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TFT *SPOILERS* thoughts, discussions, and future speculation

This fascinating series is a combination of historical seafaring, swashbuckling adventure, and high technological science-fiction. Join us in a discussion!
Re: TFT *SPOILERS* thoughts, discussions, and future specula
Post by PeterZ   » Sun Jan 13, 2019 4:09 pm

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Dilandu wrote:
SilverbladeTE wrote:Considering "ingratitude" and the way Fate can throw perverse U-turns and problems....
Charles De Gaulle and France

After WW2 it's a bit like Siddirmark
De Gaulle was a complete ingracious ass to put it mildly and not nearly the genius he thought he was, sigh
If someone else had taken his place...things may have turned out better

The Resistance was a complete.mess of groups who often fought each other and many horrible criminals evaded.justice after the war because of political garbage
Lots of gangsterism and revenge killlings

Not hard to understand WHY, if you study the history
Just Human Nature and chaos...alas

One bit.of history of after WW2 period that has been really overlooked is the extent criminality got.to, secret bases/villages sprang up where weapons, drugs, stolen art, bullion, prostitutes and sex slaves (grabbed from mass of refugees) were sold
Huge fortunes were made
This is a likely issue in Siddirmark, I think


Not to mention how USA after WW2 directly linked economical help to France and Italy with expulsion of communists from the government... despite the fact, that French Popular Front have the votes of more than a quarter of population. Yeah, "the marvels of American democracy".

THAT is why Charis and the IC did the right thing by not interfering. The US tried that option and sowed antipathy. Similar results could have happened had Charis either forced the issue or used their tech to manipulate events.
I was born in Indonesia, another nation whose internal politics was interfered with in the US' anti communist war. I agree communism deserved to be defeated, but many Indonesians don't agree. Even I don't agree with the tactics the US employed in the country of my birth. Suborning the overthrow of a duly elected government is hard to justify, even if the goal is laudable.
Last edited by PeterZ on Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: TFT *SPOILERS* thoughts, discussions, and future specula
Post by Dilandu   » Sun Jan 13, 2019 4:21 pm

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PeterZ wrote:THAT is why Charis and the IC did the right thing by not interfering. The US tried that option and sowed antipathy. Similar results could have happened had Charis either forced the issue or used their tech to manipulate events.


Agreed with your logic - the Charisian non-interference was the most logical thing for that moment. If it failed, its because there are no infallible strategies.

I was born in Indonesia, another nation whose internal politics was interfered with in the US' anti communist war. I agree communism deserved to be defeated, but many Indonesians don't agree. Even I don't agree with the tactics the US employed in the country of my birth. Suborning the overthrow of a duly elected government is hard to justify, even if the oral is laudable.


I understand you feeling perfectly. And I'll be honest, Indonesia Sukarno wasn't exactly the best ruler ever - he made a very big mess out of Indonesian economy.

But, still must point out - without any disrespect intended! - that it was USSR help that allowed Indonesia to reunite with Western New Guinea. At least, to reunite without the fight. One of the reasons why Netherlands agreed to left New Guinea to UN decisions was because their old military could not compete with state-of-art Soviet equipment, provided to Indonesia (like Tu-16 jet bombers with long-range anti-ship missiles). So, it wasn't also all black.
------------------------------

Oh well, if shortening the front is what the Germans crave,
Let's shorten it to very end - the length of Fuhrer's grave.

(Red Army lyrics from 1945)
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Re: TFT *SPOILERS* thoughts, discussions, and future specula
Post by PeterZ   » Sun Jan 13, 2019 4:35 pm

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Dilandu wrote:
PeterZ wrote:THAT is why Charis and the IC did the right thing by not interfering. The US tried that option and sowed antipathy. Similar results could have happened had Charis either forced the issue or used their tech to manipulate events.


Agreed with your logic - the Charisian non-interference was the most logical thing for that moment. If it failed, its because there are no infallible strategies.

