Haven Victorious

runsforcelery wrote:Would a treaty negotiated by an Alexander government have been as beneficial for both sides, even with treecat intervention, as what finally emerged as the Grand Alliance? Almost certainly not. But the delay in negotiations had nothing at all to do with Elizabeth. It was solely the fault of High Ridge and his allies, and she would cheerfully have shot the lot of them herself if she could have gotten away with it!

GregD wrote:I've always found that hard to believe.

Elizabeth could have colluded with Benjamin, and HE could have sent "Steadholder Harrington" off to negotiate a peace treaty with Haven at any time.

And if Harrington had come back with an acceptable treaty, endorsed by Grayson, and presented it to the House of Lords with Elizabeth's backing, the war would have ended, High Ridge would have lost his war taxes, and they'ed have been forced to hold an election (which would have let in a bunch of new members of the House of Lords, none of whom had anything positive to say about High Ridge).

Crown Loyalists plus Centrists plus Liberals would have been enough to accept a worthwhile Peace Treaty, and there's no way the Liberals could have held on to their self regard while rejecting a valid PT.

tlb wrote:I am not sure that is correct: to begin with the sticking points were between Haven and Manticore, so it is hard to see that they could first be negotiated between Grayson and Haven, and second that the ruling coalition would have accepted anything binding Manticore from a negotiation between Grayson and Haven.
Basically the ruling coalition, including the Liberals, would claim that this was not a valid Peace Treaty as far as Manticore was concerned. They have too much invested in the current stalemate to allow themselves to be flanked in the way you suggest..

Besides which, an end run like that could set a precedent that Elizabeth was unwilling to have the crown live with - although beneficial in the moment, Elizabeth is well aware of "The Law of Unintended Consequences", as was almost certainly not willing to risk it, given what she knew at the time.

fallsfromtrees wrote:

runsforcelery wrote:Would a treaty negotiated by an Alexander government have been as beneficial for both sides, even with treecat intervention, as what finally emerged as the Grand Alliance? Almost certainly not. But the delay in negotiations had nothing at all to do with Elizabeth. It was solely the fault of High Ridge and his allies, and she would cheerfully have shot the lot of them herself if she could have gotten away with it!

GregD wrote:I've always found that hard to believe.

Elizabeth could have colluded with Benjamin, and HE could have sent "Steadholder Harrington" off to negotiate a peace treaty with Haven at any time.

And if Harrington had come back with an acceptable treaty, endorsed by Grayson, and presented it to the House of Lords with Elizabeth's backing, the war would have ended, High Ridge would have lost his war taxes, and they'ed have been forced to hold an election (which would have let in a bunch of new members of the House of Lords, none of whom had anything positive to say about High Ridge).

Crown Loyalists plus Centrists plus Liberals would have been enough to accept a worthwhile Peace Treaty, and there's no way the Liberals could have held on to their self regard while rejecting a valid PT.

tlb wrote:I am not sure that is correct: to begin with the sticking points were between Haven and Manticore, so it is hard to see that they could first be negotiated between Grayson and Haven, and second that the ruling coalition would have accepted anything binding Manticore from a negotiation between Grayson and Haven.

Basically the ruling coalition, including the Liberals, would claim that this was not a valid Peace Treaty as far as Manticore was concerned. They have too much invested in the current stalemate to allow themselves to be flanked in the way you suggest..

Besides which, an end run like that could set a precedent that Elizabeth was unwilling to have the crown live with - although beneficial in the moment, Elizabeth is well aware of "The Law of Unintended Consequences", as was almost certainly not willing to risk it, given what she knew at the time.

I was going to respond to you about this directl, GregD, but fallsfromtrees (and I have got top speak to your treecats about that name) and tlb have already made the two crucial points for me. Especially tlb's, in many ways. The Wintons have always taken the Long View, and Elizabeth is acutely sensitive to things like that.

In addition, remember that so far as Elizabeth knew, the damage High Ridge was doing was containable on an interstellar basis. The war was won. Everybody Knew That.™ So while she hated the consequences to the Manticoran Alliance, she was prepared to play a waiting game until High Ridge had to call another general election (at which time the balance in the House of Lords would shift strongly in the Crown's favor) or until he stubbed his toe and some of his allies deserted his coalition. For example, until the Liberals grew a spine to go with their espoused principles or Elaine Descroix got around to naming her price (Elizabeth had no way of knowing that she was actually already bought off by the Alignment). She certainly had no way of knowing about the games Giancola was playing with the diplomatic correspondence.

