strategic/political understanding of warfare at the time I cannot justify reducing my other defensive commitments by enough to give me a 1-1 equality in wallers that would make a matched fight agains 170 manty wallers + fixed defenses.

NOTE 2: This is calculated using Havens flawed understanding of how much of an edge Manticore has in terms of Technology and crew capability. As shown in the later story Haven was well behind where it needs to be in this area so in fact needs approx an extra 20% numbers just to match a Manty force so the 270 wallers for a 1-1 fight the Octogon calculates would in fact need to be 324 wallers for a matched equavalent forces fight.


It's obvious from this that Haven would have had to strip almost every battleship they had covering their rear areas and add them to the 200-300 wallers they could risk attacking Manticore with.

4) Haven Knows that BBs are worthless in a fleet major engagement and only uses them for rear area defence. Text evidence from 4th yeltsin and later in the war shows this to be true.


Although Fourth Yeltsin was apocalyptic for BBs, that's largely because they did the worst possible thing a BB could do - charging at SDs. In the off-screen fighting prior to Trevor's Star, BBs(and BCs) didn't do so terribly against dreadnoughts, forcing a tactical withdrawal at least once.

Worthless only in energy range engagements(which to be fair, was thought to be the decisive range). Two or three hundred battleships, as long as they stay out of energy range, adds considerable missile firepower as well as thickening a fleet's anti-missile capabilities.

But the lid could come off whatever threat those battleships were supposedly suppressing. I don't know why they needed battleships when OFS managed with light and battle cruisers.
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Re: Opening Phase of Havenite war
Post by kzt   » Thu Mar 07, 2019 8:59 pm

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tlb wrote:
kzt wrote:Haven has it's own very extensive system defenses and forts. It's not a fun target for an SDM era force to attack.

Do you agree with Silverwall that this was also true for Manticore?

I have no idea. Manticoran fixed defenses seems to wander around a bit. It's mentioned that the RMN was upset about fortress around Basilisk as they didn't build fixed defenses, then it was suggested there were forts around the planets. There has never been any depiction of an orbital fort around the 3 primary Manticoran planets, we know the names of some of the multiple forts around Haven.

All that really seems to exist around Manticore are fields of missile pods. Which is suggested in a passing comment are not deployed in peacetime.

Later it is obliquely suggested fortresses exist, but the fact that the command center for defenses was on the orbital platform instead of a fort suggests there are none. The fact that after the OB attack there was no activity noted from the forts around Manticore suggests to me that there are no forts around Manticore.

You'd think they would be launching LACS and using grasers and/or CMs to blow up the falling debris, but NOTHING. So my guess is there are none.

So I don't know.
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Re: Opening Phase of Havenite war
Post by Jonathan_S   » Thu Mar 07, 2019 9:38 pm

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munroburton wrote:Although Fourth Yeltsin was apocalyptic for BBs, that's largely because they did the worst possible thing a BB could do - charging at SDs. In the off-screen fighting prior to Trevor's Star, BBs(and BCs) didn't do so terribly against dreadnoughts, forcing a tactical withdrawal at least once.

Worthless only in energy range engagements(which to be fair, was thought to be the decisive range). Two or three hundred battleships, as long as they stay out of energy range, adds considerable missile firepower as well as thickening a fleet's anti-missile capabilities.
Though battleships are of an even older design era than Haven's pre-war SDs. The Triumphant-class dates back to 1823 - over 40 years before the "first complete laser-head-armed impeller-drive anti-ship missile system" [IFF]. Though even so, their missile focus (and likely refits) gave them a quite generous (for the era) counter-missile fit, and while their PDLCs fix is light compared to even slightly newer DNs they're much heavier CM fit/ton actually gives them a more modern ratio; leaning more heavily on long range CM interceptions. Even ignoring 4th Yelsin when BBs were forced to fight wallers during the war it turned out that an equal mass of BBs would be handled quite roughly by RMN SDs. So when rounding up the obsolescent units you need to discount their usefulness by more than just the ratio of tonnage.


