Post-UH Financial Instruments

GloriousRuse wrote:Ok, technically not specie. A variety of foreign currencies, but predominantly the Sol. The manties and their various corporations probably hold large amounts of credit (as in, other people owe them money) in Sols. And so forth.

While short of deciding to melt the league economy there is no reason to issue a Sol replacement, it’s hard to imagine a bounce back to parity. Either a confidence loss, government inflation, or a bunch of banks jumping the gun on giving themselves new money while the cats away...

(And yes, a purely logical cooperative answer is they shouldn’t. After all, a flow of new money in will devalue the Sol. But at the bank level it a) won’t seem that way because it’s hard to believe you’ll be responsible for inflation with just a system adjustment and b) if we’re playing a prisoner dilemma then we all assume that the other banks are going to make themselves richer at the cost of the common good)

Anyhow, it would seem like the Manties are likely to have shot themselves in the foot here. It would be like the Chinese experienced a plunging dollar. All glory to knocking over their hegemonic competitors, but the loss of literal trillions in debt and holdings would be noticed.

TFLYTSNBN wrote:As wealthy as the SKM is (or was priot to Oyster Bay) Manticore's economy simply is no large enough for the Manty dollar to be the galactic reserve currency. Sort of like the Swiss Franc trying to be the global reserve currency.

However; as Weber has at least alluded to since OBS, the Manticore Womrhole Junction makes Manticore the financial hub of the galaxy. By exploiting the ability to reach most economic centers much faster than the competition, Manticoran banks enjoy a profound competitive advantage. If Manty banks skim only one tenth of one percent off the top of every transaction then the cash flow is ginoromous.

So it would seem that the Manticore government and financial systems need to take a leading role in calming the Solarian banking system after UH.

Because of continuing interactions, wouldn't the Solarian banking system be more like a recurring prisoner dilemma; which encourages cooperation, provided there is a way to punish non-cooperators.

tlb wrote:

GloriousRuse wrote:Ok, technically not specie. A variety of foreign currencies, but predominantly the Sol. The manties and their various corporations probably hold large amounts of credit (as in, other people owe them money) in Sols. And so forth.

While short of deciding to melt the league economy there is no reason to issue a Sol replacement, it’s hard to imagine a bounce back to parity. Either a confidence loss, government inflation, or a bunch of banks jumping the gun on giving themselves new money while the cats away...

(And yes, a purely logical cooperative answer is they shouldn’t. After all, a flow of new money in will devalue the Sol. But at the bank level it a) won’t seem that way because it’s hard to believe you’ll be responsible for inflation with just a system adjustment and b) if we’re playing a prisoner dilemma then we all assume that the other banks are going to make themselves richer at the cost of the common good)

Anyhow, it would seem like the Manties are likely to have shot themselves in the foot here. It would be like the Chinese experienced a plunging dollar. All glory to knocking over their hegemonic competitors, but the loss of literal trillions in debt and holdings would be noticed.

TFLYTSNBN wrote:As wealthy as the SKM is (or was priot to Oyster Bay) Manticore's economy simply is no large enough for the Manty dollar to be the galactic reserve currency. Sort of like the Swiss Franc trying to be the global reserve currency.

However; as Weber has at least alluded to since OBS, the Manticore Womrhole Junction makes Manticore the financial hub of the galaxy. By exploiting the ability to reach most economic centers much faster than the competition, Manticoran banks enjoy a profound competitive advantage. If Manty banks skim only one tenth of one percent off the top of every transaction then the cash flow is ginoromous.

So it would seem that the Manticore government and financial systems need to take a leading role in calming the Solarian banking system after UH.

Because of continuing interactions, wouldn't the Solarian banking system be more like a recurring prisoner dilemma; which encourages cooperation, provided there is a way to punish non-cooperators.

I think that the SEM will take a leading role in calming the SLN financial markets.

Stage 1 of the calming will be lifting Case Lacoon 1. Manticoran freighters will resume carrying freight for SL customers. The MWJ will be reopened for everyone's cargo ships.

Stage 2 regarding to Case Lacoon 2 will be more complicated. The RMN now understands like never before the advantages of having the strategic mobility conferred by wormholes. The RMN is NOT going to relinquish control over any wormhole terminae to the SLN or OFS. Aside from the military implications, recognizing SL claims over wormhole terminae would be a defafto recognition that the SL has sovereignty over "SL space" not just the territory within the territorial limits of SL member systems. I expect that the SEM will be negotiating with inhabited systems adjacent to wormhole terminae or junctions (except the MWJ network) to have them claim sovereignty either independently in cooperative with the SEM or better yet join the SEM. An inhabited galaxy in which the SEM controls ALL wormholes is obviously desirable.

They are going to have a hard time getting that business back. It takes a lot of stuff to fill a large freighter. Like 1/4 of the entire US wheat production in one freighter kind of 'lot'.

Those contracts are normally done a long time in advance on a long term (multi-year) basis and secured with a very large bond. If the shipper fails to show up on schedule or fails to deliver then the customer gets paid from the bond and the contract is voided.

And people who get burned like this have very long memories.

One of the major things Manticore wants out of the war is the stability of ecomomic markets. They have virtualy wiped out the orbital manufacturing in the Sol System but not all of it. There may be some in the civilian habitats. Not a lot but some. Unlike the Operation Buccaneer and Parthian attacks, they specificaly did not destroy the civilian habitats. I doubt they wiped out the civilian/commercial shuttle craft/ships in system. I also don't recall that they destroyed any civilian starships.

Except for the systems devistated by Operation Buccaneer, none of the SL members nor the other Independent Systems suffered the actual destruction of anything physical. The trade- and the relating failures due to loss of being able to receive orders for goods, deliver goods or receive goods, they other systems have thier industry bases at least physicaly intact.

Manticore may not be able to generate much in the way of SEM produced exports but they have that massive merchant fleet and they have the Junction plus they now control so many other wormholes. They are unlikely to prohibit civilian freighter traffic through those wormholes. Why, because it would be very bad for business and make a lot of enemies from exactly the places they want to continue (or go back to) having trade with.

Can SEM survive and recover as an exporter of manufactured goods, sure. But not if creates an environment of fear and hate such as it would be not reopening the wormholes to commerical traffic by everybody. At the very least SEM wants those MMM ships working (profitable) and the fee income from at least the Junction and then whatever it works out with the former holders of the Lacoon II seized termini. My bet is still that SEM will work out some arrangement/treaty with the prior holders of these termini (other than OFS) and retain a greater or lesser interest and contol but probably take a lot less that what OFS was sucking away in fees etc.

SEM, and at this point ROH, can take up at least a partial role of commerce protection but not in any heavy handed way. SEM does not ever appear to have charged for the commerce protection it did (granted it was in the best interests of the Kingdom/Empire and the MMM) but they did get a lot of benifit out of it. Keeping their own shipping safe and smoothing the flow of trade was one. Training it's Navy in what was essentialy a low intensity (expept when acutaly engaged) conflict with primarily pirates. Bringing up it's officer corp with a fair level of diplomatic training and real time experience dealing with other systems and intersting going on out in the larger galaxy. They patrolled, not set piece routines but real time commerce protection sweeps and had to adjust to trends and incedents.

I expect to find that, other than some Transtellars who have problems for all sorts of reason or people who were already unhappy with SEM before the war, most Systems (except the Renasseance Faction etc) and merchant shipping will be very happy to swim in an ocean where RMN and the rule of law (evenly applied) go together as normal course of business.