TFT Snippet #10

So, Siddermark's economic troubles are more a matter of technical issues than political ones. That is there is no aversion of adopting new techniques but simply the Republic has not reliable currency due to a lack of faith in the existing banks and banking system.

What will they do after they charter a national bank?

I suspect either Cayleb and/or Duke Delthak will bankroll Owain Qwentyn to begin a private bank in Siddermark. I suspect Owain's bank will infuse liquidity to those manufactories best suited to succeed. Furthermore, I suspect that once the central bank is chartered, Cayleb will purchase all that floating paper from the central bank. Cayleb won't buy those notes outside the central bank in order to shore up the nascent entity. Effectively, the purchases will provide a backstop to the letters of credit issued by Siddermarkian banks but only through the central bank.

Also, because Cayleb can choose which issuers in the Republic to favor, he can influence overall policies in those private banks until those letters are all redeemed. Between Owain's activities to shore up the economy, Cayleb's and Sharley's efforts to provide liquidity to the banking system and Stohnar's leadership to keep Western Siddermark from becomming as bad as it might be; I suspect Will recover within another 5 years or 10-11 years after Clyntahn's execution.

That means Silkiah, Dohlar and South Harchong will have a decade headstart to build their industries before Siddermark. This is important since Siddermark remains politically very pro-Charis despite their problems. Charisian efforts to aid Siddermark in their recovery will also shore up that political view. That suggests the nations most pro CoGA will have the strongest economy when the return happens.

The wildcard will be North Harchong. If Charisian assistance will secure Western North Harchong into a viable pro-Charis nation within 5 years, then Siddermark and Harchong's populations won't be contributing as much as other more pro-CoGA nations. Any materially driven war will be much more even under those circumstances. Charis will be required to spread their assistance over much more tenuous lines of supply and communications. Any war starting in 20-25 years will have a very interesting geopolitical dynamic based on where the industry is likely to be.

PeterZ wrote:Furthermore, I suspect that once the central bank is chartered, Cayleb will purchase all that floating paper from the central bank.

It would be universally viewed as the Cayleb attempt to buy Siddarmark. Let's not forget, that Safehold society is just-out-of-late-Middle Age.

Dilandu wrote:

PeterZ wrote:Furthermore, I suspect that once the central bank is chartered, Cayleb will purchase all that floating paper from the central bank.

It would be universally viewed as the Cayleb attempt to buy Siddarmark. Let's not forget, that Safehold society is just-out-of-late-Middle Age.

Viewed independently, you may be right. However, these people are alive because Cayleb and Sharley sent food and supplies without expecting any return or repayment after Clyntahn's Sword of Schueler. Most of them who are in the country and lived through that devastating winter KNOW Charis didn't have to help, but did anyway. They remember the marines who died defending the Republic when the Republic couldn't defend themselves.

If Cayleb buys notes, he gives the issuer the imprimatur of being worthy of an esteemed ruler's beneficence and confidence. Issuers will look to adopt policies that persuade Cayleb to add their issuances to his list. Backing Owain Qwentyn reminds the Republic of his grandfather's sacrifice to save the Republic and his uncle's petty idiocy. Bottom line is that Cayleb and Sharley haven't done anything to lose the trust of anyone in Siddermark just yet. Providing liquidity to the Republic's central bank won't do squat to damage that trust.

PeterZ wrote:Viewed independently, you may be right. However, these people are alive because Cayleb and Sharley sent food and supplies without expecting any return or repayment after Clyntahn's Sword of Schueler. Most of them who are in the country and lived through that devastating winter KNOW Charis didn't have to help, but did anyway. They remember the marines who died defending the Republic when the Republic couldn't defend themselves.

Don't overestimate the peoples gratitude. It tend to evaporate quite fast and be replaced by "it's all started because of you", "your help was not enough" and "you only helped us because you were forced to".

Just look at how fast the gratitude to Soviet Union evaporated from Europe after the World War 2. Just four years, and half of Europe went hysterical about "red scare" and other half cried "how dare they to overthrew our so-democratical military juntas and pretty tyrants!"

Dilandu wrote:

PeterZ wrote:Viewed independently, you may be right. However, these people are alive because Cayleb and Sharley sent food and supplies without expecting any return or repayment after Clyntahn's Sword of Schueler. Most of them who are in the country and lived through that devastating winter KNOW Charis didn't have to help, but did anyway. They remember the marines who died defending the Republic when the Republic couldn't defend themselves.

Don't overestimate the peoples gratitude. It tend to evaporate quite fast and be replaced by "it's all started because of you", "your help was not enough" and "you only helped us because you were forced to".

