Hit rates and size of pre-Apollo MDMs

Hello,

I was thinking about the hit rates and sizes of pre-Apollo Havenite MDMs in WoH and AAC. I did some analysis and I was able to draw some pretty startling conclusions. I will discuss Manticoran MDM hit rates and MDM sizes in another post.



Case 1: 12 Havenite SD(P)s from Second Fleet during the Second Battle of Marsh at medium (~30M km) range.
I estimate that the 12 SD(P)s in the Second Fleet managed to launch 15,000-20,000 MDMs before being destroyed or mission-killed. Out of these, based on the description of Task Force 34 damage (it lists 2 BCs and 3 CLs/SSs destroyed, 3 SD(P)s and 3 SDs with light/medium damage), I would estimate about 1,000 MDMs hit a target, which means a hit rate of of 3.3%-5%.

Case 2: 6 Havenite SD(P)s under Admiral Giscard's during the Battle of Solon at long (~50M km) range.
269 hits out of 10,800 MDMs (under partial control) means a hit rate of 2.5%.

Case 3: A Havenite Moriarty platform using system defence pods during the Battle of Solon at medium (~40M km) range.
1811 hits out of 17,000 MDMs (under optimum control by a Moriarty platform) means a hit rate of 10.7%.

Case 4: 32 Havenite SD(P)s from Second Fleet during the first phase of the Second Battle of Zanzibar at extreme (55M-60M km) range.
Both sides burned through most of their MDM pods, so we can estimate that 32 Havenite SD(P)s launched about 120,000 of their 160,000 MDMs. The effect is not described as crippling on the RMN's 18 SDs and SD(P)s, so there cannot be more than 1,500-3,000 hits, which means a hit rate of barely 1.3-2.5%.

Case 5: 240 Havenite SD(P)s from Second Fleet during the first phase of the Battle of Manticore at extreme (55M-65M km) range.
The Second Fleet fired 524,000 missiles. If the SDs and SD(P)s account for 90% of the total hits (10% were hits on BCs, CAs and LACs) and each one took 300-400 hits to be destroyed (due to overkill), this computes to 30,000-40,000 total hits out of 524,000 missiles, and means a hit rate of 5.7%-6.3%.

Case 6: An average of 96 (118 at the start, 75 at the end) Havenite SD(P)s from the Second Fleet and 90 (96 at the start, 85 at the end) Havenite SD(P)s from the Fifth Fleet during the second phase of the Battle of Manticore at medium (~30M km) range.
Supposing that during the 11 minutes of the engagement the Fifth Fleet's SD(P)s fired at the maximum rate (300 missiles/minute), while the Second Fleet's SD(P)s fired at 50% of that (150 missiles/minute) in order to conserve ammunition, it would mean a total of 455,400 missiles. If the SDs and CLACs account for 95% of the total hits (5% were hits on LACs) and each of the 55 SD(P)s took 250-350 hits (a few survived), while each of the 12 CLACs took 150-250 hits (a few survived), this computes to 16,400-23,400 hits out of 455,400 missiles, and means a hit rate of 3.6%-5.1%.



Side discussion 1: Under average conditions a Havenite SD(P) seems to be able to generate a hit rate of 2.5%-6%, which translates to 125-300 hits out of 5,000 stored MDMs at medium range or higher.
Conclusion 2: If a RMN SD or SD(P) needs to be hit by 250 MDMs to be destroyed or mission-killed, the RHN needs to to have between 0.8 and 2 SD(P)s full of ammunition to ensure its destruction in one pass (without the resupply tactics used by Admiral Tourville during the Second Battle of Zanzibar).