My point is that the issues upon which she was most tightly focused where the High Ridge Government was concerned were domestic, and she was not about to destabilize her domestic politics by signing off on a "rogue" diplomatic mission which could be seen only (and perfectly accurately) as a bid on her part to circumvent the will of Parliament when she was engaged upon a campaign that ultimately was going to substantially alter the balance of power in Parliament in favor of the Commons at the expense of the Peers, who were the source of the problem.

There was myopia involved here on Elizabeth's part, and a part of that myopia stemmed from the fact that she, too, shared some of the Manticoran hubris about the SKM's tactical supremacy and the "safety bubble" it created around the clearly defeated Republic of Haven.

And, just as an aside, the way that the Manties' hubris bit them on the butt where the Havenites were concerned is one reason they were acutely aware of the fact that their technological superiority over the Solarian League was absolutely decisive . . . but at best transitory, which played an enormous part in shaping the Grand Alliance's strategy.

And that myopia, honestly, is the one thing I will always fault Elizabeth for-- forget all the other charges people throw at her; the one truly unforgivable mistake she makes is here. Forget High Ridge and the politics and the tech and all the rest; she had one thing that should have been her concern above all others, and she blew it.

Why TF! did she not send a treecat to Haven?!

I cannot think of a single thing that should have been more important to her than getting the truth on who these people were.

Tech edge or no, treaty or no, finding out if Tom and Eloise were decent human beings or St Just reincarnated should have been her absolute top priority. And with the example of the Stein funeral incident, as well as all that talk in WoH about how hard she worked to keep the Alliance together, there's no way it was impossible for her to get *someone* with a treecat to go on a courtesy visit to Haven. The books make the point several times that the royal family and various other entities took the 'cats opinions very seriously well before they could sign; at the opening of WoH they've been doing so for years. She had the opportunity.

I absolutely cannot believe she was this negligent in her duties as Queen.

I won't argue that it would have prevented the war (after all, Tom and Eloise launched it), although depending on how much time said treecat(s) and their people spent with the Havenites and/or Giancola, any number of things could have gone differently. But it would have made a difference to the ridiculous "circumstantial evidence is all we need" conclusion about who adjusted Tim Meares, and may well have made a difference in how Elizabeth dealt with the summit.

Even if it changed absolutely nothing, at least Elizabeth would have done her due diligence.










(As a completely separate note, does anyone else think Beth's mistake with the summit was not hating Haven *enough*? Seriously, you think they killed a bunch of people to make you call off the summit, so you... do exactly what you think they want? No! The proper response to "oh, you don't want to meet me and my mind-reading treecat" is not "ok, guess I'll stay home". It is "Screw you, Peep! You WILL be meeting with me, and btw, let me introduce you to the FORTY-SEVEN ANGRY MIND-READING TREECATS that I brought with me. Better talk fast!" )

NortonIDaughter wrote:And that myopia, honestly, is the one thing I will always fault Elizabeth for-- forget all the other charges people throw at her; the one truly unforgivable mistake she makes is here. Forget High Ridge and the politics and the tech and all the rest; she had one thing that should have been her concern above all others, and she blew it.

Why TF! did she not send a treecat to Haven?!

I cannot think of a single thing that should have been more important to her than getting the truth on who these people were.

Tech edge or no, treaty or no, finding out if Tom and Eloise were decent human beings or St Just reincarnated should have been her absolute top priority. And with the example of the Stein funeral incident, as well as all that talk in WoH about how hard she worked to keep the Alliance together, there's no way it was impossible for her to get *someone* with a treecat to go on a courtesy visit to Haven. The books make the point several times that the royal family and various other entities took the 'cats opinions very seriously well before they could sign; at the opening of WoH they've been doing so for years. She had the opportunity.

I absolutely cannot believe she was this negligent in her duties as Queen.

