Disadvantages of Allies

[quote="cthia"]What about vis-à-vis the Peep/Manty alliance, in response to the danger that was once the obese gorilla who had consumed a lot of hapless twinkies?

With or without SPOILERS?? We had that seriously heated argument on another topic.

The name is Grand Alliance. Conventional wisdom is that Grand Alliances are inherently unstable and soon fall apart. But that is generally in reference to coalition govenments where no major party wins enough support in the Parlaiment (knessett, whatever) to form a gove4nment without a coalition party's help.

SPOILER ALERT of a minor, almost insignificant variety:

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Nothing will happen until Madame President Eloise Pritchard is no longer in office. She has 3 terms, and she and QE III have become genuine friends. They will personally, through force of personality, hold the alliance together for that long.

winsettz wrote:Not necessarily, more that the reason for the friendship has changed. Haven and Manticore are friends (or at least, not fighting anymore), that doesn't necessarily mean Manticore/Grayson special relationship isn't going anywhere. Haven is unlikely to get between the two.

cthia wrote:The old adage rings true...

"The enemy of my enemy is my friend."

But when your enemy is no longer your enemy, are you no longer my friend?

Grayson: The Salamander sealed that relationship in ceramacrete with Benjamin doing his best to seal the deal. Will take some government much worse (or perhaps longer lasting) than Janacek's one to split Grayson off.

What about the US & Canada? Worlds longest and least militarized border, we may not always get along but can anyone seriously predict it will become similar to the Indian/Pakistani border?

Erewhon will always be a question as will Maya (Barregos) in the long term.

pappilon wrote:They will personally, through force of personality, hold the alliance together for that long.

Sure. Politicians can push policies that are not in the national interest or not generally supported by the population. When they are not in office these policies will tend to revert.

What is or this sort of long-term relationship is or is not in national interest of the entirety of Haven (which is a lot bigger than New Pairs), is perceived by the political class as such or supported by the general population is unclear to me.

There are definitely significant movers and shakers in Haven who have different opinions on this.

I recalled coming across an example of this vis-à-vis China, Russia and the U.S. Took a while to scare it up, but...


Closer Relationship

In the late 60's and at the height of the Cold War both countries had a reason to start negotiating in hopes of a rapprochement. For China, the border clashes with the Soviet Union in 1969 meant that a closer relationship with the U.S. might provide China with a good counterbalance to the Soviets. The same effect was important for the United States as it looked for ways to increase its alignments against the Soviet Union in the Cold War. The rapprochement was symbolized by the historic visit of Nixon and Kissinger to China.

Post-Soviet Union

The disintegration of the Soviet Union re-inserted a tension into the relationship as both countries lost a common enemy and the United States became an undisputed global hegemon. Adding to the tension is China's ascent as a global economic power and the expansion of its influence to resource-rich areas such as Africa, offering an alternative model to the United States, usually termed the Beijing consensus . The more recent opening of the Chinese economy has meant closer and increased trade relationships between both countries.

cthia wrote:What about vis-à-vis the Peep/Manty alliance, in response to the danger that was once the obese gorilla who had consumed a lot of hapless twinkies?

winsettz wrote:Not necessarily, more that the reason for the friendship has changed. Haven and Manticore are friends (or at least, not fighting anymore), that doesn't necessarily mean Manticore/Grayson special relationship isn't going anywhere. Haven is unlikely to get between the two.

cthia wrote:The old adage rings true...

"The enemy of my enemy is my friend."

But when your enemy is no longer your enemy, are you no longer my friend?

Old alliances can become stale, eventually holding a signatory back from further progress.

Oops, almost forgot. Alliances are bound by agreements. Suddenly I'm very interested in the concrete details of the Peep/Manty alliance. Ideas such as carrot and stick come to mind. What are the penalties of breaking an alliance? Who and how would it be enforced between Haven and Manticore? I would suppose UH illuminates some of this.

What exactly is the continued carrot and stick vis a vis Haven and Manticore? I know, I know. Spoilers. Price of being a virgin. Drats and rats.

cthia wrote:What exactly is the continued carrot and stick vis a vis Haven and Manticore? I know, I know. Spoilers. Price of being a virgin. Drats and rats.