Just look at how fast the gratitude to Soviet Union evaporated from Europe after the World War 2. Just four years, and half of Europe went hysterical about "red scare" and other half cried "how dare they to overthrew our so-democratical military juntas and pretty tyrants!"

I am not relying on the Republic's gratitude in my analysis. No, the issuers of the notes are not the current holders of those notes. That means those who hold the notes and will benefit from Cayleb's purchases will be the Republic's middle class citizens. They will use the liquidity provided to begin or sustain small businesses to hire others less fortunate.

The folks that borrowed the money initially have to repay Cayleb. Any claim they make that they shouldn't have to repay those notes will stike that middle class even happier that Cayleb is taking the default risk those potential defaulters are begging to be allowed.

I don't see the downside. There may well be demogogues trying to game Cayleb's purchases for their benefit. Ok, let them try. The benefit from Cayleb's purchases will offset any spurious claims from those demogogues. In order for spurious claims to become accepted, those supporting such claims have to fund activities to maintain such false claims. There appears to be no well funded actor who can sustain such false claims in the Republic. Anyone acting from outside the republic will face the same sort of accusations of meddling but not have the history of benifcence of Cayleb and Sharley.

Glad you are well enough to be back on here again, RFC. Hope you are soon back to 100%

Thanks for the snippet.

So,
1)The west of Siddarmark has just the problems everyone suspected PLUS carpetbaggers.
2) Stohnar et all are still alive and still in office, despite fears otherwise
3) The economy is shot because the house of Qwentyn imploded and went bust and far too many people are issuing worthless paper

Don't know much about economics, but if, as PeterZ suggested, Cayleb goes around buying depreciating government scrip for good-as-gold Charisian money, I can't see how it's going to hurt his reputation with the voters in Siddarmark. (Remember they have a property qualification for the vote.)

Randomiser wrote:Glad you are well enough to be back on here again, RFC. Hope you are soon back to 100%

Thanks for the snippet.

So,
1)The west of Siddarmark has just the problems everyone suspected PLUS carpetbaggers.
2) Stohnar et all are still alive and still in office, despite fears otherwise
3) The economy is shot because the house of Qwentyn imploded and went bust and far too many people are issuing worthless paper

Don't know much about economics, but if, as PeterZ suggested, Cayleb goes around buying depreciating government scrip for good-as-gold Charisian money, I can't see how it's going to hurt his reputation with the voters in Siddarmark. (Remember they have a property qualification for the vote.)

Tum-Te-Tum-Te-Tum . . . .

Dilandu wrote:

PeterZ wrote:Viewed independently, you may be right. However, these people are alive because Cayleb and Sharley sent food and supplies without expecting any return or repayment after Clyntahn's Sword of Schueler. Most of them who are in the country and lived through that devastating winter KNOW Charis didn't have to help, but did anyway. They remember the marines who died defending the Republic when the Republic couldn't defend themselves.

Don't overestimate the peoples gratitude. It tend to evaporate quite fast and be replaced by "it's all started because of you", "your help was not enough" and "you only helped us because you were forced to".

Just look at how fast the gratitude to Soviet Union evaporated from Europe after the World War 2. Just four years, and half of Europe went hysterical about "red scare" and other half cried "how dare they to overthrew our so-democratical military juntas and pretty tyrants!"

Gee, maybe it was the fact that the Soviet Union seized Eastern Europe that made the rest of Europe distrust them. Total shocker that they didn't want to be gobbled up.

Isilith wrote:

Dilandu wrote:
Don't overestimate the peoples gratitude. It tend to evaporate quite fast and be replaced by "it's all started because of you", "your help was not enough" and "you only helped us because you were forced to".

Just look at how fast the gratitude to Soviet Union evaporated from Europe after the World War 2. Just four years, and half of Europe went hysterical about "red scare" and other half cried "how dare they to overthrew our so-democratical military juntas and pretty tyrants!"

Gee, maybe it was the fact that the Soviet Union seized Eastern Europe that made the rest of Europe distrust them. Total shocker that they didn't want to be gobbled up.

And I’m sure people did not forget that the Soviets entered WWII as Nazi allies. They only became our allies once the Germans turned on them.

I don’t think this is a good analogy to how the Siddarmarkians might view Charis.

Mark Time wrote:
And I’m sure people did not forget that the Soviets entered WWII as Nazi allies. They only became our allies once the Germans turned on them.

Considering that USSR never were German ally, I could only conclude that peoples did actually forget. Or should I remind you, that USSR troops went into Poland only after Polish government was interned in Romania, and Poland, as political entity, ceased to exist? Stalin was very scrupulous about acting by the book...