Snippet #13

Dilandu wrote:

isaac_newton wrote:
so in the real world, only innovations came from the US?

no - there are innovators all over.

The real world did not correspond with Safehold artifical model. The real world tech development were neither influenced by any kind of global religion, nor data provided from mysterious all-knowing agents.

P.S. And actually, the one-side hegemony did not led to fast progress. The competition of roughly comparable advesaries led. Neither Roman Empire nor Ancient China were especially innovative; on the other side, both the Anglo-French competition in XIX century, and Cold War between USA and USSR led to the most rapid technological advances in humankind history.

Well China during the Three Kingdoms period did have a burst of innovation.
You are now arguing in favor of RFC's reasoning behind the Thunderer, Dilandu. Furthermore, the ship's design highlights the applied use of technology that can adapted to a larger variety of uses beyond the navy. Anyone who sees and understands the tech will recognize this. They will also recognize productive capacity and national wealth are Charis' essential assets for their dominance. Any nation that would compete with Charis has to increase their wealth and production capacity. Even Desnair recognizes those key elements.

The smart rulers will know that a larger population base can increase their absolute wealth and production capacity to higher levels than Charis using less efficient technology. This further argues that a close or even not so close second in the tech war can still lead to greater absolute military power. The essential determinant is the absolute size of a nation's economy.

PeterZ wrote:Where are Rainbow Water's remaining 1 million to 1.5 million troops he had at the end of the jihad? This snippet has his troop strength estimated at 300k-400k. If the Emperor refused re-entry to any part of the MH, they are either working in the TL/Border Kingdoms or back in Harchong.

According to an earlier snippet, Rhobair settled the Mighty Host on unconsecrated land in the Temple Lands on a "you consecrate it, you own it" basis. It wouldn't surprise me if a lot of the former serfs in the MH weren't willing to leave their brand new farms, especially if they knew or suspected that they didn't have anyone back in Harchong to go home to.

PeterZ wrote:You are now arguing in favor of RFC's reasoning behind the Thunderer, Dilandu.

Actually, I agreed with that particular reasoning long ago. My main point again KH's were that they were of doubtful military value in the Jihad situation - the kind of "superweapon" that usually lose the wars (like V-2 missiles, for example) - and represent enormous waste of resources, which could be much better used elsewhere. But I agree, that they are good technology demonstrators.

What I disagree with, is the constant Charisian cheating. Merlin continued to supply them with information even through now it isn't necessary for Charis survival or Merlin's mission. This is counter-productive in post-war conditions. The whole "Charisians would immediately know it and have a working solution" thing is not helping the main goal - moreover, I presented arguments that it actually would damage the "innovation mindset", because perfected, refined Charisian solution would be in stark contrast with honest inventiveness of everyone else.

Basically, someone should give Merlin a kick, and remind him, that his goal is to promote innovative mindset for all Safehold, not to play with his Charisian puppets in "how I would conquer the world for greater good".

Julia Minor wrote:

PeterZ wrote:Where are Rainbow Water's remaining 1 million to 1.5 million troops he had at the end of the jihad? This snippet has his troop strength estimated at 300k-400k. If the Emperor refused re-entry to any part of the MH, they are either working in the TL/Border Kingdoms or back in Harchong.

According to an earlier snippet, Rhobair settled the Mighty Host on unconsecrated land in the Temple Lands on a "you consecrate it, you own it" basis. It wouldn't surprise me if a lot of the former serfs in the MH weren't willing to leave their brand new farms, especially if they knew or suspected that they didn't have anyone back in Harchong to go home to.

It's been 3 years since the jihad was over. That unconsecrated land is likely north of the Mountains of Light along Hsing-wu's Passage. In those three years, the areas that they have been given are still very undeveloped. That's a tough life, especially in winter.

Now they have a choice about going home and helping their neighbors throw off the yoke of oppression as has been done for them or staying and working a very hard life. Their new life will have few women in it, for how many women want to have such a life when economic expansion in better climates is so available?

One suspects that many will choose to return home. If as many as half return, that's between 500k-750k trained soldiers. Given the bond those soldiers have for one another after their ordeal in the jihad, they'll tend to stick together and decide as groups to go or stay. I would not be surprised if more than half return to Harchong after the fighting erupts and the worst Harchong aristos are suitably dealt with.

PeterZ wrote:You are now arguing in favor of RFC's reasoning behind the Thunderer, Dilandu.

