TFT Snippet #7

I don't know why but I find RFC's tease on this subject to be particularly annoying. Probably because displacement and resettlement or return are thorny issues and I want to see how he addresses them. Especially when the government of the affected regions is trying to respect the rights of everyone involved.

runsforcelery wrote:

Julia Minor wrote:I'm a bit surprised that Rhobair didn't suggest calling on the Siddarmarkians to help with the humanitarian effort.

Maybe "surprised" is the wrong word -- after all, if Charis isn't called in, Merlin has no excuse to get involved. But we know from the last novel that there's a lot of Siddarmarkians who fall halfway between the Church of the Temple and the Church of Charis. Siddarmark has the same "street cred" of having been attacked by the Temple, is closer to Harchong geographically, and unless I hideously misread things may be closer to the Temple theologically.

OTOH, I'm now suspecting that Charis being called in to help is part of what gives Merlin a chance to check out the Temple in that out-of-order snippet.

There are a bunch of reasons not to get Siddarmark involved. Including the fact that Siddarmark's western provinces are ---

Oops. I meant Tum-Te-Tum-Te-Tum.

Dang it RFC, you beat me to it! The Border States were created as a buffer between Siddarmark and the Temple Lands, and they were an integral part of the Jihad's attack of western Siddarmark. Which means Siddarmark has a million bones or two to pick with the Border States at the moment.

I'm sure that Siddarmark would just LOVE an invitation to march an army unopposed right into several countries that actively fought against it during the Jihad. Can you say "Several new western provinces?"

Check the map and try not to chuckle as you imagine Siddarmark absorbing the Border States so its western border is now flush against the Temple Lands, and the panic that would ensue in Zion!

No, the CoGA most definitely won't be asking Siddarmark to help with this humanitarian crisis. The result would be a whole lotta payback, and a new neighbor on their eastern border. Think the Soviet Union after WWII and all the countries they occupied to create the Soviet Block, except Siddarmark would turn those countries into permanent provinces, with an economic system based on free enterprise rather than communism. That actually wouldn't be a bad deal for the Border States, once the shooting stops of course.

When Siddarmark recovers from the Jihad and resettles the western provinces, I expect it will become expansionist again, and this time it won't pay attention to any cease-fires the CoGA attempts to broker. That ship has sailed. The Border States probably ought to start trying to cut a deal now before they get invaded by a very irate Siddarmark looking for payback...

blackjack217 wrote:I could see Dolhar grabbing a province if things go to hell in a handbasket. They do border parts of North Harchong and have always been portrayed as very competent. They also have the ability to wreck the Harchongese Navy.

Harchong has a navy?

McGuiness wrote:
Dang it RFC, you beat me to it! The Border States were created as a buffer between Siddarmark and the Temple Lands, and they were an integral part of the Jihad's attack of western Siddarmark. Which means Siddarmark has a million bones or two to pick with the Border States at the moment.

I'm sure that Siddarmark would just LOVE an invitation to march an army unopposed right into several countries that actively fought against it during the Jihad. Can you say "Several new western provinces?"

Check the map and try not to chuckle as you imagine Siddarmark absorbing the Border States so its western border is now flush against the Temple Lands, and the panic that would ensue in Zion!

No, the CoGA most definitely won't be asking Siddarmark to help with this humanitarian crisis. The result would be a whole lotta payback, and a new neighbor on their eastern border. Think the Soviet Union after WWII and all the countries they occupied to create the Soviet Block, except Siddarmark would turn those countries into permanent provinces, with an economic system based on free enterprise rather than communism. That actually wouldn't be a bad deal for the Border States, once the shooting stops of course.

When Siddarmark recovers from the Jihad and resettles the western provinces, I expect it will become expansionist again, and this time it won't pay attention to any cease-fires the CoGA attempts to broker. That ship has sailed. The Border States probably ought to start trying to cut a deal now before they get invaded by a very irate Siddarmark looking for payback...

