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SPOILER end of the MA

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Re: SPOILER end of the MA
Post by pappilon   » Tue May 08, 2018 5:07 pm

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n7axw wrote:But Sigs, the GA already has a fleet of SD(p)s... IIRC, the number we have been using is about 800 units. There is no reason to believe that I can see that what is on hand doesn't represent massive overkill.

Nor do we have any assurance at all that we can take those SDs and properly use them against the Lenny Dets as long as the issue with stealth continues.

In short, what in the dickens do you think you're going to be able to accomplish?

As far as building light units, the mission is easy to define...commerce protection, anti piracy work, showing the flag, selling to systems in the Verge for maintaining order on their own turf... missions like Zavala's mission to Saltash or Terekov's to Mobius. In short, any mission that doesn't require a sledge hammer. I would like to see lots of lighter units...with streak drives and Mark 16s...

During the Havenite wars, building SD(p)s at a breakneak pace made sense for both sides since they were trying to survive against an enemy whose capabilities were pretty much out in the open and known.

But that is not the situation in the here and now. We haven't established that an SD(p) can even survive in combat against what the MA can throw at it from stealth...which makes building more of them a case of "doing something" even if we have no idea that the something we are doing is the right something.

Don

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Points, all valid. The other one is The Republic of Haven 2.0 is facing exactly the same enemy with exactly the same unknowns as Manticore. Yet Eloise Pritchard, our BFF and system ppesident has flatly stated that her government will not can notmaintain its wartime pace of construction. There are still bad memories of the Legislaturalists and the Navy being used to suppress legitimate greivances against it.

So, if Manticore wishes to pay for hulls, fine we will build them, but our inventory is just plain big enough.

Whatever the consequences in 50-100-1,000 years the political reality of now rules. And we'll deal with crossing the bridge to Tarabithia when we get to it, because, quite frankly, we can't cross it before we get to it.
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The imagination has to be trained into foresight and empathy.
Ursula K. LeGuinn

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Re: SPOILER end of the MA
Post by Loren Pechtel   » Wed May 09, 2018 8:20 pm

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Something else to keep in mind: An attack on Darius doesn't need as many ships as defending it would.

Remember what happened at Ganymede: Honor could hyper out when faced with the vast missile storm, her targets had no such option.

While GA missiles don't work as well fired from beyond the hyper limit they do work, anything not dangerously close to a planet can be destroyed. The whole face of attacking a planet has changed.
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Re: SPOILER end of the MA
Post by pappilon   » Thu May 10, 2018 8:39 pm

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Loren Pechtel wrote:Something else to keep in mind: An attack on Darius doesn't need as many ships as defending it would.

Remember what happened at Ganymede: Honor could hyper out when faced with the vast missile storm, her targets had no such option.

While GA missiles don't work as well fired from beyond the hyper limit they do work, anything not dangerously close to a planet can be destroyed. The whole face of attacking a planet has changed.



And its Darius So its kind of like attacking Masada, right? What's a few hundred thousand zealots either way? Especially in light of Yawata crossing and Beowulf. Yes, I know, "We're the Grand Alliance, we have morals therefore we are not as ruthless as you people are."
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The imagination has to be trained into foresight and empathy.
Ursula K. LeGuinn

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Re: SPOILER end of the MA
Post by Peregrinator   » Fri May 11, 2018 12:36 pm

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Loren Pechtel wrote:Something else to keep in mind: An attack on Darius doesn't need as many ships as defending it would.

Remember what happened at Ganymede: Honor could hyper out when faced with the vast missile storm, her targets had no such option.

While GA missiles don't work as well fired from beyond the hyper limit they do work, anything not dangerously close to a planet can be destroyed. The whole face of attacking a planet has changed.

I'm sure the space around Darius is thick with Lenny Dets.
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Re: SPOILER end of the MA
Post by Theemile   » Fri May 11, 2018 2:10 pm

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Peregrinator wrote:
Loren Pechtel wrote:Something else to keep in mind: An attack on Darius doesn't need as many ships as defending it would.