Dilandu wrote:Actually, I agreed with that particular reasoning long ago. My main point again KH's were that they were of doubtful military value in the Jihad situation - the kind of "superweapon" that usually lose the wars (like V-2 missiles, for example) - and represent enormous waste of resources, which could be much better used elsewhere. But I agree, that they are good technology demonstrators.

What I disagree with, is the constant Charisian cheating. Merlin continued to supply them with information even through now it isn't necessary for Charis survival or Merlin's mission. This is counter-productive in post-war conditions. The whole "Charisians would immediately know it and have a working solution" thing is not helping the main goal - moreover, I presented arguments that it actually would damage the "innovation mindset", because perfected, refined Charisian solution would be in stark contrast with honest inventiveness of everyone else.

Basically, someone should give Merlin a kick, and remind him, that his goal is to promote innovative mindset for all Safehold, not to play with his Charisian puppets in "how I would conquer the world for greater good".

I don't agree that Merlin was cheating so much as he was being Socrates asking leading questions. Rather, Merlin was being Plato structuring an argument to make a point Plato had already considered thoroughly. The reader exercises his reasoning in following the discussions and comes away from the process a better thinker even though he did not derive the logic guided by Plato by himself.

Merlin hasn't adopted the last name Athrawes for no reason. The process Merlin has adopted initially gave Charis a place to start that would help them survive. Then he and Howsmyn ask pertinent questions to get their subordinates answering questions that lead to process improvements and technical innovations. Since innovations arise most often to solve problems or answer real world questions, the process Merlin chose does NOT cripple innovation in Charis.

I do agree that Merlin or some local seijin needs to visit other nations and help occaisionally. Thoes other agents need to spark that sort of Socratic method. Having local technical academies are really a good idea. Perhaps the Church of Charis version of Intendants (Patent officers) can sponsor academies that can teach locals how to both take advanage of existing patents and how to gain a defensible patent that Charis will honor and defend just as they do their own patents.

Dilandu wrote:Basically, someone should give Merlin a kick, and remind him, that his goal is to promote innovative mindset for all Safehold, not to play with his Charisian puppets in "how I would conquer the world for greater good".

Actually, I completely disagree - "conquering the world for the greater good" is what essentially must happen next considering the way things developed so far, only that Merlin and co would prefer this to happen peacefully, by treaties and by internal reform in the more recalcitrant states like Desnair and s Harchong; unfortunately, that's not going to happen - and I think Merlin realizes the slimness of the odds for peaceful coexistence now that the Church's authority and the ties that limited wars and state power that came with that for better or worse, have dissolved, so keeping technology and powerful weapons in the back pocket of Charis so to speak is still crucial.

PeterZ wrote:I don't agree that Merlin was cheating so much as he was being Socrates asking leading questions. Rather, Merlin was being Plato structuring an argument to make a point Plato had already considered thoroughly.

He gave Charis unfair advantages in surveillance and technological solution even after it ceased to be a matter of survival. If it isn't cheating (including his own agenda) then what is it?

Then he and Howsmyn ask pertinent questions to get their subordinates answering questions that lead to process improvements and technical innovations. Since innovations arise most often to solve problems or answer real world questions, the process Merlin chose does NOT cripple innovation in Charis.

This was right for the first several books. Then he basically started to just give them the ready solutions and made all calculations for them.

For example, steam engines. If he just "ask pertinent questions", it would lead to the creation of relatively simple, pretty realistic early XIX-century single expansion steam engine, then (after some time) compound machine, and it would be perfectly fine.

But he gave them triple-expansion engines. The pinnacle of the piston marine propulsion, which appeared only in late XIX century. The system, that simply could not be designed by peoples with zero experience with ANY steam machines. So, he basically just gave them perfected solution - i.e. exactly followed Langhorne's postulate of knowledge as something given by supernatural forces, not gained by the person.

And I must stress this again: there were no need to make such leap at all. The single-expansion engines would be absolutely sufficient for absolutely any Charis naval & industrial purposes during this era, and they would be incredibly simpler to maintain, to build and to repair. The only reason why he pushed for triple-expansion was because otherwise he could not build early XX century armored cruisers (which have no practical use except of technology demonstrator).

I do agree that Merlin or some local seijin needs to visit other nations and help occaisionally. Thoes other agents need to spark that sort of Socratic method. Having local technical academies are really a good idea. Perhaps the Church of Charis version of Intendants (Patent officers) can sponsor academies that can teach locals how to both take advanage of existing patents and how to gain a defensible patent that Charis will honor and defend just as they do their own patents.

