What inspired Gustav [I don't think you _can_ _provoke_ an Andie Emperor, although attacking his family does come pretty close] to finally move in Silesia was a) the belief that Haven had finally been tamed and b) the recognition that the SKM was being run by a bunch of people convinced that the only universe that really mattered lay inside the Manticore A hyperlimit. Oh, and the bit surrounding the Manticore Junction, of course.
The Andies had been planning a fix for Silesia for at least a generation. What held them back was the knowledge that Manticore wouldn't really appreciate their solution, and that distracting the Manties from the looming confrontation with Haven could prove fatal - for them. With Haven currently harmless and a High Ridge government likely to geek as long as they could save face at home, this was the best possible time for a move that probably wouldn't be fatal for anybody.
And, BTW, Himself explained years ago why it was the Grendelsbane ships that were being finished: the SD(P)s building in Manticore - which were late-flight Medusas - were completed to keep local employment up but no new ones were laid down. So when High Ridge and Janacek realised that they badly needed more, yesterday, the mothballed hulls out at Grendelsbane were all that could possibly be finished even as soon as the day after tomorrow. Hulls that were laid down in the heart of what was then a major fleet base. A base that couldn't be fully reopened because there wasn't a major fleet left to base there - those hulls were floating in a storage orbit around Yeltsin's Star.
TFLYTSNBN wrote:I would submit that by effectively annexing Marsh, Manticore needlessly provoked the Andermandi to abandon its polucy of not only neutrality in the Haven war but also as discussed in HAE, avoid small scale conflicts with the RMN in Silesia.
The RMN establishing a fleet base in Marsh alarmed the Andermandi and motivated Emperor Gustov to confront Manticore.
Of course I keep asking myself why the RMN was stupid enough to be building its new Inictus SD(P)s at a indensible shipyard at Grendelsbane.