spoiler(s) Wars to come

Regardless of why totalitarians sought centralized economic and political power, the result is the same. The economy is most efficient when decisions are made as close to the supplier and consumer as possible. The requires enough wealth to remain in the hands of those that require goods and services to enable voluntary exchange. Oligarchs and governments make decisions deploying too high concentrations of wealth to adequately address the needs/concerns of society as a whole. Their solutions don't and can't really solve every citizen's problems.

Most people will be best served when they have enough resources to pay for their own needs. Totalitarianism creates inefficiencies in the distribution of a society's assets to reduce the average standard of living possible for a given society. Seeing how that plays out in Siddermark, Desnair and the different elements of Harchong is a wonderful comparison. The range from anarchy to totalitarianism and the logical consequence in standards of living is a realistic extrapolation of human society.

fallsfromtrees wrote:And if Siddermark attempts to invade Silkiah, the Lord Protector had better not be in the capital, or he will discover just how far a Thunderbolt can throw a 10 inch shell.

And attempting to invade the Temple Lands could be a bad, as I suspect that Charis would frown severely on the attempt

I wonder whether or not Siddermark attacks Dohlar. Hygyns can gin up hard feelings against Dohlar much easier than he can against Silkiah. Until Dohlar's tech gets quite a bit more advanced, Siddermark's population will be able to offset quite a bit. That's true for as long as the fight is on land.

I suspect that Siddermark can even glean off Charisian tech from the Temple Lands and Border Kingdoms. They can also buy from Desnair and S Harchong. The more I consider the problem, the more Dohlar becomes the easy target for the passions Hygyns needs to direct. Automatic weapons will be introduced there first to improve Silkiah's defenses. Between machine guns (eventually) and artillery, Desnair will pay a stiff price for attacking them. So will Siddermark. That dynamic won't apply for Siddermark attacking Dohlar.

That might spark Charis "leaking" weapons tech to Dohlar, but not until Siddermark does something aggressive.

PeterZ wrote:Regardless of why totalitarians sought centralized economic and political power, the result is the same. The economy is most efficient when decisions are made as close to the supplier and consumer as possible. The requires enough wealth to remain in the hands of those that require goods and services to enable voluntary exchange. Oligarchs and governments make decisions deploying too high concentrations of wealth to adequately address the needs/concerns of society as a whole. Their solutions don't and can't really solve every citizen's problems.

Agreed. A fundamental problem with centralized control over an economy is inflexibility. The former Soviet Union provided good examples. The lower level functionaries responsible for implementing policy had no authority to change it if it wasn't working and had to kick things upstairs. You also got a lot of what was described in Harchong, of "telling the bosses what they want to hear". I've run across amusing stories of centrsl government initiatives where they provided funding for things they thought desirable. The locals implementing the plans happily took the money, and sent back perfectly accurate reports on the progress they were making. They just weren't implementing the plans in any manner the central committee had in mind, but judged correctly that no inspector would be sent to the boonies to see what they actually did.

Most people will be best served when they have enough resources to pay for their own needs.

Totalitarianism creates inefficiencies in the distribution of a society's assets to reduce the average standard of living possible for a given society. Seeing how that plays out in Siddermark, Desnair and the different elements of Harchong is a wonderful comparison. The range from anarchy to totalitarianism and the logical consequence in standards of living is a realistic extrapolation of human society.

Yes. The underlying question is control of resource allocation. Who controls the capital that must be invested to provide the needed productivity?

Market based economies have price as a signal for where assets should be invested. Centralized economies make asset allocation decisions that often have little to do with actual economic needs, and are more likely concerned with retaining political power.
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Dennis

fallsfromtrees wrote:And if Siddermark attempts to invade Silkiah, the Lord Protector had better not be in the capital, or he will discover just how far a Thunderbolt can throw a 10 inch shell.

I don't see Siddarmark trying to invade Silkiah, but I do see Desnair trying to regain control over Silkiah while Siddarmark is distracted with their own meltdown.

As of the end of TFT, the only country that 1) guaranteed Silkian independence and 2) is in any shape to do anything about an invasion of Silkiah is Charis. And even with steamships, they can't get an army there as fast as Desnair can. The treaty probably assumed that Siddarmark would handle immediate response while Charis pulled their forces together and loaded the ships, but that ain't happening now.

Julia Minor wrote:

fallsfromtrees wrote:And if Siddermark attempts to invade Silkiah, the Lord Protector had better not be in the capital, or he will discover just how far a Thunderbolt can throw a 10 inch shell.