I won't argue that it would have prevented the war (after all, Tom and Eloise launched it), although depending on how much time said treecat(s) and their people spent with the Havenites and/or Giancola, any number of things could have gone differently. But it would have made a difference to the ridiculous "circumstantial evidence is all we need" conclusion about who adjusted Tim Meares, and may well have made a difference in how Elizabeth dealt with the summit.

Even if it changed absolutely nothing, at least Elizabeth would have done her due diligence.










(As a completely separate note, does anyone else think Beth's mistake with the summit was not hating Haven *enough*? Seriously, you think they killed a bunch of people to make you call off the summit, so you... do exactly what you think they want? No! The proper response to "oh, you don't want to meet me and my mind-reading treecat" is not "ok, guess I'll stay home". It is "Screw you, Peep! You WILL be meeting with me, and btw, let me introduce you to the FORTY-SEVEN ANGRY MIND-READING TREECATS that I brought with me. Better talk fast!" )

I strongly dispute the charge of negligence, but that may be because I am so far inside her head.

Bottom line, she owed Haven nothing. Not one single damned thing. As a star nation, they had been conquering everything in sight from well before her birth. They'd started --- and continued --- a war which had killed hundreds of thousands of her military. They'd assassinated her father. They'd assassinated her prime minister/second father, her uncle, and her cousin and tried to assassinate her. The yardstick of Havenite foreign policy for decades had been duplicity, machination, and betrayal. So they'd finally had another coup? Well, good for them. They'd had them before, and nothing had changed. She'd agreed to meet with them and their response was to murder her ambassador to the SL and do their dead level best to murder her niece, as well, after launching a war (with a surprise attack) in which they had systematically lied about the preceding diplomatic correspondence. (she knew they had; she didn't trust High Ridge a single centimeter, but she'd read the originals).

Prior to Thunderbolt she was focused on domestic issues in no small part because she was reading the diplomatic traffic. She knew High Ridge was sparring for time, deliberately drawing them out for domestic advantage, but there was exactly zero in the Manty end of the correspondence to indicate a rupture was imminent. So she could afford to worry about the domestic issues --- which would have an impact on the very structure of the SKM's government for decades or even centuries going forward --- because nothing was burning down on the interstellar front and if the Havenites were getting their itty-bitty feelings hurt, so what? They were fricking Peeps, whatever they called themselves, and she'd seen precious little evidence that the multi-sided civil war was anything but another power struggle between ruthless criminal factions masquerading as a star nation.

So then they launch a war after lying about the correspondence. And when it starts going badly for them, they talk about "peace negotiations." She agrees . . . and they murder a bunch more of her people. Does she know why? No. She has a theory, but she doesn't know. As you suggest, she might have taken her treecats with her to assess the honesty of the other side and gone to Torch anyway, but then again, Eloise could've sent her a message that said "We've both been played by my crooked Secretary of State, and I am so sorry for having restarted the war on the basis of his lies. Can I come directly to Manticore to talk to you about this?"

My point is that taking a treecat to Torch wasn't her job. Not anymore. Her job was to finish the damned Peeps once and for all so this kind of crap never happened again. After spending her entire adult lifetime fighting these people, after having them resume the war on the basis of forged diplomatic correspondence -- something exactly out of the Legislaturalist playbook --- and seen the peace talks they'd proposed disurpted by a wave of assassinations --- something exactly out of the Committee of Public Safety's playbook --- she knew exactly what the one sure-and-certain way to end this crap forever was, and that was what she owed her kingdom, herself, and her own dead. After seventy odd years of cold war and watching people die for her and their star nation for twenty-plus years of hot war, it was entirely reasonable for her to have reached the end of the road where "reaching out" to the enemy was concerned.

Your suggestion that it was her job to step beyond that is, I think, unfair. It was her opportunity to step beyond it; it was not her responsibility to do so.

To be honest, she could not have been the wartime monarch she'd been --- or be so successful at it --- without having developed almost exactly that attitude. What "she ought to have done" may be obvious to us, looking in from the outside; it was not (and could not be) obvious to her looking out from the inside.

