Opening Phase of Havenite war

For a while I have been have a little problem deciphering the initial strategy of the People’s Navy during the first war with the SKM. We know that Haven subscribed to the same strategic thinking as the SLN simply due to their target choice, they go to the capital of their target nation and destroy their fleet or demand their surrender. Now that is out of necessity due to the fact that Haven attacked single system nations or at most 2-3 system nations. For all intents and purposed the SKM was a single system nation even factoring the Manticoran Alliance because the MA did not bring a significant amount of industry or fleet to the table, most if not all of the allies contributed light combatants for their home systems only and were picketed by RMN wallers to me this was a drain on the RMN rather than an asset to the MA.


During the opening phases of the war, the RMN had ~50 DN’s and ~56 SD’s deployed to Hancock and Grayson as far as Haven knew, that represented the two largest concentrations of ships outside of Home Fleet. Basilisk and Grendelsbane Station’s also likely had heavy presence in the range of 1-2 DN squadrons each. This Leaves 15% each of the SD’s and DN’s in Yard hands maybe a little less because many of those SD’s and DN’s would be relatively new but not likely too far off of the 15% mark. This Leaves Home Fleet with ~100 SD’s and ~28 DN’s. This would equal to 16 Battle Squadrons (SD) mixed in with DN’s to make up for units in for refit.


Haven committed 115 SD’s and 7 DN’s to the battles in Grayson and Hancock against 32 DN/SD’s. Assuming that everything stayed the Same and there were no last minute reinforcements from Home Fleet to Grayson the RMN would have had those 32 Ships to fight 122 of the PN’s. Even if the PN managed to destroy every one of those ships they would have taken losses and likely lost some of their deployed fleet in the process. Even if they’d managed to defeat all those ships while suffering relatively light casualties in the range of 10-20% this still would not have ended the war anywhere quickly enough. They attacked Hancock because they believed that it was lightly covered by BC and CA’s since the heavies were away. They attacked Grayson because they believed that half of 2nd Fleet was pulled out so they were actually aiming for even weaker opening punch. So basically with their opening Strategy they aimed to destroy the 4 Battle Squadrons of 2nd Fleet and a couple of Squadrons of CA/BC and screen which would not have ended the war in the opening phases. Even if everything had gone Haven's way and they managed complete surprise they would likely have destroyed only a portion of the RMN and a small portion at that while also loosing a proportional portion of their own fleet.

This brings me to my point, they(Haven) wanted a short war but they went about it in possibly one of the worst ways they could go, the only way it could have been worse is if they decided to split their forces further and attack more objectives. If they had concentrated that 120 of the wall they deployed in the opening phases and reinforced that fleet with an equal number of SD’s from other fleets while trowing in a third of the BB’s in to the mix it would have made for a very short war when they showed up to Manticore with 240 DN’s/SD’s and 100+ BB’s when Manticore only had 128 DN’s/SD’s in Home Fleet plus fixed defences. With the separation of the WHJ and Manticore the PN could have gone after Home Fleet and then once they were defeated gone after the WHJ defences. With Manticore defeated the entire alliance collapses without a doubt as they represented by far the largest navy and economy and industry in the entire alliance. Without Manticore and without Home Fleet, Task Force Hancock and 2nd Fleet would be unable to do much even if they consolidated as they would be alone without spare ammunition and friendly port for repairs.

So for the life of me I don’t understand the logic behind this strategy, it would have accomplished none of their long term goals, they would blow the cement of surprise and destroy a handful of BC’s/CA’s and screen in Handcock and as far as they knew only 4 Squadrons of the wall plus screen in Grayson. At the time Grayson also was not as big a player as it became later on. Plus this goes completely against their historical strategy and actions, even if successful this would not have accomplished as much as they wished it would by a long shot.If they captured Manticore the war is over, the way they went about it even if they killed off every SD and DN in those systems they would have taken out ~10% of the RMN’s wall with some BC’s and CA along with screen. The Manticore Alliance loses one minor(at the time) ally and a major base but ultimately has all of it’s industry and 90% of their fleet in service.

Haven could have safely assumed that Manticore would not be launching a surprise attack so even if a large % of their Wallers and BB's were unaccounted for the RMN could do nothing but plan and try to figure out where those ships disappeared to.

We know from EoH that some navies did not roll over and give up once their government had surrendered or simply been conquered. If the PRH had pulled a Filareta and begun the war in the Manticore system, even with overwhelming success, every RMN ship outside of the home system becomes an unpredictable guerrilla.