I was born in Indonesia, another nation whose internal politics was interfered with in the US' anti communist war. I agree communism deserved to be defeated, but many Indonesians don't agree. Even I don't agree with the tactics the US employed in the country of my birth. Suborning the overthrow of a duly elected government is hard to justify, even if the oral is laudable.


I understand you feeling perfectly. And I'll be honest, Indonesia Sukarno wasn't exactly the best ruler ever - he made a very big mess out of Indonesian economy.

But, still must point out - without any disrespect intended! - that it was USSR help that allowed Indonesia to reunite with Western New Guinea. At least, to reunite without the fight. One of the reasons why Netherlands agreed to left New Guinea to UN decisions was because their old military could not compete with state-of-art Soviet equipment, provided to Indonesia (like Tu-16 jet bombers with long-range anti-ship missiles). So, it wasn't also all black.

Sukarno's lack does not justify deposing him outside the legal process of that nation. Nor would Charis be justified in manipulating or strong arming Siddermakians no matter how those Siddermarkian deserve it outside the legal process.
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Re: TFT *SPOILERS* thoughts, discussions, and future specula
Post by Keith_w   » Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:00 pm

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SilverbladeTE wrote:Considering "ingratitude" and the way Fate can throw perverse U-turns and problems....
Charles De Gaulle and France

After WW2 it's a bit like Siddirmark
De Gaulle was a complete ingracious ass to put it mildly and not nearly the genius he thought he was, sigh
If someone else had taken his place...things may have turned out better



As Winston Churchill supposedly once said in reference to De Gaulle, "All men have crosses to bear, mine is the cross of Lorraine"
--
A common mistake people make when trying to design something completely foolproof is to underestimate the ingenuity of complete fools.
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Re: TFT *SPOILERS* thoughts, discussions, and future specula
Post by ywing14   » Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:39 pm

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PeterZ wrote:I see the potential for Charis to be drawn into 3 conflicts.

Dohlar could be drawn into rescuing Westmarch, Thesmar and Glacierheart from a Siddermark gone orally off the rails. Imagine the Siddermark oligarchs going all Mussolini Itally and Thesmar and Glacierheart wanting out. If Dohlar backed by the CoGA want to help them achieve independence, Charis may be dragged into it as well.

South Harchong finds a way to land troops in North Harchong. They attack East Harchong. The United Provinces go to help and require Charisian help

Desnair jumps in the harass Dohlar in the Gulf and Silkiah via North Watch. Charis has to commit to supporting Thesmar via their merchant marine and Silkiah with the ICA.

All of this happens after Siddermark has nationalized fully up to date and operating Charisian manufactories. Those operating manufactories are worth quite a bit to South Harchong, especially the managers that can teach a South Harchong's workers how to do it.

Toss in a true doctrinal dispute sparked by the Schueler Visitation to jack up the Temple Loyalists and Charis is stretched very thin indeed.


There are a lot more posts between this one and when I am posting now so there may have been things that could be addressed.

But South Harchong has access to the North already that's how they were able to ship the guns in that were used against the Valley.

I don't believe Dohlar can outright intervene in the Republic without the secession of the outlying provinces Glacierheart and Thesmer.

I'm interested to see how the ending will effect the church.
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Re: TFT *SPOILERS* thoughts, discussions, and future specula
Post by PeterZ   » Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:11 pm

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ywing14 wrote:
There are a lot more posts between this one and when I am posting now so there may have been things that could be addressed.

But South Harchong has access to the North already that's how they were able to ship the guns in that were used against the Valley.

I don't believe Dohlar can outright intervene in the Republic without the secession of the outlying provinces Glacierheart and Thesmer.

I'm interested to see how the ending will effect the church.

South Harchong can't invade. If they build a navy, the best they can hope for is one powerful enough to achieve limited objectives against a very distracted ICA. The South can smuggle arms into the North, but nothing too heavy or in quantities too large. Absent a much greater amount of support, North Harchong will be consolidated under East Harchong and the United Provinces.