Nor did Eloise and Tom have to launch their all out assault on Manticore when she called off the negotiations. They had an opportunity to say: "Well, we're sorry you feel that way, but we're still not going to shoot at you and we really hope you'll change your mind." Remember that one of their alternatives would have been to take no offensive action and agree to negotiate the instant 8th Fleet arrived in the Haven System. They didn't because they, too, were fallible humans with limited information and they took what they believed was the only option available to them.

runsforcelery wrote:

GregD wrote:I've always found that hard to believe.

Elizabeth could have colluded with Benjamin, and HE could have sent "Steadholder Harrington" off to negotiate a peace treaty with Haven at any time.

And if Harrington had come back with an acceptable treaty, endorsed by Grayson, and presented it to the House of Lords with Elizabeth's backing, the war would have ended, High Ridge would have lost his war taxes, and they'ed have been forced to hold an election (which would have let in a bunch of new members of the House of Lords, none of whom had anything positive to say about High Ridge).

Crown Loyalists plus Centrists plus Liberals would have been enough to accept a worthwhile Peace Treaty, and there's no way the Liberals could have held on to their self regard while rejecting a valid PT.

tlb wrote:I am not sure that is correct: to begin with the sticking points were between Haven and Manticore, so it is hard to see that they could first be negotiated between Grayson and Haven, and second that the ruling coalition would have accepted anything binding Manticore from a negotiation between Grayson and Haven.

Basically the ruling coalition, including the Liberals, would claim that this was not a valid Peace Treaty as far as Manticore was concerned. They have too much invested in the current stalemate to allow themselves to be flanked in the way you suggest..

fallsfromtrees wrote:Besides which, an end run like that could set a precedent that Elizabeth was unwilling to have the crown live with - although beneficial in the moment, Elizabeth is well aware of "The Law of Unintended Consequences", as was almost certainly not willing to risk it, given what she knew at the time.

I was going to respond to you about this directly, GregD, but fallsfromtrees (and I have got top speak to your treecats about that name) and tlb have already made the two crucial points for me. Especially tlb's, in many ways. The Wintons have always taken the Long View, and Elizabeth is acutely sensitive to things like that.

In addition, remember that so far as Elizabeth knew, the damage High Ridge was doing was containable on an interstellar basis. The war was won. Everybody Knew That.™ So while she hated the consequences to the Manticoran Alliance, she was prepared to play a waiting game until High Ridge had to call another general election (at which time the balance in the House of Lords would shift strongly in the Crown's favor) or until he stubbed his toe and some of his allies deserted his coalition. For example, until the Liberals grew a spine to go with their espoused principles or Elaine Descroix got around to naming her price (Elizabeth had no way of knowing that she was actually already bought off by the Alignment). She certainly had no way of knowing about the games Giancola was playing with the diplomatic correspondence.

My point is that the issues upon which she was most tightly focused where the High Ridge Government was concerned were domestic, and she was not about to destabilize her domestic politics by signing off on a "rogue" diplomatic mission which could be seen only (and perfectly accurately) as a bid on her part to circumvent the will of Parliament when she was engaged upon a campaign that ultimately was going to substantially alter the balance of power in Parliament in favor of the Commons at the expense of the Peers, who were the source of the problem.

There was myopia involved here on Elizabeth's part, and a part of that myopia stemmed from the fact that she, too, shared some of the Manticoran hubris about the SKM's tactical supremacy and the "safety bubble" it created around the clearly defeated Republic of Haven.

And, just as an aside, the way that the Manties' hubris bit them on the butt where the Havenites were concerned is one reason they were acutely aware of the fact that their technological superiority over the Solarian League was absolutely decisive . . . but at best transitory, which played an enormous part in shaping the Grand Alliance's strategy.

First, let's consider the outlines of a treaty. There's four types of systems that Manticore has conquered:
1: Uninhabited systems with strategic significance that Manticore won't give back
2: Uninhabited systems Manticore's willing to give back once there's no war
3: Inhabited systems Manticore would offer membership to
4: Inhabited systems Manticore does't want

A treaty where Manticore keeps the 1st, gives back the 2nd, the 3rd have a plebiscite with 3 options (perhaps ranked choice voting), & the 4th have a plebiscite with 2 options (stay independent or go back to Haven), plus whatever peace guarantees that Grayson / Harrington need.

Manticore gets sole control over which systems are in group 3, and which are in group 4.