With potentially over 100 wallers loose... the PRH would have had to hold Manticore against an attack of that size, as well as defend Haven's most critical systems. After incurring heavy losses against Home Fleet and the forts.

Whereas if the Perseus plan had worked, the entire Hancock Task Force would be destroyed, along with Second Fleet at Grayson. Haven would have gained operational data on Manticoran hardware and doctrine. Their losses were only so bad because Manticore managed to defeat them in detail in most of the first battles(especially around Hancock). With that numerical advantage reversed, it's logical to think Havenite losses would have been proportionately lighter.

There may also have been an unwillingness to absorb the losses required in a Battle of Manticore as the opening part of a war, even if the war ends with that single battle(and it would not, see above). Unlike the Sollies who ordered Filareta in, Havenite leadership knew it would cost two or three million lives.

They made a strategic mistake. Time was not on the side of Haven, but they acted like it was. If Manticore is being slowly ground down they are going to look for alternatives, even expensive and uncomfortable alternatives. Like the alternative on the far side of the WH.

But you’ll notice that David never portrays Manticore as a nation in a fight to the death with a larger, stronger opponent. Internal politics and court intrigue is shown as something that is important, not the supposed existential struggle with the peeps.

The direct thrust at Manticore was the war winning strategy for the peeps. Probably the only war winning strategy.

kzt wrote:They made a strategic mistake. Time was not on the side of Haven, but they acted like it was. If Manticore is being slowly ground down they are going to look for alternatives, even expensive and uncomfortable alternatives. Like the alternative on the far side of the WH.

But you’ll notice that David never portrays Manticore as a nation in a fight to the death with a larger, stronger opponent. Internal politics and court intrigue is shown as something that is important, not the supposed existential struggle with the peeps.

The direct thrust at Manticore was the war winning strategy for the peeps. Probably the only war winning strategy.

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Also note the PRN logistics and maintenance had been designed around a series of short conflicts where they (Haven) had overwhelming force followed by a rear-area upkeep/refit of the involved ships. I believe Trever's Star/San Martin was one of the few star nations that was able to put up an effective defense

The early RMN build-up warned that the PRH-SKM war was not going to be a short conflict.

-- Stewart

kzt wrote:They made a strategic mistake. Time was not on the side of Haven, but they acted like it was. If Manticore is being slowly ground down they are going to look for alternatives, even expensive and uncomfortable alternatives. Like the alternative on the far side of the WH.

But you’ll notice that David never portrays Manticore as a nation in a fight to the death with a larger, stronger opponent. Internal politics and court intrigue is shown as something that is important, not the supposed existential struggle with the peeps.

The direct thrust at Manticore was the war winning strategy for the peeps. Probably the only war winning strategy.

There is no way anyone would start a war with a tough opponent like Manticore by attacking two systems with relatively minor pickets. The plan was for 80+ SD's to punch out 32 RMN SD's and take Grayson, and a bunch of DN's and SD's to punch out a Squadron of BC's and CA plus screen.

They needed to defeat the RMN quick knowing their financial situation like they did, if nothing else they should have tried to attack Grayson when the entire picket was there as far as they knew. They purposefully made a plan to attack the SKM with the most risk and least amount of reward. If they win a resounding victory they stand to capture and/or destroy a major RMN base with a minor force protecting it and a minor ally with a minor force protecting it(after waiting for 50% of the Wall to pull out). If on the other hand things didn't go their way like it happened they ended up losing 77+ wallers and probably in the neighbourhood of 100+ Lighter Units and that is them being lucky.

stewart wrote:

kzt wrote:They made a strategic mistake. Time was not on the side of Haven, but they acted like it was. If Manticore is being slowly ground down they are going to look for alternatives, even expensive and uncomfortable alternatives. Like the alternative on the far side of the WH.

But you’ll notice that David never portrays Manticore as a nation in a fight to the death with a larger, stronger opponent. Internal politics and court intrigue is shown as something that is important, not the supposed existential struggle with the peeps.

The direct thrust at Manticore was the war winning strategy for the peeps. Probably the only war winning strategy.

-----------------------

Also note the PRN logistics and maintenance had been designed around a series of short conflicts where they (Haven) had overwhelming force followed by a rear-area upkeep/refit of the involved ships. I believe Trever's Star/San Martin was one of the few star nations that was able to put up an effective defense

The early RMN build-up warned that the PRH-SKM war was not going to be a short conflict.

-- Stewart

Unless they went for an attack on the one system that actually mattered with overwhelming force. With one attack on the Manticoran home system they could have wiped out 55+% of the RMN's wall and probably 90+% of their ship building capability thereby making the rest of the RMN's fleet irrelevant in the long run.