Assuming the visitation is authentic, the CoGA will face massive upheaval. The degree of fallibility exhibited by archangels will severely undercut the primacy of their legacy in religious matters. Why should anyone accord infallibility to the Grand Vicar even if he is speaking in accord with the Writ? Even if Schueler is believed in this case, how much of his words can be believed if even unfallen archangels lie? Those sorts of doubts will exaggerate any disagreement into potential schisms. I'm thinking we'll see multiple church hierarchies butting their noses into all sorts of places their schismatic doctrines lead.
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Re: TFT *SPOILERS* thoughts, discussions, and future specula
Post by PeterZ   » Sun Jan 13, 2019 9:42 pm

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I recall mention that the first batch of nannites received by one of the Cayleb's and Sharley's sons was tweaked somehow. I don't recall how. My thought is about the sorts of tweaks nannites are capable of. Are there military upgrades that give greater strength and quicker reflexes in addition to better healing?

Specifically, give Stefyny Athrawes an upgraded set. She seems a tough minded sort unafraid to stand in the Devil's face to defend those she loves. Those sorts of upgrades would allow more seijins to operate moving forward. The Good Lord knows this next story arc will have problem areas spread all over Safehold. Two PICAs are just not enough.

I can also see Irys and Hektor being stationed elsewhere since Daivyn is married and is old enough to join the IC. Whether they start the new IC colony in the Barren Lands or as Ambassadors to Dohlar is open to discussion. Likely Irys will be the Ambassador while Hektor commands a squadron of cruisers or one of their about to be announced true battleships. That the ICN will lay one down is pretty obvious given the turmoil Schueler's visit will spark.
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Re: TFT *SPOILERS* thoughts, discussions, and future specula
Post by lyonheart   » Tue Jan 15, 2019 8:36 am

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Hi Dilandu,

Actually it was Lenin himself who said in 1914 that Russia was improving so much so fast that in 5 years the communist 'opportunity' would evaporate.

Then WWI happened and all the European working classes went happily off to war with each other, often singing hymns.

Then don't ignore Lenin's NEP or New Economic Policy which was free enterprise, at least at the small business level that allowed the country to recover somewhat from the stupidity of socialism.

Socialism doesn't work because it denies the inner spirit or soul of the individual , NTM the whole of humanity, in trying to hammer it to fit its stupid economic ideology, which has never worked and never will.

Dilandu wrote:
PeterZ wrote:Russia was an economic basket case before they became the USSR. They would have been better off liberalizing their economy and government instead of doubling down on centralized control.


Its a myth, unfortunately. The reality was much more grim. Russian Empire was incredibly backward by European standards, in some areas it was even behind the Spain (!!!). The government was corrupt, backward and incompetent, the population was dirt-poor and illiterate, the national business was weak and most of industry belonged to foreign corporations. And, sorry, but in real world there were no "enlightened, benevolent" capitalists around. The British and French capitalists were perfectly fine in squeezing Russia dry without any thinking about its interests.

Without some kind of rigid central control over economics, we simply would never be able to pull out of all this mess. Communists were simply the best out of worst solutions, but only the worst solutions were available.


Had Patton been allowed to continue Eastward at the tail end of WWII, he would have destroyed the USSR forces west of Russia propper.



I'm sorry PeterZ, but I've had to correct this silly notion many times. One of the earliest times was when I was in high school, with a retired USAF sergeant who thought the AF could have nuked the soviets along with usual 1000 heavy bomber raids and thousands of fighter bombers etc, claiming the Russians didn't have anything to compare to American aircraft. Despite his 20 years of service etc he was ignorant of the Yak-9 among other things, which one of my too simplistic junior high library books had pointed out the Free French pilots who flew a wing of them compared it very favorably to the FW-190, which France continued to produce after the war.

When I was 7, I discovered Avalon Hills' Stalingrad war game at a local toy department store and convinced my mother to buy it.
My father was very impressed with it, including the detail of all the unit designations, supply and weather factors etc.
Though it's rated for 12 years and up, I learned how to play it pretty well when I was ten. Avalon Hills' The Russian Campaign game in the '80's added some extras, but I still have my original copy along with a newer one in much better condition. :)
The important thing I learned early on was war was far more complicated than I'd previously thought, although I'd already dismissed most war movies as too simplistic to be taken seriously.

