Haven Victorious

cthia wrote:

runsforcelery wrote:Um. please do note that I never said Elizabeth disapproved of Saint-Just's summary execution, Nor did I ever say it wasn't absolutely the best thing Tom could have done under the circumstances. On the one hand, Haven did not need yet another "hanging judge" court trial at a time when it was essential to convince the people of Noveau Paris that a stable government was firmly in control and intended to be different from the CPS and SS. And, on the other, Haven didn't need a potential rallying point for StaeSec loyalists in the capital. Saint-Just dead might be a martyr, but he wasn't a leader for resistance to focus upon rescuing/restoring.

What I said is that Elizabeth couldn't know why he'd done it. She was not privy to his logic (if she had been, she would have approved, BTW), and so she was prepared to see it as a good outcome which had probably happened for bad reasons, if you see my point. And it didn't decrease her "confidence" in Tom and Eloise; it simply did exactly zero to increase her confidence for their respect for the rule of law.

Fair enough. Just the admission that Theisman was shot without due process and that Beth was a bit ruffled initially because of it is enough for my argument.

For the record, I approved of Theisman's actions too, as I indicated. I would have liked for Theisman to at least have offered himself up to Eloise to be arrested and had Eloise tell him where to shove it, though. And I suppose it shouldn't surprise me that ultimately Beth would have approved of Theisman's actions, being as you said she would have gladly shot the lot of her own problems if she could have gotten away with it. Go Beth!

BUT! I would have approved of Theisman even more if he'd acted a lot sooner. Saint-Just's regime was murdering officers and families at the whim of a madman and the officers of the RHN just stood idly by and let it happen. Not a single phucking pair of balls existed in their ranks IMO. Until Esther. Esther was the first to show any balls atall of the group that Alfredo and company left behind. Not a single pair hung between 'em. The Committee was murdering innocent civilians!

I would have shot Saint-Just myself! Then gladly offered my wrists up for cuffs.

So Tom should've launched an effort he knew was going to fail, just as a mnatter of principle?

I sorta don't think that's what you're suggesting, but it's what would've happened if he'd tried anything before Saint-Just gave him Capital Fleet and the keys to the kingdom. At absolute best he would have provoked a civil war which would almost certainly have been far worse than the one he actually ended up fighting; at worst (and far more likely) he and any of the "provincial legions" that supported his own fleet's uprising would have been crushed by the combined strength of the loyal naval units (whether cowed by their people's commissioners or out of true loyalty) and SS units. In which case he would have accomplished nothing except to self identify himself and the other units who might be a threat ti the Committee and get them all killed.

BTW, I'm pretty sure you mean the "admission that Saint-Just was shot without due process."

cthia wrote:

runsforcelery wrote:Um. please do note that I never said Elizabeth disapproved of Saint-Just's summary execution, Nor did I ever say it wasn't absolutely the best thing Tom could have done under the circumstances. On the one hand, Haven did not need yet another "hanging judge" court trial at a time when it was essential to convince the people of Noveau Paris that a stable government was firmly in control and intended to be different from the CPS and SS. And, on the other, Haven didn't need a potential rallying point for StaeSec loyalists in the capital. Saint-Just dead might be a martyr, but he wasn't a leader for resistance to focus upon rescuing/restoring.

What I said is that Elizabeth couldn't know why he'd done it. She was not privy to his logic (if she had been, she would have approved, BTW), and so she was prepared to see it as a good outcome which had probably happened for bad reasons, if you see my point. And it didn't decrease her "confidence" in Tom and Eloise; it simply did exactly zero to increase her confidence for their respect for the rule of law.

Fair enough. Just the admission that Theisman was shot without due process and that Beth was a bit ruffled initially because of it is enough for my argument.

