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SPOILER end of the MA

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Re: SPOILER end of the MA
Post by Sigs   » Thu May 24, 2018 1:53 pm

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ywing14 wrote:
The war could have easily gone on if the government didn't surrender. All it would have taken would be for the Mandarins to refuse to do anything. Honor stated she would start destroying other planets economies if they didn't surrender. Which is specifically what would have happened had it not been for Gaddis and Kingsford. I'm not arguing that the SLN wasn't militarily defeated. But if the SL refused to surrender what do you believe the GA would have done? How would surrender orders be sent out if they refused to surrender? Kingsford surrendered SLN in the Sol System. However he did not surrender the entire SLN. There is no way he would have told the rest of the SLN to surrender. After he agreed to Honor's terms is a whole different story.



And when the Mandarins refused to surrender, the GA goes in anyway destroys everything of value in Sol system and moves on to other core worlds which promptly surrender. Or word gets out to those core worlds and they find the Grand Fleet and surrender before the Grand Fleet goes out to find them. When the GA controls your only means of communication with the outside world eventually someone will rise and remove the Mandarins from office, it might have taken a few hours but when everyone on the planet realized that the Mandarins are willing to sacrifice the entire league to escape personal responsibility someone is bound to do something.
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Re: SPOILER end of the MA
Post by Weird Harold   » Thu May 24, 2018 3:05 pm

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Sigs wrote:
Weird Harold wrote:
Probably because they are NOT going to provide "for the galaxy," they are going to provide for those they have treaties or significant trade with. As they have done for centuries, they are going to provide commerce protect for THEIR merchant marine.

Then maybe you should expand on that. It seems that it is a vague notion that people can hide behind without providing any specifics. Is there threshold on how much trade a system does to be considered for anti-piracy and commerce protection?


I can't expand much beyond the general concept. It will be up to the Honorverse's diplomats to negotiate the treaties with each individual system or regional association.
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Re: SPOILER end of the MA
Post by Sigs   » Thu May 24, 2018 3:43 pm

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Weird Harold wrote:
Sigs wrote:Then maybe you should expand on that. It seems that it is a vague notion that people can hide behind without providing any specifics. Is there threshold on how much trade a system does to be considered for anti-piracy and commerce protection?


I can't expand much beyond the general concept. It will be up to the Honorverse's diplomats to negotiate the treaties with each individual system or regional association.

So your argument is we need an undetermined number of light warships for an undetermined number of anti-piracy patrols and commerce protection missions and it will cover an undetermined number of systems for an undetermined length of time.


Most of the shell should be able to leave the League if they wanted to and remain a stable one system navy even if they don't join the GA. What they would need is to build a military of their own for local protection, this is where the Haven's many shipyards come into play when they start selling export versions of BC and Below to help fund the GA's navy. You don't need anti-piracy to protect the shell if most of the shell worlds already have. stable local government. Give them some immediate protection, offer them military instructors and let them build their own navies for protection.Obviously it won't be easy in every system but for the most part any core/shell system that leaves the League would be able to build up enough of a navy relatively quickly a deterrent to piracy. As for the protectorates I personally think that the GA should move into as many of them as they can and try to replicate the success of Grayson as best they can. Obviously that won't be easy as the situation in Grayson is/was unique but it won't be all that hard on many worlds as the population would be coming from FF oppression and they would do anything to avoid that in the future. Either way you won't need all that many light combatants to accomplish this missions other than LAC's manned by the GA and local recruits.
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Re: SPOILER end of the MA
Post by Joat42   » Thu May 24, 2018 5:14 pm

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Weird Harold wrote:
Sigs wrote:Then maybe you should expand on that. It seems that it is a vague notion that people can hide behind without providing any specifics. Is there threshold on how much trade a system does to be considered for anti-piracy and commerce protection?

I can't expand much beyond the general concept. It will be up to the Honorverse's diplomats to negotiate the treaties with each individual system or regional association.
Sigs wrote:So your argument is we need an undetermined number of light warships for an undetermined number of anti-piracy patrols and commerce protection missions and it will cover an undetermined number of systems for an undetermined length of time.