At the same time, my then favorite toy and model tank was the Josef Stalin mark III, with its beetle-like shape, it's 122 mm gun, etc. I didn't find out its limitations until years later, but my father who was commissioned an officer in the US Army at the end of January 1942 (his ROTC class was accelerated 4 monthes after PH) and actively served for 30 and a half years, made sure I understood the Russians made some pretty good things and were very serious students of war. The JS III's appearance at the July Berlin victory parade had all sorts of strategic and political effects, but don't forget what a handicap Montgomery would have been; ie being seriously outnumbered for the first time would have made him very leery at the best of times, NTM the Labor/socialist parliamentary victory/government. He and Britain would have totally opposed any such adventure which would have put the ca-bosh on the very idea of any US assault on the Soviet Union without any allies, NTM all the soviet agents in Washington DC and the country at large.

Besides, the soviet/Russian willingness to spend millions of lives to achieve sometimes ludicrous goals besides excellent strategic ones, could have easily swamped the US Army then in Europe, if the communist supported campaign hadn't already been screaming to bring the boys home ASAP.

[/quote]

:lol: :lol: :lol:

Seriously... it just laughable. Not only the US forces in Europe were vastly numerically inferior to Soviet, but there were no US general with strategical experience & competence of Soviet military leaders by 1945.

[/quote]
You don't mention Stalin's dismissal, betrayal and even murder of so many of the best soviet generals before and after the war, just like Saddam Hussein, who again only followed Stalin's footsteps.
[/quote]

I respect Allied military command greatly, but truth is, their strategical solutions were primitive by the Eastern Fronts standards. They never launched any operation on the scale of "Bagration", never ever tried to command such enormous number of troops simultaneously. It wasn't their fault, it was simply the lack of experience. Before 1944, Allies never deployed such large number of troops on such great frontlines. USSR done this routinely, and Soviet strategical solutions - like refined "Deep operation" conception - was much more advanced than anything Allies have in pockets.

[/quote]
Please, given the smaller scale of the western European theater, they did well (if not very ;), and the American battle death's was only ~2.5-3% or less of Russia's, NTM Zhukov's explanation of how the soviet army cleared minefields being totally unacceptable to any western democracy, nor a casualty/death rate of 25-30% of the whole soviet army be anything western generals would consider smart.

P.S. Of course, in case of prolonged conflict, the USSR in 1945 was doomed. It simply was too exhausted to fight anymore, have no resources for prolonged fight against USA. But it would not save the US armies in Europe from quick destruction.[/quote]

[/quote]
Yes, assuming assuming the US somehow had had the political will to nuke/bomb soviet war production, and accept heavy B-29 losses to Soviet AF rammers (something they'd been doing since 1941), the US could have ground the soviets down, but at what cost and for punishment of what kind of crime against the US?

Those were certainly interesting times.

What RFC has in mind for Safehold will be very fascinating of course.


L
Last edited by lyonheart on Tue Jan 15, 2019 10:24 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: TFT *SPOILERS* thoughts, discussions, and future specula
Post by lyonheart   » Tue Jan 15, 2019 8:49 am

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Dilandu wrote:
isaac_newton wrote:what does sort of suprise me has been the 'apparent' absence of people who likely to be strongly/vocally pro Charis - e.g all those saved from the camps or saved at the last minute from the COGA army breakthrus or saved by the food shipments.


Please. The nations have short memory. In 1944-1945 Soviet Army liberated millions of Polish and Czech peoples from Nazi camps - and how fast they started to grumble about "soviet occupation" afterward?


Perhaps because they have such wonderful memories of the Katyn forest and other examples of soviet 'liberation' too numerous to mention.

Show me where Poland ever made such massacres SOP that routine in the soviet union, NTM against even their own people let alone starving millions of Ukrainians, Kazakhs, etc; or the tens of millions killed in the gulags or were they a myth too?.

