TFLYTSNBN wrote:Just thinking about the economics of the Honorverse. I believe that it was in ON BASILISK STATION, that Weber mentions that Honor Harrington's salary is about $50,000 per year (plus room and board?) and that capitol ship missiles cost $1 million. In later books Weber alludes to an SD(P) costing about as much as its missile load out so a major warship costs $10 billion. We don't have any other data on how much homes, rent, aircars and meals at nice restaurants cost.
IIRC, the population of the Manticore binary system is about 4 billion and Grayson has a population of 3 billion. Manticore might then have a GDP of $200 Trillion. Grayson was poor in HotQ so may be the GDP per capita was only $5,000 and GDP of $15 Trillion with most of that economic output devoted to food production. By AT ALL COSTS Grayson's GDP might be $40 Trillion with agriculture requiring a much smaller percentage.
Assuming Manticore devotes 10% of GDP to the military they have a budget $20 trillion. This will buy 1,000 SD(p)s per year, but the RMN has other expenses.
Grayson might devote 20% of GDP to military for a budget of $8 trillion. Grayson can buy only 400 SD(P)s per year but they too have other expenses.
We are in the ballpark.
Now the Star Empire of Manticore is acquiring extraterritorial possessions in the former Silesia as well as the Talbot quadrant. How many worlds? How many people? How much GDP now? How much GDP after Manticore invests in their infrastructure, education and technology base? How much of a military budget will Manticore have in 20 years?
Grayson has no territorial possessions. However; the GDP per capita will be restored then grow. I predict that the population will also increase as Graysons enjoy being able to procreate without fear of loosing nearly half their children. The gender imbalance will be corrected in 20 years, but in the meantime most Grayson men can afford to have Grayson ideal of 3 wives and get busy. The number of unmarried Grayson women will decrease because they along with available husbands will be wealthier. Expect some Grayson males who are wealthier or more popular to have 6 wives. Many single Grayson women might procreate solo. Total Fertility Rate of Grayson might go from 2.3 children per woman to 3 or even 4. Population could double while GDP per capita increases to near Manticoran levels.
If one assumes that Honor's salary is close enough to the mean for our purposes, then M$50,000 at the SEM's average productivity is the highest reasonable level of average income possible in the Honorverse. Let us further assume that Grayson's initial mean income average for Fringe worlds like those in Talbot...the Quadrant that is as well as Silesia. So, it seems that a reasonable assumption that SEM's mean income outside the old SKM is 10% of the SKM's as of the end of UH. Further assume that Grayson managed to achieve 50% of the SKM's per capita productivity and income as of the end of UH and that pace is achievable by Silesia and the TQ. My calculation requires that the FDI represented by the WHJ fees are invested abroad to reduce inflation to essentially 0.
That suggests that the 50 star systems of the SEM supports a GDP 27 times size of the Old SKM not counting Beowulf and any new Core world members to the SEM. It is very likely that such new members add as much as 10 SKM GDPs. So, somewhere around 40 times the GDP of the SKM.
The size of the RMN can expand to 20 times the current size and the SEM can still reduce the size of the relative cost by 50%. Assuming that a relative cost of 20% more is optimal, then the RMN can expand to 8 times of that in UH. Considering that the RMN has already been patrolling Silesia, the TQ only adds about 3-4 times the volume of space to cover. The extra hulls and personnel can patrol additional GA members in the Verge and ez-protectorates.