Most of the shell should be able to leave the League if they wanted to and remain a stable one system navy even if they don't join the GA. What they would need is to build a military of their own for local protection, this is where the Haven's many shipyards come into play when they start selling export versions of BC and Below to help fund the GA's navy. You don't need anti-piracy to protect the shell if most of the shell worlds already have. stable local government. Give them some immediate protection, offer them military instructors and let them build their own navies for protection.Obviously it won't be easy in every system but for the most part any core/shell system that leaves the League would be able to build up enough of a navy relatively quickly a deterrent to piracy. As for the protectorates I personally think that the GA should move into as many of them as they can and try to replicate the success of Grayson as best they can. Obviously that won't be easy as the situation in Grayson is/was unique but it won't be all that hard on many worlds as the population would be coming from FF oppression and they would do anything to avoid that in the future. Either way you won't need all that many light combatants to accomplish this missions other than LAC's manned by the GA and local recruits.

So you are fine with building an undetermined amount of SD(P)'s but not light ships for anti-piracy patrols? It's a given that now the OFS, the SLN and some transtellars have been evicted from the Verge and the outer protectorates, piracy is going to rise. The GA needs new markets but also to stimulate the economic growth in the protectorates and the Verge, that translates directly to an increased presence of merchants that will need protection. The shell will have very little problems in the way of piracy since it's almost counted to belonging to the old league by now so I don't know why you would use that area as an basis for you argument.

Also, LAC's are only suited for policing local space - not interstellar space lane unless you are prepared to throw in CLAC's too. which are a tad more expensive than lighter units and not at all suited to anti piracy work.

Trying to replicate the Grayson success is not really feasible, we are talking about several hundred systems in the shell. I don't see how your suggestion could work economically since you are also adamant on building a shitload of SD(P)'s.

And there is no way to give specifics since we have almost no textev with specifics how many systems there are in the Verge and protectorates, how much trade is going to pick up, which systems are going to sign up the GA etc etc.

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Re: SPOILER end of the MA
Post by Theemile   » Thu May 24, 2018 5:39 pm

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Does the GA really need more SD(p)s? In the Fleet Role, what is an SD(p) for? Answer - attack of opposition systems and strategic reinforcement of friendly systems. Here we are discussing Strategic Defense - which is primarily the job of Forts.

In peace time you build infrastructure, and Forts are infrastructure. While I don't see many SD(p)s being built (though I do see some, don't get me wrong) I see a great expenditure in fortresses and their associated defenses (Moriarty firecontrol, pod shoals, LAC squadrons). Planets who will not pay for fleets for warships will pay for local forts - they provide local jobs and are a local sign of government support and protection. Besides, every fort is the equal of many SD(p)s (The dozen at Lynx were said to be the equal of 200 Manty SD(p)s), so every one built frees up a squadron or two SD(p)s for nodal defense and offensive fleets.
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RFC said "refitting a Beowulfan SD to Manticoran standards would be just as difficult as refitting a standard SLN SD to those standards. In other words, it would be cheaper and faster to build new ships."
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Re: SPOILER end of the MA
Post by ywing14   » Thu May 24, 2018 6:14 pm

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pappilon wrote:
ywing14 wrote:The war could have easily gone on if the government didn't surrender. All it would have taken would be for the Mandarins to refuse to do anything. Honor stated she would start destroying other planets economies if they didn't surrender. Which is specifically what would have happened had it not been for Gaddis and Kingsford. I'm not arguing that the SLN wasn't militarily defeated. But if the SL refused to surrender what do you believe the GA would have done? How would surrender orders be sent out if they refused to surrender? Kingsford surrendered SLN in the Sol System. However he did not surrender the entire SLN. There is no way he would have told the rest of the SLN to surrender. After he agreed to Honor's terms is a whole different story.


Loren Pechtel wrote:You're assuming there's nobody else that would have realized the folly of continuing and intervened.


ywing14 wrote:Oh I agree, I am making lots of assumptions. Who's to say the GA wouldn't offer terms the other 4 prior to destroying their infrastructure. However, when it came to who had the ability to intervene in a meaningful way I believe other than the SLN there really wasn't an apparatus that could within the SL structure. Too many of the people in the government had their fates tied to the Mandarins. SLN was probably the only group that could do it with minimum blood shed. The Ghost Hunters' didn't even feel they could go to the Attorney General and went to the Deputy.


