Opening Phase of Havenite war

kzt wrote:Well, they went to war too weak to be willing use the only successful strategy they had used to win wars. Which right there is a huge red flag.

If the Peeps are unwilling to go for the throat because they don't have enough combat power and the Peeps also know that a long-term war of attrition won't lead to victory over Manticore then how exactly is going to war a sensible plan?

How exactly does stealing underwear lead to profit? Are you sure it does? Really sure? Once you go through that door you can't go back.

How exactly do the Peeps know this? They have knowledge of the fight in OBS and the big one in HOTQ, but that last one involved a Masadan crew - not its trained professionals. In both battles the smaller RMN vessel won, but only the first one requires an explanation. There is a term in psychology for unsupported confidence among people who lack essential knowledge, arising because they are unaware of the extent to which they are ignorant.

Parnell was not a dumb guy. He was very skilled at tactical and apparently operational level operations. I really have no idea what his plan was that was supposed to produce victory. There are just too many alternatives for Manticore that lead to places other than a peep victory.

kzt wrote:Parnell was not a dumb guy. He was very skilled at tactical and apparently operational level operations. I really have no idea what his plan was that was supposed to produce victory. There are just too many alternatives for Manticore that lead to places other than a peep victory.

Victory disease. Even if the newly conquered system fought against their "invitation" to join the welcoming embrace of the People's Republic of Haven (e.g., Trevor's Star/San Martin), victory was inevitable. They never considered the possibility that SKM (and the Alliance, especially Grayson) could resist the ultimate end of conquest. And the Mental Hygiene Police.

kzt wrote:Parnell was not a dumb guy. He was very skilled at tactical and apparently operational level operations. I really have no idea what his plan was that was supposed to produce victory. There are just too many alternatives for Manticore that lead to places other than a peep victory.

I think that we both agree that it was the technological gap that gave the RMN the advantage in an attritional war. A victory at Grayson would have given him all the current technology, and it was an unexpected move by Caparelli to set a trap there by feeding false information which caused that battle to swing the other way.

After OBS the RMN was no longer innocent of Haven's intentions. Even before then the Crown and elements of the RMN knew they were the next target. So perhaps before OBS a massive attack on the RMN home fleet might have worked, but at that point there was no reason to think attrition would fail.

kzt wrote:

Silverwall wrote:It is very clear from the early books that the deployment range of fleets of capital ships before these effects kick in are low at the start of the Narrative which is the context we are talking about.

You can tell this from the fact that the Haven navy NEVER tried a direct attack on Manticore from deep inside Haven space because it's just absurd. Oh, wait...

As I posted earlier, from Weber's description of the Battle of Cerebus I have calculated that the percent of ship mass that is fuel is not insignificant. The percent of ship volume that is fuel tank is thus very significant. Given the use of armor in the Honorverse, ship designers would have a powerful incentive to minimize fuel capacity as much as mission requirements allow.

The PRH had conquered a space some 50 lightyears or so across. Each conquest was an incremental step. Most combat operations were launched from well established bases within a few dozen lightyears of their target. As a result, their ships were designed to have more limited range.

By the time of AT ALL COSTS, Haven ship designs had evolved to SD(P)s. It is probable that the new designs had much higher fuel capacity, range and endurance. Haven probably built up its fleet supply ships as well.

I decided to actually try to think like the Octogon planners and used the numbers from SVW and the known deployments from the start of that book to try and estimate how many ships of the wall haven could free up for this hypothetical strike while keeping the strategic understanding that the planners would have.

Short version the havenite fleet wasn't big enough to cover critical defence commitments and mass a big enough fleet to first strike Manticore. The massive size of Haven really hurts them here.

Assumptions.
1) Haven planners do not know of towed pods but do know they are slightly inferior on a ship for ship basis

2) Haven planners know how well fortified Manticore is with fixed defenses. Planetary fortifications at this time have real value and the Octogon gives the Manticore fixed defenses a value of 100 wall equivalent based on the descriptions in text. They also won't try to c-fraction bombard the defenses in case I get an accidental eridani strike and piss of the 900lb gorilla that is the Sollies. Therefore they must plan to fight both fixed defenses and the Manty home fleet at the same time.

