Gordian Protocol Teaser MAJOR spoiler added

cnrd22 wrote:
- Lenin was unquestionably the driving force of the Bolshevik takeover and while the Tsarist empire collapsed due to defeat, nobody knows what would have happened if for example dismissing as highly unlikely the Lenin play to take Russia out of the war (as the Provisional Government dutifully fought on; badly true but not worse than in 1915 say and given Russia's immense population and territorial reserves that was enough), the Germans wouldn't have allowed Lenin to pass through their territories (from Switzerland) and provided him with a lot of money to jump-start the Bolshevik agitation when in Russia - this doesn't mean that Lenin was a German agent as some implied, just that his and Germany's interests were common for a while at least

Dilandu wrote: SNIP

It require an improbable amount of coincidences, which is not impossible, but highly improbable. Basically what you are suggesting the common alternate history problem, known as "hyperdeterminism".

The hyperdeterminism is basically the attempt to claim "except for required changes everything else would went as usual". It's like (for example) author described the world where the American Revolution in XVIII century failed and North America remained British, but in the later half XX century there is a cold war between British Empire,led by Prime Minister John Kennedy, and Soviet Union, led by Nikita Khrushev. Which is very improbable, because with such large divergence point so early, the history of XIX and XX century would be completely changed, the real causes of Cold War and Soviet Union existence would be eliminated, and Khrushev and Kennedy would never actually be born, since the pattern of human interactions would be completely changed.

SNIP.

Dilandu wrote:True, but I must point out, that Bolsheviks weren't actually the most probable candidates of taking power from Provisional Government; the Socialist Revolutionary Party (Eser's) were much more likely candidates. It was basically determined that SOME dictate would replace the Provisional Government - it was simply too weak & incapable to actually control the war-burdened nation in the midst of crisis - but who exactly would do it, was unclear.

cnrd22 wrote:
Also one could say a lot of the same regarding the Weimar Republic as about the Russian Provisional Government and it endured some 24 years, after all, so nothing is really that strongly predetermined imho...

Dilandu wrote:

cnrd22 wrote:
Also one could say a lot of the same regarding the Weimar Republic as about the Russian Provisional Government and it endured some 24 years, after all, so nothing is really that strongly predetermined imho...

If it was actually put in similar conditions as Soviet Russia, it would probably not survive that. Let's not forget, while Germans were "no-goodnik's" of Europe, they weren't as ostracized and feared as Bolsheviks - because they do not represent such a threat to ruling classes as Bolshevik's did. Recall how eager were Britain & France to believe Hitler in 1930s - and how suspicious they were to anything USSR suggested at the same time.

isaac_newton wrote:
As far as I understand, it does seem to mean that any possible combination of events can/will happen in the different universes - so any author can say, 'well I happen to have chosen the universe in which this set of events does occur'... so it's not much use saying this or that historical development is unlikely.

cnrd22 wrote:
No argument here that the situation was different, my point is that unlikely (especially in retrospect) things can happen

and coming back to the Gordian Protocol timeline divergence, I am really excited to read the book especially the more I think and hear about it (so maybe it's still a bit early for May 2019 but I wouldn't mind doing some e-arc begging here...)

Dilandu wrote:Well, since there is Vladivostok, then the divergence point is no further than 1860, when it was founded.

Operation Yellow Brick, the Pacific Allies' invasion of Vladivostok, staged through occupied Japan to meet their Imperial German allies, was brutally interrupted.

As far as I know, the "Yellow" war plans were reserved for China. Russia was labeled as "Green" pre-1904 (and after 1904 weren't in color-coded plans anymore).

In which there was still a Soviet Union.

So the divergence point is no further than 1920s.

to meet their Imperial German allies, was brutally interrupted.

Well... good luck to them) Traversing along the length of Siberia, against the population that is generally as "eager" to greet the invaders as Texans may be... How fast the "Pacific Allies" government collapsed under popular uproar against cold-climate analogue of Vietnam War?

In which the Chinese Communists had succeeded

Then no further than 1927?

Theemile wrote:
"Yellow Brick" could be a random assignation of a name to a operation (but one that is an Author's forshadowing). Frank L Baum's "The Wonderful Wizard of Oz" was printed in 1900, and discusses a schism which tore the world in 2, and allowed a young girl named Dorthy to visit the schism by means of a tornado taking her "over a rainbow". The main road in this reality was one one paved with Yellow Bricks. (This story is well know to Americans (though the nature of the schism is lesser known), but I don't know it's international appeal.)

Randomiser wrote:

cnrd22 wrote:What about something simpler like the USA never entered WW1 on the Entente side (or even allied with Germany for some reason) and after the Brest Litovsk peace, the Germans actually broke through and defeated the French and the English and then turned on the Soviet Union eventually, while the USA (or whoever is meant by the Pacific allies as it may just be only a part of the USA for that matter) turned on Japan as an ally on the Entente?

Apparently, Imperial Germany did better in WW1 than in our timeline, so we need to account for that. The Bolsheviks victory was not a given, but could well have occurred if Imperial Russia got kicked militarily, as in RL. Also not beyond possibility that the Chinese communists attempted to take over in this timeline also some time into the 20th century but were defeated, depending on who was running China at the time.

I wondered about the USA entering WW1 on the wrong side too. I can't think of who else the Pacific Allies might have been. Who else might have had enough clout? An independent Australia, or India? White Russians from the Eastern part of Russia the Soviets don't control? Or maybe the title "Pacific Allies" is one of those historical quirks that doesn't quite mean what the uninitiated think it does?