Haven Victorious

Again, not arguing that Elizabeth is crazy, or that she would not have negotiated earlier on her terms if given the chance. And very explicitly not arguing that Manticore won the war militarily! They definitely did.

My argument was simply that if you consider the Republic's goals in going to war, they accomplished them, and thus achieved the true victory, regardless of the military outcome in this case. (And yes, I am being at least half flippant in this argument.)

Perhaps the phrase "rubbed her face in" is coming across a bit too strong; would anyone argue that she didn't need the difference between the restored Republic and PRH "demonstrated" or "proved" before she was willing to trust them, and *want* to ally with them? I think not.

NortonIDaughter wrote:Again, not arguing that Elizabeth is crazy, or that she would not have negotiated earlier on her terms if given the chance. And very explicitly not arguing that Manticore won the war militarily! They definitely did.

My argument was simply that if you consider the Republic's goals in going to war, they accomplished them, and thus achieved the true victory, regardless of the military outcome in this case. (And yes, I am being at least half flippant in this argument.)

Perhaps the phrase "rubbed her face in" is coming across a bit too strong; would anyone argue that she didn't need the difference between the restored Republic and PRH "demonstrated" or "proved" before she was willing to trust them, and *want* to ally with them? I think not.

Sorry, but your're fishing a bit. Elizabeth was ready to negotiate before the Second Havenite War started. She was willing to give the Havenites everything they said they wanted. The war was not necessary to achieve peace from QE III's perspective. Nothing needed to be rubbed in or even emphasized.

High Ridge did not want the war to end under ANY circumstances. So long as a state of war existed, the emergency tax measures continued. Those measures allowed him to keep the Progressives, Liberals and Conservatives' coalition together. Without that revenue, his ability to bribe those various parties to remain in the coalition evaporates.

So, the only reason hostilities needed to commence was to boot High Ridge out of office. Eloise would have sued for peace as soon as possible had Giancola's party not been adamant in defeating the SKM. As it was she sued soon after Giancola died and she could use her political capital from her initial victories to persuade Giancola's coterie to back her.

It was discovery of the MAlign that enabled Beth to accept the generous terms Eloise offered and offer concessions of her own. It was the treecat's reports and her own raport with Eloise that gave her the comfort level to accept the friendship Eloise offered.

All the other details had more to do with MAlign interference than anything either side did. Haven did not need to fight to get their demands met. The SKM did to oust High Ridge. Even though a resumption of hostilities was necessary to create the environment for peace talks to occur, persudading QEIII was not the reason. The resumption of hostilities actually created more resentment to overcome. It would have been better had no recurrence of hostilities happened and High Ridge had been ousted. Given the Progressives' leader was bought and paid for by the MAlign, they were responsible for High Ridge gaining power to exacerbate conditions leading to the Second Havenite War. The Progressives put the coalition over the top in the necessary votes.

PeterZ wrote:

NortonIDaughter wrote:Again, not arguing that Elizabeth is crazy, or that she would not have negotiated earlier on her terms if given the chance. And very explicitly not arguing that Manticore won the war militarily! They definitely did.

My argument was simply that if you consider the Republic's goals in going to war, they accomplished them, and thus achieved the true victory, regardless of the military outcome in this case. (And yes, I am being at least half flippant in this argument.)

Perhaps the phrase "rubbed her face in" is coming across a bit too strong; would anyone argue that she didn't need the difference between the restored Republic and PRH "demonstrated" or "proved" before she was willing to trust them, and *want* to ally with them? I think not.

Sorry, but your're fishing a bit. Elizabeth was ready to negotiate before the Second Havenite War started. She was willing to give the Havenites everything they said they wanted. The war was not necessary to achieve peace from QE III's perspective. Nothing needed to be rubbed in or even emphasized.

High Ridge did not want the war to end under ANY circumstances. So long as a state of war existed, the emergency tax measures continued. Those measures allowed him to keep the Progressives, Liberals and Conservatives' coalition together. Without that revenue, his ability to bribe those various parties to remain in the coalition evaporates.