Terms of the Epsilon Eridani Edict are something like: Once the enemy has warships in possession of the planetary orbital, She demands the immediate surrender of the planet by the government. Ther invaded government must immediately surrender or face the prospect of planetary bombardment.

I can't see how anyone could assume the Mandarins had any choice but surrender. Yes, I could see some arrogant Solly Fleet Admiral with a good force of SDs and a collier of trebuchets not standing down in some backwater planet, somewhere, but no way anyone on Earth is not going to force the Mandarins to surrender.


I just don't know that the Mandarins or others would act that rational. Look at all the irrational decisions and things the Mandarins did prior to the GA taking the Earth Orbitals.
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Re: SPOILER end of the MA
Post by ywing14   » Thu May 24, 2018 6:19 pm

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Sigs wrote:
ywing14 wrote:So if we went with you 400 number that would still be less than the combined GA fleet. Which doesn't include the Andy's would I'm sure would be thrilled to contribute ships to the destruction of the MAlign.

No one from the GA knows where the MA is located but the MA knows where almost every GA system is located with the exception of Bolthole. The GA might have a numerical superiority but the MA can pick and choose which systems to go after with little fear of repercussions.




You're right, but so far nothing the MAlign has done as indicated they plan on a direct military campaign.
And when/if they do so it would be too late. My point is that just because they haven't done any purely military operations yet does not mean that they won't do purely military operations in the future. By the time you realize they are going with the military option you are 24-36 months from getting new SD(P)'s and likely longer for any serious numbers to come out.


All of their military actions have essentially been convert in nature with the intent of stoking the fire between the GA and the SL.
And since this didn't work what is the GA to assume? The MA will dig in and hide for another 600 years until there is another large corrupt nations to try this one more time? Or do they realize that their plan was too complicated and had too many factors outside of their control so they try a more direct approach.





I don't understand your obsession with the 46 million who were killed at Beowulf for the justification for building more ships.
Because the MA has shown that they have no concern about inflicting massive casualties on civilians so you can't assume they will show restraint in the future. Are you suggesting that when the MAN sails into a system and kills tens of millions of people that would be the time to militarize?




The attack there wasn't caused by a MAlign fleet action.

Ok Got it, wait until they slaughter your civilians in fleet action before you start building a fleet... :roll:


It was caused by bombs.

And the next one might be caused by warships, the time after that by biological weapons, the time after that by crashing a cargo ship into a planet the next time might be blowing up nukes on a planet the time after that could be any number of other ways. Are you not willing to look at what could happen next and prepare or are you the type of person who deals with something only once it happens never in advance?


Additionally, how would it be the opening chapter in a long war? The war started in the Talbot sector a while ago. What happened in Beowulf was merely a continuation of that war. One in which despite a GA fleet, Mycroft, and tons of recon drones was still successful.
Yep and the war has lasted about 2 years. The war with Haven lasted 10 years, the second 3 years and that is when the two sides new where their enemies systems were with the exception of Bolthole. It has been 2 years the GA still doesn't know if the MA has 1 system or 100 systems, or if the MA has a guy in a spacesuit armed with a .22 for a navy or 1000 SD(P)'s of their own. Unless they get really really lucky and find Darius at which point it would be a long occupation.





But your own argument about what we know and what the GA knows works against you here. The GA knows to this point they have not been attacked conventionally by the MAlign. There is no indication they will be attacked conventionally with the intent to occupy any GA worlds.

So once again do they only build up their military only AFTER the MA has shown up and slaughtered their citizens? And the first indication of a conventional attack would be a conventional attack... which would be slightly late to start preparing for.







A) their faster and in the case of LACs you might be able to swarm a Lenny Det and possibly get close enough to get some useful data.
MIGHT or you might get your LAC's slaughtered for no return.


B) You need to protect your merchant marine against pirates who will likely spring up with the dissolving of the Protectorates.