I think it's "We, the RMN, will give you, the RHN, the entirety of the last 70 years of R&D. You, the RHN, promise that you won't come and kick our asses using your massively larger navy and your total understanding of our technology. And if you do come and kick our asses we won't invite the President to the Queen's birthday celebration."

cthia wrote:Oops, almost forgot. Alliances are bound by agreements. Suddenly I'm very interested in the concrete details of the Peep/Manty alliance. Ideas such as carrot and stick come to mind. What are the penalties of breaking an alliance? Who and how would it be enforced between Haven and Manticore? I would suppose UH illuminates some of this.

What exactly is the continued carrot and stick vis a vis Haven and Manticore? I know, I know. Spoilers. Price of being a virgin. Drats and rats.

Condolences on your virginity. There ARE places to go to fix that.

I think treaties will hold up longer when they are interplanetary than within one world. It's just far trickier to have real disputes unless one star nation is really expansive. That's the reason the Solarian League (a treaty, framed as a constitution) survived so long.

Just because something is called the Grand Alliance doesn't change much. There were really only four members: Haven, Manticore, Beowulf, and Grayson. All had been victimized. Actually, the real fighting was between Manticore and Haven. Yes, Haven did make a play for Grayson but it was not all that long-standing.

Notice how pleased so many of the naval people were to not fight each other.

Grayson and Manticore have had issues but not with the Centrists in charge and, frankly, the Conservative branch of the opposition has pretty much been crushed except in the Lords, the Progressives who are known for being careerists will not want to be in permanent opposition, and the Liberals, particularly those working Catherine Montaigne are quietly supporting the current government.

There are blood ties between Beowulf and Manticore and no real enmity between Beowulf and Grayson or Haven.

Good trade between these planets, all in the same sector, and the benefits of being able to use the wormholes should keep people happy.

ldwechsler wrote:

cthia wrote:Oops, almost forgot. Alliances are bound by agreements. Suddenly I'm very interested in the concrete details of the Peep/Manty alliance. Ideas such as carrot and stick come to mind. What are the penalties of breaking an alliance? Who and how would it be enforced between Haven and Manticore? I would suppose UH illuminates some of this.

What exactly is the continued carrot and stick vis a vis Haven and Manticore? I know, I know. Spoilers. Price of being a virgin. Drats and rats.

Condolences on your virginity. There ARE places to go to fix that.

I think treaties will hold up longer when they are interplanetary than within one world. It's just far trickier to have real disputes unless one star nation is really expansive. That's the reason the Solarian League (a treaty, framed as a constitution) survived so long.

Just because something is called the Grand Alliance doesn't change much. There were really only four members: Haven, Manticore, Beowulf, and Grayson. All had been victimized. Actually, the real fighting was between Manticore and Haven. Yes, Haven did make a play for Grayson but it was not all that long-standing.

Notice how pleased so many of the naval people were to not fight each other.

Grayson and Manticore have had issues but not with the Centrists in charge and, frankly, the Conservative branch of the opposition has pretty much been crushed except in the Lords, the Progressives who are known for being careerists will not want to be in permanent opposition, and the Liberals, particularly those working Catherine Montaigne are quietly supporting the current government.

There are blood ties between Beowulf and Manticore and no real enmity between Beowulf and Grayson or Haven.

Good trade between these planets, all in the same sector, and the benefits of being able to use the wormholes should keep people happy.

ldwechsler wrote:Condolences on your virginity. There ARE places to go to fix that.

Thanks for the concern. They're called creep joints. My favorite is Waldenbooks where I creep in, grab the latest girl off the shelf and flop down on a sofa for some fun. But I'm waiting for a particular girl this time, her initals are UH. She's very special. Though rumor has it that she's already been around.

There certainly are advantages of the four Superpowers to maintain a generic presence. It sends a highly potent message to anyone who may have designs on attacking anywhere south of common sense. It certainly makes the Haven sector a safe sector.

The MAlign has to be cussing up a storm. "We're responsible for a Grand Alliance of the worst kind. I think I liked the League a lot better."

Simply for edification.

The entirely prudent move to avoid tech jealousy would be tranche the transfers and focus on non-military equipment. Even if Manticore and Haven decided to share everything in production, it would take Haven some time to re-engineer for their existing technical base. Manticores tech-base is running, and Haven was at a crawl, but is now walking, and about to power-walk.

The alliance only works so long as everyone alive trusts each other. Once the current generation is out, the next one is probably going to muck it all up again.