Also Haven had those old BBs on rear security as much to keep their restive systems in line as to deter or beat off RMN BC raids. I don't know that President Harris would be willing to risk those systems rebelling by pulling his iron fist to throw at Manticore... (Though by some ruthlessly logical arguments he probably should have - with Manticore captured he could afford to recapture and subdue his restive systems almost at his leisure. And if he's failed to capture Manticore after an all or nothing attempt systems breaking away would be the least of his problems)

And if you want to do this with minimal notice to Manticore things get even trickier. You could dispatch orders that caused every scattered unit that would make up the assault force to head directly to a convenient unoccupied system on the way to Manticore. With the strike leaving as soon as they all nearly simultaneously met up there. That wouldn't leave enough time for useful warning to reach Manticore. But we've also seen that without time to forces to drill together they're far less effective that they should be. So if you want to strip the defenses of most of Haven's systems to make an overwhelming strike force you probably have to give at least several weeks for them to train together before you can launch the attack. That gives time for Manticore to notice and attempt to change their deployments in reaction.
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Re: Opening Phase of Havenite war
Post by tlb   » Thu Mar 07, 2019 10:14 pm

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kzt wrote:Haven has it's own very extensive system defenses and forts. It's not a fun target for an SDM era force to attack.

tlb wrote:Do you agree with Silverwall that this was also true for Manticore?

kzt wrote:I have no idea. Manticoran fixed defenses seems to wander around a bit. It's mentioned that the RMN was upset about fortress around Basilisk as they didn't build fixed defenses, then it was suggested there were forts around the planets. There has never been any depiction of an orbital fort around the 3 primary Manticoran planets, we know the names of some of the multiple forts around Haven.

All that really seems to exist around Manticore are fields of missile pods. Which is suggested in a passing comment are not deployed in peacetime.

Later it is obliquely suggested fortresses exist, but the fact that the command center for defenses was on the orbital platform instead of a fort suggests there are none. The fact that after the OB attack there was no activity noted from the forts around Manticore suggests to me that there are no forts around Manticore.

You'd think they would be launching LACS and using grasers and/or CMs to blow up the falling debris, but NOTHING. So my guess is there are none.

So I don't know.

Same here. But the lack of forts during Oyster Bay, is not really evidence one way or another. The sort of forts, that hypothetically would defend the planets during SVW, would be badly obsolescent in the era of Apollo. So when forts were being retired to free manpower, any early planet defensive ones would go also. So that is evidence that if they existed, then they were not replaced.

It makes sense that in the age of Apollo the various types of Super Dreadnoughts would replace any perceived need for planetary forts, because they afford a much more flexible response to an attack. Plus Mycroft, with system defense pods, should provide a last ditch defense (if the silver bullet problem can be solved).

PS. Stealing underwear can yield short term profits, if you can sell them for more than the cost of the theft. The problem is the long term prospect of prison for penny ante robbery.
Last edited by tlb on Thu Mar 07, 2019 10:26 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Opening Phase of Havenite war
Post by Silverwall   » Thu Mar 07, 2019 10:21 pm

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kzt wrote:I have no idea. Manticoran fixed defenses seems to wander around a bit. It's mentioned that the RMN was upset about fortress around Basilisk as they didn't build fixed defenses, then it was suggested there were forts around the planets. There has never been any depiction of an orbital fort around the 3 primary Manticoran planets, we know the names of some of the multiple forts around Haven.

All that really seems to exist around Manticore are fields of missile pods. Which is suggested in a passing comment are not deployed in peacetime.

Later it is obliquely suggested fortresses exist, but the fact that the command center for defenses was on the orbital platform instead of a fort suggests there are none. The fact that after the OB attack there was no activity noted from the forts around Manticore suggests to me that there are no forts around Manticore.

You'd think they would be launching LACS and using grasers and/or CMs to blow up the falling debris, but NOTHING. So my guess is there are none.

So I don't know.