3) they must leave sufficient forces to at least slow down and manage any Manty nodal forces making spoiling/revenge attacks.

4) Haven Knows that BBs are worthless in a fleet major engagement and only uses them for rear area defence. Text evidence from 4th yeltsin and later in the war shows this to be true.


Total Opposing wallers as per the appendix in SVW
Haven: 460
Manticore: 301

Fleet deductions from both totals:
1) because of increased tensions both sides know somthing is up and have made a major effort to clear the refit/repair lists and have managed a frankly outstanding feet of each side only having 10% of wallers currently unavailable in the yards. Normally this number is about 25%

Haven: 414
Manticore: 270

2) Manticore has nodal fleets at Hancock, Grendlesbane and Yeltsins star + misc other deployed forces which in SVW add up to about 100 wallers.

Haven: 414
Manticore: 170

3) it is strategically vital haven maintian a strong capital fleet for home defence and if it gets reduced too much all strategic supprise is lost, the Manties will notice if they all go off somewhere. Haven maintains a 100 waller capital fleet.

Haven 314
Manticore: 170

4) Haven must maintian some forces at the border nodes and fleet bases of Barnett, Trevors star, Seabring, Treadway/Solway to prevend manty nodal forces running amok if things go sideways. total of 8 squadrons or 64 wallers

Haven: 250
Manticore: 170

5) Haven is big and even using BBs for most rear area security you have 5 other systems that are important enough for political/strategic/economic reasons to have 1 squadron of wallers which can also act as deep nodal defence forces. - 40 wallers

Final rough tally for the proposed first strike battle of Manticore

Haven: 210 wallers
Manticore: 170 wallers + massive fixed fortifications.

If I am the Havenite admiralty this is well short of the 270 wall equivalent force I see sitting in Manticore like a giant trapdoor spider.

NOTE: given the strategic/political understanding of warfare at the time I cannot justify reducing my other defensive commitments by enough to give me a 1-1 equality in wallers that would make a matched fight agains 170 manty wallers + fixed defenses.

NOTE 2: This is calculated using Havens flawed understanding of how much of an edge Manticore has in terms of Technology and crew capability. As shown in the later story Haven was well behind where it needs to be in this area so in fact needs approx an extra 20% numbers just to match a Manty force so the 270 wallers for a 1-1 fight the Octogon calculates would in fact need to be 324 wallers for a matched equavalent forces fight.

Going to war is always a risk. Wars start when two different parties care enough about an issue to fight and both believe they can win. At minimum one of them is wrong.

If you are unwilling to take risks you don't go to war. Once you make the decision to go to war you need to take the actions needed to win. 'Not losing 'is not a strategy the aggressor can take and still win. It's a viable tactic only for the defender. Which was Haven?

"Never take counsel of your fears"

The Pearls have a little bit on this sort of discussion, but does not address attritional strategy from the Haven side:
http://www.davidweber.net/posts/123-str ... ition.html
http://www.davidweber.net/posts/114-dee ... ategy.html

Silverwall wrote:I decided to actually try to think like the Octogon planners and used the numbers from SVW and the known deployments from the start of that book to try and estimate how many ships of the wall haven could free up for this hypothetical strike while keeping the strategic understanding that the planners would have.

Short version the havenite fleet wasn't big enough to cover critical defence commitments and mass a big enough fleet to first strike Manticore. The massive size of Haven really hurts them here.

Assumptions.
1) Haven planners do not know of towed pods but do know they are slightly inferior on a ship for ship basis

2) Haven planners know how well fortified Manticore is with fixed defenses. Planetary fortifications at this time have real value and the Octogon gives the Manticore fixed defenses a value of 100 wall equivalent based on the descriptions in text. They also won't try to c-fraction bombard the defenses in case I get an accidental eridani strike and piss of the 900lb gorilla that is the Sollies. Therefore they must plan to fight both fixed defenses and the Manty home fleet at the same time.