Side discussion 2:
- RHN should know that Admiral Harrington would have the moral courage to order Task Force 34 withdrawal if she sees from the initial MDM exchange that her force cannot win, and would certainly not wait for the enemy SD(P)s to be resupplied with pods and get back before fleeing into hyper.
- TF 34 capital ships still had a small acceleration advantage, so Admiral Harrington would order the same lateral evasion maneuver on the nearest direction to the hyper limit actually used by Admiral Tourville.
- That maneuver would prevent the two forces closing to SDM or energy range, so the only way for Admiral Tourville that can prevent it would be the destruction of the Task Force 34 capital ships by long-range MDM fire. The rest of Second Fleet units (34 pre-pod SDs, 8 CLACs with ~2,000 LACs and 24 BCs) would not be able to prevent the retreat of TF 34 in any way.
- In order to destroy or mission-kill the 6 SD(P)s, 25 SDs, 11 DNs and 4 CLACs of Task Force 34, each of them would need to be hit by at least 250 MDMs, or a total of minimum 11,500 MDM hits.
- The Second Fleet's 12 SD(P)s each carry 500 pods of 10 MDMs each, for a total of 60,000 MDMs.
- Therefore, the RNH Second Fleet would have to generate 11,500 hits using only 60,000 MDMs, which results in a needed hit rate of at least 19.2%, which is 3-4 times higher then its highest rate achieved by Havenite SD(P)s in combat (see above).
- The total of 60,000 MDMs supposes that no Havenite SD(P) gets destroyed or mission-killed by the enemy before firing its 5,000 MDMs, while the total 11,500 hits supposes an uniform distribution of hits (no overkill on some ships while others escape lightly).
- If, for example, Admiral Harrington's 6 Medusa-class SD(P)s manage to destroy 6 Havenite SD(P)s with half of their pods still in their cores before being destroyed themselves and an average of 300 hits on RMN capital ships is needed to ensure that no ship is hit by less than 250 MDMs, the needed hit rate of RHN MDMs jumps to 30.7% !
Conclusion 2 (you will like this): Admiral Marquette (chief of RHN staff) was high on the good stuff when he estimated that 12 SD(P)s would be anywhere near enough to destroy Task Force 34. Even under the best conditions Admiral Marquette should have allocated at least 24-32 SD(P)s to ensure the destruction of Task Force 34 at Marsh or should have nixed the operation. Perhaps Admiral Tourville should have pointed this out to him.
To contrast with the most glaring example I can think of, Admiral Marquette allocated 8 SD(P)s to attack Maastricht, which was picketed 3 SDs, 1 CLAC and 4 BCs (and even then RHN lost one destroyed SD(P), one crippled SD(P) and two destroyed BCs). That RMN picket was 11 times weaker in heavy capital ships and 9 times weaker in BCs than Task Force 34, yet Thunderbolt plans called for it to be attacked by a force with two thirds of the SD(P)s allocated to the Second Fleet !

Zanzibar is weird. Essentially what David says happened was that the Haven forces used MDMs from around the hyper limit to pop industrial platforms in orbit around the inhabited planet. Uh, what? How come they didn’t pop the industrial platforms around Spinx and Manticore fromthe hyper limit?

Anyhow this forced the RMN mobile detachment to maneuver out to drive them away and both shot off most of their ammo and put themselves on a trajectory such that they were very close to the hyperlimit but inside the hyperlimit.

David says the RMN didn’t do anything so stupid as shoot themselves dry and retained a reasonable ammo reserve.

Anyhow at an inopportune moment the Haven forces emerged from Hyper and destroyed the RMN force. And the return fire of a dozen or so RMN SD(P) firing quad patterns from tractored pods managed to not do any significant damage because of... I have no idea.

kzt wrote:Zanzibar is weird. Essentially what David says happened was that the Haven forces used MDMs from around the hyper limit to pop industrial platforms in orbit around the inhabited planet. Uh, what? How come they didn’t pop the industrial platforms around Spinx and Manticore fromthe hyper limit?

Anyhow this forced the RMN mobile detachment to maneuver out to drive them away and both shot off most of their ammo and put themselves on a trajectory such that they were very close to the hyperlimit but inside the hyperlimit.

David says the RMN didn’t do anything so stupid as shoot themselves dry and retained a reasonable ammo reserve.

Anyhow at an inopportune moment the Haven forces emerged from Hyper and destroyed the RMN force. And the return fire of a dozen or so RMN SD(P) firing quad patterns from tractored pods managed to not do any significant damage because of... I have no idea.

Yes, I am preparing an analysis of RMN MDM hit rates that should cover the Zanzibar oddity.

kzt wrote:Zanzibar is weird. Essentially what David says happened was that the Haven forces used MDMs from around the hyper limit to pop industrial platforms in orbit around the inhabited planet. Uh, what? How come they didn’t pop the industrial platforms around Spinx and Manticore fromthe hyper limit?

Anyhow this forced the RMN mobile detachment to maneuver out to drive them away and both shot off most of their ammo and put themselves on a trajectory such that they were very close to the hyperlimit but inside the hyperlimit.

David says the RMN didn’t do anything so stupid as shoot themselves dry and retained a reasonable ammo reserve.

Anyhow at an inopportune moment the Haven forces emerged from Hyper and destroyed the RMN force. And the return fire of a dozen or so RMN SD(P) firing quad patterns from tractored pods managed to not do any significant damage because of... I have no idea.

Yes, there was not a peep anywhere about Havenite losses at Zanzibar. I think that half the force (16 SD(P)s and a few CLACs) would be the minimum plausible figure.

I think sending only 12 SD(P)s in the Second Fleet to destroy Task Force 34 is even more strange as that 'plan' (as I have said, Admiral Marquette must have composed it during a psychedelic experience) would need 20%-30% MDM hit rates for it to have worked.

Hegemon wrote:I think sending only 12 SD(P)s in the Second Fleet to destroy Task Force 34 is even more strange as that 'plan' (as I have said, Admiral Marquette must have composed it during a psychedelic experience) would need 20%-30% MDM hit rates for it to have worked.

Is that assessment based on only Task Force 34 being present, without the Protector's Own?

