EXTRY! EXTRY! IMPEACHMENT IMMINENT!

Annachie wrote:It appears that that caravan has disapered.

Would that be dispersed or disappeared?
If it is the former, then it means that the immigrants could still be on their way, just not in one huge mass.
If the latter, then one has to wonder what happened to them all. For a convoy that large to just vanish leads to the worrying thought that the slave trade may have resurfaced and be ready to sell a whole load of new products...
...assuming there isn't a huge mass grave somewhere...

Michael Everett wrote:Would that be dispersed or disappeared?
If it is the former, then it means that the immigrants could still be on their way, just not in one huge mass.
If the latter, then one has to wonder what happened to them all. For a convoy that large to just vanish leads to the worrying thought that the slave trade may have resurfaced and be ready to sell a whole load of new products...
...assuming there isn't a huge mass grave somewhere...

Somebody stopped providing logistical support and they all wandered off?

I'm guessing the picture didn't work properly, again.

Imaginos1892 wrote:

Michael Everett wrote:Would that be dispersed or disappeared?
If it is the former, then it means that the immigrants could still be on their way, just not in one huge mass.
If the latter, then one has to wonder what happened to them all. For a convoy that large to just vanish leads to the worrying thought that the slave trade may have resurfaced and be ready to sell a whole load of new products...
...assuming there isn't a huge mass grave somewhere...

Somebody stopped providing logistical support and they all wandered off?

Yeah, that's it. All that was left was one big honking piñata filled with goodies.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ex0eAv2axuI

Truth in the form of comedy. Yes folks, we have only 3 to 4 days of election propaganda to listen to and then it's back to the grindstone. Some random thoughts for the day. Why did President Obama retain legal counsel? I wonder what that's all about. Could it be that the underlings in his former administration realize some people are going to be held accountable for their actions in Obama's spygate. Some of the rats have pointed fingers at the White House directly. Then you have Papadopoulos lawyers going to town on many of the former FBI and DOJ officials. Obama's no longer playing the flute to keep the rats in line. Gcomeau please pass the bowl of popcorn around the table this is getting good. Would you like some freshly made frozen daiquiris? Just remember the wife does not allow any type of blunts in the house so please leave that in the car!

Try English?

smr wrote:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ex0eAv2axuI

Truth in the form of comedy. Yes folks, we have only 3 to 4 days of election propaganda to listen to and then it's back to the grindstone. Some random thoughts for the day. Why did President Obama retain legal counsel? I wonder what that's all about. Could it be that the underlings in his former administration realize some people are going to be held accountable for their actions in Obama's spygate. Some of the rats have pointed fingers at the White House directly. Then you have Papadopoulos lawyers going to town on many of the former FBI and DOJ officials. Obama's no longer playing the flute to keep the rats in line. Gcomeau please pass the bowl of popcorn around the table this is getting good. Would you like some freshly made frozen daiquiris? Just remember the wife does not allow any type of blunts in the house so please leave that in the car!

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/us-mi ... CTqP9dgQlw

Great. Just great. Now the border troops would be forced not only to look after potential illegals but also to keep armed amateurs under control. The probability of "all this turning ugly" scenario just skyrocketed.

https://townhall.com/columnists/wayneal ... t-n2534861


GOP upset?!? I hope so or on Tuesday I will be drinking Margaritas (OK, I will be drinking Margaritas if they win). At least, the election hoopla will be over!

smr wrote:https://townhall.com/columnists/wayneallynroot/2018/11/05/vegas-oddsmaker-predicts-gop-upset-n2534861


GOP upset?!? I hope so or on Tuesday I will be drinking Margaritas (OK, I will be drinking Margaritas if they win). At least, the election hoopla will be over!

Another day, another instance of smr reading bad articles written by idiots.

Let's pick this one apart, and see which parts are bullshit.

