TFT Speculation and Discussion Thread-Spoilers Alert

SYED wrote:What if the republic decides to fix their economic issues by conquering the border states? A brief victorious wars has often been used to prop ailing states. The military aid they received from charis has givern then a military far in advance of the border states, and their military has been gutted by the jihad.

That assumes that they can squeeze them for enough money to sustain their economy, even in the short term. But given the size differential between the border states and Siddarmark, any relief would be very temporary while risking invention by the Temple Lands in what likely is a violation of the post-Jihad peace treaty.

PeterZ wrote:I moved the post from Snippet #13 torpedo thread here to continue the discussion.

Underlying this entire sub thread of torpedoes is one question.

What would foster technological innovation better?

I think that now the war is over, large-scale projects will be more important than tech innovation per se - all the mid-late 19th and early 20th-century stuff transposed on Safehold like transcontinental railroads spanning the whole planet, the analog of the Suez and Panama canals, steam cars and trucks, fleets of airships both military and civilian, probably some kind of steam armored vehicles too, steam battleships and cruise liners; there is a lot of growth to happen within the parameters already established by the end of the war

cnrd22 wrote:

PeterZ wrote:I moved the post from Snippet #13 torpedo thread here to continue the discussion.

Underlying this entire sub thread of torpedoes is one question.

What would foster technological innovation better?

I think that now the war is over, large-scale projects will be more important than tech innovation per se - all the mid-late 19th and early 20th-century stuff transposed on Safehold like transcontinental railroads spanning the whole planet, the analog of the Suez and Panama canals, steam cars and trucks, fleets of airships both military and civilian, probably some kind of steam armored vehicles too, steam battleships and cruise liners; there is a lot of growth to happen within the parameters already established by the end of the war

I agree that commercial transportation applications are the most important priority for Charis to encourage in Safehold. A very close second is power assisted production. If the civilian economy has a developed transportation grid and powered production, the potential for that economy per man/hour is huge. That nation can support all sorts of innovative weapons and the trained military to use them. I suspect after the CoC gives Safeholdians a CoGA safe rationale for powered transports and production, it's Shan-Wei take the hindmost in adopting those commercial innovations.

The cool military toys are almost the reward for the autocrats ruling those nations. The people see a vast wealth and standard of living increase, while the rulers have a MUCH bigger tax base to support their fancy new toys.

PeterZ wrote:I agree that commercial transportation applications are the most important priority for Charis to encourage in Safehold. A very close second is power assisted production. If the civilian economy has a developed transportation grid and powered production, the potential for that economy per man/hour is huge. That nation can support all sorts of innovative weapons and the trained military to use them. I suspect after the CoC gives Safeholdians a CoGA safe rationale for powered transports and production, it's Shan-Wei take the hindmost in adopting those commercial innovations.

The cool military toys are almost the reward for the autocrats ruling those nations. The people see a vast wealth and standard of living increase, while the rulers have a MUCH bigger tax base to support their fancy new toys.

The new technology at the end of the war was pretty much approved by the Church and all that is needed is just ramping up the scale massively which obviously will require massive capital investment (and presumably joint ventures in the countries that are not allied with Charis), so I think it will be a matter of political will and economic management rather than CoGa approval

Anyway I think that no realm outside the Temple lands will really care much about whatever CoGA says or doesn't since the Inquisition is declawed and the economic power of Zion is much reduced - at least as long as they can argue they stay within the Writ and the Proscriptions and as we saw in the earlier volumes there is a lot of room in there

cnrd22 wrote:

PeterZ wrote:I moved the post from Snippet #13 torpedo thread here to continue the discussion.

Underlying this entire sub thread of torpedoes is one question.

What would foster technological innovation better?

I think that now the war is over, large-scale projects will be more important than tech innovation per se - all the mid-late 19th and early 20th-century stuff transposed on Safehold like transcontinental railroads spanning the whole planet, the analog of the Suez and Panama canals, steam cars and trucks, fleets of airships both military and civilian, probably some kind of steam armored vehicles too, steam battleships and cruise liners; there is a lot of growth to happen within the parameters already established by the end of the war

Delferahk, being at the far end of no where, might attempt to make a defense agreement with Charis, roughly 'you will keep us from being invaded, the threat of your battleships being adequate, and we will allow your recruiters to recruit our young men for fixed terms in your Navy.' Then focus on economic improvement. I gather the terrain is quite hilly meaning lots of opportunity for water power, and hiding behind a high tariff wall may actually be their best opportunity to advance,

phillies wrote:

cnrd22 wrote:I think that now the war is over, large-scale projects will be more important than tech innovation per se - all the mid-late 19th and early 20th-century stuff transposed on Safehold like transcontinental railroads spanning the whole planet, the analog of the Suez and Panama canals, steam cars and trucks, fleets of airships both military and civilian, probably some kind of steam armored vehicles too, steam battleships and cruise liners; there is a lot of growth to happen within the parameters already established by the end of the war

Delferahk, being at the far end of no where, might attempt to make a defense agreement with Charis, roughly 'you will keep us from being invaded, the threat of your battleships being adequate, and we will allow your recruiters to recruit our young men for fixed terms in your Navy.' Then focus on economic improvement. I gather the terrain is quite hilly meaning lots of opportunity for water power, and hiding behind a high tariff wall may actually be their best opportunity to advance,

So, how many nations will opt for the Silkiahn Strategy? That is to have Charis secure your independence and focus on building the national economy. I suspect Trellheim and any independent island or small coastal nation will find the strategy appealing. Heck, most of those nations would be happy with paying a membership fee to a Charisian Commonwealth. I doubt that will happen soon, but allowing the CoC in to compete with the CoGA and having national sovereignty secured by the ICN can happen pretty quickly. Following that, the greater the nation lets Charisian corporations invest, the greater the likelihood the ICN and ICA will actually fight to defend the defense partner nation.