Sigs wrote:Since so many people keep bringing the anti-piracy and commerce protection as the main mission the GA has to be worried about let me ask you this:

How many systems would benefit from that anti-piracy?
How many systems would benefit from commerce protection?
How many lighter combatants (BC(P) and below) would you need?
How would you keep them supplied?
How do you decide which system benefits from anti-piracy patrols and which systems do not?
How do you decide which of the potentially 600 to 1000 systems are important enough for GA patrols?
How do you sell it to the GA public when all those manpower intensive ships require a large fleet train and logistical support closer to their patrol bases and all of it costs a lot of money for little return on investment?
How do you maintain 2,000 or 3,000 BC(P) and below in hundreds of systems and patrol routes and have them in sufficient strength that the GA doesn't end up losing a few of them with all of their nice technology to the MA?
How do you react when the MA sends out a coupe of dozen Leonard Detweiler class and Shark Class ships to intercept and destroy quite a few of the patrols? Do you give up and go home? Do you double down? Do you send heavier ships you don't have to support those endangered missions?


Its one thing to say we need anti-piracy patrols and we need lighter ships to do it when the actual mission is vague and the size and scope of the mission is vague as well. But one of the most important questions is how do you prevent the GA from turning into the League and Frontier Security?





Finally C) You'll need them to scout systems to try and find Darius.

And what do you do when you find Darius? Expose your systems in order to concolidate your ships into a fleet capable of attacking Darius or wait 5 years to build the fleet?


I am not going to belabor this point with you Sigs, we've argued it through and it's clear we are always going to disagree. You just ignore the textev detailing there will be a build down. 600 SD(P)s are enough. They don't need that many to find Darius and they wouldn't need that many to take it out. BCs and FSVs could do the job just fine.
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Re: SPOILER end of the MA
Post by ywing14   » Thu May 24, 2018 6:22 pm

ywing14
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kzt wrote:So here's a nice comforting thought:

The MA tech guys said they were a year from reproducing the micro fusion reactor. Consider this on a graser torp, which already is designed to remain passive and awaiting an appropriate target for many months. Particularity as there doesn't seem to be any reason that you can't cold start fusion reactors if you have enough stored power, it's just not the way that the RMN does it.


True
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Re: SPOILER end of the MA
Post by Weird Harold   » Thu May 24, 2018 6:54 pm

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Joat42 wrote:Also, LAC's are only suited for policing local space - not interstellar space lane unless you are prepared to throw in CLAC's too. which are a tad more expensive than lighter units and not at all suited to anti piracy work.


Actually, I think LACs and CLACs are admirably suited to anti-piracy work. Even FSVs with LAC support modules, would work well as convoy escorts.

A convoy escort would need something with energy weapons for protection inside a grav wave, but Shrike or Katana style LACs can operate effectively in hyper-space once a CLAC or FSV (or freighter with a LC support module) lifts them over the hyper-wall. A LAC shell around a convoy in N-space would be far more effective than one or two conventional convoy escorts -- more eyes in more places.

The LAC squadrons from a full-on CLAC, would be the best way to cover a large volume when searching a system for pirate activity.

It would depend on the size of the convoy whether it would be cost effective to provide LAC escorts with FSVs, CLACs, or freighter modules. For some convoys, a Roland division or older CL division might be what's needed; for others, a CLAC and a couple BCs and might be what's needed.
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Re: SPOILER end of the MA
Post by Weird Harold   » Thu May 24, 2018 7:01 pm

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Sigs wrote:
Weird Harold wrote:I can't expand much beyond the general concept. It will be up to the Honorverse's diplomats to negotiate the treaties with each individual system or regional association.


So your argument is we need an undetermined number of light warships for an undetermined number of anti-piracy patrols and commerce protection missions and it will cover an undetermined number of systems for an undetermined length of time.


My argument is that the Honorverse diplomats will determine what, where, when, how, and why the GA -- or someone else, like the RF or MARS -- will provide defense or commerce protection. There is not enough textev information to say more than that the SKM and GA have expressed an intent to make trade and mutual defense treaties to ensure peace. There are only very rough estimates of numbers of systems and what their status is now or might be in the future.
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Answers! I got lots of answers!

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