Being fair to the Havenites, Second Fleet was meant to face only 6 Medusas(plus a collection of obsolete deathtraps) and pin them against Sidemore Station. They ended up pincered between 18 Medusas instead.

There was also meant to be an element of surprise, which was blown when Bachfisch tripped over a Havenite destroyer. As a result of that, Honor was able to lay a carefully prepared ambush which maximised her assets, rather than being caught in orbit with too many cold impellers to react effectively.

It has been suggested/implied by people in contact with David Weber that certain battles are less carefully worked it terms of hit rates, interception rates, etc. which implies that some are not so carefully done. No ideas as to how accurate this is.

munroburton wrote:

Hegemon wrote:I think sending only 12 SD(P)s in the Second Fleet to destroy Task Force 34 is even more strange as that 'plan' (as I have said, Admiral Marquette must have composed it during a psychedelic experience) would need 20%-30% MDM hit rates for it to have worked.

Is that assessment based on only Task Force 34 being present, without the Protector's Own?

Being fair to the Havenites, Second Fleet was meant to face only 6 Medusas(plus a collection of obsolete deathtraps) and pin them against Sidemore Station. They ended up pincered between 18 Medusas instead.

There was also meant to be an element of surprise, which was blown when Bachfisch tripped over a Havenite destroyer. As a result of that, Honor was able to lay a carefully prepared ambush which maximised her assets, rather than being caught in orbit with too many cold impellers to react effectively.

The answer is yes, it is based only on Task Force 34. See the first post in the thread for details.

kzt wrote:It has been suggested/implied by people in contact with David Weber that certain battles are less carefully worked it terms of hit rates, interception rates, etc. which implies that some are not so carefully done. No ideas as to how accurate this is.

A simple way to describe the problem is that Admiral Marquette:
- earmarked 8 SD(P)s and ~6 BCs to attack Maastricht System defended by 3 SDs, 1 CLAC and 4 BCs (even with 3:1 superiority against pre-pods, the Havenites had one SD(P) destroyed, one SD(P) crippled and two BCs destroyed);
- earmarked 12 SD(P)s (along with 34 SDs, 8 CLACs and 24 BCs useful only for anti-missile and anti-LAC defense) to attack 6 SD(P)s, 25 SDs, 11 DNs, 4 CLACs and 36 BCs (11 times the heavy capital ships and 9 times the BCs).

Hegemon wrote:A simple way to describe the problem is that Admiral Marquette:
- earmarked 8 SD(P)s and ~6 BCs to attack Maastricht System defended by 3 SDs, 1 CLAC and 4 BCs (even with 3:1 superiority against pre-pods, the Havenites had one SD(P) destroyed, one SD(P) crippled and two BCs destroyed);
- earmarked 12 SD(P)s (along with 34 SDs, 8 CLACs and 24 BCs useful only for anti-missile and anti-LAC defense) to attack 6 SD(P)s, 25 SDs, 11 DNs, 4 CLACs and 36 BCs (11 times the heavy capital ships and 9 times the BCs).

I see your point now. Yes, Second Fleet was probably not enough to eradicate TF34 and occupy Marsh the same way Maastricht was.

However, IIRC, its mission was merely to attack and destroy/cripple the 6 Medusas, then withdraw. Destruction of the entire TF34 was optional. Where it went wrong was, the Protector's Own didn't let them stack enough pods to deliver that killing punch through TF34's antimissile defenses.

munroburton wrote:

Hegemon wrote:A simple way to describe the problem is that Admiral Marquette:
- earmarked 8 SD(P)s and ~6 BCs to attack Maastricht System defended by 3 SDs, 1 CLAC and 4 BCs (even with 3:1 superiority against pre-pods, the Havenites had one SD(P) destroyed, one SD(P) crippled and two BCs destroyed);
- earmarked 12 SD(P)s (along with 34 SDs, 8 CLACs and 24 BCs useful only for anti-missile and anti-LAC defense) to attack 6 SD(P)s, 25 SDs, 11 DNs, 4 CLACs and 36 BCs (11 times the heavy capital ships and 9 times the BCs).

I see your point now. Yes, Second Fleet was probably not enough to eradicate TF34 and occupy Marsh the same way Maastricht was.

However, IIRC, its mission was merely to attack and destroy/cripple the 6 Medusas, then withdraw. Destruction of the entire TF34 was optional. Where it went wrong was, the Protector's Own didn't let them stack enough pods to deliver that killing punch through TF34's antimissile defenses.

If the mission given the Second Fleet by Admiral Marquette
was simply to destroy the 6 Medusas and (let's say) the 4 CLACs, while accepting that the bulk of the remaining 36 SDs/DNs and 36 BCs would most probably escape, it might have made sense. It would need 2500-3000 hits out of 60000 MDMs, or a 4.2-5% hit rate. Even so, he should have been prepared to lose at least 6 of the Second Fleet's 12 SD(P)s in the exchange.