Famous last words... as we now know that Siddarmark is undergoing an economic depression as a result of the fall of the House of Quentin and the various carpetbaggers that are engaged in speculation in that area. But I never assumed that Siddarmark would have an easy road to victory or recovery given the damage caused initially by the Sword of Schueler, the massive death toll of the Starving Winter and the later migration of Temple Loyalists westward and further battle losses. Charis can serve as a safety net at most but Siddarmark needs to establish the sort of regulatory systems that are unknown on Safehold or which were always handled by the Church prior to the Jihad. The only nation in any position to become expansionist is Charis, as it's navy is both intact and the most advanced on the planet, it's land forces are also mostly intact and the most advanced and experienced on the planet and it's economy was in the best position to recovery quickly as it's civilian infrastructure was undamaged throughout the war.

And they even have a relentess ideological enemy, who really could prove deadly. Of course, said enemy is unaware of the extent of the enmity, but you can't have everything.

thanatos wrote:
Famous last words... as we now know that Siddarmark is undergoing an economic depression as a result of the fall of the House of Quentin and the various carpetbaggers that are engaged in speculation in that area. But I never assumed that Siddarmark would have an easy road to victory or recovery given the damage caused initially by the Sword of Schueler, the massive death toll of the Starving Winter and the later migration of Temple Loyalists westward and further battle losses. Charis can serve as a safety net at most but Siddarmark needs to establish the sort of regulatory systems that are unknown on Safehold or which were always handled by the Church prior to the Jihad. The only nation in any position to become expansionist is Charis, as it's navy is both intact and the most advanced on the planet, it's land forces are also mostly intact and the most advanced and experienced on the planet and it's economy was in the best position to recovery quickly as it's civilian infrastructure was undamaged throughout the war.

thanatos wrote:

McGuiness wrote:
Dang it RFC, you beat me to it! The Border States were created as a buffer between Siddarmark and the Temple Lands, and they were an integral part of the Jihad's attack of western Siddarmark. Which means Siddarmark has a million bones or two to pick with the Border States at the moment.

I'm sure that Siddarmark would just LOVE an invitation to march an army unopposed right into several countries that actively fought against it during the Jihad. Can you say "Several new western provinces?"

Check the map and try not to chuckle as you imagine Siddarmark absorbing the Border States so its western border is now flush against the Temple Lands, and the panic that would ensue in Zion!

No, the CoGA most definitely won't be asking Siddarmark to help with this humanitarian crisis. The result would be a whole lotta payback, and a new neighbor on their eastern border. Think the Soviet Union after WWII and all the countries they occupied to create the Soviet Block, except Siddarmark would turn those countries into permanent provinces, with an economic system based on free enterprise rather than communism. That actually wouldn't be a bad deal for the Border States, once the shooting stops of course.

When Siddarmark recovers from the Jihad and resettles the western provinces, I expect it will become expansionist again, and this time it won't pay attention to any cease-fires the CoGA attempts to broker. That ship has sailed. The Border States probably ought to start trying to cut a deal now before they get invaded by a very irate Siddarmark looking for payback...

Famous last words... as we now know that Siddarmark is undergoing an economic depression as a result of the fall of the House of Quentin and the various carpetbaggers that are engaged in speculation in that area. But I never assumed that Siddarmark would have an easy road to victory or recovery given the damage caused initially by the Sword of Schueler, the massive death toll of the Starving Winter and the later migration of Temple Loyalists westward and further battle losses. Charis can serve as a safety net at most but Siddarmark needs to establish the sort of regulatory systems that are unknown on Safehold or which were always handled by the Church prior to the Jihad. The only nation in any position to become expansionist is Charis, as it's navy is both intact and the most advanced on the planet, it's land forces are also mostly intact and the most advanced and experienced on the planet and it's economy was in the best position to recovery quickly as it's civilian infrastructure was undamaged throughout the war.

But Charis will be expansionist, VERY expansionist because of the very reasons you cite.

Charis will expand into the Siddermarkian economy through partnerships and investments facilitated by Owain Qwentyn and Mdme Parsons-Athrawes. They will selectively infuse gold backed notes into the Bank of Siddermark by Cayleb and Sharley backed by the wholey owned subsidiary of the House of Ahrmhk, Moyrah Load.