Back in 2016 I predicted a Trump victory when no one else did. Every poll showed Trump would lose by a wide margin. Nate Silver of the NY Times predicted Hillary’s chances of winning at 92%. These pollsters make their living by polling actual human beings. I don’t. So how did I know?

Let's look at the only thing that is actually a factual assertion here, Nate Silver and his predictions for the 2016 election.
While there were predictions that put HRC's chances of winning at over 90%, Nate Silver's projections, which are based on metaanalysis of multiple polls, were notably conservative: They gave Clinton a 2 in 3 to 3 in 4 chance of winning. That she didn't should, statistically speaking, not be a surprise (it's a different story psychologically, of course).

Also, sidenote: Most of the polling was accurate. After all, Clinton did get the majority of the vote; that she didn't win the race has more to do with the weirdness of the american election system than a fundamental flaw in the polling data or its analysis.

(oh, and Nate Silver is not a pollster. He's an analyst. Important difference.)

Moving on:

Simple. First, size matters. You could see it in the rallies. Trump would attract eight hour lines and 10,000 or more attendees at wild, intense rallies all over America. I should know. I was opening speaker for six Trump campaign events here in Las Vegas.

Oh, our good friend anecdotal data, and already here so early!
Now, keeping in mind that HRC won the popular vote, post-election analysis was pretty clear that one of the reason Clinton lost was because they didn't put effort into places where they could have been competitive; A strategic error, but given that she won the popular vote, an understandable one to make.
Anyway, point being: Anecdotes aren't data. Trump being popular at rallies didn't win him the popular vote, did it?

Meanwhile Hillary was attracting 100 to 200 attendees at a rally here in Vegas. I could fit Hillary’s rallies in my living room. The same story held true across America. That was my first reason for realizing Trump was going to pull a huge upset that few saw coming.

*Yawn* More anecdotes.

Part Duex was also simple. Trump was “the whisper candidate.” Everywhere I went, people whispered in my ear, “I’m with you. I’m for Trump.” They wouldn’t tell pollsters. They wouldn't put up yard signs. No bumper stickers on their car. No mention of their support of Trump around the office watercooler. But they whispered to me. The pollsters never had a chance.

If Trump had so much "silent" support, why was the polling data for the popular vote within the usual margin of error?

Don’t look now, but it’s all happening again. Nate Silver says Democrats have a 80%+ chance of winning the House. Cook Report says Democrats will win the House by 40 seats. All the experts say it’s over- Democrats will win. I'll go out on a limb and disagree again.

You're free to do so. But what's the basis of this assessment?

I see Florida Democrat Governor candidate Andrew Gillum holding a rally with Bernie Sanders and the whole place is empty.
Barack Obama could not fill a high school gym in Milwaukee.

So? As established above, rally attendance and polling accuracy do not seem to be correlated.
Gillum's race, for example, was rated as essentially a toss-up back in September; Floridians, it seems, have largely made up their mind about who to vote for.
As for Obama... If this is the rally being referred to, it drew a crowd of about 4000 people, with the venue at capacity.
Now, sure, that's not easily comparable to someone filling up a football stadium with room for tens of thousands, but "filled to capacity" is a statement on its own, is it not.

(I know what you're thinking: Shoddy opinionating in an article smr liked? What are the odds?)

I witnessed firsthand Joe Biden and Obama at separate events here in Las Vegas playing to small crowds.

Care to tell us what those events were?

No?

Okay.

Meanwhile I was opening speaker for President Trump’s event in Las Vegas last month- with 10,000 waiting in line for hours in a place where no one cares much about politics. This is a phenomenon.

Is this Root person ever going to mention something more substantial than the lineup of idiots waiting to get ranted at by Trump?

Does that sound like the GOP is losing 40 seats? Dream on delusional Democrats.

I guess not.

Then there’s “the whispers.” Nothing has changed. Trump has fulfilled almost all of his campaign promises. He is the only politician in history who did exactly what he promised. And those same voters are whispering to me again- they love Trump now, more than ever.