For the record, I approved of Theisman's actions too, as I indicated. I would have liked for Theisman to at least have offered himself up to Eloise to be arrested and had Eloise tell him where to shove it, though. And I suppose it shouldn't surprise me that ultimately Beth would have approved of Theisman's actions, being as you said she would have gladly shot the lot of her own problems if she could have gotten away with it. Go Beth!

BUT! I would have approved of Theisman even more if he'd acted a lot sooner. Saint-Just's regime was murdering officers and families at the whim of a madman and the officers of the RHN just stood idly by and let it happen. Not a single phucking pair of balls existed in their ranks IMO. Until Esther. Esther was the first to show any balls atall of the group that Alfredo and company left behind. Not a single pair hung between 'em. The Committee was murdering innocent civilians!

I would have shot Saint-Just myself! Then gladly offered my wrists up for cuffs.

runsforcelery wrote:So Tom should've launched an effort he knew was going to fail, just as a mnatter of principle?

I sorta don't think that's what you're suggesting, but it's what would've happened if he'd tried anything before Saint-Just gave him Capital Fleet and the keys to the kingdom. At absolute best he would have provoked a civil war which would almost certainly have been far worse than the one he actually ended up fighting; at worst (and far more likely) he and any of the "provincial legions" that supported his own fleet's uprising would have been crushed by the combined strength of the loyal naval units (whether cowed by their people's commissioners or out of true loyalty) and SS units. In which case he would have accomplished nothing except to self identify himself and the other units who might be a threat ti the Committee and get them all killed.

BTW, I'm pretty sure you mean the "admission that Saint-Just was shot without due process."

Drats! The same sorta mistake twice. I've seen little sleep for the last several days. Plus I'm excited about certain manna you've served up during the Christmas hollies. And the fact that many of my posts are severely bloated before posting. Aggressive cutting & pasting in one place demands a verb or subject change elsewhere that I oftentimes miss. But enough about my present lack of sleep and a secretary while operating machinery during a drive-by. LOL

But yea, how difficult is it to get in to see Saint-Just and then just plain old shoot him? I can't believe that any resulting civil war would have been any worst off than what actually transpired. And I can see a whole lot of things that may have gone a heck of a lot better. Namely, salvaging so much Peep experience that was simply wasted at the cost of the war. It was like Saint-Just was a Manty in disguise. If ever the old adage "A house divided cannot stand" rang true, it did during Saint-Just's reign. Giscard may have still been alive and Alfredo Yu and Co., wouldn't have had to turn treasonous.

Anyway, all the plans that were finally considered to "get Saint-Just" were all elaborate schemes that could be seen a mile away, and of course would fail. What was needed was a single individual to grow a pair and take matters into his own hands. Like what Theisman ended up doing anyway. Get close enough to stab that rat-bastard SOB in the eye with a pencil if need be! It may have amounted to a suicide mission early on, but hey, "For God and country I die."

Heck, if the men had no testicles, they should have consulted with Shannon. She could play the "Let's disappear some people and personnel" game a lot better than Saint-Just could.

cthia wrote:But yea, how difficult is it to get in to see Saint-Just and then just plain old shoot him? I can't believe that any resulting civil war would have been any worst off than what actually transpired. And I can see a whole lot of things that may have gone a heck of a lot better. Namely, salvaging so much Peep experience that was simply wasted at the cost of the war. It was like Saint-Just was a Manty in disguise. If ever the old adage "A house divided cannot stand" rang true, it did during Saint-Just's reign. Giscard may have still been alive and Alfredo Yu and Co., wouldn't have had to turn treasonous.

The problem you do not mention is that without control of the capitol fleet, and so the capitol, simply killing Saint Just leaves State Sec in control and hating the Navy even more.
PS. Wasn't Yu forced to turn "treasonous" as a result of HotQ, which was long before Pierre and Saint Just gained power? Also Caslet was forced to turn "treasonous" by Cordelia Ransom, which was also before Saint Just's reign.

GregD wrote:What's in it for Haven?

