TFT Snippet #11

On reflection, if even Desnair has got the message about new industry we really are seeing a wholesale transformation! However, I don't think any of the Imperial Council, except maybe Gahrnet has worked out that they can't have an industrial revolution without considerable social change. Even if the Guilds have a leading role, they will have to expand massively to accommodate new industry. As the balance of the economy changes from mainly agricultural to much more of the wealth being created from industry, there will be an increased technical/managerial/professional class who are going to want influence. The workers will be better educated and probably more concentrated. Many of the Aristos aren't going to like the results.

Further on Harchong, as a converse to the troubles of those from the North, those prominent citizens whose wealth derives from the South just found themselves in a much better relative position to "make friends and influence people".

{Oh I want a decent map of Harchong and Desnair plus the updated character list }

Weird Harold wrote:

isaac_newton wrote:BTW when they mentioned Steam automotives - do you think that they ment trains or road vehicles?

Thus far only trains have been mentioned. It is a fairly short step from Locomotives with steel wheels on rails to traction engines with broad iron wheels on dirt.

thats what I thought - it was just the word automotive that stood out - rather ambiguous!

most interesting

PeterZ wrote:
Whatever bastardized industrialized system the Desnari construct won't be nearly as efficient as that adopted by Silkiah, Dohlar, the Temple Lands and eventually Northern Harchong. That doesn't mean the output will be negligible. Only that their output per man-hour will be lower than those other nations.

Delfahrahk will come on bended knee to Irys and she will help them.

Dilandu wrote:

This depend. Japanese Empire was also pretty much aristocratic, but mabaged to became world's fifth-to-sixth industrial power by 1930s (fifth until USSR outpreformed them by mid-1930s)

Randomiser wrote:
Yes but it depends on the quality of the aristocrats and their willingness to learn and work hard at new things that are non-traditional for aristocrats. If anyone who thinks much about 'Trade' is not a gentleman, it makes it hard for the aristocrats to effectively boost a manufacturing economy while keeping their leadership position.

Agreed. Desnair either ends up accepting the need for gentlemen to engage in trade and become comparable to post Meiji Japan or the adopt a bastardized industrial system similar to what the CoGA installed during the jihad. What can't happen is for Desnair to retain societal status quo AND they industrialize en par with nations like Silkiah and Dohlar.

The more I think about it, I believe Dilandu may have more right in his view than I do. Two primary reasons. 1) Desnair is being driven by military concerns. Mostly defensive currently, but also with a general desire to hurt Charis. Defending against and eventually harming Charis requires industry comparable to Charis'. 2) All the decision makers are very young and so are more open to changes required to achieve their desired goals. Furthermore, the smartest counselor already believes they need industry, so playing on the passions of younger men should be enough to get things started. Once the first step is taken, industry can produce paving stones more quickly and cheaply with time to smoth their path.

Thank you, rfc, for returning with these wonderful snippets. I love the discussion this one has started and already have orders in for this book on publication.

It appears we are heading into another iteration of the Meiji Restoration in South Harchong. I wonder if Desnair will act as Imperial Russia down the road or as Japan during the post Restoration period? I can see things headed in either direction.

I can also see South Harchong and Desnair making common cause with the aim of fighting Charis' religious and social changes if Desnair chooses the post Meiji route. Harchong conquors them if they decide on the Imperial Russia route. One of the consequences of the Northern Harchong revolt will be to make South Harchong mortal enemies of Charis. That is so because I can't see the revolt surviving without Charisian assistance. I also don't see the revolutionaries pacifying the North without a great deal more educated folks to help out. That means an accomodation with some of the nobles in one form or another. The most obvious route will be for the revolutionaries to pacify those areas closest to the Temple Lands and letting the aristos govern the areas out West under acceptably humane policies with Charis brokering and guranteeing the terms.

Desnair is going to learn the hard way that it can't have its cake and eat it too. Cognitive dissonance is a wonderful thing - especially in the mindset of those in power who would like to continue being the EoC's enemies.

If Desnair doesn't import a gaggle of Charisian advisors, or some from some more palatable country, they'll need decades of research and investment just to get to where Silkiah is now, let alone threaten the EoC in any meaningful way. Sadly, the aristocrats are going to have to get their hands dirty and start dealing in trade and manufacturing. The days of measuring one's wealth by the amount of land one owns and the resources on that land are rapidly drawing to a close.

Luckily for Desnair the improved agricultural techniques that Charis had already perfected when Merlin arrived in OAR will displace a huge number of farm workers just when they're needed in the new manufacturing industries.

Desnair will manage to screw that up somehow. There's a reason they go to war without a supply chain!

Sounds like the stage is set for the millions of 'stranded' personnel of the MHoGatA to march home into North Harchong, possibly with RW at the head.

Randomiser wrote:
Yes but it depends on the quality of the aristocrats and their willingness to learn and work hard at new things that are non-traditional for aristocrats. If anyone who thinks much about 'Trade' is not a gentleman, it makes it hard for the aristocrats to effectively boost a manufacturing economy while keeping their leadership position.

Well, again, let's not forget that Japanese modernization was started by the most xenophobic and isolationistic domains - under the slogan of "restoring the Emperor's rule and expelling the barbarians". The Meiji revolution was powered quite a lot by the obvious inability of the Shogunate to maintain the country's isolation, which was viewed as that Shogun surrendered Japan to foreigners. And, Japanese high aristocracy were pretty much obnoxious too, considering trade & manufacturing way beneath their status.

The question is, have the Deshnari sufficiently nationalistic parts of aristocracy which may force the modernization at least as a means to "get back our rightful place"?

Dilandu wrote:

Randomiser wrote:
Yes but it depends on the quality of the aristocrats and their willingness to learn and work hard at new things that are non-traditional for aristocrats. If anyone who thinks much about 'Trade' is not a gentleman, it makes it hard for the aristocrats to effectively boost a manufacturing economy while keeping their leadership position.

Well, again, let's not forget that Japanese modernization was started by the most xenophobic and isolationistic domains - under the slogan of "restoring the Emperor's rule and expelling the barbarians". The Meiji revolution was powered quite a lot by the obvious inability of the Shogunate to maintain the country's isolation, which was viewed as that Shogun surrendered Japan to foreigners. And, Japanese high aristocracy were pretty much obnoxious too, considering trade & manufacturing way beneath their status.

The question is, have the Deshnari sufficiently nationalistic parts of aristocracy which may force the modernization at least as a means to "get back our rightful place"?

Similarly, neither the Ottoman Empire nor Imperial Russia were exactly progressive, and they both were rightly superpowers on the world stage, and they managed to industrialize enough to produce weapons in quantity in WW1.
So being reactionary is no barrier to building up advanced manufacturing capabilities, and there is a huge difference in getting weapon manufacturing capabilities, and building up a broad consumer industry.