PeterZ wrote:So, how many nations will opt for the Silkiahn Strategy? That is to have Charis secure your independence and focus on building the national economy. I suspect Trellheim and any independent island or small coastal nation will find the strategy appealing. Heck, most of those nations would be happy with paying a membership fee to a Charisian Commonwealth. I doubt that will happen soon, but allowing the CoC in to compete with the CoGA and having national sovereignty secured by the ICN can happen pretty quickly. Following that, the greater the nation lets Charisian corporations invest, the greater the likelihood the ICN and ICA will actually fight to defend the defense partner nation.

I think the above hits at the main weakness of Merlin and The Inner Circle strategy of going fast for industrialization and Reveal - fast here meaning a century or so until the presumed return of the archangels at the end of the 900's as the possible imminent return in 915 is not survivable - that's why it won't happen btw.

An industrialized but not unified politically (or at least by something resembling the moral authority CoGA had before losing the war so disastrously and committing so many atrocities) is a powder keg, reveal or no reveal, as I simply do not believe that even knowing about the Federation and/or the Gbaba would turn enemies of Charis into friends - especially as a form of nationalism (which already was present but was kept in check by CoGA) seems to be developing in many places.

PeterZ wrote:So, how many nations will opt for the Silkiahn Strategy? That is to have Charis secure your independence and focus on building the national economy. I suspect Trellheim and any independent island or small coastal nation will find the strategy appealing. Heck, most of those nations would be happy with paying a membership fee to a Charisian Commonwealth. I doubt that will happen soon, but allowing the CoC in to compete with the CoGA and having national sovereignty secured by the ICN can happen pretty quickly. Following that, the greater the nation lets Charisian corporations invest, the greater the likelihood the ICN and ICA will actually fight to defend the defense partner nation.

cnrd22 wrote:I think the above hits at the main weakness of Merlin and The Inner Circle strategy of going fast for industrialization and Reveal - fast here meaning a century or so until the presumed return of the archangels at the end of the 900's as the possible imminent return in 915 is not survivable - that's why it won't happen btw.

An industrialized but not unified politically (or at least by something resembling the moral authority CoGA had before losing the war so disastrously and committing so many atrocities) is a powder keg, reveal or no reveal, as I simply do not believe that even knowing about the Federation and/or the Gbaba would turn enemies of Charis into friends - especially as a form of nationalism (which already was present but was kept in check by CoGA) seems to be developing in many places.

Now you are taking plot considerations in mind for how David will tell this story. That way of thinking is too predictable for plot development purposes.

The Inner Circle has to develop contingency plans to cover all possible scenarios. The Return may happen in 915 or soon afterwards as whatever awakens gets up to speed. What will they do in this circumstance? Ignoring the scenario because you don't think it is survivable is foolish. Changing the parameters to enable as much of the innovative spirit to survive may be the best they can hope for. If so, then plan accordingly. That's what they are doing.

The Charis and the Inner Circle may not survive, but enough of an innovation mindset and the two PICAs may indeed survive to fight another day. Forcing the Awakeners to kill and destroy as many innocents as possible to eradicate the technology may well be best strategy to limit the total destruction.

PeterZ wrote:Now you are taking plot considerations in mind for how David will tell this story. That way of thinking is too predictable for plot development purposes.

The Inner Circle has to develop contingency plans to cover all possible scenarios. The Return may happen in 915 or soon afterwards as whatever awakens gets up to speed. What will they do in this circumstance? Ignoring the scenario because you don't think it is survivable is foolish. Changing the parameters to enable as much of the innovative spirit to survive may be the best they can hope for. If so, then plan accordingly. That's what they are doing.

The Charis and the Inner Circle may not survive, but enough of an innovation mindset and the two PICAs may indeed survive to fight another day. Forcing the Awakeners to kill and destroy as many innocents as possible to eradicate the technology may well be best strategy to limit the total destruction.

I am sure in the abstract anything is possible, but I just do not see anything radical happening with the characters (there are a few examples where the authors blew up their world and characters and I am not sure they sold that many books in the corresponding series after that, not to speak of the hate mail they got from passionate fans and superb storytellers like DW know this, see the whole at All Costs thing in the Honorverse and the tradeoff between keeping Honor alive at the price of making the Solarian League a sitting duck enemy), so the Return while needed as an incentive to speed up the Reveal and Industrialization during the lifetime of the current main characters (it's interesting to reread the earlier books and see how all Merlin's predictions about how long will take for this or that proved quite wrong, and again that comes down to the art of storytelling and why DW has been so successful) just cannot happen at this point.

This being said, the possible return in 915 will probably have consequences as dealing with its potentiality, means the Inner Circle may lose a few of the juggling balls they have in the air all the time...