By this time the podnought revolution had dramatically reduced the value of fixed fortifications so many/most of them were scrapped by the time of oyster bay. I would observe that you keep supporting your arguments with technology and doctorine that was not even thought of 20 years earlier at the start of these wars.

Even if they did have them the suprise there was total and forts would not have been able to get online in time and by the time they were most of the debris was able to be snagged using less extreme measures. The actual strike of oyster bay was less than 10 minutes and defensed that close to the planets were designed with at least a few hours of spin up time available.
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Re: Opening Phase of Havenite war
Post by tlb   » Thu Mar 07, 2019 10:25 pm

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Silverwall wrote:Even if they did have them the suprise there was total and forts would not have been able to get online in time and by the time they were most of the debris was able to be snagged using less extreme measures. The actual strike of oyster bay was less than 10 minutes and defensed that close to the planets were designed with at least a few hours of spin up time available.

I believe forts, by their nature, are always online; precisely because if you needed to make the investment in a fort, then you cannot afford it to miss its moment on stage. But I understand that you would expect some advance warning.
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Re: Opening Phase of Havenite war
Post by Silverwall   » Thu Mar 07, 2019 10:36 pm

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tlb wrote:
Silverwall wrote:Even if they did have them the suprise there was total and forts would not have been able to get online in time and by the time they were most of the debris was able to be snagged using less extreme measures. The actual strike of oyster bay was less than 10 minutes and defensed that close to the planets were designed with at least a few hours of spin up time available.

I believe forts, by their nature, are always online; precisely because if you needed to make the investment in a fort, then you cannot afford it to miss its moment on stage. But I understand that you would expect some advance warning.


Only junction forts need to perminatnly online planitary forts pre spider drive would always have some warning unless they were in a system so primative and impverished to have no detection system. Even Pre alliance Grayson was able to build an effective detection system.

I also believe most of the immediate online defenses were actually stationed on the massive orbital stations that were the first target of the Oyster bay strike.
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Re: Opening Phase of Havenite war
Post by tlb   » Thu Mar 07, 2019 10:49 pm

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Silverwall wrote:Even if they did have them the suprise there was total and forts would not have been able to get online in time and by the time they were most of the debris was able to be snagged using less extreme measures. The actual strike of oyster bay was less than 10 minutes and defensed that close to the planets were designed with at least a few hours of spin up time available.

tlb wrote:I believe forts, by their nature, are always online; precisely because if you needed to make the investment in a fort, then you cannot afford it to miss its moment on stage. But I understand that you would expect some advance warning.

Silverwall wrote:Only junction forts need to perminatnly online planitary forts pre spider drive would always have some warning unless they were in a system so primative and impverished to have no detection system. Even Pre alliance Grayson was able to build an effective detection system.

I also believe most of the immediate online defenses were actually stationed on the massive orbital stations that were the first target of the Oyster bay strike.

I expect that, while all battle stations are not manned, there is still a watch crew in place and systems are ready. This is similar to what happened to Rob S. Pierre's son, who made an alpha transition into energy of an SD and was blow away by a very junior officer. Do you have text saying that I am wrong and you are right, or do we leave this question as unresolved?
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Re: Opening Phase of Havenite war
Post by Silverwall   » Thu Mar 07, 2019 11:06 pm

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tlb wrote:I also believe most of the immediate online defenses were actually stationed on the massive orbital stations that were the first target of the Oyster bay strike.

I expect that, while all battle stations are not manned, there is still a watch crew in place and systems are ready. This is similar to what happened to Rob S. Pierre's son, who made an alpha transition into energy of an SD and was blow away by a very junior officer. Do you have text saying that I am wrong and you are right, or do we leave this question as unresolved?[/quote]

The text evidence is based on a segment describing the attack where RFC mentions that if they had any amount of warning they could have raised sidewalls and blunted most of the attack on the stations. Sadly they did not have the 30 seconds that the Comm officer on the Belerophon had when Pierre Jr emerged in front of them.
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