I don't see Siddarmark trying to invade Silkiah, but I do see Desnair trying to regain control over Silkiah while Siddarmark is distracted with their own meltdown.

As of the end of TFT, the only country that 1) guaranteed Silkian independence and 2) is in any shape to do anything about an invasion of Silkiah is Charis. And even with steamships, they can't get an army there as fast as Desnair can. The treaty probably assumed that Siddarmark would handle immediate response while Charis pulled their forces together and loaded the ships, but that ain't happening now.

Revisit North watch on Joe Buckley's site. The land routes into Silkiah are few and narrow. Well emplaced forces supported by naval guns can hold off any number of attacking battalions. I suspect there are already enough forces deployed there to hold off whatever Desnair can throw. The key question; does the ICN still has assets deployed in the Gulf of Jahras? I suspect that Silkiah has gained control of the North shore of the Gulf for defensive reasons.
http://infodump.thefifthimperium.com/entry/Safehold/338/1

PeterZ wrote:

Julia Minor wrote:[I don't see Siddarmark trying to invade Silkiah, but I do see Desnair trying to regain control over Silkiah while Siddarmark is distracted with their own meltdown.

As of the end of TFT, the only country that 1) guaranteed Silkian independence and 2) is in any shape to do anything about an invasion of Silkiah is Charis. And even with steamships, they can't get an army there as fast as Desnair can. The treaty probably assumed that Siddarmark would handle immediate response while Charis pulled their forces together and loaded the ships, but that ain't happening now.

Revisit North watch on Joe Buckley's site. The land routes into Silkiah are few and narrow. Well emplaced forces supported by naval guns can hold off any number of attacking battalions. I suspect there are already enough forces deployed there to hold off whatever Desnair can throw. The key question; does the ICN still has assets deployed in the Gulf of Jahras? I suspect that Silkiah has gained control of the North shore of the Gulf for defensive reasons.

Dohlor shares a lot of border with Silkiah, and his little reason to be fond of Desnair. And Charis maintains a naval presence in the area. I don't believe they have ground troops near by, but I suspect they have sea lift to transport Dohlaran Army units through Silkiah Bsy and land them off North Watch to support the Grand Duchy. I think Rainos Alvahrez and Farstair Richter would be delighted to teach Desnair the error of its ways.

What I don't know is what sort of military power the Grand Duchy has. My impression is that the have no navy, and what might pass for their army is primarily an internal peacekeeping force. Their borders and neutrality were previously guaranteed by Mother Church, so they didn't really need an army or navy for self defense.
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Dennis

Julia Minor wrote:[I don't see Siddarmark trying to invade Silkiah, but I do see Desnair trying to regain control over Silkiah while Siddarmark is distracted with their own meltdown.

As of the end of TFT, the only country that 1) guaranteed Silkian independence and 2) is in any shape to do anything about an invasion of Silkiah is Charis. And even with steamships, they can't get an army there as fast as Desnair can. The treaty probably assumed that Siddarmark would handle immediate response while Charis pulled their forces together and loaded the ships, but that ain't happening now.

PeterZ wrote:Revisit North watch on Joe Buckley's site. The land routes into Silkiah are few and narrow. Well emplaced forces supported by naval guns can hold off any number of attacking battalions. I suspect there are already enough forces deployed there to hold off whatever Desnair can throw. The key question; does the ICN still has assets deployed in the Gulf of Jahras? I suspect that Silkiah has gained control of the North shore of the Gulf for defensive reasons.

DMcCunney wrote:Dohlor shares a lot of border with Silkiah, and his little reason to be fond of Desnair. And Charis maintains a naval presence in the area. I don't believe they have ground troops near by, but I suspect they have sea lift to transport Dohlaran Army units through Silkiah Bsy and land them off North Watch to support the Grand Duchy. I think Rainos Alvahrez and Farstair Richter would be delighted to teach Desnair the error of its ways.

What I don't know is what sort of military power the Grand Duchy has. My impression is that the have no navy, and what might pass for their army is primarily an internal peacekeeping force. Their borders and neutrality were previously guaranteed by Mother Church, so they didn't really need an army or navy for self defense.
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Dennis

Silkiah was demilitarized as part of the Treaty of Silk Town. The CoGA guranteed Silkiah's independence. Now, they are free to arm themselves as they see fit. I doubt they will completely rely in the ICA, even if the EoC guarantees their independence. I do suspect that the Grand Ducal Army of Silkiah will be armed to ICA standards. Combined with the forces supplied by the EoC, Silkiah will be very tough.