And it's off to the MAGA fellation session.

Then there’s common sense. The Trump economy is BOOMING.

The latest results are out- 250,000 more jobs last month, far above what was expected. The lowest unemployment in half a century. The number of Americans employed is the highest EVER. Almost 500,000 new manufacturing jobs under Trump. The kind Obama claimed would never happen again. 1000 new manufacturing jobs a day last month- the best results since the 1990's.

Oh, OH, is he going to do it? Is he going to make a substantial, fact-based argument?

I mean, no, of course not; Admitting that economic growth in the last 21 months of the Obama admin was greater than in the first 21 months of the Trump admin is sacriledge. Admitting that the budget deficit that Obama was able to reduce by an unimaginable amount of money is now deepening rapidly again is probably also some form of treason in MAGAland.

And most importantly, wages grew by a remarkable 3.1%- the most in a decade. Who in their right mind would vote against THAT?

That could be why Trump’s approval rating among blacks is now 40%. If only white liberals weren’t blind, deaf and really dumb.

Fun fact: This statement is based on a Trump tweet, in which he cites a single poll that is a massive outlier. Personally, I wouldn't really take that as gospel, but then I am not a MAGA person.

Most importantly, Trump has brilliantly kept the emotional issue of illegal immigration front and center. He wants to block the caravan, end birthright citizenship and make it much harder for illegal aliens to claim asylum. The polls are out- 65% of likely voters in swing districts across the USA agree with Trump. The middle class will come out in record numbers for Trump. Bet on it.

Another Fun Fact: Did you know that the GOP leadership wanted Trump to stop talking about the immigrants and concentrate some more on the economy for fear that his constant and obvious lying would drive away the middle class?

In the 2014 midterm election in Texas 1.7 million voted early. This year early voting in Texas numbered over 4.3 million. With a booming economy and an illegal alien invasion in the headlines, you think they’re coming out for Democrats?

More Fun Facts! Young people, which are consistently polling as overwhelmingly in favour of the democrats, make up a large part of those early voters.

I'll go out on a limb again. I'll put my gut instincts up against every poll and pollster and political "expert." All of them...all of them...say the House is lost. But they don't have a clue what's happening. I predict they're all wrong again. The Silent Majority is whispering again- and they love Trump. They support Trump. They will reward Trump.

The "silent majority"'s defining characteristic is that they're, well, silent. They don't vote, they don't poll; Assuming that they're behind any one cause when they do vote is a folly.

I'll go out on a limb again to predict another upset for the GOP on Tuesday. We will expand our Senate majority by 3 to 6 seats. It will be very close but, the GOP will hold the House. America stays bright red- again

Democrats will be in shock and mourning. The pollsters got it all wrong again.

And Wednesday morning will be the busiest day for psychiatrists and psychologists in the history of America.

I'd be almost interested to see what happens when he's shown to be wrong, but it's honestly so drearily predictable: The usual accusations of votes being stolen, elections being manipulated, etc etc.

And, to cap it all off, the usual MAGA sendoff of hoping that the people on the other political side will be made miserable.
What a great human being this guy is.


Speaking of, who is this guy?

Let's hear this Wayne Allyn Root on a litmus test topic, and see what that tells us about him as a person. Let's choose something controversial, like Robert Mueller's penis (Disclaimer: Robert Mueller's penis has never been an object of controversy, publically or otherwise, as far as I am aware).
Anyway, here's Root:

“Robert Mueller has probably never had sex in his life,” Root said. “I know he has never had sex with a beautiful woman. Did you ever see the angry look on Robert Mueller’s face? Robert Mueller needs sex badly and he is so jealous that Donald Trump was a billionaire playboy and obviously had sex with the most beautiful women in the world.”