1: Grayson's providing a significant portion of the Alliance military. Manticore would be hurting if it started fighting again without that support.

Maybe if this happens after Haven announces the existence of their SD(P)s. But there were many years after the ceasefire when Manticore's 8th fleet was more than capable of single-handedly destroying the entire People's Republic Navy. So loss of Grayson firepower would not convince High Ridge to capitulate -- he doesn't think he needs their military because Haven lacks the MDMs or podlayers necessary to stand up to the RMN.

GregD wrote:2: The likelihood of the House of Lords NOT approving a reasonable Peace Treaty, one that all their allies, including that "Grayson warmongers", have approved, is pretty much zero.

Seriously? If the gov't refused the Treaty, and the Lords went along with them, then the people paying all those high wartime taxes would start lynching members of the House of Lords until they were left with a more reasonable body.

Hell, they wouldn't have to do that. They'd just start challenging them to duels. Starting with parents who have kids in the military, kids who could end up dying in pointless battles with Haven because those vicious weasels in the Lords want their power, even at the pointless cost of their kids lives.

Re-read AoV, and the civilian disaffection with the war. The High Ridge government was able to draw things out by keeping all the negotiations secret. Blowing up the secrecy takes that option away

Maybe. But it's just as likely to blow up in the rest of the Allie's faces when a pissed off High Ridge claims they can't possible negotiate with, or trust a treaty from, Haven after they've "gone behind Manticore's backs" and "lured our valuable allies into abandoning us"

Plus Haven's taking a heck of a gamble because if Manticore doesn't agree Haven's got nothing left to negotiate with

Jonathan_S wrote: But it's just as likely to blow up in the rest of the Allie's faces when a pissed off High Ridge claims they can't possible negotiate with, or trust a treaty from, Haven after they've "gone behind Manticore's backs" and "lured our valuable allies into abandoning us"

Plus Haven's taking a heck of a gamble because if Manticore doesn't agree Haven's got nothing left to negotiate with

When they lose Trevor’s star etc due to their going to war without their allies it will be a bad day.

cthia wrote:But yea, how difficult is it to get in to see Saint-Just and then just plain old shoot him? I can't believe that any resulting civil war would have been any worst off than what actually transpired. And I can see a whole lot of things that may have gone a heck of a lot better.

I'd say extremely difficult. Saint-Just was a paranoid guy running a governmental security service that's providing (among many other things) the equivalent of the Secret Service. An armed naval officer isn't going to be allowed anywhere near him - and attempting to launch a surprise orbital assault to take him out is a lot harder before his detonation of a nuke under the Octogon both guts the command and control of the local AA defenses and his clear indications that he's about to launch renewed purges against the Navy turns what's left of the Capital Fleet against him.
Chances that an officer like Theisman who wasn't assigned to Nouveau Paris successfully going there and getting armed into Saint-Just's presence is just about 0.

Plus Theisman was already in route to Nouveau Paris, recalled by Saint-Just, before McQueen's abortive coupe attempt caused Rob Pierre's death. Killing Saint-Just while Rob was still alive would hardly decapitate the Peeps. And Theisman did kill Saint-Just almost as soon as he arrived and was put in command of Capital Fleet.

NortonIDaughter wrote:
That *is* evidence, and a lot of it. I would argue that letting systems peacefully leave the Republic was as un-Peeplike a thing as could be managed. And again, all of this happened before (in some cases, a year or more a least) before WoH opens.

And clearly at least one star nation that lost and suffered at Peep hands *did* consider that evidence, and find it convincing.

They also fought a multi-sided civil war to keep some member systems from leaving.

Sure those were ones they felt were militarily dangerous and being ruled dictatorially by fragments of the former regime and/or renegade parts of the navy, but still it wasn't all peacefully letting systems go. Viewed from the outside there's still reason to be suspicious.


