TFT Snippet #4

Looking at the most current map on Joe Buckley's site, I find Tiegelkamp in an interesting logistical position. There appears to be just one navigable river leading from Chaing-wu, where I believe the capitol of the Harchong Empire is. This appears to make any rebellion in Tiegelkamp vulnerable to an imperial response. However, that river also makes the supply lines vulnerable to a Charisian response. Furthermore, Tiegelkamp is closest to Claw Island and support for any Harchong serf rebellion. Also, Tiegelkamp is also the closest North Harchong province to Queiroz, the province that appears to have some very liberal views on escaped serfs making it to Greentree Island.

The question is whether Charis supports the rebellion or not? Well, maybe not that but just how much they will support the rebellion. One hopes they will support it enough to establish a foothold of liberalism in North Harchong. That hope might precipitate Queiroz fronting some sort of compromise solution in Tiegelkamp. Will that solution survive until the Return? Not sure, but I suspect this means that whatever results from this rebellion will be the open sore that festers unresolved issues that will spark the hostilities initiating the next phase of the war with the CoGA.

PeterZ wrote:The question is whether Charis supports the rebellion or not? Well, maybe not that but just how much they will support the rebellion. One hopes they will support it enough to establish a foothold of liberalism in North Harchong. That hope might precipitate Queiroz fronting some sort of compromise solution in Tiegelkamp. Will that solution survive until the Return? Not sure, but I suspect this means that whatever results from this rebellion will be the open sore that festers unresolved issues that will spark the hostilities initiating the next phase of the war with the CoGA.

I doubt this will be a single organized revolution, but a series of revolts, with each group having different motivations. Some may indeed fight for some liberal order, others will simply want to supplant the nobles. This may well end up in a 100 way civil war no one sane wants to get involved, also every side is pretty much guaranteed to be responsible for some massacres.
Open involvement with rebels may also taint Charis relation with other nations, making them fear they will support a regime change when it comes to them. Some hidden support I'd consider more probable, Charis captured enough church rifles and artillery to fit out several armies, but again that depends on how cold blooded they are in handing out weapons they know will be used in massacres.

Just as in the Honorverse, Charisian supporters of the Harchong serfs will lament their brutality employed by the rebels, but not really condemn people fighting to be free from the systematic brutality of the nobles. How different are those noble victimizes from Clyntahn's Inquisition? Not the reformed Inquisition of course, but the corrupt Inquisition that uses just authority as an excuse to abuse. Cayleb and Sharley shouldn't be afraid of getting tarred with support for any support they offer to anyone wishing to fight injustice and systemic corruption and abuse.

The more Charis offers support to movements questioning unjust authority, the better they set up their final showdown with the sleepers.

Whitecold wrote:

PeterZ wrote:The question is whether Charis supports the rebellion or not? Well, maybe not that but just how much they will support the rebellion. One hopes they will support it enough to establish a foothold of liberalism in North Harchong. That hope might precipitate Queiroz fronting some sort of compromise solution in Tiegelkamp. Will that solution survive until the Return? Not sure, but I suspect this means that whatever results from this rebellion will be the open sore that festers unresolved issues that will spark the hostilities initiating the next phase of the war with the CoGA.

I doubt this will be a single organized revolution, but a series of revolts, with each group having different motivations. Some may indeed fight for some liberal order, others will simply want to supplant the nobles. This may well end up in a 100 way civil war no one sane wants to get involved, also every side is pretty much guaranteed to be responsible for some massacres.
Open involvement with rebels may also taint Charis relation with other nations, making them fear they will support a regime change when it comes to them. Some hidden support I'd consider more probable, Charis captured enough church rifles and artillery to fit out several armies, but again that depends on how cold blooded they are in handing out weapons they know will be used in massacres.

Whitecold wrote:Open involvement with rebels may also taint Charis relation with other nations, making them fear they will support a regime change when it comes to them. Some hidden support I'd consider more probable, Charis captured enough church rifles and artillery to fit out several armies, but again that depends on how cold blooded they are in handing out weapons they know will be used in massacres.

Indeed. However, there are going to be massacres either way. Does Charis supply weapons to help the rebels massacre the loyalists, or refrain and thus help the loyalists massacre the rebels? There are never easy answers in these situations. Think about Western involvement or abstention in all sorts of "insurrections" in RL.

Direwolf18 wrote:Oh hohohohoho... I hope Rainbow Waters makes these bastards lives MISERABLE.

He has the oportunity to very much be a Washington-esque figure, father of his nation. I fully expected him to end up in south harchong but if he shows up in north harchong to lead a peasant rebellion... wow...