Remember what happened at Ganymede: Honor could hyper out when faced with the vast missile storm, her targets had no such option.

While GA missiles don't work as well fired from beyond the hyper limit they do work, anything not dangerously close to a planet can be destroyed. The whole face of attacking a planet has changed.

I'm sure the space around Darius is thick with Lenny Dets.


Now - no. Most, if not all are still under construction; it's only been 12 months since OB, and the massive ships were only 1/2 completed (or less) then. In 5 years - probably.
******
RFC said "refitting a Beowulfan SD to Manticoran standards would be just as difficult as refitting a standard SLN SD to those standards. In other words, it would be cheaper and faster to build new ships."
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Re: SPOILER end of the MA
Post by n7axw   » Fri May 11, 2018 2:16 pm

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Peregrinator wrote:
Loren Pechtel wrote:Something else to keep in mind: An attack on Darius doesn't need as many ships as defending it would.

Remember what happened at Ganymede: Honor could hyper out when faced with the vast missile storm, her targets had no such option.

While GA missiles don't work as well fired from beyond the hyper limit they do work, anything not dangerously close to a planet can be destroyed. The whole face of attacking a planet has changed.

I'm sure the space around Darius is thick with Lenny Dets.


At the time of OB, the Lenny Dets weren't ready and the attacks were carried out with the smaller prototypes.

So... the sky is not filled with Lenny Dets...yet. But if it takes too long to find Darius, it eventually will be.

Don

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When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: SPOILER end of the MA
Post by pappilon   » Sat May 12, 2018 4:47 am

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Loren Pechtel wrote:Something else to keep in mind: An attack on Darius doesn't need as many ships as defending it would.

Remember what happened at Ganymede: Honor could hyper out when faced with the vast missile storm, her targets had no such option.

While GA missiles don't work as well fired from beyond the hyper limit they do work, anything not dangerously close to a planet can be destroyed. The whole face of attacking a planet has changed.


Peregrinator wrote:I'm sure the space around Darius is thick with Lenny Dets.


n7axw wrote:At the time of OB, the Lenny Dets weren't ready and the attacks were carried out with the smaller prototypes.

So... the sky is not filled with Lenny Dets...yet. But if it takes too long to find Darius, it eventually will be.

Don

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Which leads us to ... what, exactly? Their 1000year plan of conquest is shot to shit.

Best case Scenario, the GA keeps their force level where it is for the next 5 years, The Maya/Erwhon/Torch Alliance completes however many ships they want, and the SL 2.0 is much smaller with the same obsolete navy they had pre Beowulf, and the rest of the former league has small however modern SDFs.

Worst Case Scenario. The League 2.0 retains most of the old league planets. Modernizes its fleet and becomes a much more able fighting force, realizes that "Some Other Guys" are out there and are cooperating with the GA.

The GA finds a way to detect the Spider, rendering the Lenny Ds fairly worthless, Keeps its hull numbers relatively at the same level but builds entire new classes of ships taking advantage of what they confiscated from Ganymede, Keyhole II, the streak, and much improved sensors, etc.

GA shares lots of latest tech with MAya/Erewhon and Anderman Empire who build as much fleet as they can afford.
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The imagination has to be trained into foresight and empathy.
Ursula K. LeGuinn

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Re: SPOILER end of the MA
Post by ldwechsler   » Sat May 12, 2018 5:46 pm

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pappilon wrote:
Loren Pechtel wrote:Something else to keep in mind: An attack on Darius doesn't need as many ships as defending it would.

Remember what happened at Ganymede: Honor could hyper out when faced with the vast missile storm, her targets had no such option.

While GA missiles don't work as well fired from beyond the hyper limit they do work, anything not dangerously close to a planet can be destroyed. The whole face of attacking a planet has changed.


Peregrinator wrote:I'm sure the space around Darius is thick with Lenny Dets.