So, the only reason hostilities needed to commence was to boot High Ridge out of office. Eloise would have sued for peace as soon as possible had Giancola's party not been adamant in defeating the SKM. As it was she sued soon after Giancola died and she could use her political capital from her initial victories to persuade Giancola's coterie to back her.

It was discovery of the MAlign that enabled Beth to accept the generous terms Eloise offered and offer concessions of her own. It was the treecat's reports and her own raport with Eloise that gave her the comfort level to accept the friendship Eloise offered.

All the other details had more to do with MAlign interference than anything either side did. Haven did not need to fight to get their demands met. The SKM did to oust High Ridge. Even though a resumption of hostilities was necessary to create the environment for peace talks to occur, persudading QEIII was not the reason. The resumption of hostilities actually created more resentment to overcome. It would have been better had no recurrence of hostilities happened and High Ridge had been ousted. Given the Progressives' leader was bought and paid for by the MAlign, they were responsible for High Ridge gaining power to exacerbate conditions leading to the Second Havenite War. The Progressives put the coalition over the top in the necessary votes.

NortonIDaughter has a point about the final outcome of the war being a better deal for Haven than they could have gotten any other way unless the Cachat/Zilwicki mission to Mesa had been launched anyway. It almost certainly would not have been, however, had the war not resumed. The fundamental reason it came into being was that Victor was pretty damned sure that the assassinations on Mesa had not been Haven's doing, and he'd convinced Anton and the others of the same thing. Remember his mission to meet with Honor aboard her flagship and why he was there. That mission brought back Simoes and uncovered (at least partially) the Alignment and its objectives, and that (particularly in the wake of Oyster Bay) is what gave Eloise the card she played by offering a full military alliance to the star nation with which she was at war at what was clearly the SKM's most desperate hour.

It's very difficult to see any other way in which Haven could have emerged from the military fiasco of the second war (which is precisely what it was about to come, given the SKM's monopoly on Apollo, before Oyster Bay saved the Republic from defeat) with anywhere near the advantaged position it now enjoys as one of the primary powers in what is certainly arguably the most dynamic, rapidly growing power center of the explored galaxy.

The war itself was a disaster for the Republic after Second Manticore, but that disaster contained the seeds of its ultimate renaissance into precisely what Tom Theisman, Eloise Pritchard and their allies had fought and died for decades to make it.

Without High Ridge (and Descroix), the RH could have had a nonpunitive peace years earlier and without suffering well over a million casualties in a war it ultimately lost. (I say nonpunitive because Elizabeth would have insisted on reasonable security provisions, not enormous reparations, cession of territory, or occupation of Nouveau Paris precisely because she was realist enough to see how dangerous Havenite revanchism would be down the road.) And it's highly probable that after 20 or so years of a post-Pritchard RH, the two star nations would have ended up with a raprochment at least as warm as say, the present day US and Germany. (I know, I know! ) The point is that the postwar relationship between them would have settled into a "normal diplomatic" sort of thing, probably with steadily mounting trade, and generally decent if not outstandingly warm relations. They would not, however, have even approached the "forged in blood" relationship they have now. And the Alignment probably still wouldn't have been discovered, which would mean all sorts of different things down the road.

It's sort of like real life. Figuring out what would have happened down the road not taken is always difficult, and evaluating what did happen as opposed to what might have happened involves trade offs which would probably be evaluated very differently by someone whose parent or child was killed in "Pritchart's War" and a liberated genetic slave on Mesa.

runsforcelery wrote:
NortonIDaughter has a point about the final outcome of the war being a better deal for Haven than they could have gotten any other way unless the Cachat/Zilwicki mission to Mesa had been launched anyway. It almost certainly would not have been, however, had the war not resumed. The fundamental reason it came into being was that Victor was pretty damned sure that the assassinations on Mesa had not been Haven's doing, and he'd convinced Anton and the others of the same thing. Remember his mission to meet with Honor aboard her flagship and why he was there. That mission brought back Simoes and uncovered (at least partially) the Alignment and its objectives, and that (particularly in the wake of Oyster Bay) is what gave Eloise the card she played by offering a full military alliance to the star nation with which she was at war at what was clearly the SKM's most desperate hour.

