Honor's rescue of Marsh, nearly fatal?

Just wondering how the resumption of the war might have gone if the RMN and GSN had not felt compelled to deploy ships their? The alliance might have been able to hold yhe Grendelsbane shipyards.

TFLYTSNBN wrote:Just wondering how the resumption of the war might have gone if the RMN and GSN had not felt compelled to deploy ships there? The alliance might have been able to hold yhe Grendelsbane shipyards.

They were deployed there because of prodding by the Andies. Without that threat, would Janacek have sent those forces to Grendelsbane instead? The government would never have asked for help from Grayson and were not expecting action from Haven. The only reason Honor was picked for Sidemore was the hope she would screw up or die, aside from the political benefit of getting her away from the House of Lords.

PS. AAC describes the Moriarty system, it does not mention the system defense called Mycroft.

TFLYTSNBN wrote:Just wondering how the resumption of the war might have gone if the RMN and GSN had not felt compelled to deploy ships there? The alliance might have been able to hold the Grendelsbane shipyards.

Consider that...
The GSN felt compelled to deploy ships there because Honor was sent there with inadequate forces.
Honor was sent there because of domestic politics, and because someone needed to be given Andermani provocations.
The Andies chose that course of action in part because Giancola encouraged it.
And if Giancola hadn't encouraged it as part of a strategy of creating a crisis he could solve, there wouldn't have been a second war at all.

It wouldn't have mattered. Higgins wouldn't have likely cooperated and they wouldn't have gotten to Grendelsbane in time to make a difference. I recall correctly, they barely got to Trevor's Star a week or 2 before the attack.

TFLYTSNBN wrote:Just wondering how the resumption of the war might have gone if the RMN and GSN had not felt compelled to deploy ships their? The alliance might have been able to hold yhe Grendelsbane shipyards.

Very badly. Remember, Bachfisch tripping over that RHN DD acting as a dispatch boat and informing Honor? That incident was the basis upon which Benjamin moved to reinforce Trevor's Star.

No fleet at Marsh, no Havenite forces shows up. They achieve full surprise with Thunderbolt everywhere instead of everywhere but Marsh & Trevor's Star.

TFLYTSNBN wrote:Just wondering how the resumption of the war might have gone if the RMN and GSN had not felt compelled to deploy ships there? The alliance might have been able to hold the Grendelsbane shipyards.

munroburton wrote:Very badly. Remember, Bachfisch tripping over that RHN DD acting as a dispatch boat and informing Honor? That incident was the basis upon which Benjamin moved to reinforce Trevor's Star.
No fleet at Marsh, no Havenite forces shows up. They achieve full surprise with Thunderbolt everywhere instead of everywhere but Marsh & Trevor's Star.

That is not the correct timeline. The Protector's Own was sent to reinforce Honor's inadequate forces against the Andies and Honor had discussed their deployment before she arrived on station. They arrived at Sidemore in chapter 29 of War of Honor. Bachfisch did not see the destroyers until chapter 45. The forces only left Haven in chapter 40.
If Honor had not been sent to Sidemore, then only RFC knows what would have happened with the Andies and Silesia.

PS. AAC describes the Moriarty system, it does not mention the system defense called Mycroft.

tlb wrote:

munroburton wrote:Very badly. Remember, Bachfisch tripping over that RHN DD acting as a dispatch boat and informing Honor? That incident was the basis upon which Benjamin moved to reinforce Trevor's Star.
No fleet at Marsh, no Havenite forces shows up. They achieve full surprise with Thunderbolt everywhere instead of everywhere but Marsh & Trevor's Star.

That is not the correct timeline. The Protector's Own was sent to reinforce Honor's inadequate forces and Honor had discussed their deployment before she arrived on station. They arrived at Sidemore in chapter 29 of War of Honor. Bachfisch did not see the destroyers until chapter 45.
If Honor had not been sent to Sidemore, then only RFC knows what would have happened with the Andies and Silesia.

PS. AAC describes the Moriarty system, it does not mention the system defense called Mycroft.

I'm not talking about the initial deployment to Sidemore, I'm talking about the emergency deployment to Trevor's Star after Bachfisch spotted the Havenite destroyers.

Those Havenite DDs were only near Silesia to support Second Fleet in its mission of destroying the Sidemore Task Force.

The scenario posed by the OP was:

TFLYTSNBN wrote:Just wondering how the resumption of the war might have gone if the RMN and GSN had not felt compelled to deploy ships their? The alliance might have been able to hold yhe Grendelsbane shipyards.