Everyone seems certain of more battles. The smart move for MAlign is to be quiet. They can easily spread their ideas to more planets. As noted by RFC himself, there is not all that big a difference in terms of the genetics any more.

With the large science and tech base on Darius, a lot more can be done in terms of advances. Come up with some real advances and a good ad campaign and people will come to you to handle procreation needs. Quietly add in your key elements. After a while, a good hunk of the population can be A line.

That leads the GA with few hints as to where headquarters are. I would bet that if a GA fleet comes in, they will find an advanced tech planet with no Dets in sight. So they will go away.


n7axw wrote:At the time of OB, the Lenny Dets weren't ready and the attacks were carried out with the smaller prototypes.

So... the sky is not filled with Lenny Dets...yet. But if it takes too long to find Darius, it eventually will be.

Don

-


Which leads us to ... what, exactly? Their 1000year plan of conquest is shot to shit.

Best case Scenario, the GA keeps their force level where it is for the next 5 years, The Maya/Erwhon/Torch Alliance completes however many ships they want, and the SL 2.0 is much smaller with the same obsolete navy they had pre Beowulf, and the rest of the former league has small however modern SDFs.

Worst Case Scenario. The League 2.0 retains most of the old league planets. Modernizes its fleet and becomes a much more able fighting force, realizes that "Some Other Guys" are out there and are cooperating with the GA.

The GA finds a way to detect the Spider, rendering the Lenny Ds fairly worthless, Keeps its hull numbers relatively at the same level but builds entire new classes of ships taking advantage of what they confiscated from Ganymede, Keyhole II, the streak, and much improved sensors, etc.

GA shares lots of latest tech with MAya/Erewhon and Anderman Empire who build as much fleet as they can afford.
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Re: SPOILER end of the MA
Post by Sigs   » Sun May 13, 2018 2:15 am

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ywing14 wrote:
Yeah the War is over with the Largest Fleet in known space. Now they can build down and worry about locating the MAlign who's fleet is much smaller than the GAs.

Right from the get go everyone knew who the real threat was, they definitely did not need all that many SD(P)s to destroy the entire SLN. They knew that the war with the League was a sideshow.



This is supported by the textev that the GA has at this time. Yes, they would have manned them by racking up debt out the butt. But they don't need to do that now and they can't justify doing that.
There are about 7 million Manticoran justification to man those SD(P)'s. Also 46 million justifications for Beowulf. The MA used stealth and bombs to kill those people this time but the other 100 or so billion might not be the recipients of stealth attacks and bombs, they may be on the receiving end of whatever the large but unknown number of Leonard Detweiler-class ships are giving.


It's the whole point we've all been trying to make to you. All the evidence in the book that the GA has clearly indicates the MAlign has a small fleet, additionally the GA still has approximately 600 SD(P)s when you combine all the components together.
All the evidence that the GA has amounts to guesses and assumptions. The GA is trying to apply their logic and their reason to people who are working from different start point.





They don't need anymore at this moment. They've been at full war footing for like 40 years. People want a break.
Ok so at what moment do they need more? What if over the next 5 years the MA build 250 SD(P)'s of their own? Or 500? The problem with your argument is that the vast majority of the "facts" and "Evidence" the GA has is based on assumption, they don't even know where the enemy is located...

Janacek and High Ridge did not know about Bolthole when they started their builddown, they based their builddown on assumptions that their technological superiority is enough to keep Haven in check and that if things turned they would have time to finish the 73 SD(P)'s in Grendelsbane as well as their ships in Manticore yards, it obviously did not workout quite as they assumed it would. What everyone seems to be suggesting here is to cut back even further while increasing the commitments to the RMN manyfold while fully knowing that the enemy has a Bolthole of it's own with unknown industrial capabilities... They may be able to build 50 SD(P)'s every 4 years or they may be able to build 500 SD(P)'s every 4 years. After all the MA has been planning and acting on their plan for several hundred years, what are the chances they didn't plan on having the capabilities to build a fleet of their own?