“Robert Mueller has penis envy,” he continued. “This is so obvious. This was high school, guys. In high school, there were handsome guys, and then there were handsome guys who were jocks, and then there were handsome guys who were jocks and had rich fathers. And that is Donald Trump. And then all the little nerds like Robert Mueller, who had never had sex in their whole lives, they hated the jocks, they hated the handsome guys, and they really hated the jocks who were handsome guys who were rich. This guy, Muller, has never had sex with a beautiful woman, so he hates Trump with a passion.”

“The greatest president in modern history, a man is trying to take him down who is a pervert,” Root added. “Robert Mueller is a pervert. He probably sits home and watches porn. He has probably never had a girl in his whole life, a beautiful woman, so he sits and watches images and then he realizes there is someone like Donald Trump who is living every man’s fantasy … [Mueller] doesn’t even know what sex feels like. Robert Mueller is an ugly lawyer, he’s got nothing going for him.”

“Mueller is a little pervert,” Root continued to rant. “Mueller is vicious, Mueller is disgusting, Mueller is a pervert. Can you imagine what he does at home at night? Who knows what he does, watching his computer images of Donald Trump and beautiful women. I can just guess what Mueller is doing in the dark, with the light of the screen glaring on him inside is office at 12 midnight. Quote me, Robert Mueller: You’re a pervert, you’re a loser, you’re ugly, you have never had a beautiful women in your life and you’re jealous of Donald Trump. It is all so clear now.”

“It’s penis envy,” Root declared triumphantly. “Mueller’s is smaller than Trump’s.”

My god, what a charmer and ~rational~ person that is. No wonder smr likes him.

The E wrote:

smr wrote:https://townhall.com/columnists/wayneallynroot/2018/11/05/vegas-oddsmaker-predicts-gop-upset-n2534861


GOP upset?!? I hope so or on Tuesday I will be drinking Margaritas (OK, I will be drinking Margaritas if they win). At least, the election hoopla will be over!

Another day, another instance of smr reading bad articles written by idiots.

Let's pick this one apart, and see which parts are bullshit.

Back in 2016 I predicted a Trump victory when no one else did. Every poll showed Trump would lose by a wide margin. Nate Silver of the NY Times predicted Hillary’s chances of winning at 92%. These pollsters make their living by polling actual human beings. I don’t. So how did I know?

Let's look at the only thing that is actually a factual assertion here, Nate Silver and his predictions for the 2016 election.
While there were predictions that put HRC's chances of winning at over 90%, Nate Silver's projections, which are based on metaanalysis of multiple polls, were notably conservative: They gave Clinton a 2 in 3 to 3 in 4 chance of winning. That she didn't should, statistically speaking, not be a surprise (it's a different story psychologically, of course).

Also, sidenote: Most of the polling was accurate. After all, Clinton did get the majority of the vote; that she didn't win the race has more to do with the weirdness of the american election system than a fundamental flaw in the polling data or its analysis.

(oh, and Nate Silver is not a pollster. He's an analyst. Important difference.)

Moving on:

Simple. First, size matters. You could see it in the rallies. Trump would attract eight hour lines and 10,000 or more attendees at wild, intense rallies all over America. I should know. I was opening speaker for six Trump campaign events here in Las Vegas.

Oh, our good friend anecdotal data, and already here so early!
Now, keeping in mind that HRC won the popular vote, post-election analysis was pretty clear that one of the reason Clinton lost was because they didn't put effort into places where they could have been competitive; A strategic error, but given that she won the popular vote, an understandable one to make.
Anyway, point being: Anecdotes aren't data. Trump being popular at rallies didn't win him the popular vote, did it?

Meanwhile Hillary was attracting 100 to 200 attendees at a rally here in Vegas. I could fit Hillary’s rallies in my living room. The same story held true across America. That was my first reason for realizing Trump was going to pull a huge upset that few saw coming.

*Yawn* More anecdotes.