It's very difficult to see any other way in which Haven could have emerged from the military fiasco of the second war (which is precisely what it was about to come, given the SKM's monopoly on Apollo, before Oyster Bay saved the Republic from defeat) with anywhere near the advantaged position it now enjoys as one of the primary powers in what is certainly arguably the most dynamic, rapidly growing power center of the explored galaxy.

The war itself was a disaster for the Republic after Second Manticore, but that disaster contained the seeds of its ultimate renaissance into precisely what Tom Theisman, Eloise Pritchard and their allies had fought and died for decades to make it.

Without High Ridge (and Descroix), the RH could have had a nonpunitive peace years earlier and without suffering well over a million casualties in a war it ultimately lost. (I say nonpunitive because Elizabeth would have insisted on reasonable security provisions, not enormous reparations, cession of territory, or occupation of Nouveau Paris precisely because she was realist enough to see how dangerous Havenite revanchism would be down the road.) And it's highly probable that after 20 or so years of a post-Pritchard RH, the two star nations would have ended up with a raprochment at least as warm as say, the present day US and Germany. (I know, I know! ) The point is that the postwar relationship between them would have settled into a "normal diplomatic" sort of thing, probably with steadily mounting trade, and generally decent if not outstandingly warm relations. They would not, however, have even approached the "forged in blood" relationship they have now. And the Alignment probably still wouldn't have been discovered, which would mean all sorts of different things down the road.

It's sort of like real life. Figuring out what would have happened down the road not taken is always difficult, and evaluating what did happen as opposed to what might have happened involves trade offs which would probably be evaluated very differently by someone whose parent or child was killed in "Pritchart's War" and a liberated genetic slave on Mesa.

It happens I agree with her and it seems you on all else but the QEIII needed the resumption of hostilities to get her to accept Havenites as worthy of a peace treaty. I do agree that QEIII needed to meet with Eloise in some extremely unexpected way in order to truly be open to what Honor and the 'cats have to say about the Havenites. I also agree that the offer the Havenites made to stand against the vaunted SLN shoulder to shoulder with the RMN could not carry the weight it did without the ups and down of the resumptions of hostilities, and Oyster Bay.

The passions released by the events enabled the depth of the reconciliation achieved but was not necessary to achieve a reconciliation. Had the Havenites planned to achieve these results when the resumed hostilities, I would have faulted them severely. Too many things they didn't know about needed to happen before they could achieve the success they did. They did what they believed they had to do given the options High Ridge left them. It worked out well due to the reactive choices the participants made given the menu of option circumstances gave them.

PeterZ wrote:

runsforcelery wrote:
NortonIDaughter has a point about the final outcome of the war being a better deal for Haven than they could have gotten any other way unless the Cachat/Zilwicki mission to Mesa had been launched anyway. It almost certainly would not have been, however, had the war not resumed. The fundamental reason it came into being was that Victor was pretty damned sure that the assassinations on Mesa had not been Haven's doing, and he'd convinced Anton and the others of the same thing. Remember his mission to meet with Honor aboard her flagship and why he was there. That mission brought back Simoes and uncovered (at least partially) the Alignment and its objectives, and that (particularly in the wake of Oyster Bay) is what gave Eloise the card she played by offering a full military alliance to the star nation with which she was at war at what was clearly the SKM's most desperate hour.