The GA isn't sitting on it's hands, its trying to locate the MAlign and push it's own R&D.

And if I were the MA I wouldn't be sitting on my hands either, I would be building as many Leonard Detweiler-class ships as I can manage and every new generation would be an improvement of the old. At the same time the RF would be expanding their fleet with the industrial might of 11 moderately to heavily industrialized systems.


What it's also not going to do is waste money on building SD(P)s it can't justify. Tell what about the attacks the MAlign as perpetrated that indicated they have a large fleet presence?

What indicated that they don't? Just because they are behaving in a way that leads YOU to believe that they have a small or non existent fleet does not mean that it is true as they may be operating from a different point of view then you and with a different set of beliefs. And even if they did have only 50 or 100 SD(P)'s of their own within the next 5 years, that could change when they account for the 11 RF systems.
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Re: SPOILER end of the MA
Post by Sigs   » Sun May 13, 2018 2:39 am

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ywing14 wrote:
You're the one who stated Hypatia was essentially part of the GA in your previous statement and then also stated the SL hadn't lost any systems. In fact both Beowulf's and Hypatia's referendum for succession passed.
Referendum may have passed but Hypatia had not officially aligned with the GA at that point. But that is irrelevant because both Beowulf and Hypatia remained under the control of GA even if Hypatia was protect only by a single destroyer.

[quote[They will have a fleet. the GA has at least 600 SDs at the moment. it doesn't need all 600 to destroy Darius. Maybe 100 SDs and a fleet colliers stuffed with RD drones and Apollo pods. [/quote] Based on what evidence? Do you think the Ma will stop improving and strengthening their position from this point on? Are they going to stop building ships? Stop researching? Stop fortifying Darius?


But if they can't detect the spider drive it won't matter if they send 100 or 1000 SDs to Darius. I don't understand what you do or don't consider a fleet? 8th Fleet only had a squadron of SDs in it and still reeked havoc on the RHN for a while.
Because they were attacking systems that had weak defences. They were stopped by powerful mobile forces, something the GA will not be able to do since they will have twice the territory of Haven with the same number of ships and the territory in question would be separated by vast distances. What you call a fleet is irrelevant, calling a squadron a fleet does not change it's capabilities any more than calling a battalion a division. Having 50 Fleets of 6 SD(P)'s does not make your Navy more powerful then the other guy who has 1 fleet of 300 SD(P)s. And it is no different then the Navy that has 50 Squadrons of 6 SD(P)'s.

Besides I would venture a guess that once a ship with Spider drive fires it would no longer be all that invisible.


You make it sound like there are literally thousands of MAlign SDs secretly waiting to invade every single GA star system at the moment.
With a good fleet train they can make their SD(P)'s look significantly more numerical then they are. All I am saying is that there are 200+ GA systems al expecting to be defended to a certain degree. Fixed defences can be compromised if you give the other side enough time to study them, at that point if you don't have the means to reinforce threatened systems you might lose them. There might not be all that much in terms of choices out there at the end of UH but that might not be so true 5 or 10 years down the road. The MA attacks and the GA does not react then Talbott might decide to seek assistance from others, like the RF or a rebuild SLN.


There is no evidence to support that,
There is not evidence to support that it's true and there is no evidence to support that it isn't true.

but there is evidence to support the contrary.
Such as? What is this evidence you speak of?


Maybe the GA will build a few SDs a year something like 2 or 3 squadrons. But there's no reason to build 600-800 SDs in addition to what they already have. Lighter units are what they need to scout systems and escort commerce. Piracy is going to off the hook in the shell and protectorates.
The SLN which still exists and is still a powerful naval force to everyone but the GA can be tapped for that, after all if they created the mess the GA can use them to clean it up with strict oversight of course. The GA does not need to turn into Frontier Fleet they need to encourage the SLN to assist and at the same time encourage the shell and protectorates to maintain sufficient forces to stop pirates, which shouldn't require all that much firepower...
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