You could potentially look at what they did as shedding the dead-weight -- system's the Peeps had looted and screwed up so badly that they were better off without them -- which fighting tooth an nail to hang onto any valuable system. We, having a more objective view behind the curtain know that isn't the case, but it would be hard for government to know why Haven is fighting for some systems and letting others go.

So, even to whatever extent Elizabeth trusting Haven might have driven her diplomatic moves, it's not clear she could have seen their actions vis-a-vis their planets as strong evidence that the tiger had changed its stripes.

Jonathan_S wrote:

cthia wrote:But yea, how difficult is it to get in to see Saint-Just and then just plain old shoot him? I can't believe that any resulting civil war would have been any worst off than what actually transpired. And I can see a whole lot of things that may have gone a heck of a lot better.

I'd say extremely difficult. Saint-Just was a paranoid guy running a governmental security service that's providing (among many other things) the equivalent of the Secret Service. An armed naval officer isn't going to be allowed anywhere near him - and attempting to launch a surprise orbital assault to take him out is a lot harder before his detonation of a nuke under the Octogon both guts the command and control of the local AA defenses and his clear indications that he's about to launch renewed purges against the Navy turns what's left of the Capital Fleet against him.
Chances that an officer like Theisman who wasn't assigned to Nouveau Paris successfully going there and getting armed into Saint-Just's presence is just about 0.

Plus Theisman was already in route to Nouveau Paris, recalled by Saint-Just, before McQueen's abortive coupe attempt caused Rob Pierre's death. Killing Saint-Just while Rob was still alive would hardly decapitate the Peeps. And Theisman did kill Saint-Just almost as soon as he arrived and was put in command of Capital Fleet.

There was a 5 month delay between Theisman taking command of Capitol Fleet and shooting St. Just. It's not explicitly shown from the Peep side but the entire length of the Buttercup campaign happened with Theisman in command of Capitol Fleet.

I do wonder how willing Theisman would have been to use the nuclear (or rather, kinetic) option if a more traditional assault would have been impossible. No matter how paranoid StateSec was they couldn't have entirely locked down the weapons of Capitol Fleet to the point of being able to intervene between a KEW being released and the warhead's wedge activating.

(And a side question as to how well protected Mount Royal is against someone getting a KEW overhead. Surely they must have considered the possibility, but how do you defend against it?)

Galactic Sapper wrote:
(And a side question as to how well protected Mount Royal is against someone getting a KEW overhead. Surely they must have considered the possibility, but how do you defend against it?)

We know Mount Royal has weapons able to battle with the orbitals - one was used to take out debris headed towards landing from the OB strike. One wcould be used to keep someone from being overhead to launch a KEW, or to engage a slower moving object from further out. We've seen atmospheric sidewalls before (at the Attica avalanche), chances are Mount Royal has some as well.

Theemile wrote:

Galactic Sapper wrote:
(And a side question as to how well protected Mount Royal is against someone getting a KEW overhead. Surely they must have considered the possibility, but how do you defend against it?)

We know Mount Royal has weapons able to battle with the orbitals - one was used to take out debris headed towards landing from the OB strike. One wcould be used to keep someone from being overhead to launch a KEW, or to engage a slower moving object from further out. We've seen atmospheric sidewalls before (at the Attica avalanche), chances are Mount Royal has some as well.

True, but we also saw how long they take to spin up to effective power. If I've done the math correctly it takes a SLN KEW about 6.5 seconds at (assumed) 10k gees to reach the velocity required for a megaton kinetic strike. The velocity attained means that the KEW would only be at terminal velocity for a few seconds max (depends on orbital height), so the defenses would have at most 9-10 seconds from activation to impact.

Numbers:
200 kg impactor
1,000,000 m/s^2 acceleration
~21,000 km needed to accelerate
~6.468 seconds needed to accelerate
6,468.380 km/s terminal velocity
35,000 km altitude orbit (appx Earth geosynchronous)

The only thing I can think of that could possibly defend against that is an automated counter missile battery.