It's very difficult to see any other way in which Haven could have emerged from the military fiasco of the second war (which is precisely what it was about to come, given the SKM's monopoly on Apollo, before Oyster Bay saved the Republic from defeat) with anywhere near the advantaged position it now enjoys as one of the primary powers in what is certainly arguably the most dynamic, rapidly growing power center of the explored galaxy.

The war itself was a disaster for the Republic after Second Manticore, but that disaster contained the seeds of its ultimate renaissance into precisely what Tom Theisman, Eloise Pritchard and their allies had fought and died for decades to make it.

Without High Ridge (and Descroix), the RH could have had a nonpunitive peace years earlier and without suffering well over a million casualties in a war it ultimately lost. (I say nonpunitive because Elizabeth would have insisted on reasonable security provisions, not enormous reparations, cession of territory, or occupation of Nouveau Paris precisely because she was realist enough to see how dangerous Havenite revanchism would be down the road.) And it's highly probable that after 20 or so years of a post-Pritchard RH, the two star nations would have ended up with a raprochment at least as warm as say, the present day US and Germany. (I know, I know! ) The point is that the postwar relationship between them would have settled into a "normal diplomatic" sort of thing, probably with steadily mounting trade, and generally decent if not outstandingly warm relations. They would not, however, have even approached the "forged in blood" relationship they have now. And the Alignment probably still wouldn't have been discovered, which would mean all sorts of different things down the road.

It's sort of like real life. Figuring out what would have happened down the road not taken is always difficult, and evaluating what did happen as opposed to what might have happened involves trade offs which would probably be evaluated very differently by someone whose parent or child was killed in "Pritchart's War" and a liberated genetic slave on Mesa.

It happens I agree with her and it seems you on all else but the QEIII needed the resumption of hostilities to get her to accept Havenites as worthy of a peace treaty. I do agree that QEIII needed to meet with Eloise in some extremely unexpected way in order to truly be open to what Honor and the 'cats have to say about the Havenites. I also agree that the offer the Havenites made to stand against the vaunted SLN shoulder to shoulder with the RMN could not carry the weight it did without the ups and down of the resumptions of hostilities, and Oyster Bay.

The passions released by the events enabled the depth of the reconciliation achieved but was not necessary to achieve a reconciliation. Had the Havenites planned to achieve these results when the resumed hostilities, I would have faulted them severely. Too many things they didn't know about needed to happen before they could achieve the success they did. They did what they believed they had to do given the options High Ridge left them. It worked out well due to the reactive choices the participants made given the menu of option circumstances gave them.

Over and over people seem to underestimate the Queen. Yes, she could be rigid. On the other hand, she had twice been willing to negotiate and give pretty decent terms.

She did listen to Honor when her ambassador was assassinated and Queen Berry attacked. At least up to a point. She didn't completely freak out about Cachat being in the middle of a whole lot of the Torch things.

I doubt there is much that can bring out the term "worthy". She knew that peace would be the best thing. After all, sending Honor to Haven's capital with a real peace offer after the Battle of Manticore was not the mark of a fanatic.

Look, if the Detweilers can agree that Elizabeth is not a fanatic, why can't we do the same?

I don't know, peeps. NortonIDaughter certainly has a point. I was about to post that she shouldn't throw in the towel to pressure, but RFC beat me to the punch. Of course Beth was willing to forage for peace. What Queen responsible for her kingdom wouldn't? Beth had always shown she was open for peace, the Star Kingdom had always been open for peace. But there just so happened to be that ever recurrent theme of the leopard's recurrent stripes.

Details are beginning to bleed into nothingness, but IINM, when Eloise lied to the galaxy about the diplomatic note, Beth no longer wanted peace. IMO, what Beth wanted at that point was to beat the bitch's ass!

Seriously, Beth isn't a product of her genetic temper, no, but she isn't an imbecile like some of the idiots who wear her uniform and call themselves a Queen's officer, either. Sure Beth wanted peace, but she had to be wary that peace was an empty Peep promise as it had always been. An empty promise to give themselves time to stab her in the back, again. What good was peace if it was fleeting? Under those considerations, is where NortonIDaughter's notion comes into play. Both Eloise and Beth had reasons to be angry. That anger had to naturally burn itself out.