Charis will expand into North Harchong and help stabilize the factions there into something resembling a viable nation. The locals there have to manage the rest with or without Rainbow Waters. That fledgeling polity will need the ICN to prevent South Harchong from interfering. They nwill further need to industrialize asap to improve the lot of their common citizens. That huge population can only produce enough to keep a minute aristocracy/ruling class in luxury and everyone else in abject poverty. They need to produce enough to support their population at an acceptable level.

Charis will continue to invest in Dohlar and Silkiah. The CoC will make some headway there, but those nations will largely stay loyalist. Dohlar will continue their pre-jihad strategy of copying Charis. They will become even more merchantile and fuel a greater degree of industrialization. Dohlar and Silkiah will develop cutomers in the Border Kingdoms as the CoGA works dilligently to repay their war debt. That liquidity will flow to private entities in the Temple Lands, Desnair, the Border Kingdoms, Dohlar and Silkiah. Much of the war debt owned by Harchong entities may be subject to complication because of the rebellion. Those funds may remain in escrow held by the CoGA.

I firmly believe that Irys will find a way to smooth over relations with Delfehrahk. I suspect that any Delfehrahk investment will be funded by the Duke and Duchess of Darcos', a wholey owned subsidiary of the House of Ahrmahk, access to the Moyra Load. Again the infusion will be made in gold backed notes that encourage using the currency rather than hoarding it. I can see Delfehrahk using their newly found industry to reach out to Sodar. If Selkar and Myratha are independent, then Delfehrahk may well reach out to all three nations while Desnair is still weak and South Harchong is still focussed on stabilizing.

Desnair will have to seek assistance from Dohlar, Silkiah and Harchong in their quest to industrialize. Silkiah will tell them to pound sand. Dohlar make them pay through the nose as a matter of principle. Recall who will follow Thirsk as principle councilor. That leaves South Harchong as the primary source of technology. The CoGA will have difficulty investing anything, anywhere until their war debt is paid.

Now the biggest question in the upcomming Charisian expansion is how Greentree Island and the Barren Lands will fit into this. Between Silverlode and the Barren Lands/Greentree island, there are strategic locations that need to be colonized/populated. How will they get the population for these places? Will Charis facilitate emmigration from Howard's oppressed populations in Desnair and Harchong? Will they market to Selkar, Sodar, Delfehrahk, Harchong and Myratha for people wanting to start over and build their wealth and industry from the wilderness? The CoC and the Pasqualate Convent on Greentree will likely create the image of how both churches can work together in peace and harmony to aid those immigrants who want to sanctify the Barren Lands.

Yeah, there will be plenty of opportunity for the charisian expansion they are soley equipped to engage in.

PeterZ wrote:But Charis will be expansionist, VERY expansionist because of the very reasons you cite.

Charis will expand into the Siddermarkian economy through partnerships and investments facilitated by Owain Qwentyn and Mdme Parsons-Athrawes. They will selectively infuse gold backed notes into the Bank of Siddermark by Cayleb and Sharley backed by the wholey owned subsidiary of the House of Ahrmhk, Moyrah Load.

Charis will expand into North Harchong and help stabilize the factions there into something resembling a viable nation. The locals there have to manage the rest with or without Rainbow Waters. That fledgeling polity will need the ICN to prevent South Harchong from interfering. They nwill further need to industrialize asap to improve the lot of their common citizens. That huge population can only produce enough to keep a minute aristocracy/ruling class in luxury and everyone else in abject poverty. They need to produce enough to support their population at an acceptable level.

Charis will continue to invest in Dohlar and Silkiah. The CoC will make some headway there, but those nations will largely stay loyalist. Dohlar will continue their pre-jihad strategy of copying Charis. They will become even more merchantile and fuel a greater degree of industrialization. Dohlar and Silkiah will develop cutomers in the Border Kingdoms as the CoGA works dilligently to repay their war debt. That liquidity will flow to private entities in the Temple Lands, Desnair, the Border Kingdoms, Dohlar and Silkiah. Much of the war debt owned by Harchong entities may be subject to complication because of the rebellion. Those funds may remain in escrow held by the CoGA.

I actually think the full reversal of alliances will happen by the end of this book (Siddamark enemy, Dohlar, Silkiah and most of North Harchong as allies)