One in which the RMN and GSN did not deploy anything to Marsh, thereby preventing the following process from taking place:

RMN deploys to Marsh, followed by Protector's Own.
RHN deploys Tourville to attack Sidemore.
Bachfisch spots Tourville's DDs, alerts Honor.
Honor alerts Manticore, which ignores the warning.
White Haven goes to Grayson and brings the Trevor's Star reinforcements.

It is quite clear that had the RMN abandoned Sidemore, the Allies would not have had any warning for Thunderbolt. They then lose Trevor's Star because the Grayson fleet is parked at Yeltsin.

My conclusion is that the forces deployed to Sidemore ended up accidentally and indirectly saving Trevor's Star. Reallocating the Allied and RHN assets present at Marsh to the other battles of Thunderbolt should not change their individual outcomes.

The only material change would have been Grayson reinforcing Grayson instead of(or along with) Trevor's Star. It's not clear whether they had enough time to reach Grendelsbane even if they had chosen to reinforce that.

munroburton wrote:Very badly. Remember, Bachfisch tripping over that RHN DD acting as a dispatch boat and informing Honor? That incident was the basis upon which Benjamin moved to reinforce Trevor's Star.
No fleet at Marsh, no Havenite forces shows up. They achieve full surprise with Thunderbolt everywhere instead of everywhere but Marsh & Trevor's Star.

-- snip of incorrect comments by me --

munroburton wrote:I'm not talking about the initial deployment to Sidemore, I'm talking about the emergency deployment to Trevor's Star after Bachfisch spotted the Havenite destroyers.

Those Havenite DDs were only near Silesia to support Second Fleet in its mission of destroying the Sidemore Task Force.

The scenario posed by the OP was:

TFLYTSNBN wrote:Just wondering how the resumption of the war might have gone if the RMN and GSN had not felt compelled to deploy ships there? The alliance might have been able to hold the Grendelsbane shipyards.

One in which the RMN and GSN did not deploy anything to Marsh, thereby preventing the following process from taking place:

RMN deploys to Marsh, followed by Protector's Own.
RHN deploys Tourville to attack Sidemore.
Bachfisch spots Tourville's DDs, alerts Honor.
Honor alerts Manticore, which ignores the warning.
White Haven goes to Grayson and brings the Trevor's Star reinforcements.

It is quite clear that had the RMN abandoned Sidemore, the Allies would not have had any warning for Thunderbolt. They then lose Trevor's Star because the Grayson fleet is parked at Yeltsin.

My conclusion is that the forces deployed to Sidemore ended up accidentally and indirectly saving Trevor's Star. Reallocating the Allied and RHN assets present at Marsh to the other battles of Thunderbolt should not change their individual outcomes.

The only material change would have been Grayson reinforcing Grayson instead of(or along with) Trevor's Star. It's not clear whether they had enough time to reach Grendelsbane even if they had chosen to reinforce that.

Sorry about misreading your post. You are correct that the discovery of the destroyers led to the reinforcement of Trevor's Star. Your conclusion probably applies in the case that someone other than Honor had been sent to Sidemore; because then Tourville's force would most likely have reinforced the attack on Trevor's Star.

PS. AAC describes the Moriarty system, it does not mention the system defense called Mycroft.

drothgery wrote:And if Giancola hadn't encouraged it as part of a strategy of creating a crisis he could solve, there wouldn't have been a second war at all.

Well, it certainly wouldn't have played out the same way. But even without his playing with the correspondence High Ridge would have kept stalling any attempt at peace talks. But President Pritchart wouldn't have much choice except to keep revealing more of the strength of her shiny new navy, or possibly start deploying it provocatively, in an attempt to get Manticore to negotiate.

It's hardly impossible that even without Giancola that this kind of high stakes attempt to pressure High Ridge would have caused someone to misstep and start the war (whether High Ridge ordering a preemptive strike or Eloise eventually reluctantly ordering Theisman to resume limited combat to force Manticore to negotiate -- possibly still with a preemptive strike on Grendlesbane to remove the next wave of modern reinforcements)

I would submit that by effectively annexing Marsh, Manticore needlessly provoked the Andermandi to abandon its polucy of not only neutrality in the Haven war but also as discussed in HAE, avoid small scale conflicts with the RMN in Silesia.
The RMN establishing a fleet base in Marsh alarmed the Andermandi and motivated Emperor Gustov to confront Manticore.

Of course I keep asking myself why the RMN was stupid enough to be building its new Inictus SD(P)s at a indensible shipyard at Grendelsbane.