I maybe should I have left poor Elizabeth out of this entirely, since that seems to be the dead horse around here. She's not crazy, she would have negotiated earlier if she could have, and she wanted peace and a treaty.

But that's not what happened, and my point about Haven and their reason for going to war was just as much or more about High Ridge.

Leaving Giancola entirely aside, Haven was right: Manticore was *not* negotiating in good faith. They needed to force High Ridge to the table. That WAS their whole reason for going to war-- if they could not end it with words, they had to try other means. They actually ended up removing him entirely, which Elizabeth hadn't managed in four years, and y'all know she was trying! The only reason she never contemplated firing High Ridge into one of the suns was because it would've been too quick. (A woman after my own heart.) With High Ridge gone, Manticore was free to negotiate in good faith at last. Haven accomplished that.

Without Thunderbolt, when and how does High Ridge resign? He held on until the news about Grendelsbane! I find it entirely likely that, if he'd gotten a formal declaration of the resumption of hostilities, he could have stayed ahead of the game a little longer. Without those "sneak attacks", the RMN doesn't get creamed the same way. More time to prep public opinion, to play the game and fake that steely resolve, etc. He's still got Honor, and as much as he dislikes her, he's clearly willing to use her. I don't see Elizabeth being any more willing to rock the boat with a constitutional crisis at that point, either. He'd have lasted long enough to do damage. God knows how the Monica aftermath, not to mention the Mesa/ SL conflict, would have gone if he'd held on even longer than I think he would have.

Because of High Ridge, Haven needed to fight to get a treaty *at all*. Full stop. Getting the treaty they *did* get, which was by all measures more advantageous to the Republic (and to the SEM), rather than some other version, was possible because Haven proved their worth in a variety of ways, some of which only occurred *because* of the war.

Of course, as RFC pointed out, all of this is against the backdrop of the MAlign conflict-- without it, either the war never happens at all, or ends at the summit on Torch, with a perfectly reasonable peace such as Elizabeth would have offered originally. Or neither war ever happens in the first place, seeing as the MAlign brought the old Republic down to begin with... Or or or... the road untraveled may be impossible to map with any certainty, but "here there be dragons" has always captured the imagination.

cthia wrote:Details are beginning to bleed into nothingness, but IINM, when Eloise lied to the galaxy about the diplomatic note, Beth no longer wanted peace. IMO, what Beth wanted at that point was to beat the bitch's ass!

Due to the forged notes both Eloise and Elizabeth believed they were telling the truth.

So Eloise was incorrect about what Manticore actually sent, but she wasn't lying because she was truthfully reporting the content of the note she received. (And had no reason to suspect that it wasn't the note Manticore sent - and some proof (a valid digital signature; thanks to StateSec having stolen a still valid private key) that it was legitimately sent from their Foreign Office)

NortonIDaughter wrote:I maybe should I have left poor Elizabeth out of this entirely, since that seems to be the dead horse around here. She's not crazy, she would have negotiated earlier if she could have, and she wanted peace and a treaty.

But that's not what happened, and my point about Haven and their reason for going to war was just as much or more about High Ridge.

Leaving Giancola entirely aside, Haven was right: Manticore was *not* negotiating in good faith. They needed to force High Ridge to the table. That WAS their whole reason for going to war-- if they could not end it with words, they had to try other means. They actually ended up removing him entirely, which Elizabeth hadn't managed in four years, and y'all know she was trying! The only reason she never contemplated firing High Ridge into one of the suns was because it would've been too quick. (A woman after my own heart.) With High Ridge gone, Manticore was free to negotiate in good faith at last. Haven accomplished that.