Part Duex was also simple. Trump was “the whisper candidate.” Everywhere I went, people whispered in my ear, “I’m with you. I’m for Trump.” They wouldn’t tell pollsters. They wouldn't put up yard signs. No bumper stickers on their car. No mention of their support of Trump around the office watercooler. But they whispered to me. The pollsters never had a chance.

If Trump had so much "silent" support, why was the polling data for the popular vote within the usual margin of error?

Don’t look now, but it’s all happening again. Nate Silver says Democrats have a 80%+ chance of winning the House. Cook Report says Democrats will win the House by 40 seats. All the experts say it’s over- Democrats will win. I'll go out on a limb and disagree again.

You're free to do so. But what's the basis of this assessment?

I see Florida Democrat Governor candidate Andrew Gillum holding a rally with Bernie Sanders and the whole place is empty.
Barack Obama could not fill a high school gym in Milwaukee.

So? As established above, rally attendance and polling accuracy do not seem to be correlated.
Gillum's race, for example, was rated as essentially a toss-up back in September; Floridians, it seems, have largely made up their mind about who to vote for.
As for Obama... If this is the rally being referred to, it drew a crowd of about 4000 people, with the venue at capacity.
Now, sure, that's not easily comparable to someone filling up a football stadium with room for tens of thousands, but "filled to capacity" is a statement on its own, is it not.

(I know what you're thinking: Shoddy opinionating in an article smr liked? What are the odds?)

I witnessed firsthand Joe Biden and Obama at separate events here in Las Vegas playing to small crowds.

Care to tell us what those events were?

No?

Okay.

Meanwhile I was opening speaker for President Trump’s event in Las Vegas last month- with 10,000 waiting in line for hours in a place where no one cares much about politics. This is a phenomenon.

Is this Root person ever going to mention something more substantial than the lineup of idiots waiting to get ranted at by Trump?

Does that sound like the GOP is losing 40 seats? Dream on delusional Democrats.

I guess not.

Then there’s “the whispers.” Nothing has changed. Trump has fulfilled almost all of his campaign promises. He is the only politician in history who did exactly what he promised. And those same voters are whispering to me again- they love Trump now, more than ever.

And it's off to the MAGA fellation session.

Then there’s common sense. The Trump economy is BOOMING.

The latest results are out- 250,000 more jobs last month, far above what was expected. The lowest unemployment in half a century. The number of Americans employed is the highest EVER. Almost 500,000 new manufacturing jobs under Trump. The kind Obama claimed would never happen again. 1000 new manufacturing jobs a day last month- the best results since the 1990's.

Oh, OH, is he going to do it? Is he going to make a substantial, fact-based argument?

I mean, no, of course not; Admitting that economic growth in the last 21 months of the Obama admin was greater than in the first 21 months of the Trump admin is sacriledge. Admitting that the budget deficit that Obama was able to reduce by an unimaginable amount of money is now deepening rapidly again is probably also some form of treason in MAGAland.

And most importantly, wages grew by a remarkable 3.1%- the most in a decade. Who in their right mind would vote against THAT?

That could be why Trump’s approval rating among blacks is now 40%. If only white liberals weren’t blind, deaf and really dumb.

Fun fact: This statement is based on a Trump tweet, in which he cites a single poll that is a massive outlier. Personally, I wouldn't really take that as gospel, but then I am not a MAGA person.

Most importantly, Trump has brilliantly kept the emotional issue of illegal immigration front and center. He wants to block the caravan, end birthright citizenship and make it much harder for illegal aliens to claim asylum. The polls are out- 65% of likely voters in swing districts across the USA agree with Trump. The middle class will come out in record numbers for Trump. Bet on it.

Another Fun Fact: Did you know that the GOP leadership wanted Trump to stop talking about the immigrants and concentrate some more on the economy for fear that his constant and obvious lying would drive away the middle class?

In the 2014 midterm election in Texas 1.7 million voted early. This year early voting in Texas numbered over 4.3 million. With a booming economy and an illegal alien invasion in the headlines, you think they’re coming out for Democrats?