First, Merlin should stop the practice of giving his Charisian friends the perfected, Owl-calculated designs, and limit their access to surveillance. It may led to a few unpleasant scenes with his friends, but the true friends would understood that his goal could not be limited to a single kingdom, and the current situation present too much temptation to persuade Merlin that "what good for Charis must be good for Safehold". Which would basically be self-destructive.

cnrd22 wrote:

Dilandu wrote:Basically, someone should give Merlin a kick, and remind him, that his goal is to promote innovative mindset for all Safehold, not to play with his Charisian puppets in "how I would conquer the world for greater good".

Actually, I completely disagree - "conquering the world for the greater good" is what essentially must happen next considering the way things developed so far, only that Merlin and co would prefer this to happen peacefully, by treaties and by internal reform in the more recalcitrant states like Desnair and s Harchong; unfortunately, that's not going to happen - and I think Merlin realizes the slimness of the odds for peaceful coexistence now that the Church's authority and the ties that limited wars and state power that came with that for better or worse, have dissolved, so keeping technology and powerful weapons in the back pocket of Charis so to speak is still crucial.

The dissolution of the stabilizing factors on Safehold is the very reason Merlin shouldn't keep all the tech goodies in the Charisian coffers. He has to offer suggestions either through Duke Delthak or through known spies to take advantage of the demand for innovation. Charis can take whatever shortcut they need to take in order to stay far enough ahead of the race to survive any conflict with Safeholdian nations.

What they cannot survive is a Return of the Archangels before they have had a chance to build up a terran tech production base. The worry about doing that now is that such a move will bring on the Return more quickly. So it seems wisest to spread technology as far and wide as possible in order to force the Returners into a dilemma; discard Langhorne's plan or destroy humanity completely.


Charis' best chance to survive is to make sure technology is spread as widely as possible. It doesn't matter that their Safeholdian enemies are stronger. Those enemies are not an existential threat to Charis, the Inner Circle or Merlin's ultimate goal. The only threat to any of that are the Returners due back as early as 916.

cnrd22 wrote:
Actually, I completely disagree - "conquering the world for the greater good" is what essentially must happen next considering the way things developed so far, only that Merlin and co would prefer this to happen peacefully, by treaties and by internal reform in the more recalcitrant states like Desnair and s Harchong; unfortunately, that's not going to happen - and I think Merlin realizes the slimness of the odds for peaceful coexistence now that the Church's authority and the ties that limited wars and state power that came with that for better or worse, have dissolved, so keeping technology and powerful weapons in the back pocket of Charis so to speak is still crucial.

I repeat again: the Merlin's goal is to re-establish the innovative mindset. The hegemony of any single nation would not led to that; it would be another prolonged period of technological stagnation, simply because "there are no need to do that just now". Not to mention that single-nation hegemony is historically unstable.

PeterZ wrote:The dissolution of the stabilizing factors on Safehold is the very reason Merlin shouldn't keep all the tech goodies in the Charisian coffers. He has to offer suggestions either through Duke Delthak or through known spies to take advantage of the demand for innovation. Charis can take whatever shortcut they need to take in order to stay far enough ahead of the race to survive any conflict with Safeholdian nations.

What they cannot survive is a Return of the Archangels before they have had a chance to build up a terran tech production base. The worry about doing that now is that such a move will bring on the Return more quickly. So it seems wisest to spread technology as far and wide as possible in order to force the Returners into a dilemma; discard Langhorne's plan or destroy humanity completely.


Charis' best chance to survive is to make sure technology is spread as widely as possible. It doesn't matter that their Safeholdian enemies are stronger. Those enemies are not an existential threat to Charis, the Inner Circle or Merlin's ultimate goal. The only threat to any of that are the Returners due back as early as 916.

Exactly. And not only technology itself - but the mindset for innovation, the inquisitive thinking model. It would not be of any good if returning Archangels would just move the plank of allowed technology a bit higher & put the steam engines into Proscriptions "approved" section under some pretext. Merlin needed peoples who would continue to ask "why?" and "how its working" everywhere on Safehold.

That's why I think that he should stop the practice of giving Charis the perfected technology (excluding dire situation, maybe). The process of re-establishing innovative thinking could not be fulfilled by giving perfected technology. Peoples need to experiment, need to make imperfect solution and then work to improve them year by year. Not just "good seiji gave us blueprints, let's thank Langhorne for his kindness!"

P.S. Unless...