3) they must leave sufficient forces to at least slow down and manage any Manty nodal forces making spoiling/revenge attacks.

4) Haven Knows that BBs are worthless in a fleet major engagement and only uses them for rear area defence. Text evidence from 4th yeltsin and later in the war shows this to be true.


Total Opposing wallers as per the appendix in SVW
Haven: 460
Manticore: 301

Fleet deductions from both totals:
1) because of increased tensions both sides know somthing is up and have made a major effort to clear the refit/repair lists and have managed a frankly outstanding feet of each side only having 10% of wallers currently unavailable in the yards. Normally this number is about 25%

Haven: 414
Manticore: 270

2) Manticore has nodal fleets at Hancock, Grendlesbane and Yeltsins star + misc other deployed forces which in SVW add up to about 100 wallers.

Haven: 414
Manticore: 170

3) it is strategically vital haven maintian a strong capital fleet for home defence and if it gets reduced too much all strategic supprise is lost, the Manties will notice if they all go off somewhere. Haven maintains a 100 waller capital fleet.

Haven 314
Manticore: 170

4) Haven must maintian some forces at the border nodes and fleet bases of Barnett, Trevors star, Seabring, Treadway/Solway to prevend manty nodal forces running amok if things go sideways. total of 8 squadrons or 64 wallers

Haven: 250
Manticore: 170

5) Haven is big and even using BBs for most rear area security you have 5 other systems that are important enough for political/strategic/economic reasons to have 1 squadron of wallers which can also act as deep nodal defence forces. - 40 wallers

Final rough tally for the proposed first strike battle of Manticore

Haven: 210 wallers
Manticore: 170 wallers + massive fixed fortifications.

If I am the Havenite admiralty this is well short of the 270 wall equivalent force I see sitting in Manticore like a giant trapdoor spider.

NOTE: given the strategic/political understanding of warfare at the time I cannot justify reducing my other defensive commitments by enough to give me a 1-1 equality in wallers that would make a matched fight agains 170 manty wallers + fixed defenses.

NOTE 2: This is calculated using Havens flawed understanding of how much of an edge Manticore has in terms of Technology and crew capability. As shown in the later story Haven was well behind where it needs to be in this area so in fact needs approx an extra 20% numbers just to match a Manty force so the 270 wallers for a 1-1 fight the Octogon calculates would in fact need to be 324 wallers for a matched equavalent forces fight.

Very nice analysis!

Silverwall wrote:Short version the havenite fleet wasn't big enough to cover critical defence commitments and mass a big enough fleet to first strike Manticore. The massive size of Haven really hurts them here.

Which is one of my points upstream. Being so large, Haven had too many obligations to directly cash in on its accumulative advantage in hulls. Plus, to do so would have drawn down pickets to the point of telegraphing a Case Zulu. Their weight advantage wasn't enough to support going all in. Attacking a fortified position automatically cancels a large percentage of your weight advantage unless you have offsetting tech of your own. What percentage? And then there's the actual disparity of tech. Then there's an offset of strategy and tactics if you lose OpSec and allow the enemy to allow you to get them right where they want you.

If Haven would have came unveiling new wrinkles for the first time, like the Tripple Ripple, etc., etc. Maybe.

@kzt,

Unnecessary risks can be senseless and possibly suicidal. McArthur wanted to go directly for the juggler instead of Halsey's island hopping campaign. Should McArthur have been entertained? Undeniably, the leapfrogging campaign was very costly.

tlb wrote:The Pearls have a little bit on this sort of discussion, but does not address attritional strategy from the Haven side:
http://www.davidweber.net/posts/123-str ... ition.html
http://www.davidweber.net/posts/114-dee ... ategy.html

Which does point out that if Haven takes Manticore and somehow at the same time Manticore takes Haven Manticore is still toast.

Haven has it's own very extensive system defenses and forts. It's not a fun target for an SDM era force to attack.