Without Thunderbolt, when and how does High Ridge resign? He held on until the news about Grendelsbane! I find it entirely likely that, if he'd gotten a formal declaration of the resumption of hostilities, he could have stayed ahead of the game a little longer. Without those "sneak attacks", the RMN doesn't get creamed the same way. More time to prep public opinion, to play the game and fake that steely resolve, etc. He's still got Honor, and as much as he dislikes her, he's clearly willing to use her. I don't see Elizabeth being any more willing to rock the boat with a constitutional crisis at that point, either. He'd have lasted long enough to do damage. God knows how the Monica aftermath, not to mention the Mesa/ SL conflict, would have gone if he'd held on even longer than I think he would have.

Because of High Ridge, Haven needed to fight to get a treaty *at all*. Full stop. Getting the treaty they *did* get, which was by all measures more advantageous to the Republic (and to the SEM), rather than some other version, was possible because Haven proved their worth in a variety of ways, some of which only occurred *because* of the war.

Of course, as RFC pointed out, all of this is against the backdrop of the MAlign conflict-- without it, either the war never happens at all, or ends at the summit on Torch, with a perfectly reasonable peace such as Elizabeth would have offered originally. Or neither war ever happens in the first place, seeing as the MAlign brought the old Republic down to begin with... Or or or... the road untraveled may be impossible to map with any certainty, but "here there be dragons" has always captured the imagination.

High Ridge rose to power because of the MAlign. Descroix, may her name be forever followed by expectoration, was a MAlign plant. Had the progressives had a corrupt Manticoran patroit leading the Progressives, they might have avoided giving High Ridge the Prime Ministership. Even giving the Liberals control of Parliament out right would have resulted in a peace treaty.

That suuegests to me that the MAlign created the instrument of their own doom. Honest people acting with good intent reacting to difficult circumstances moved the SEM and the RoH into such close alliance. Those circumstances could not have developed without the MAlign trying to destroy both these polities from the shadows.

No one in either the SEM or RoH wanted to have the war. They were pushed into it step by step by the MAlign. The MAlign created the menu of options that QEIII and Honor had to choose from after High Ridge resigned. The Dastardly Duo discovering Simoes and the MAlign clarified too many of the shadowed movements driving recent events. The MAlign presented Eloise, Thomas, Honor, Elizabeth, Gregor and Benjamin with a very threatening scenario where becomming allies with know and honorable enemies was less risky than going against the MAlign separately.

So, while the resumption of hostilities was chosen as the best option available from an awful list of menu options, it was not part of a strategic plan Haven desired and acted to bring about. War wasn't a choice, it was a response. The best available response, but still a response. Where the SEM and RoH ended up was a result of responses taken by good people acting from the menu largely created by the MAlign. The actors in the SEM and RoH combined to respond in ways that resulted in the Grand Alliance. This was hardly a contrivance of the Havenites alone.

PeterZ wrote:So, while the resumption of hostilities was chosen as the best option available from an awful list of menu options, it was not part of a strategic plan Haven desired and acted to bring about. War wasn't a choice, it was a response. The best available response, but still a response. Where the SEM and RoH ended up was a result of responses taken by good people acting from the menu largely created by the MAlign. The actors in the SEM and RoH combined to respond in ways that resulted in the Grand Alliance. This was hardly a contrivance of the Havenites alone.

For that matter, the delaying tactics by Haven's domestic vulture population during Honor's embassy trip there contributed to the formation of the GA as well. Honor could well have been presenting a draft treaty to Elizabeth and the House of Lords before Oyster Bay happened if not for their self centered obstructionism. A relatively fair, non-punitive treaty - although less generous than the one they'd have gotten pre-Thunderbolt as RFC outlined above - could have already been in the process of being implemented before Victor and Anton got Simoes back.

Under those circumstances, Simoes' little bombshell might not have had the galvanizing effect it did on Congress in Haven, and Pritchard might not have been able to sell them on the full alliance. Of course, Pritchard being Prichard, she may well have forced the Alliance into being anyway.