More Fun Facts! Young people, which are consistently polling as overwhelmingly in favour of the democrats, make up a large part of those early voters.

I'll go out on a limb again. I'll put my gut instincts up against every poll and pollster and political "expert." All of them...all of them...say the House is lost. But they don't have a clue what's happening. I predict they're all wrong again. The Silent Majority is whispering again- and they love Trump. They support Trump. They will reward Trump.

The "silent majority"'s defining characteristic is that they're, well, silent. They don't vote, they don't poll; Assuming that they're behind any one cause when they do vote is a folly.

I'll go out on a limb again to predict another upset for the GOP on Tuesday. We will expand our Senate majority by 3 to 6 seats. It will be very close but, the GOP will hold the House. America stays bright red- again

Democrats will be in shock and mourning. The pollsters got it all wrong again.

And Wednesday morning will be the busiest day for psychiatrists and psychologists in the history of America.

I'd be almost interested to see what happens when he's shown to be wrong, but it's honestly so drearily predictable: The usual accusations of votes being stolen, elections being manipulated, etc etc.

And, to cap it all off, the usual MAGA sendoff of hoping that the people on the other political side will be made miserable.
What a great human being this guy is.


Speaking of, who is this guy?

Let's hear this Wayne Allyn Root on a litmus test topic, and see what that tells us about him as a person. Let's choose something controversial, like Robert Mueller's penis (Disclaimer: Robert Mueller's penis has never been an object of controversy, publically or otherwise, as far as I am aware).
Anyway, here's Root:

“Robert Mueller has probably never had sex in his life,” Root said. “I know he has never had sex with a beautiful woman. Did you ever see the angry look on Robert Mueller’s face? Robert Mueller needs sex badly and he is so jealous that Donald Trump was a billionaire playboy and obviously had sex with the most beautiful women in the world.”

“Robert Mueller has penis envy,” he continued. “This is so obvious. This was high school, guys. In high school, there were handsome guys, and then there were handsome guys who were jocks, and then there were handsome guys who were jocks and had rich fathers. And that is Donald Trump. And then all the little nerds like Robert Mueller, who had never had sex in their whole lives, they hated the jocks, they hated the handsome guys, and they really hated the jocks who were handsome guys who were rich. This guy, Muller, has never had sex with a beautiful woman, so he hates Trump with a passion.”

“The greatest president in modern history, a man is trying to take him down who is a pervert,” Root added. “Robert Mueller is a pervert. He probably sits home and watches porn. He has probably never had a girl in his whole life, a beautiful woman, so he sits and watches images and then he realizes there is someone like Donald Trump who is living every man’s fantasy … [Mueller] doesn’t even know what sex feels like. Robert Mueller is an ugly lawyer, he’s got nothing going for him.”

“Mueller is a little pervert,” Root continued to rant. “Mueller is vicious, Mueller is disgusting, Mueller is a pervert. Can you imagine what he does at home at night? Who knows what he does, watching his computer images of Donald Trump and beautiful women. I can just guess what Mueller is doing in the dark, with the light of the screen glaring on him inside is office at 12 midnight. Quote me, Robert Mueller: You’re a pervert, you’re a loser, you’re ugly, you have never had a beautiful women in your life and you’re jealous of Donald Trump. It is all so clear now.”

“It’s penis envy,” Root declared triumphantly. “Mueller’s is smaller than Trump’s.”

My god, what a charmer and ~rational~ person that is. No wonder smr likes him.

Huh?

Robert Mueller comes from an affluent background, he was the Captain of the Hockey Team, the Soccer Team and the Lacrosse team in High School. He has been married to the same woman since 1966, she was a Special-Ed teacher, they met when they were 17, and they have 2 Daughters and 3 Grandchildren.

(Honestly I don't feel qualified to comment on his level of sexual attractiveness, but he seems presentable enough, and has the advantage of not being bright orange!)