Nekulturney! Although I learned it as nye kulturny. ;)

L
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Re: TFT *SPOILERS* thoughts, discussions, and future specula
Post by lyonheart   » Tue Jan 15, 2019 9:48 am

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Dilandu wrote:
PeterZ wrote:
I'll agree that there was too little modern foundation with which to build a western styled economy in Russia at that time. Communism may well have been necessary to bypass the corrupt oligarchy that would have replaced Imperial Russia. I suspect that replacing the dispersed corrupt oligarchs would have been easier that a strong centralized autocracy. Making gradual changes to the laws constraining those oligarchs would have led to both a quicker transition into modernity and far fewer deaths. Centralized control has now given your oligarchs the precidence of complete autocracy to pursue their corrupt goals.


Lets agreed that communism most clearly arent the universal solution, but at right time & right place it could work pretty well, at least in short therms.

This is another excellent example of the difference between western civilization and what passes for Russian regarding the value of human life.

If mass murder of 30 million people, including true party members Stalin didn't like, maybe because they were smarter or better informed, is so acceptable to you, you have a rather twisted sense of right and wrong.

Whether Patton could have won or not in 1945 may well be fun to argue. I'll concede to your position there as well as the ultimate inability for the 1945 USSR to win a war against the West.


Well, this inability is pretty obvious. And about strategical level - just compare the Ardennes offensive with Balaton battle. In both case Germany attempted a major offensive, using the remaining armored forces, but while in Ardennes they were able to move quite a lot initially, in case of Balaton operation they didn't even manage to break through our defense lines! And while Patton wasnt exactly completely sucsessfull in encircling the enemy troops, Tolbukhin and Malinovsky immediately launched a massive advance on Vienna, and completely crushed the opposing German force.



Again you're being rather simplistic; the US Army didn't collapse and run the way so many French, British, Russian, German and Italian armies did when the enemy made a breakthrough etc.
While some surprised local units retreated at Kasserine Pass, the flanks held firm, the hole was quickly plugged and it availed Rommel little, having to retreat or be cutoff within two weeks besides costing him his reserve armor etc, that is any further maneuver opportunity.

The collapse Hitler hoped for in the Battle of the Bulge never happened, despite all the mistakes Eisenhower, Churchill and FDR made.

Rather the very green American units did far better than many veteran British and Russian ones, and you know it.

My uncle was in the Tank Destroyer battalion of the 106th, which was fighting 3 panzer divisions at one time, and did pretty well for a while, a record matched by very few even veteran divisions.

Unfortunately, the divisions on its flanks had broken, and the division CO discovered too late why he was ordered to retreat, and lost two of the three infantry regiments.
They were just one of the largest surrenders in the history of the US Army, and compares rather well to over 2.5 million soviet soldiers forced to surrender by stupid commissar or officers' orders, tactics and plans etc; and of course the Soviet/Russian blase disregard for human life.

Again, given the American casualty rate versus the German even at the best times for the Germans was pretty respectable, compared to the British or Soviet Army's under similar attack, NTM the Germans failed pretty quickly and suffered accordingly.

Ike and Patton's problem was that he had to put up with Montgomery and his 2nd Army group that was petrified about British casualty rates, though Montgomery's bragging finally almost got him fired, though Ike was too much of a gentleman, unlike Montgomery.

The US Army's screw-ups in WW2 pale by comparison with any other army's, unless you'd like to point out some nation's army that did more and suffered less, and possibly not using any US weapons. ;)

Yes, the Soviet Army had 4 times as many men as the US Army and the combined armed forces were 3 times that of the total US, but suffering 30-35 times as many deaths, or a 25-30% loss rate; that is simply considered lousy by any western nation.

Granted "god is on the side of the bigger battalions", but couldn't the soviets have saved some of those millions if they were really so smart?
But they really didn't care how many they lost, now did they?

Your viewpoint is quite telling, actually.

L
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