Really? The individual Liberal Peers are going to say "that Harrington, she's such a wimp! We need more security guarantees!"?

That Treaty meets Prichard's obligations, since everyone gets a free vote.

The issue is not "will the Liberal Party leadership want to reject the Treaty?" Of course they will!

The issue is "will enough individual Liberal members be willing to sabotage an obviously fair way to End The War?"

Somewhere in the book, there was discussion about how the Liberal members were willing to look the other way while the High Ridge gov't played diplomatic games. The point of this move is they no longer get to look the other way.


Second, let's look at "long term consequences"

Elizabeth promised her domestic opponents that she would "get them" for pulling this. This gives her a chance to carry out her promise.

Establishing that the Monarch has ways to go around a corrupt government that is screwing over Manticore (and continuing a state of war, with all it's restrictions and taxes, when it isn't needed is most definitely harming Manticore) does not strike me as a long term "bad thing".

As a minimum, IMAO it's something Elizabeth / honor / Hamish should have thought of "on page". Even if just to dismiss it.

GregD wrote:First, let's consider the outlines of a treaty. There's four types of systems that Manticore has conquered:
1: Uninhabited systems with strategic significance that Manticore won't give back
2: Uninhabited systems Manticore's willing to give back once there's no war
3: Inhabited systems Manticore would offer membership to
4: Inhabited systems Manticore does't want

A treaty where Manticore keeps the 1st, gives back the 2nd, the 3rd have a plebiscite with 3 options (perhaps ranked choice voting), & the 4th have a plebiscite with 2 options (stay independent or go back to Haven), plus whatever peace guarantees that Grayson / Harrington need.

Manticore gets sole control over which systems are in group 3, and which are in group 4.

There is one big flaw in your plan right here: how do Honor and Haven get to decide what systems (inhabited or not) that Manticore will want?

fallsfromtrees wrote:

runsforcelery wrote:Would a treaty negotiated by an Alexander government have been as beneficial for both sides, even with treecat intervention, as what finally emerged as the Grand Alliance? Almost certainly not. But the delay in negotiations had nothing at all to do with Elizabeth. It was solely the fault of High Ridge and his allies, and she would cheerfully have shot the lot of them herself if she could have gotten away with it!

GregD wrote:I've always found that hard to believe.

Elizabeth could have colluded with Benjamin, and HE could have sent "Steadholder Harrington" off to negotiate a peace treaty with Haven at any time.

And if Harrington had come back with an acceptable treaty, endorsed by Grayson, and presented it to the House of Lords with Elizabeth's backing, the war would have ended, High Ridge would have lost his war taxes, and they'ed have been forced to hold an election (which would have let in a bunch of new members of the House of Lords, none of whom had anything positive to say about High Ridge).

Crown Loyalists plus Centrists plus Liberals would have been enough to accept a worthwhile Peace Treaty, and there's no way the Liberals could have held on to their self regard while rejecting a valid PT.

tlb wrote:I am not sure that is correct: to begin with the sticking points were between Haven and Manticore, so it is hard to see that they could first be negotiated between Grayson and Haven, and second that the ruling coalition would have accepted anything binding Manticore from a negotiation between Grayson and Haven.
Basically the ruling coalition, including the Liberals, would claim that this was not a valid Peace Treaty as far as Manticore was concerned. They have too much invested in the current stalemate to allow themselves to be flanked in the way you suggest..

Besides which, an end run like that could set a precedent that Elizabeth was unwilling to have the crown live with - although beneficial in the moment, Elizabeth is well aware of "The Law of Unintended Consequences", as was almost certainly not willing to risk it, given what she knew at the time.

I think it would be impractical - for reasons rfc enumerated and some that he didn't - but it would have been karmic justice to send Steadholder Harrington to Haven to negotiate a treaty in the name of every member of the Alliance except Manticore. It would be the mirror image of High Ridge betraying the Alliance by unilaterally accepting St. Just's cease-fire. With the approval of the Crown, the Protector, and the shadow PM, she would have negotiated a treaty that would be in Manticore's best interest as well as everyone else's. Presenting it to the Lords with the ultimatum of "approve this or our allies abandon us" would have toppled High Ridge no matter which option he took. Choosing to approve it would have taken a bit longer but that's about it.