They aught to have done their research and known that the likelihood of s surprise attack by Manticore was low. Pull out as many SD's as you can, pull out all of the DN's and as many BB's as you can pull out and form one force, a force of 200 SD's, 40 DN's and 100 BB's shows up to challenge Manticore's Home Fleet and it won't be a good day for Manticore's 128 SD/DN Home Fleet.

Nice thread!

I've posited the same thing. The Peeps waited until after their window of opportunity had long since closed. Albeit, there was a lot of that going around. There is one big variable though. To do what you suggest would have involved assembling this massive juggernaut somehow in secrecy, which, given the brains of Manticoran Admiralty and Honor, would surely have signaled a Case Zulu. With the element of surprise, the result might've been burnt Manticoran toast. If OpSec had been compromised and a welcoming committee formed, it might not have been worth it. One thing Haven had to worry about was the fact that any such attempt would have been an "all in" attempt, which might have left them bare naked with so many systems to cover.

Haven had too much internal strife as a natural combatant. A house divided against itself cannot stand, let alone conquer. I always thought the MWW did a fine job selling the reason they didn't attack much sooner is because their strategy and focus was internally -- their heads were caught up in their own uncivil wars.

Also, the Peeps needed control of Trevor's Star before executing such a plan.

Two things:

1) While winning an opening battle of manticore would be great they also had to plan what happens if they loose. Then they have almost certainly thrown away any numerical advantage they had and are now playing defence against a riled up manticore with only a fraction of the fleet. Failing to win out right is not somthing they can come back from. Also it is a massive political escalation vis-a-vis the league and may provoke the 900lb bear.

2) no-one had ever tried such a massive exercise for over 200 years. This is like asking the US to launch the D-day landings in early 1943 without first having practiced in Torch and the Mediteranean

3) Bonus point: no-one epected the Coup by Robspierre and the Committee of public safety. Without thier interfearance the disasters of the immediate post Hancock/Yeltsin defeats would have been nowhere as bad. RFC made it very clear the political uncertaintly did to the PRN what the Russian revolution did to the Tsars army in 1917.

I think they went in caution because the handful of (admittedly light unit) encounters between RMN and Peep units in the years before the war had gone unexpectedly against the Peeps.
They were trying to hit targets that were hard enough to give them data on how big the tech edge was but weak enough that even a worst case disadvantage could be overcome by their numerical superiority.

Plus punching out Hancock'd repair base cripples Manticore's ability to sustain operations in that sector. Their ships have to move much further to the rear for repair which adds time and reduces the number of effective ships. (Plus you can hang around and hope to pick of piecemeal reinforcements that trickle in before word of Hancock's loss spreads) Though remember the decision to attack right then wasn't the plan; that was Admiral Rollins improvisation when he found out Yancy Parks had pulled out all his wallers. The plan was for Rollins to hit Parks' 16 SDs + 16 DN with the 24 SDs + 8 DNs at Seaford 9 reinforced with 16 more wallers; so 48 peep wallers vs 32 RMN. With a 50% advantage in hulls and a repair base Parks would presumably be reluctant to lose Rollins would be expected to pin them against the base and take out and damage many of the RMN units before the remainder rolled behind their wedges and ran. (Remember that it was assumed that forces couldn't be more than attritionally hurt until forced to fight for an objective they wouldn't abandon - though this was another as yet untested assumption)

It all worked out very badly for the Peeps, and in hindsight they should have stripped rear area forces more ruthlessly to apply more weight at the front. But nobody had ever fought an interstellar war on anything even remotely close to this scale and the Peeps weren't willing to roll the dice on an all-or-nothing attack.

I'm not actually sure even a 2:1 advantage in tonnage would be enough, in a attack on the Manticore system, to overcome the complete surprise of getting hit in the face with all the pods Home Fleet can tow (and possible additional pods dropped by fast minelayers that they can fall back on) plus all the ECM, decoy, etc edge than the RMN held at the start of the war.

Probing semi-cautiously for information and favorable attritional losses turned out to be a bad strategy; but it's hard to totally fault military planners for trying to use apparently overwhelming force on limited objectives until they had more information on the enemy's actual abilities.

Sigs wrote:This brings me to my point, they(Haven) wanted a short war but they went about it in possibly one of the worst ways they could go, the only way it could have been worse is if they decided to split their forces further and attack more objectives. ...

Haven tried to get cute and push things into a situation where Haven count have a war without getting hurt in the process.

Haven tried to manipulate evens instead of just fighting a war. When they did fight, they held back expecting Manticore to have some trick up their sleeve.