He ain't got anything to do with making their lives miserable.

Best the Northern Harchong can hope for is that he shows up in time to save a few of their lives. His voice is about the only one that is going to be listened to.

The minute I read the harebrained idea of raising a peasant army in Harchong to fight Charis, I knew the genie was not just going to escape but also break the bottle.

What's gonna happen when an uncoordinated cadre of individuals from the AoG gets organized and reinforced by more of their brethren?

Every serf and peasant in the whole country has an axe to grind and there's bunches and bunches of them. See what when they get knocked into shape and go from rabble to something resembling real soliders? Those that survive are only going to get better and become teachers to the newer recruits.

Charis doesn't really need to do anything. If I was making the decisions, I would stay obviously out of it and, maybe, the Senjin network could do a little unofficial passing along of recon and Intel on occasion.

The only force Harchong has that can handle the revolts is the Spears and they seem to be long on brutality and short on tactics. Every successful ambush and raid will glean more weapons, supplies and recruits to the rebels. Think Spartacus' revolt. The Spears will learn eventually, so that will change but how fast and will it be fast enough? You know that the Spears are going to have to go onto the offensive if for no other reason than to try to regain the initiative.

On the other hand, the AoG troopers are really good at defensive warfare, too. Don't think that I would like being in the assault force of one of their strongholds. If they can give Green Valley pause, what do you think they can do to the Spears if given the time to prepare?

I see South Harchong separating from North Harchong. I agree there will likely be multiple rebel groups and Charis or more likely the Church/Siddarmak will side with one of those groups. Given Ducairn's new found faith we see towards the end. I am hard pressed to believe he wouldn't side with the rebels. He see's the way the tea leaves are blowing. Besides it would be the best way for him to keep his flock.

Louis R wrote:To be honest, I rather doubt that he's anywhere in the area. I'm not sure whether he's in Zion or wherever he got his family to, but _he'_s not in North Harchong.

I agree he is not in the area, I just am hoping that wherever he is whatever he is currently doing is properly infuriating. My money is in currently or that he winds up in South Harchong. The split between the two seems immenent, and with them welcoming the veterans home with open arms, and if he were to end up in charge, they would be able to make it stand up fairly easily. Assuming no wandering Sejin, or outright Imperial Charisan support they would still be able to kick the north harchong empires ass up one side down another.

Direwolf18 wrote:
I agree he is not in the area, I just am hoping that wherever he is whatever he is currently doing is properly infuriating. My money is in currently or that he winds up in South Harchong. The split between the two seems immenent, and with them welcoming the veterans home with open arms, and if he were to end up in charge, they would be able to make it stand up fairly easily. Assuming no wandering Sejin, or outright Imperial Charisan support they would still be able to kick the north harchong empires ass up one side down another.

Oooohhhhh! Seijins acting on behalf of folks other than Charis. If the story is the Seijin are supporting the rebellion independent of EoC, that really plays into the fundamentalism of the Harchongese serfs. It also begins to separate those serfs from the Harchongese clergy if not the CoGA. Only Duchairn can prevent that if the Seijin go all in for the serfs.

PeterZ wrote:

Direwolf18 wrote:
I agree he is not in the area, I just am hoping that wherever he is whatever he is currently doing is properly infuriating. My money is in currently or that he winds up in South Harchong. The split between the two seems immenent, and with them welcoming the veterans home with open arms, and if he were to end up in charge, they would be able to make it stand up fairly easily. Assuming no wandering Sejin, or outright Imperial Charisan support they would still be able to kick the north harchong empires ass up one side down another.

Oooohhhhh! Seijins acting on behalf of folks other than Charis. If the story is the Seijin are supporting the rebellion independent of EoC, that really plays into the fundamentalism of the Harchongese serfs. It also begins to separate those serfs from the Harchongese clergy if not the CoGA. Only Duchairn can prevent that if the Seijin go all in for the serfs.

Ahh but North Harchong goverment has essentially disowned Duchairn (and his reforms) and Maigwar and his training of the serfs, so any Sejinn operating supporting the peasants and serfs; well as far as the serfs are concerned they would be... aligned?... with Duchairn. They would be able to operate freely, the serfs would essentially say, they (the sejinn) opposed Clynthan and the Inquisition, and they are now opposing the oppressive nobles in Harchong, definitely God's mortal champions.

That's a good point about a Seijin acting on behalf the peasants themselves. Getting there own separate of the EoC would be huge for them. Also they could start trying to twist church doctrine to being more in line with the EoC.