You are apparently missing one of the key points in RFC's response. A private diplomatic mission, no matter how successful, would set a precedent that Elizabeth was NOT willing to set. Although it would undermine the current administration, in her view that administration was not going to last forever, and she didn't want the precedent of independent diplomatic missions - which might well be used to undermine the monarchy and a favourable administration - - it might not happen during her reign, but she wasn't going to saddle Roger with that problem decades or centuries later.

Galactic Sapper wrote: I think it would be impractical - for reasons rfc enumerated and some that he didn't - but it would have been karmic justice to send Steadholder Harrington to Haven to negotiate a treaty in the name of every member of the Alliance except Manticore. It would be the mirror image of High Ridge betraying the Alliance by unilaterally accepting St. Just's cease-fire. With the approval of the Crown, the Protector, and the shadow PM, she would have negotiated a treaty that would be in Manticore's best interest as well as everyone else's. Presenting it to the Lords with the ultimatum of "approve this or our allies abandon us" would have toppled High Ridge no matter which option he took. Choosing to approve it would have taken a bit longer but that's about it.

fallsfromtrees wrote:You are apparently missing one of the key points in RFC's response. A private diplomatic mission, no matter how successful, would set a precedent that Elizabeth was NOT willing to set. Although it would undermine the current administration, in her view that administration was not going to last forever, and she didn't want the precedent of independent diplomatic missions - which might well be used to undermine the monarchy and a favourable administration - - it might not happen during her reign, but she wasn't going to saddle Roger with that problem decades or centuries later.

I think that Galactic Sapper understands your point, as the highlighted line shows; but still advanced something that would not result in a treaty between Haven and Manticore, because it is Manticore that holds the systems that were formerly part of Haven. The point remains that treaties between Haven and any of Manticore's partners do not solve the problems that are just between Haven and Manticore. A treaty between Manticore's partners and Haven is not something that the High Ridge government has to vote on; because it is not binding on Manticore.

Notice that Erewhon did go that route and it changed nothing, except for giving Haven a tech boost. Had Grayson signed a separate treaty then its forces would not have been present to prevent defeat at Trevor's star when hostilities resumed over the lies about the treatment of the occupied systems..

Edit - I see tlb managed to post a lot of this while I was composing this

Galactic Sapper wrote:I think it would be impractical - for reasons rfc enumerated and some that he didn't - but it would have been karmic justice to send Steadholder Harrington to Haven to negotiate a treaty in the name of every member of the Alliance except Manticore. It would be the mirror image of High Ridge betraying the Alliance by unilaterally accepting St. Just's cease-fire. With the approval of the Crown, the Protector, and the shadow PM, she would have negotiated a treaty that would be in Manticore's best interest as well as everyone else's. Presenting it to the Lords with the ultimatum of "approve this or our allies abandon us" would have toppled High Ridge no matter which option he took. Choosing to approve it would have taken a bit longer but that's about it.

It's an amusing concept, but Haven doesn't seem to get much out of this treaty. Sure the other members of the Alliance (OMoA) sign a peace treaty and take their fleets home (though Grayson is the only really significant one there) but Manticore has enough ships and they've rolled out defensive LAC bases during the ceasefire to continue to occupy all those systems with their fleet alone - so Haven doesn't get control of any the systems back.

I guess the OMoA could schedule plebiscites - but they'd be non-binding on Manticore. So if Manticoran domestic politics don't fall into line and sign on to the treaty then Haven has no obvious further things to give up as an incentive to negotiation. And if they resume war, even against just Manticore, just after singing a treaty that probably looks bad for them -- more reminders of how their previous regimes acted. Plus Grayson at least is going to be nervious about sitting on the sidelines after Haven goes on the offensive since they've been a target of their fleets before and if Manticore falls they know they can't stand on their own. So Haven can't even count on a treaty keeping the OMaA neutral should the RHN be ordered to use military force in an attempt to compel Manticore to agree to the treaty.


As far as I can see it's all downside to Haven. (I guess it might make it slightly harder for Manticore to justify a preemptive military decapitation strike - maybe. But don't put anything past a sufficiently panicked High Ridge)