C'mon, they have had 15 years to build up those forces. Even if Silkiah trsuted Siddermark to provide some military support initially, Silkiah had been sniffing around dohlar for the past 8-10 years. That suggests they had failing cponfidence in Siddermark for quite some time.

Odds are high that Silkiah is armed to the teeth and looking for more than one ally to secure their independence. Of the two Silkiah is very likely the tougher nut than Dohlar if for no other reason that Silkiah has a much narrower border to defend. That makes an attack on Dohlar much more likely. An attack on BOTH Silkiah and Dohlar by Desnair and Siddermark slightly less likely. And an attack on Silkiah alone by Desnair the lest likely.

PeterZ wrote:

DMcCunney wrote:Dohlor shares a lot of border with Silkiah, and his little reason to be fond of Desnair. And Charis maintains a naval presence in the area. I don't believe they have ground troops near by, but I suspect they have sea lift to transport Dohlaran Army units through Silkiah Bsy and land them off North Watch to support the Grand Duchy. I think Rainos Alvahrez and Farstair Richter would be delighted to teach Desnair the error of its ways.

What I don't know is what sort of military power the Grand Duchy has. My impression is that they have no navy, and what might pass for their army is primarily an internal peacekeeping force. Their borders and neutrality were previously guaranteed by Mother Church, so they didn't really need an army or navy for self defense./quote]Silkiah was demilitarized as part of the Treaty of Silk Town. The CoGA guranteed Silkiah's independence. Now, they are free to arm themselves as they see fit. I doubt they will completely rely in the ICA, even if the EoC guarantees their independence. I do suspect that the Grand Ducal Army of Silkiah will be armed to ICA standards. Combined with the forces supplied by the EoC, Silkiah will be very tough.

I think that's a fair assumption. I just have no TextEv one way or the other. If I were the Grand Duchy, I'd arm for my own defense.

C'mon, they have had 15 years to build up those forces. Even if Silkiah trusted Siddermark to provide some military support initially, Silkiah had been sniffing around dohlar for the past 8-10 years. That suggests they had failing confidence in Siddermark for quite some time.

Yes, they've had fifteen years, and could arm nicely. We simply have no TextEv about what they've actually done. I do think you are right, however.

Odds are high that Silkiah is armed to the teeth and looking for more than one ally to secure their independence. Of the two Silkiah is very likely the tougher nut than Dohlar if for no other reason that Silkiah has a much narrower border to defend. That makes an attack on Dohlar much more likely. An attack on BOTH Silkiah and Dohlar by Desnair and Siddermark slightly less likely. And an attack on Silkiah alone by Desnair the lest likely.

Dohlar has no reason to attack Silkiah, and it it were suggested, King Rahnyld would likely say "Why in Langhorne's name would I want to do that?"

Desnair and Siddermark might present a challenge, but I don't see the two ganging up like that. Each would want all the marbles and not want to share.

Given Siddermark's internal problems, I don't see them being able to do it, even if so inclined. They have too much else on their plate to be able to mount an invasion.

Desnair alone might consider it, but that would require Marhys to be even more stupid than usual. Aside from what the Grand Duchy might have available, I'm sure King Rahnyld would tell Grand Duke Konrad "If you want to Dohlaran assistance, just ask. We have a bone to pick with Desnair too."
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Dennis

Hygyns in Siddermark has a tiger by the tail. His cronies will want to secure their political hold on the country through machine politics. That means keeping emotions running high while directing any disaffection targeted squarely at some target. Dohlar and Charis are very likely targets. If he can manage a large enough minority that is both vocal and violent, his electioneering machine can manufacture enough votes to win elections. The secondary benefit to conquering Dohlar is destruction of Dohlar's production to supply demand on Haven. Siddermark's production becomes more valuable.

Bottom line is that what started out only as a domestic political tactic can drag them into war. Hygyns' policies won't fix the economic problems and the mob will those to blame punished.

Given the Scueler Visitation, how likely will the Temple Lands erupt in civil war? The current and previous Grand Vicars have just replaced all the corrupt and purely pragmatic leaders of the CoGA with devout patriarchs. The Visitation will challenge the CoGA on fundamentally theological level. The sort of challenge that will drive those true believers into passionately defended theological "nations" within the Temple Lands.

Hello civil war.